Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

So with cboe futures on Sunday, I'm thinking coiled spring ready to blow. Not sure of direction, though I'm betting on up... Either way it's going to be insane.

Agree or no?

It could be buy the rumor, sell the news... but in the longer term it is certainly bullish... because there is almost no way that these traditional financial fucks have prepared themselves enough BTC to really engage with this new instrument.

But don't you think it's the traditional financial fucks as you call them -- are the ones that largely have driven the price from 8k to 16k, in an effort to have a supply on side to hedge against the Big Short that will come?

Don't you think their plan was to accumulate as much as they could before futures go live?

If it was a coiled spring ready to burst upwards, wouldn't they be sitting on their cash right now and our price would be $8,500?

I hate to say it but I'm betting on downward pressure first.  Maybe not right away but I think it hits $12k before it hits $20k

Rather than giving an accurate assessment, you sound like you are unduly sympathetic to the plights of traditional financial fucks.

You also seem to give traditional financial fucks much more credit than they likely deserve in the supposed bitcoin "preparedness" arena.

Furthermore, $12k is hardly any kind of correction, given our past performance and given the current dynamics, so get real.  

Of course we could easily correct to $12k and even to $10k and it is within reasonable BTC price movements, especially when we have our current level of trade volume and seemingly ongoing passion, yet the current BTC price pressures remain UPPITY.. whether that is coming from traditional financial fucks or more broader-based.. and really I doubt that traditional financial fucks are driving this mad BTC price machine as much as you seem to be anticipating... good luck with your downward bets.    

Wow you are pretty condescending and arrogant.  Who said I was betting money on this?  I rather said this is what I think is going to happen.  Again, why so much anger at someone simply referencing their opinion?  Christ.

It seems that I have already explained within my comment about how you have stated a ridiculous position, and sure, maybe you really believe it, and good for you.

One thing we know with a considerable amount of certainty is that we have a price battle going on right now, which is likely to continue to cause and exacerbate already existing bitcoin volatility... and also seems likely to the upside, but nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia... and furthermore, there seems to be little to no reason to defend traditional financial fucks because historically they have been fucking a lot of folks for a lot of years (so even though some of them might be nice people, the institution is full of manipulation, and bitcoin seems intended to put a considerable check on these already referred to traditional financial fucks).  For some reason you seem to either want to sugar coat this or in my humble bumble (or not so humble) opinion, you are seeming to empathize too much with them.

[1714616874]

1714616874

[1714616874]

1714616874

[1714616874]

1714616874

[1714616874]

1714616874

[gentlemand]

Please place your price predictions for the opening price of each of the three futures contracts.  Note:   I am still trying to work out the Settlement Date in each month. If someone has that info I will edit this post.

1 Dunno.

2 Really dunno.

3 My brain hurts.

[HairyMaclairy]

My prediction for opening price 24 hours from now.

XBT/F8 January:  $16,000

XBT/G8 February:  $17,000

XBT/H8 March:  $18,000

[xhomerx10]

Who decided that Bitcoin would be denominated in Y and Y weren't we consulted? 

You will have to find out if the universe is deterministic or not to answer that question:

http://steemit.com/science/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-25-computer-science-proves-the-existence-of-a-variable-known-as-god-but-not-what-god-actually-is

 

 Mindblowing

[bones261]

Who decided that Bitcoin would be denominated in Y and Y weren't we consulted?  

You will have to find out if the universe is deterministic or not to answer that question:

http://steemit.com/science/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-25-computer-science-proves-the-existence-of-a-variable-known-as-god-but-not-what-god-actually-is

Of course the universe is not deterministic. It's called quantum mechanics. Unless you want to consider things falling within certain probabilities deterministic.

If you are locked inside an internal system with an external system surrounding you, it can still be deterministic and you're doing the equivalent of being played like a VCR tape to see predetermined events.  Whatever is at the top of the hierarchy takes precedent.

I'm an agnostic. However, if I were to adopt a Protestant Christian belief system, I am more inclined to go with Wesley than Calvin.

[xhomerx10]

Who decided that Bitcoin would be denominated in Y and Y weren't we consulted? 

You will have to find out if the universe is deterministic or not to answer that question:

http://steemit.com/science/@r0achtheunsavory/the-r0ach-report-25-computer-science-proves-the-existence-of-a-variable-known-as-god-but-not-what-god-actually-is

Of course the universe is not deterministic. It's called quantum mechanics. Unless you want to consider things falling within certain probabilities deterministic.

 Okay, that's enough.  I'm going to have to put you guys on ignore because I have no idea what you're talking about.

[JayJuanGee]

Was Gemini hacked or is this just scheduled maintenance like their status page claims?

https://status.gemini.com/incidents/k4qvyflfmm24

Yep.. it is surely taking them a long time to get back online, and they have been having quite a few of these issues in recent weeks, which does not bode well for them in terms of attracting institutional investors and even partnering with CBOE

It appears that those quasi- "non traditional financial fucks" aka Gemini, did not participate in our "crash" from a few hours ago.

I was just able to log in and none of my buy orders below $15k executed, and the Gemini price is currently bouncing in the $15k territory.

Perhaps they will dip a little bit to get more in line with the other exchanges, but I am having my doubts, since in recent days they have been lining up a lot more closely with GDAX, which seems to be their current bouncing around price point.

[HairyMaclairy]

Was Gemini hacked or is this just scheduled maintenance like their status page claims?

https://status.gemini.com/incidents/k4qvyflfmm24

Yep.. it is surely taking them a long time to get back online, and they have been having quite a few of these issues in recent weeks, which does not bode well for them in terms of attracting institutional investors and even partnering with CBOE

It appears that those "non traditional financial fucks" aka Gemini, did not participate in our "crash" from a few hours ago.

I was just able to log in and none of my buy orders below $15k executed, and the Gemini price is currently bouncing in the $15k territory.

Perhaps they will dip a little bit to get more in line with the other exchanges, but I am having my doubts, since in recent days they have been lining up a lot more closely with GDAX, which seems to be their current bouncing around price point.

If institutional money stabilises Gdax and Gemini, then arb will eventually clean up BFx and Bitstamp. I think we all risk being bored silly.

[Raja_MBZ]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures, I'm predicting many would sell it off and money from bitcoin will flow towards alt-coins. This might have never happened in the past, but I'm sure it'd happen this time, when bitcoin would crash a bit, wealthy and healthy alts like ETH/ETC will steal the spotlight.

Let's wait and watch the graphs though, things are getting very interesting.

[pfrtlpfmpf]

*prayforbitcoin*

Wait, we´ve got the fork for that, soon: "bitcoin god", for all you believers out there. It´s no problem, to believe, but be carefull in what you believe.

[realr0ach]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

[savetherainforest]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

If "the house" consists of the "hodlers" and the money comes from the banks. I'm fine with that.

[gembitz]

 

BTCBTC astronomical price explained^

[realr0ach]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

If "the house" consists of the "hodlers" and the money comes from the banks. I'm fine with that.

No, "the house" is not the hodlers, because the transactions are settled in USD, so the house is the US govt, the fed, or something like the BIS/cult of usury jews if you go up the totem pole. 

[becoin]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

[PoolMinor]

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

Really?

How many blocks are normally produced each day?

[Heater]

CBOE futures launch in 24 hours.

Each contract is for a US$ cash payment equal to 1 Bitcoin at the Gemini price at the Settlement Time, which is 4 pm Central Time on the Settlement Date.  Minimum price tick is $10.  Contracts settle in January, February and March.

XBT/F8 January

XBT/G8 February

XBT/H8 March

Please place your price predictions for the opening price of each of the three futures contracts.  Note:   I am still trying to work out the Settlement Date in each month. If someone has that info I will edit this post.

The expiration dates are here:

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures

Symbol   Expiration   Last   Change   High   Low   Settlement   Volume
GXBT      16250.00   -572.59   16350.10   14500.00      
XBT/F8   01/17/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
XBT/G8   02/14/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0
XBT/H8   03/14/2018   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0

I feel sorry for the poor sod trying to price these. If any of you are reading this - good luck!


This is the lol part:

XBT futures provides a way for you to buy and sell bitcoin futures in a highly regulated marketplace nearly 24 hours a day, five days per week. This gives you the flexibility to invest and divest at the optimal time for your specific trading strategy.

So flexible!

[Ludwig Von]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

The whole futures narative will be a turd and fizzle into the coke filled brains of Wallstreet in a few days. Nothing to see in Coinlandia.

[TERA2]

BitThumb looks just like Huobi...

[Heater]

After launch of bitcoin at CBOE futures

Then bitcoin becomes a casino gulag where the house always wins and there is no reason to go near it instead of metals.  In metals they can only naked short it to cost of production.  In bitcoin, cost of production is fully floating and recursive based on it's own demand via hashrate, so they can literally naked short it to 0 instead of some type of cost of production floor because no such thing even exists in bitcoin.  Shorting metals below cost of production causes miners to stop bringing gold and silver to market, so it's counterintuitive because it would just create scarcity, so they don't do it (or at least not for long periods of time).  Shorting bitcoin below cost of production forces miners to turn off, thus lowering the temporary cost of production floor even further while the supply from miners recirculating coins remains unchanged.  This is why naked shorting is FAR MORE detrimental to bitcoin than metals.

This is nonsense for a very simple reason. If there is gold price increase there will be increase in supply by opening more gold mines. if there is bitcoin price increase you can't increase supply by opening more bitcoin mines!

The whole futures narative will be a turd and fizzle into the coke filled brains of Wallstreet in a few days. Nothing to see in Coinlandia.

Agree. The only valid use case I can think of would be a whale protecting their position at the top of the market when they know they have a large fiat expense coming up (eg tax) and they don't want to cash out yet. The problem is they can't use BTC to underwrite the trade (it has to be Fiat) so it's useless even for simple hedging.

Tone's recent interview with Ugly Goat explains the whole scenario well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gXUEfZY4zRk