Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[notme]

Sure, but we'll see it hit 108 first.

Quote.
Just 'cause.  

Like I said... we'll see it hit 108 before we see it hit 140

[1715344503]

1715344503

[1715344503]

1715344503

[Abandon]

Slightly oversold:

[nmersulypnem]

Anyone seeing a trend with these 5 am dumps?

ASICMiner selling... China time zone.

Interesting notion ...

During this transition to ASIC mining technology, one entity - ASICMiner - has a very large share of mined coins. Perhaps they have more motivation to sell than the multitude of individual GPU miners that have been effectively replaced.

Lots of slippage when the dump occurs. There are well known techniques to slice orders and time them for more efficient executions, e.g. wait for bids to fill back in.  Why don't dumpers use them?

Because they are afraid of the other dumpers.  If they could all work in unison, they would - but it's like the Dilemma of the Commons, the one who dumps first gets the best price.  Once one or two of them break ranks, they trip over each other trying to sell fast, and it results in a rapid crash...   Remember, 99% of this market is still speculation.

[niothor]

[oda.krell]

awww, look at the bears coming out of the woodwork... agreeing with each other how obvious all of this was.

'k. Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction where this trend takes us, short term. Everything else ("Silk road ... yadda yadda ... Bitcoin economy... wasn't stable in May after all") is just cheap talk.

I'll begin: within the next 24 hours, price won't go significantly below 100. If it falls below 100, it will rebound sharply to a value above 100 shortly afterwards. More likely though, we'll continue trading around 110.

Your turn

I'm not sure how making a post here puts any money where anyone's mouth is LOL.

I appreciate reading other people's analyses because we all have our own biases, and it's good to have them challenged. IMO, well considered opinions in combination with a quantitative target are much more valuable than meaningless short term price predictions pulled out of the derrière.

FTFY

... and it's "putting your money where your mouth is" because I go on record making a prediction based on my opinion, which gives someone else the chance to dig through my post history in a month from now, checking what my track record is.

Think of like that: if you don't make any predictions, you'll never be proven wrong. How boring.

[adamstgBit]

Slightly oversold:

waiting for Heavily oversold  

[notme]

Slightly oversold:

waiting for Heavily oversold  

+1

[Rampion]

Man, it's cold in here, let's heat this room a bit...

[Jozzaboy]

God damn, my wire of money into Bitstamp is going to take days... I WANT TO BUY NOW!!

[ThatDGuy]

Actual lol! Bears on parade today (this week?)

[oda.krell]

Guys, I wanted to make you a favour... So I sold a little coins at $108.5... Just because I wanted the price to rebound UP, I know you feel bad when our beloved BTC crashes



EDIT: you have to know my story first... I'm pretty good buying at the bottom (most of my bids are filled just before the price rebounds UP UP UP), but I'm terrible selling low (50% of the times I sell coins, it's at the very bottom... It happened to me when we touched $79 and happened again on Monday when I sold at $118ish and then price rebounded to $122ish.... Lucky me I only sell "play coins", the vast majority of my stash is in cold storage for good).

So, hopefully my stunt works, and $108.5 was the bottom for today. Placed bids with the fiat I got for that coins all the way till $91ish, let's see how it works out this time

hehehe, nice story. but sorry Rampion, no trend reversal yet IMO. but I don't mind being proven wrong about this

[Pale Phoenix]

It's not just that.  Low volume is an indication that the actual Bitcoin economy isn't running.  The only activity I see on the depth window are the last remaining trading bots.  I mean, how is someone supposed to get a few bucks into MtGox to buy something on SilkRoad or wherever?  The Bitcoin price went from being 99% speculation, to being 99.999% speculation.  I'd love to know how SilkRoad sales have been impacted with the closure of LR, MtGox-Dwolla, etc...  At this rate, it's a long long way down...

I follow r/SilkRoad for a bit of insight into that economy, and outside of vendor reviews, the most frequent problems posted relate to getting money into coins. Many are using BitInstant and Coinbase now, but there are other more underground services, such as Blue Sky Traders, that are also popular.

I'm not aware of an accurate way to gauge the volume on SR or BMR, but I don't detect a falloff in the anecdotal stats I check. SR had significant downtime about a month or so ago though.

[nmersulypnem]

awww, look at the bears coming out of the woodwork... agreeing with each other how obvious all of this was.

'k. Put your money where your mouth is and make a prediction where this trend takes us, short term. Everything else ("Silk road ... yadda yadda ... Bitcoin economy... wasn't stable in May after all") is just cheap talk.

I'll begin: within the next 24 hours, price won't go significantly below 100. If it falls below 100, it will rebound sharply to a value above 100 shortly afterwards. More likely though, we'll continue trading around 110.

Your turn

I'm not sure how making a post here puts any money where anyone's mouth is LOL.

I appreciate reading other people's analyses because we all have our own biases, and it's good to have them challenged. IMO, well considered opinions in combination with a quantitative target are much more valuable than meaningless short term price predictions pulled out of the derrière.

FTFY

... and it's "putting your money where your mouth is" because I go on record making a prediction based on my opinion, which gives someone else the chance to dig through my post history in a month from now, checking what my track record is.

Think of like that: if you don't make any predictions, you'll never be proven wrong. How boring.

That isn't putting your money where your mouth is (since you're not actually putting down any money).   ...that's just putting your mouth where your mouth is.

[lucas.sev]

Was that wall at 105 always there? How much of it is fake if not?

[Rampion]

Dumping for good...



And time to "paint walls"...

[lucas.sev]

339BTC market buy, 256 market sell 1 sec afterwards, did someone miss a button? 

[Pale Phoenix]

That isn't putting your money where your mouth is (since you're not actually putting down any money).   ...that's just putting your mouth where your mouth is.

Thanks, you put it much better than I did.

[niothor]

Still 36k coins till 100. I certainly doubt it can go that low.


But still.... don't underestimate bears

[Coinseeker]

Falling knives...no match for me.  How do you recifiy a $116.xx position, when the markets crashing and with no fiat left?  

BTC -> Ripple -> Sell BTC for XRP -> Sell XRP for USD.  Voila...you have fiat for the panic sell and you lost merely crumbs in the process.  At current prices, it's looking like the move of the century.

 

I just had to share that because that was absolutely insane what I did...and it totally worked.  

[Rampion]

Testing $105ish today? I think as soon as we touch it we will go through it like a hot knife through butter.

Next level to be tested will be $90ish, and next REAL support $80ish. Anyhow, as Oda said earlier I think testing $80 won't happen too soon. But honestly, I think the sooner the better. I wouldn't mind at all going rapidly to $50 and double bottoming it hard, with big volume. That would mean that the only way is UP, slowly, but UP. IMO that's the best case scenario for the bulls. Breaking ATH during this year is not happening IMO. And a rally to $165 won't happen any soon neither.