Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

Mining has eventual low, uniform profit per unit of (hardware $  + energy $). Both hardware and energy markets are seriously skewed, that's what allows monopolies.

No, there's absolutely no reason this paradigm will ever change because technology that exists is just a reflection of asymmetric intelligence distribution of humans, further compounded by the huge overhead to build said devices which limits participation to a handful of individuals on the planet.  You're basically pretending a bunch of peons can crowd source a bitcoin miner better than intel can build, or that commodification of ASICs is inevitable when it's obviously not.

There is no incentive to sell a money printing machine for less or equal money than it would make you unless the goal is simply to put on a ruse and pretend a few other people mine bitcoin besides yourself so you can claim it's decentralized (when it's really not).  But those other people will still be making less money than you since they have to buy your miner, allowing you to retain slumlord monopoly.  That doesn't even get into the fact that they might value power over the system rather than money and refuse to sell even at a profit.  Let's also not forget that in adversarial mining you can automatically eliminate your rivals simply by having larger hash power. Bitcoin is DESIGNED to centralize in about 1000 different ways, period.

Instead of "commodification" of ASIC, the next step will be someone like IBM or Intel making graphene transistors and tipping bitcoin from 99% to 100% centralized.

[1715611504]

1715611504

[arklan]

I’m not sure I want to go back up to 19,000. I don’t think I can handle the responsibility.   I’m feeling pretty comfortable here.

Honey badger taking a nap?

[TERA2]

Fun fact - all of these same conversations have happened at 4 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 3 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 2 digit price levels, and 1 digit levels. The same comments, the same debates, and even many of the same people.

[JayJuanGee]

I hear a good portion of people literally saying that btc is never going to dip or crash again because everything has changed or now it's being stabilized by the big money or whatever which is bs, or they are just new and not aware of the crashes.

Of course you can always find anecdotal evidence of any fucking point that you want to make, but anecdotal is not representative and it does not even mean that much, even if you can find 20% of morons saying some kind of nonsense. 

You constantly repeating these bitcoin is going to crash themes as if the outrageous aspects of public sentiment are any kind of meaningful indication regarding the extent to which BTC might be in a bubble, or not.... just ridiculous, your ongoing trolling on the same chicken little sky is falling baloney.

[TERA2]

Well it's not like I just come on here to declare there is going to be a crash. I am usually disagreeing with someone and addressing them when I hear them say something ridiculous.

[Dabs]

... For example, if you can just put a miner on cruise control and collect payments from it while not actually doing any type of work yourself, this works out to be roughly the same thing as collecting interest and we all know how compound interest spirals out of control.  So you can then parlay all your interest into continuous expansion until complete monopoly (which is what many of these miners have done).  To prevent this compound interest effect, you would need to do something like require miners to do physical labor (solve captchas) for the block reward so they can't continuously expand.

The problem you encounter here is that...you can create bots to solve the captchas for you, and you're right back to square one again and have fixed nothing.  The system always turns into slum lords collecting money for nothing through a monopoly.

That sounds like a business, you know, in the real world. That's how they operate, but of course I have a factory, I hire employees, they work for me. I hire managers and supervisors to handle a bunch of employees. The thing is almost on autopilot or cruise control.

Because if you have to micromanage something to make profits, that's not a business.

Incidentally, I read all your posts on steemit, or at least the ones you posted in your reply to me. I don't agree with about half or more of them, but hey, they were an interesting read. I think I've read some of them before too.

I say bitcoin is going to a few trillion dollars. You can call me a pumper for saying that.

[HairyMaclairy]

Fun fact - all of these same conversations have happened at 4 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 3 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 2 digit price levels, and 1 digit levels. The same comments, the same debates, and even many of the same people.

And the price keeps going up all the same....

[JayJuanGee]

Fun fact - all of these same conversations have happened at 4 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 3 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 2 digit price levels, and 1 digit levels. The same comments, the same debates, and even many of the same people.

you are really devolving into fantastical thinking that is probably has less than a .5% chance of happening, even though you are presenting such scenario as if it has some kind of meaningful odds... wishful thinking and perhaps some desperation, too.   

[TERA2]

Fun fact - all of these same conversations have happened at 4 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 3 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 2 digit price levels, and 1 digit levels. The same comments, the same debates, and even many of the same people.

you are really devolving into fantastical thinking that is probably has less than a .5% chance of happening, even though you are presenting such scenario as if it has some kind of meaningful odds... wishful thinking and perhaps some desperation, too.  

I am totally lost here on both of your responses to my completely neutral or even positive comment where I am simply making an observation of the past. It was not meant to be connected to any other discussion I was having. What is this scenario I am presenting... odds of what? Did you guys sleep yet?

[JayJuanGee]

Well it's not like I just come on here to declare there is going to be a crash. I am usually disagreeing with someone and addressing them when I hear them say something ridiculous.

Maybe you should try addressing yourself, because you say quite a lot of ridiculous stuff.       

[JayJuanGee]

Fun fact - all of these same conversations have happened at 4 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 3 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 2 digit price levels, and 1 digit levels. The same comments, the same debates, and even many of the same people.

you are really devolving into fantastical thinking that is probably has less than a .5% chance of happening, even though you are presenting such scenario as if it has some kind of meaningful odds... wishful thinking and perhaps some desperation, too.  

I am totally lost here on both of your responses to my completely neutral or even positive comment where I am simply making an observation of the past. It was not meant to be connected to any other discussion I was having. What is this scenario I am presenting... odds of what?

O.k.   I read you a bit wrong on that, yet still, there may be a lot of similar conversations, but there has been a lot of development and a lot of changed dynamics, too, including a lot of the effect of the ICO craze and alts ... and just the amount of capital that is flowing into the space that involves traditional financial circles, rather than niche technical and computer geeks.

[realr0ach]

Fun fact - all of these same conversations have happened at 4 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 3 digit price levels, and before that they happened at 2 digit price levels, and 1 digit levels. The same comments, the same debates, and even many of the same people.

They really haven't because most of the people on these forums and current bitcoin developers seem to claim commodification of ASICs is inevitable when I just demonstrated why there is no incentive for that to ever happen.  For bitcoin to have any type of fundamentals whatsoever, people are relying on assumptions that have no basis in reality in other words.

[RoomBot]

Today could/ should be historic, with Wall Street finally giving in to BTC fever.

Lots of people took profits at ATH near USD $20K (and caused a dip ) that might regret not waiting until this week!  

USD $25K anyone?

Like waiting for Santa Claus.

When I wake up tomorrow I want to see $21K +++++

[HairyMaclairy]

That’s a great question. Is the Bitcoin price correlated to the date in December??!

[RoomBot]

Meanwhile, on Reddit;

https://np.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7kf43b/bitcoincom_wallet_2_out_of_5_stars_531_ratings_we/drei7jx/

MemoryDealers Roger Ver - Bitcoin Entrepreneur - Bitcoin.com -239 points 5 hours ago
I made Andreas a millionaire. I suspect he is pretty happy with my tweet.

Riiiiiiight.  After watching him struggle for 7 years.... Never thought of just giving some of his own stash?  But now takes credit.  Whatever.

[Wekkel]

Meanwhile, on Reddit;

https://np.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7kf43b/bitcoincom_wallet_2_out_of_5_stars_531_ratings_we/drei7jx/

MemoryDealers Roger Ver - Bitcoin Entrepreneur - Bitcoin.com -239 points 5 hours ago
I made Andreas a millionaire. I suspect he is pretty happy with my tweet.

Haha, that’s a good one.

Well played Ver, well played  

[RoomBot]

Players gonna play.

[realr0ach]

I just noticed Buttalik took a stance on the block size issue that I somehow missed:



His argument is a bit too simplistic, as the real dilemma in this scenario is either one of two paths:  1 MB forever and claiming that's the original framework, or infinite block size and claiming that's the original framework.  There is not really any evidence supporting some type of 1 MB forever type of vision, and since LN is not some all pros and no cons deal for replacing on-chain scaling and centralizes btc even further, I have a feeling large blocks are going to win eventually.  Not that it really matters what you do to block size since the thing is completely centralized already.

[goggles]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2017/12/17/trust-in-stockmarket-greater-than-bitcoin-but-not-by-much-survey/

[realr0ach]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2017/12/17/trust-in-stockmarket-greater-than-bitcoin-but-not-by-much-survey/

Both stocks and bitcoin are nothing more than crowd sourced pump and dumps so the degree of trust is entirely determined by personal investment.  If anything, that article is kind of a warning sign that much of the retail investor is already in on bitcoin leaving not as many greater fools to buy higher.