Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rpietila]

At $600 the 'trends' were still peaking (as much as I hate to depend on trends), the media was still pumping the bitcoin propaganda and people's interests were being piqued.

Now the trends are down, the media has been saturated (something thats hard for bitcoiners to accept, what people actually would just ignore our bitcoin arcitles???) and we are yesterday's news.

As far as not knowing how much 'pressure' is left. It's pretty obvious, we've been flapping off this ~1k resistance like a wet fish for for a while now, the only pressure that's left is in bull's heads.

My bearish call was about 7 hours after China popped in 19th November, public the following day. My correct calls have been to sell ALL bitcoins in 2011 for $25 (never before, nor ever after), and buy back at $2-$3 (which I did follow myself).

The fact that after the actual pop in November, the old steam still inflated the bubble to almost twice the size is fun

Perhaps selling some more today - every day mounts more evidence that it's not going anywhere.

[macsga]

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.

[simonk83]

The significance of all this is that if we trade in a range for a few weeks it is megabullish. And right now it looks like we are going to (at worst) trade at a high range 850-1050 than a lower range 650-850.

Simply amazing. I expected more out of the bears honestly.

So I am contemplating to reduce/leave the forum for a few months. I have also other projects. Thoughts?

Sounds like a plan.

[Vycid]

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.

I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion.

I repeat: this is not a tool for daytrading. This would be a tool to help indicate, in general, when bitcoins are overbought and oversold, so you can better identify the tops of bubbles and the bottoms of the following crash; and when there's significant possibility of another bubble in the near future, and when we're headed for an extended bear market.

[ChartBuddy]

[macsga]

If you've hired a professional statistician on your dime for the community's benefit, we are obviously grateful.

You don't know any folks that know any system dynamics, do you? I'd take that kind of analysis very seriously indeed.

I can only *READ* those... remember this is a chaotic system.

This is a system driven by mass adoption of an invention, which has been modeled before and can be modeled here.

I don't want to play it the smartguy here; but do you really think this simplified model can cover bitcoin dynamics?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/System_dynamics

I SERIOUSLY don't.

I think it'd be so immensely superior to an extrapolated trendline as to be unworthy of discussion.

So true; others here would have been bored to death

[wachtwoord]

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

Don't put so much value in what other people have to say. I for one love it when I say something and no-one agrees, while at the same time I'm very certain of my opinion. I'm a contrarian at heart though

[Vycid]

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

Don't put so much value in what other people have to say. I for one love it when I say something and no-one agrees, while at the same time I'm very certain of my opinion. I'm a contrarian at heart though

Contrarians are often lonely, but always win the biggest.

[wachtwoord]

The only thing I don't like with being a bear is that posting in the forum is not fun anymore.

Don't put so much value in what other people have to say. I for one love it when I say something and no-one agrees, while at the same time I'm very certain of my opinion. I'm a contrarian at heart though

Contrarians are often lonely, but always win the biggest.

You're not lonely if you don't mind people thinking you're wrong. Also, when you're right often, people close to you start to believe in you, even if they think your opinion sounds insane

[gandhibt]

you still have to set strict stop-losses and always follow them.

Are you willing to quantify this stop-loss approach, so that I could run a few simulations?

Eg. "always sell when price dips 10% from the ATH", "Buy back at ATH"

It's support/resistance and time of trade dependent. I remember our last conversation, but I can't provide anything worth presenting yet. Maybe I wait that I make my first million first to back it up. Shouldn't take too long.

[MicroFi]

I'm afraid we're going to have to build up some serious buying pressure, before we can make another attempt to break $1000.

[seljo]

I got out on 1200 it's still the best move I could have done. 

[electronistul]

What in the world is happening here ?!

[micalith]

I'm afraid we're going to have to build up some serious buying pressure, before we can make another attempt to break $1000.

all in good time. It's not surprising to see reluctance to buy at the moment. It's the kind of thing that will pick up gradually. Volume's not actually that bad considering how many people have already played their hands

[mbets]

What in the world is happening here ?!

http://s30.postimg.org/myfukrygh/goxdenied.jpg

It's back dont worry

[maz]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins%2C%20what%20is%20bitcoin%2C%20bitcoin%20exchange&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

[Vycid]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins%2C%20what%20is%20bitcoin%2C%20bitcoin%20exchange&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Too early to glean anything meaningful from this. The number of searches per day is greater than it was in mid-november, but unsurprisingly the pace has slowed from the fever pitch it hit at the ATHs.

[tutkarz]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins%2C%20what%20is%20bitcoin%2C%20bitcoin%20exchange&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

to be accurate you should include results in other languages too like China, Argentina (Spain basically) and India.

[maz]

Fighting talk!!

http://www.independent.ie/business/eu-banking-watchdog-warns-of-risks-from-bitcoin-29835212.html

"The watchdog has been studying virtual currencies for three months and is still considering whether they can or ought to be regulated. It has powers to ban them, though questions remain over how this could be done in practice."

[Erdogan]

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=buy%20bitcoin%2C%20buy%20bitcoins%2C%20what%20is%20bitcoin%2C%20bitcoin%20exchange&date=today%201-m&cmpt=q

Too early to glean anything meaningful from this. The number of searches per day is greater than it was in mid-november, but unsurprisingly the pace has slowed from the fever pitch it hit at the ATHs.

Only one percent of those interested, get it. The rest just follows the stream. We will live off those in two year's time.