Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mmitech]

again a positive article/analyze about Bitcoin volatility  in Washington post   http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/12/09/heres-why-volatility-isnt-a-big-problem-for-bitcoin/

[lucas.sev]

Epic bull trap, or we're going back above ATH.

My prediction for the rest of the week: Rise with slow volume until Wed, then choppy downtrend to 600s, making it hard to see if a certain figure is a buying of selling opportunity.

Risto I like your posts, as they are usually non-sensational and have some value behind them, but how do you expect people to take your predictions seriously when you have admitted to trying to talk the price down because you thought 'crash was healthy'...

[macsga]

No offense intended, I do have the opinion we' re heading for another FAST ath rally before correcting again.

[TERA]

The altcoins are booming again. Strange.

The alts always become artificially supressed during immense unexpected btc volatility while people cash out of alts to play or sell btc.  Then when the volatility subsides, they recover, often in an exxagerated manner.

[Davyd05]

No offense intended, I do have the opinion we' re heading for another FAST ath rally before correcting again.

I think we've seen people hold off on buying for 6hrs or so in hopes of seeing new money leading the rally. They don't wanna stick their toes in the shark infested waters

[barbs]

Epic bull trap, or we're going back above ATH.

My prediction for the rest of the week: Rise with slow volume until Wed, then choppy downtrend to 600s, making it hard to see if a certain figure is a buying of selling opportunity.

Risto I like your posts, as they are usually non-sensational and have some value behind them, but how do you expect people to take your predictions seriously when you have admitted to trying to talk the price down because you thought 'crash was healthy'...

I have yet to see a single one of his posts come true, although yesterday he said he thinks we will resume the exponential trendline.

Doing the opposite of what he posts has proven to be a winning strategy.

[Salivan]

listening all those noobs  make me think how fast people ( myself including ) mature in this market

[ft73]

No offense intended, I do have the opinion we' re heading for another FAST ath rally before correcting again.

I hate myself for thinking the same.

[gizmoh]

I smell trap too, as before the crash the rally weakened around 1200.
So unless big money pours in, new ATH is improbable in the coming few weeks and this price will be unsustainable.

[Odalv]

In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.

The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)

Interesting approach. Is there any way that you could make a mathematical model about it, so that we could compare vs. the SSS plan?

Did not hear or seen more stupid strategy than that from gandhibt.

Edit:
There is one ... send bitcoin to pirate40

[FiatKiller]

So, all you folks who try and sell at the start of a big crash to buy in nearer the bottom. Do you keep your coins in an exchange ready for such an event, or do you move them across when you think the time is near?

I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?

Yes, I have 20% of my coins sitting there and sell at over $1000. If it never drops again I know I at least got 4 digits for them, but if it crashes, I can buy back in and end up with MORE coins which is ultimately more important. I just started trading them and went from 27% less BTC to 8% more BTC. If I keep getting more BTC over time, I will withdraw some.

[macsga]

Speculation wise (no TA done) I've talked through with a friend on Saturday about the "crash". He said to me that he should have sold at 1200 and buy in low. This is NOT the way to do it. Predictions are either TA based OR hunch based. Hunch can be a good or bad advisor sometimes; I don't want to repeat myself; but once in a while I feel I MUST do it:

Read and repeat after me PLEASE:

I personally follow and post here the 5 rules of success for you:
1. Don't get emotional from other's people thoughts.
2. Not everyone here is a "nice person" you can trust.
3. IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT TO DO, DON'T TRADE.
4. HOLD!!!
5. Until you desperately need the money follow rule #4.

Good Luck!

[gandhibt]

In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.

The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)

Interesting approach. Is there any way that you could make a mathematical model about it, so that we could compare vs. the SSS plan?

I have backtested EMA-system, which is in background in this approach, but I have not evolved this to stage where I could yet model a strict logical model. That would be good, cause that would eliminate emotion from trading better.

[lucas.sev]

I smell trap too, as before the crash the rally weakened around 1200.
So unless big money pours in, new ATH is improbable in the coming few weeks and this price will be unsustainable.

I've sent wires on Friday, I wonder who else did. Money will be coming around Wednesday I think.

[oda.krell]

So, all you folks who try and sell at the start of a big crash to buy in nearer the bottom. Do you keep your coins in an exchange ready for such an event, or do you move them across when you think the time is near?

I saw there was a guy in this thread who went from 50 to 70 doing so - that doesn't sound like day trade play money. I'd be concerned about leaving a big stash of BTC in an exchange given how Wild West some of the BTC world is. I guess the chances are small if it's just temporary, but would any of you be concerned that BitStamp or Gox could get hacked, or go out of business, for example?

I have 2/3 of my stash in bitstamp and 1/3 in wallet. I think the risk of losing coins in bitstamp is so small that I'm willing to take that risk, because it lowers other risks. Bitcoin as whole has risks, wallet has risks, bitstamp has risks, how big is the risk and how much can you protect your wealth are the important questions.

For me trading is about lowering the risk of losing money, I think buy and hold has more risks than low risk trading, even thou you have to keep majority of your coins in exchange.

Here's a pic that maybe tells something about my mentality:



In this case you are losing coins, but your wealth is better protected. It's like paying "crash insurance". And if you do this always, someday you will win big when big crash comes. This isn't as easy to do as it seems in the pic.

The most important thing in low risk trading is buying back in with loss and this could be majority of your trades. Winning trades are just so much bigger that this doesn't just lower your risk of losing wealth but it also is better for your coin stash in the long run. (maybe)

EDIT. One important thing to add is that I'm doing this full-time and has been doing and studying this over an year full-time. Don't trade if you don't have time to sacrifice to it.

Hahaha, very nice to see something I do myself put into a crude pic

But really, I have a similar line of thought in my trading. It's a balance... on the one hand, I believe we are now in the "land grab" phase. Forgot who called it that first. But for land grab to be useful, land must have max value in the long run, i.e. BTC must succeed (where "succeed" is somewhat complicated to define... I'll just say I don't believe in the binary model many here seem to follow, where BTC is either 0 or 1 trillion per coin).

So the hedge against land grab being useless (because BTC fails) is to secure fiat profits if there's indications that we're going down for reals this time. And since all of this is based in a purely probabilistic setting, all actions are based on mixed strategies, in game theory terminology.

So a) I try to trade swings profitably, b) avoid swings if I can't trade them profitably (because I missed the inflection point), and c) in violation of a) and b), trade swings *at a btc loss* if I have reasons to believe it is a necessary hedge against total fiat loss.

[Davyd05]

I smell trap too, as before the crash the rally weakened around 1200.
So unless big money pours in, new ATH is improbable in the coming few weeks and this price will be unsustainable.

I've sent wires on Friday, I wonder who else did. Money will be coming around Wednesday I think.

I love cavirtex for only one reason.. 2-3 day from the day I make a bill payment it is processed.. friday is done by tuesday latest  12:05am generally though its there on the third day no matter what day. and 5 bucks.. instead of a 30 dollar wire fee in Canada is another 25 to bitcoin

[DougTanner]

Breaking downwards out of the 8-hour triangle.

[Davyd05]

Look like i was right yesterday. Too much greedy bears waiting for unrealistically cheap coins. This "crash" looks more and more like the silkroad one.

hard to peg it just yet.. we got a proving ground period till Wednesday I'd guess

[Rampion]

The current pattern fits very well in the "first sell off" phase of the classical bubble chart. It definitely doesn't look as a "bubble pop"

[UnDerDoG81]

People sell but the price goes up  

Cmon did one mistake by selling yesterday, can we please go back to 800 for a second