Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gandhibt]

I would really like to see a day with like 500,000 volume on mtgox to give me confidence that a bottom is in. I've been watching all the exchanges and all of the action has been weaksauce - no evidence of any kind real capitulation , plus they're still following BT China which is a sinking ship.

Maybe there won't be any real capitulation. Yes we are unhappy and scared about China, but is bitcoin dead? Has development stopped? Are financial circles calling bitcoin the investment of 2014?

It sucks, but this is more like uncertainty because we don't know what China is up to, not because bitcoin is dead. The Chinese are probably rapidly trying to decide what to do with their bitcoin, but do they believe it's dead? It doesn't seem like it. They got into it because it was a world wide thing and the early adopters there see it's long term potential.  We always knew they would need to be galvanised by fire with some mega crash. We had it: twice in 2011 and last April. We always came back stronger, faster and faster. In 2011 we sold till the bottom. In April we sold to ~$50 with reports of Bitcoins death from left and right. Now we have fallen by what- 50%? 2011 was from $32 to pennies. April was ~260 to ~50. So far it's been ~$1200 to ~550? We are crashing less and less severe. And bitcoin is only getting more press, more coverage. In some ways it took China making a stance on bitcoin for other governments to make a stance. Sure it's not exactly what we wanted, but we've gotten something priceless instead: the worlds attention.

+1

[1714163440]

1714163440

[spooderman]

Well put

[HairyMaclairy]

Those of us who have only recently joined this particular MMO would very much appreciate a crash an order of magnitude greater than so far made available so we can dollar cost average in.  

I have a stack of fiat ready to buy but my personal trading rules prevent me from buying any more until the price drops further.  So I sit and do nothing.  Which is boring.  

[600watt]

Those of us who have only recently joined this particular MMO would very much appreciate a crash an order of magnitude greater than so far made available so we can dollar cost average in.  

I have a stack of fiat ready to buy but my personal trading rules prevent me from buying any more until the price drops further.  So I sit and do nothing.  Which is boring.  

go all in with a market order. i bet boredom will vanish in a second.


edit: you are doing it right

[tHash]

Why are you talking averages? The fact of the matter it did retrace to $70 from $260 and has already retraced to < $600 from this bubble. Yes it may settle at a > $700 average when the dust has settled but there's every possibility we'll test $400 before that happens.

We will have to disagree there.   In the last crash, everyone was calling for a certain low that "had" to be hit before we could go up.   Consequently, we never hit that low.   Your call is lower than the vast majority, and since it is unlikely we will visit the low they are calling for, it is even less likely that we will test $400.   Barring more bad news of course.   Just don't miss the train!   We won't be resuming a raging bull market for a while, but trying to catch the bottom has ruined at least some.

[EuroTrash]

Tonight I quit a boring company Xmas party early to go to a bitcoin meetup. Win.

[C. Bergmann]

What's going on with chinese exchanges? Volume dropped to nothing ...

[Dragonkiller]

What's going on with chinese exchanges? Volume dropped to nothing ...

They're sleeping

[rebuilder]

What's going on with chinese exchanges? Volume dropped to nothing ...

Third-party payment processors banned from dealing with BTC exchanges, uncertainty over whether that includes banks... What do you expect? My guess is, we may finally see what it looks like when users exit an exchange for good.

[HairyMaclairy]

What's going on with chinese exchanges? Volume dropped to nothing ...

They're sleeping

Its 7.30 am in China.  Sleeping in?  Volume does look very light.  Lag?

[Dragonkiller]

What's going on with chinese exchanges? Volume dropped to nothing ...

They're sleeping

Its 7.30 am in China.  Sleeping in?  Volume does look very light.  Lag?

lol 7:30 is pretty early for me

[EuroTrash]

My guess is, we may finally see what it looks like when users exit an exchange for good.

Ever heard of btc24?

[TERA]

You know maybe the difference between 2011 and 2013 was the distance we were above the exponential growth trend, so 2011 had to fall further to catch it than 2013. Currently we are at a 2011-like distance. And all these factors you mention: the press, the good events, the investors, combined with China - maybe all it means is that were more and more grossly overbought, and even less able to support this price under less than perfect conditions.

[EuroTrash]

What's going on with chinese exchanges? Volume dropped to nothing ...

They're sleeping

Its 7.30 am in China.  Sleeping in?  Volume does look very light.  Lag?

It's not like they had a good night of sleep the day before...

EDIT: and most bots are now down because trading fees.

[HairyMaclairy]

It's not like they had a good night of sleep the day before...

 

Nice one. 

[mbets]

Looking at the charts I feel like USA wants to go up but China is wary and is keeping the world at a low price. I just hope China makes up their mind fast.

[rebuilder]

My guess is, we may finally see what it looks like when users exit an exchange for good.

Ever heard of btc24?

I have, unfortunately. They stopped trading altogether, that's not what I meant. Mt. Gox's withdrawal issues have led to some theories about what happens when cashflow to or from an exchange is cut off, the chinese exchanges look poised to give us some real-world examples.

[HairyMaclairy]

So who is going to move some bitcoins onto BTC China, convert to yuan, wait for bank transactions to be formally banned, buy back bitcoin when all hell breaks loose and send the bitcoins back to the West?

[EuroTrash]

My guess is, we may finally see what it looks like when users exit an exchange for good.

Ever heard of btc24?

I have, unfortunately. They stopped trading altogether, that's not what I meant. Mt. Gox's withdrawal issues have led to some theories about what happens when cashflow to or from an exchange is cut off, the chinese exchanges look poised to give us some real-world examples.

So you weren't there. About a week before btc24 stopping trading and admitting the seizure of the funds, btc24 troll box started being full of complaints from people that hadn't received their fiat withdrawals for two weeks. Price went up 20% higher than Gox before they stopped processing any withdrawals including btc. I quit at a 10% loss, just a few days before fuckup.

[ChartBuddy]