Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[samson]

panic buy happening right now

Looks like a bot painting the tape to me.

At one point a few minutes ago an 800+ BTC bidwall appeared on $98 and was immediately sold into forming a new top.

Someone's meddling with the price by the looks of it.

[lebing]

As much as I would LOVE it to go to 50, what makes you people think its not a repeat from 3rd of May?

Huh? Why would you love that?

Because this will mean that bubble is largely over and I can buy bitcoins at a price that likely will not halve, split the wallet file into three separate files and forget about checking damn clark moody more often than facebook for a year or two.

So basically you want the whole Bitcoin economy to drop 50% so you can buy a few cheap coins. Did i read that right?

You read 100% correct. There is no Bitcoin economy. (except for silkroad of course) I hope you are not another of hippies preaching that.

The only reason why somebody would go and exchange fiat for bitcoin right now (not counting speculation, store of value) is to spend it on Silkroad. Nobody in right mind would go and exchange it to btc only to buy something they could have bought instantly with traditional methods. And the only thing that they can't, are silkroad goods. YES if you already have bitcoins then you might use them on other stuff, if you mine, you will use them. But this is minority of people. I'm talking about general public. I'm repeating myself but I enjoy seeing idealists try to desperately justify their opinion.

Lucas, I dont read this thread much but when I do I come in here and read something and its always you making some statement when you have absolutely 0 to back it up. Have you even heard of bitpay? Do you know how much they are processing alone? All the way back in march (before the peak of the bubble even) they were adding thousands of new merchants a month and processing over 5 million in orders... per month. http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html This is only one payment processor (theres no way to actually gauge the total, but you can be sure its far higher than that when you consider its only one processor among thousands of others.

TLDR. Less typing out of your ass, more reading.

[N12]

Lucas, I dont read this thread much but when I do I come in here and read something and its always you making some statement when you have absolutely 0 to back it up. Have you even heard of bitpay? Do you know how much they are processing alone? All the way back in march (before the peak of the bubble even) they were adding thousands of new merchants a month and processing over 5 million in orders... per month. http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html This is only one payment processor (theres no way to actually gauge the total, but you can be sure its far higher than that when you consider its only one processor among thousands of others.

TLDR. Less typing out of your ass, more reading.

As I said, Bitpay figures are largely inflated by Avalon sales. Actual commerce figures from bitcoinstore, Reddit Gold and Humble Bundle show the harsh truth.

[etaty]

Buy time  

[niothor]

Exactly right. Bitcoin has never been a billion dollar market in the first place. The figures most people are touting from Bitpay are hugely inflated because of mining equipment, and the evidence like data on sales of Humble Bundle, Reddit Gold and bitcoinstore suggest that people don't use Bitcoin as a currency in any significant way.

We'll I will quote this every single time I try to make my point.
I'll let you have some part of the treatment I got when saying nobody is using it except .....

[SGExodus]

Lucas, I dont read this thread much but when I do I come in here and read something and its always you making some statement when you have absolutely 0 to back it up. Have you even heard of bitpay? Do you know how much they are processing alone? All the way back in march (before the peak of the bubble even) they were adding thousands of new merchants a month and processing over 5 million in orders... per month. http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html This is only one payment processor (theres no way to actually gauge the total, but you can be sure its far higher than that when you consider its only one processor among thousands of others.

TLDR. Less typing out of your ass, more reading.

As I said, Bitpay figures are largely inflated by Avalon sales. Actual commerce figures from bitcoinstore, Reddit Gold and Humble Bundle show the harsh truth.

What has Bitpay got anything to do with Avalon sales?  Avalon sales just accept bitcoin payment directly.. there is no need for bitpay to be in the equation at all.

[N12]

What has Bitpay got anything to do with Avalon sales?  Avalon sales just accept bitcoin payment directly.. there is no need for bitpay to be in the equation at all.

AFAIK they accepted it in the past for at least one of their batches and accounted for the majority of Bitpay's volume on that month.

[lebing]

Lucas, I dont read this thread much but when I do I come in here and read something and its always you making some statement when you have absolutely 0 to back it up. Have you even heard of bitpay? Do you know how much they are processing alone? All the way back in march (before the peak of the bubble even) they were adding thousands of new merchants a month and processing over 5 million in orders... per month. http://blog.bitpay.com/2013/04/bitpay-eclipses-silk-road-in-bitcoin.html This is only one payment processor (theres no way to actually gauge the total, but you can be sure its far higher than that when you consider its only one processor among thousands of others.

TLDR. Less typing out of your ass, more reading.

As I said, Bitpay figures are largely inflated by Avalon sales. Actual commerce figures from bitcoinstore, Reddit Gold and Humble Bundle show the harsh truth.

Right, because buying things in the bitcoin economy doesn't count.

[lucas.sev]

Lebing, you answer question from my post?

[N12]

You will find that the sales volume on miners will largely depend on the profitability of an ASIC which depends on difficulty/price. Historically, the miners' profit margin always went near zero or even to negative values during major corrections (difficulty itself went down due to this), so, I would not count on this sort of gold rush shovel "economic activity" to endure for very long, certainly not at volumes of the past.

What has Bitpay got anything to do with Avalon sales?  Avalon sales just accept bitcoin payment directly.. there is no need for bitpay to be in the equation at all.

AFAIK they accepted it in the past for at least one of their batches and accounted for the majority of Bitpay's volume on that month.

Bit-Pay was Avalons bitcoin processor for batch1: $1200x300= 360k
Walletbit for batch2: $1500x600= 900k

Hm, I had the impression it was 2-3 million. It's a while ago. Batch 2 maybe?

[ChartBuddy]

[N12]

If i recall correctly, batch 3 was 600 units @ 5k each (3M)

Yep, that's what I had in the back of my mind. Thanks, so they were indeed responsible for 3 out of 5 million of Bitpay's volume that month.

[Jaroslaw]

bull trap

[creativex]

What has Bitpay got anything to do with Avalon sales?  Avalon sales just accept bitcoin payment directly.. there is no need for bitpay to be in the equation at all.

AFAIK they accepted it in the past for at least one of their batches and accounted for the majority of Bitpay's volume on that month.

Bit-Pay was Avalons bitcoin processor for batch1: $1200x300= 360k
Walletbit for batch2: $1500x600= 900k

That's not correct. Paysius (mis)handled Avalon b1, Walletbit (mis)handled Avalon b2, and Bitpay handled Avalon b3(perfectly).

None of this changes the fact that Bitpay is not an accurate overall measure of the Bitcoin economy IMO. I see the role of companies like bitspend.net continuing to expand, and this will create Bitcoin traffic that cannot be measured by looking at Bitpay's books.

[lucas.sev]

....

I would like to hear you undermine this claim of mine:

The only reason why somebody would go and exchange fiat for bitcoin right now (not counting speculation, store of value) is to spend it on Silkroad. Nobody in right mind would go and exchange it to btc only to buy something they could have bought instantly with traditional methods. And the only thing that they can't, are silkroad goods. YES if you already have bitcoins then you might use them on other stuff, if you mine, you will use them. But this is minority of people. I'm talking about general public.

[zby]

Looks like there was the full set of 5 waves down - now 3 up?  The forum is all doom and gloom - I guess the down trend at least temporarily has used all its ammunition.

[SimonJones]

....

I would like to hear you undermine this claim of mine:

The only reason why somebody would go and exchange fiat for bitcoin right now (not counting speculation, store of value) is to spend it on Silkroad. Nobody in right mind would go and exchange it to btc only to buy something they could have bought instantly with traditional methods. And the only thing that they can't, are silkroad goods. YES if you already have bitcoins then you might use them on other stuff, if you mine, you will use them. But this is minority of people. I'm talking about general public.

I have actually bought legal stuff worth $2000+ with Bitcoins (that i bought with fiat) and it was not payable by traditional methods. I never mined any Bitcoins. The world is big

[vokain]

[dan99]

Will we break 100 today?

I hope it will stay above $100 soon. 

[Its About Sharing]

Looks like there was the full set of 5 waves down - now 3 up?  The forum is all doom and gloom - I guess the down trend at least temporarily has used all its ammunition.

I don't know elliot waves that well (you are talking about them?). Would love for you to finish your thought as to where we are regarding their interpretation.

Regarding todays down move, finally we got that high volume hammer I was asking for publicly.  
The chart certainly doesn't line up good with the bottoms though, but todays pattern shows some support. I would say we go sideways (if not up) from here before another move down.
It all comes down to supply and demand. I am still in the positive and if we go down much more I look for a bottom and start to pick up a few more BTC's.
I feel high value is in the $50-$70 range as we shot up quick and are still building infrastructure. But it is coming. We have a very very small cap considering where we might be in the next few years.
(So the current price still holds value but I can imagine outsiders thinking "$100 for a virtual coin!" as they have no real idea about what this revolution is (and it is still just starting, though not all of
it will be about profit, rather about more concurrent technologies coming from the Blockchain.)


IAS