Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

Of course, there are edge cases. Some assets will keep climbing for a very long time, others will go to zero. But that's where diversification and value analysis (should) come into play, not succumbing to human psychology.

Make sure you really understand this and don't fall for the trap of "omg why didn't I sell" if we go down further after the fact. The (mathematically) most sensible thing to do is to keep buying in small batches and decide on different price targets at which you will sell. This includes higher prices at which you take some partial profits, as well as a full stop at which you get out of the game entirely. I'm personally riding down to zero if I have to, but for others it might be more sensible to scrape.

Just be aware of how markets function and decide on your strategy before you get into the game, and then take whatever you get without beating up yourself over it. Invest that energy in learning how to do better next time instead of FUDding/FOMOing out/in.

+1 WOsMerit

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it.  

hope you can find it, like to read it

I am not sure what the article says, but I can name 2 reasons:

- mathematics: in a short position you can only maximally make 100% of the money you put in (if you don't use leverage).   If you short $100 worth of something, the best you can hope for is it goes to zero and you make $100.  For longs, profit is potentially infinite.  Ask somebody who put in $100 in bitcoin when it was worth $1/BTC how much money they made, it is slightly more than $100.

- inflation: In a world where fiat is the currency, and central banks have a mandate to produce 2% inflation, assets that break even on purchasing power go up in price 2% a year.  That means that shorters lose 2% a year as a baseline.  (shorting something denominated in bitcoin might be less unfavorable for this reason).


EDIT:
- a third reason: risk: a short position is always a margin position with risk of liquidation.  Longs can just keep their position for years without ever having to worry about being wiped out due to market volatility.

[JayJuanGee]

I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020. 

You literally inviting JJG to call you a party pooper, with that kind of talk. 

Hairy tends to back up his seemingly bearish calls pretty well, so difficult to argue with this kind of call, even though it seems a bit more pessimistic than what would be preferred.

Certainly, I am not pushing for any kind of narrative, except that the calls (especially about the future, and especially if extreme) are backed up by logic and facts.

In 2015, 2016 and 2017, my calls became a lot more conservative than market performance, so the actual market performance caused my expectations to be exceeded... which is a really great feeling (especially when you are prepared for such because you did not sell a significant portion of your BTC at lower levels).

Even though some people might characterize me as a bit too blind on the bull side of BTC matters, I understand the power of downward momentum and the difficulties and irrationalities to get out of such momentum takes a whole hell of a lot of time and overwhelming fundamentals in which bears are no longer able to push prices down, before they are ready and able to go up.

By the way, the reality of our matter is that our assessment of the BTC market should have become much more bearish after breaking below $6k without any quick spring back.. and we cannot fight the matter that it is likely to take an overwhelming amount of buying to get us back above $6k when so much confidence was lost from that breach and not quick bounce back.  So even though $6k represented about a 70% correction and a great BTC buying opportunity and $3,350 represents about a 83% and even a greater BTC buying opportunity, a lot of people have become too scared to buy and more wiling to sell, even at these prices and even when they should either be buying BTC or just HODLing and waiting to buy more at a lower price, if BTC were to go lower - which is far from certain, but has decent chances based on current actual BTC price dynamics rather than preferred BTC price dynamics.

[JayJuanGee]

Chosing a bottom is never an easy task


They all need to be tested

I have a bit of trouble with the concept of "choosing" a bottom, rather than "finding" a bottom or "predicting" a bottom.

I understand that the meme works better with "choosing," even though there's something that seems missing,... not quite right about the analogy.

[Spaceman_Spiff_Original]

Chosing a bottom is never an easy task


They all need to be tested

I have a bit of trouble with the concept of "choosing" a bottom, rather than "finding" a bottom or "predicting" a bottom.

I understand that the meme works better with "choosing," even though there's something that seems missing,... not quite right about the analogy.

Wow, you manage to even make talking about bottoms a pain in the ass.

I think you are actively trying to encourage 'bash on JJG thursdays'  

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-12-13/where-does-bitcoin-go-from-here


Bloomberg -

[crypmike]

https://twitter.com/Khil0ne/status/1072224804521107456

[PaivanTreidi]

Still buying. Have all the rest of my ammo on buy orders between EUR 2940 and 2800. It's going to the moon from the 200wk moving avg. ...
I know. Just blowing my mouth off.
But...
Sooner or later others will be thinking the same though and then it WILL start going back up again and we wont see this low for years.

Yes. I do think it will go close to 0 some day.... In the mid 2030s

[JayJuanGee]

$6245 is over $5000

I think we’ll start to move upwards in Feb regardless of BAKKT, even if they delay again.

These prices are literally ‘cheap coin’.
Like Hairy said, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity, I am buying more but I just wish I had a lot more fiat.

It really looks like a good opportunity to buy...
But I believe we are going down even further. I will sell some and rebuy. I just can't see my bags growing heavier if we hit 1500-2500...

Hi

I would be interested to know more.  Can you tell us whether you have sold some previously since the peak, and your thinking?

Well that's what I did:

Buying from 2 to 9k in 2017. Took small profits in 7k.
Saw it go to 20k and, as a newbie I thought: I will necer be able to buy one BTC again, I will not take profits. My average is about 3800usd.
Holding since then.

I believe that BTC will bounce . I has bounced so many times since 2017, and much more since 2013, 2015 etc etc...

But I am not willing to bet so much money. As this is almost gambling

I thought i was ready to lose that money, but when I got red (especially because of ethereum, average 280 USD) I feel that I can't take another 40% dump which is very likely now.

Ethereum is in a bad shape now. Casper is delayed and ICOs are fuked. This affects yhe whole market, even BTC imo...

I am about to sell my ethereum which is like 30% of initial investment.

I am thinking about selling btc too, at least some and try to buy back at lower price (I am so bad at this)

When I sell the chances are that we are going to have a big bounce, so I will tell everyone first so you can make some money lol..

What are yours thinking?

Ultimately you have to decide for yourself.

It seems a bit of a deviation from good practice to sell on the way down, although I am not opposed to such in Ethereum because I have almost no good thoughts about ethereum beyond that it is a platform for scams, a distraction from bitcoin and even a misleading attempt to pose as sound money (when it is none of that).  BTC's value comes from it's soundness in money, so best case would be to continue to buy on the way down or at least just keep dollar cost averaging, otherwise just HODL and save money for dips (if they come), and third preference would be to sell a tiny bit of BTC (just for comfort and insurance to be able to use that money to buy back, if such further dip happens and be willing to lock into that decision with a down buy back plan that makes you comfortable and not to use that money for buying back in other circumstances unless a considerable change in the market happens, which could take several months or even a year to play out).

[VB1001]

It is risky short, since they do not have many trips to the bottom.
They are close to a short squeeze.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-13/unabashed-bitcoin-bull-thomas-lee-says-the-market-is-wrong

That's a great idea. Next time I fail on a prediction I will say the market is wrong, not me.

To be fair, it is wrong. Crypto as a whole is not trading against fundamentals.

In the case of Bitcoin that's understandable, but when it comes to credit platforms, exchanges and stuff like that you can estimate the fundamental value through time and then realize that it's vastly over- and undervalued most of the time (think stuff like BNB). That's called market inefficiency and decreasing with maturity of the market.
Right now it's fairly easy (albeit cumbersome due to high amount of shitcoin projects) to identify future winners and losers and the profit margins are absurd. As crypto matures finding these ROIs will become increasingly difficult though, and not just due to the increasing market cap and lower implied upside potential, but due to an increasing amount of value investors skimming the markets.

[Last of the V8s]

https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1073263748809400321
WATCH: Brinks money truck spills loads of money on a freeway in New Jersey. People stopped in the middle of the road to grab what they could:

[JayJuanGee]

I think that you're being emotional and shouldn't invest at all if you can't handle massive red candles. Selling now is like buying at >15k. Now is not the time to sell, but to keep cost averaging in.

There is no guarantee that bitcoin will really bounce back one day . I believe it will, but I am totally unqualified.

Of course, there are no guarantees.  That is why the vast majority of us are suggesting some prudence, especially considering BTC as an investment, and that is to be willing to lose everything that you invest which means riding it to zero if necessary.

Putting more money is foolish, if you already put all the money you have reserved for high risk assets.

It is not foolish because that is how dollar cost averaging works, and we already know that markets can be more extreme than any rational person would expect.

Of course, you need to have confidence in the underlying fundamentals, and that confidence should not be shaken merely by short term price performance.

In past it bounced from much lower marketcap, much lower media attention, much lower infrastructure (exchanges, media, wallets, ATMs, stores that accept etc).

There is some truth to what you are saying, but bitcoin also remains a baby in terms of adoption that continues to grow - in spite of short term price dynamics.

It's not certain that it will ever reach 10k again. I believe it will, as everyone here. But how much are you willing to bet that it will? That's he point.

Bitcoin does not have to reach $10k in order for it to be an ongoing good investment, even at these price levels.

Sure, it has decent chances of reaching $10k again, but of course, nothing is guaranteed, including $10k and including $4k.



Edited to add further response to same topic below:

Just as you said that buying at 15k is stupid, in future selling at 3500 could be a great deal. What is it goes to 1500.? That's a 100 gain if I buy back.

The point is that we're already down 90% and the probability of going down further decreases exponentially as we go down. You're just falling victim to the gambler's fallacy right now.


Edit: What if it goes down to $1? It was $1 before, I could sell one Bitcoin and make 3500 Bitcoins! (fat chance)

Edit2: Invest some money in a book on investing and balancing portfolios. Read it, study it. Everything you post cements the fact that you're just gambling based on emotions. Emotions that traders use to take your money and make profits.

It is down 75%, not 90%.

 I am talking about balancing portfolios, when I said that putting more money is foolish if you already invested all you wanted in high risk assets. Less than 2% of my portfolio is in cryptocurrency.

But you are right, I am being emotional. Even though what I am saying makss Sense, because BTC can still fall to 1900 (your 90% down). We are not there yet.

It does sound like you are emotional here.  Especially, you are arguing with unimportant technicalities regarding BTCMILLIONAIRE's point.. who cares, 70%, 80% or 90%, his point that the BTC price is largely down already which causes it more difficulties to go down further, even though we have a current bearish trend that gives decent probablities to down.

The punchline also seems to be that even if you only invested 2% of your portfolio, you are acting like you are "overinvested" which does not seem to come from someone with a mere 2% of investment portfolio invested.

Edit2:

Ahhhhhhhh

Thank you millionaire, gentlemad and lfcbitcoin

I will hold this shit until it goes up. You are right.

Thanks

I see that you largely have "seen the light," but of course, I am going to leave my above comments stand, as I originally drafted them because there are likely a lot of folks going through similar dilemmas right now, and each of our experiences and opinions can be helpful to resonate with people of varying experiences and perspectives.

[bitserve]

https://twitter.com/BreakingNLive/status/1073263748809400321
WATCH: Brinks money truck spills loads of money on a freeway in New Jersey. People stopped in the middle of the road to grab what they could:

Watching all those good samaritans risking their life to help the truck driver recover all the money renews my confidence on humanity. #XmasSpirit

[Wekkel]

Price is still in the dolldrums so here's some more reading again. I do not like Twitter links but sometimes it is hard to avoid it.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1072973302505779200?s=19

[bkbirge]

Price is still in the dolldrums so here's some more reading again. I do not like Twitter links but sometimes it is hard to avoid it.

https://twitter.com/danheld/status/1072973302505779200?s=19

Thanks for sharing, here's a cut n paste synopsis from the twitter thread...


/ The Bitcoin (double) Standard

A deep dive into the cognitive dissonance of nocoiners, and the ridiculous double standard they have for Bitcoin. Thread 👇

2/ Manipulation

Over the last decade, banks globally have been fined with more than $200 billion in penalties, following investigations into manipulation of various markets/instruments: FX, metals, LIBOR, etc. Those cumulative fines are 2x the current total crypto market cap.

3/ Intrinsic Value

Complaining it has no intrinsic value when their primary currency has absolutely no intrinsic value.

“Bitcoin units have no intrinsic value… the U.S. dollar, the euro, and the Swiss franc, have no intrinsic value either.”

4/ Money Laundering

Approximately $2T a year globally is laundered, Americans spend $100B on drugs annually, Crypto market cap is $109B as of this tweet storm.

“Cryptocurrency [represent a] “low risk” for money laundering and terrorist financing activities... according to FATF

5/ Complexity

Consumers don’t understand how their existing financial system works, nor their cell phone, microwave, etc. There is minimal new training needed for them to be literate/enjoy basic interactions, just like any new technology in their life.

6/ Volatility

The only constant in markets is volatility. No one says “Gold isn’t a good SoV because the price fluctuates” but we hear that all the time with #bitcoin. What did you expect with a new emerging sound money? It certainly wasn’t going to be a linear price path.

7/ Energy Consumption 

🚨 Electricity police! 🚨

Complaining about energy consumption, without first comparing it to the energy consumption of gold mining, the financial system, government, courts, military, selfies, or watching the Kardashians.

8/ Monetary Policy

Worried about deflationary spirals when they most they’ve spent studying deflation is the 15 second dismissal argument from their econ 101 professor

9/ Control

Worries that it was created by an anonymous “hacker” vs highly flawed founding individuals of their government/financial system. Worries that no one “controls” the monetary policy vs a group of old white men they can’t even name

10/ FUD

What all of this FUD represents is the magnitude change Bitcoin brings. Any new technology evokes FUD, which is proportional to the impact it will have on the world. Humans don’t like change, FUD is a representation of the change that a new technology rings.

11/ History rhymes

When the bicycle debuted in 1800s, it was blamed for all sorts of problems—from turning people insane to destroying women’s morals

In the future, we’ll look at these double standards as we do now with bicycle objections: with laughter
 

[bitserve]

Retail Giant Carrefour Launches Blockchain Food Tracking Platform for Poultry in Spain

https://cointelegraph.com/news/retail-giant-carrefour-launches-blockchain-food-tracking-platform-for-poultry-in-spain

(Old news I know, but it is just now being announced in Carrefour's TV ads)

[luckygenough56]

well well well triangle broke down it seems

[Last of the V8s]

It is finished.

[JayJuanGee]

I completely agree however, we must take into consideration that many people invested last year, with a buy in much greater than ours. They could already be at a loss or close to a loss, which puts them at a very different mind set to us who, would need a far greater drop in price to be in their position.

Yeah . My mind set changed completely last week when the price reached my average and I become at loss.

Watch out for this once you're back in profit. Your mindset will do the inverse if we start mooning and that can be just as fatal as what you are experiencing right now. It just won't feel bad until it's too late.

Part of the justification for overinvesting a bit... Perhaps buying 1.2 bitcoin rather than 1 bitcoin is that you won't feel so bad to sell the extra .2BTC that you overinvested when the price goes up (that is if the price goes up).