Bitcoin Forum
June 27, 2019, 09:19:38 AM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.18.0 [Torrent] (New!)
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: Closing BTC Price June 28:
$0 - 5 (2.8%)
<$7,000 - 4 (2.2%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 0 (0%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 0 (0%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 1 (0.6%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 3 (1.7%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 4 (2.2%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 27 (15%)
$10,000-$10,499 - 26 (14.4%)
$10,500-10,999 - 13 (7.2%)
$11,000-$11,499 - 14 (7.8%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 16 (8.9%)
>$12,000 - 53 (29.4%)
>$20,000 - 14 (7.8%)
Total Voters: 180

Pages: « 1 ... 22063 22064 22065 22066 22067 22068 22069 22070 22071 22072 22073 22074 22075 22076 22077 22078 22079 22080 22081 22082 22083 22084 22085 22086 22087 22088 22089 22090 22091 22092 22093 22094 22095 22096 22097 22098 22099 22100 22101 22102 22103 22104 22105 22106 22107 22108 22109 22110 22111 22112 [22113] 22114 22115 22116 22117 22118 22119 22120 22121 22122 22123 22124 22125 22126 22127 22128 22129 22130 22131 22132 22133 22134 22135 22136 22137 22138 22139 22140 22141 22142 22143 22144 22145 22146 22147 22148 22149 22150 22151 22152 22153 22154 22155 22156 22157 22158 22159 22160 22161 22162 22163 ... 24365 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21248029 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (66 posts by 16 users deleted.)
realr0ach
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686
Merit: 296


#TheGoyimKnow


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 03:50:23 AM


I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.

Hmm, doesn't look like the flames hit the required 1800F degrees to melt the physical silver inside.  Not too sure about the survival of the bitcoin private keys on those computers though.

The most profitable cloud-mining from Siberia
Verified mining provider
No commissions
Everyday payouts
First payout in 1 hour
24\7 online support
Grab your
12% off
Sign Up
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1561627178
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561627178

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561627178
Reply with quote  #2

1561627178
Report to moderator
1561627178
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561627178

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561627178
Reply with quote  #2

1561627178
Report to moderator
1561627178
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1561627178

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1561627178
Reply with quote  #2

1561627178
Report to moderator
PoolMinor
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1658
Merit: 1060


XXXVII Fnord is toast without bread


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 03:58:50 AM



nanobtc
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 392
Merit: 168



View Profile WWW
December 16, 2018, 04:28:32 AM

Pietilä's castle burning was mentioned here a while back, but I know it can be hard to keep up. Here's a Google Translate of Estonian news about it.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=et&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.delfi.ee%2Fnews%2Fpaevauudised%2Feesti%2Fsoome-bitcoini-paruni-eestis-asuvat-kinnisvara-laastavad-salaparased-polengud-alles-asja-poles-maha-malla-mois%3Fid%3D83721469&edit-text=
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1817


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 04:32:30 AM


Oh wow...No I did not hear about it. Thanks for the link.

I hadn't heard about that either. Good to hear he's doing alright though.


I don’t know if he is doing alright.  If he was doing alright then he probably would be participating in this forum, but his last post were filled with a lot of crazy talk and he was also accused of scamming people out of their money in some crypto game, too.  I don’t really follow, just going based on my memory of some of the last post that I saw from him and about him.
kingcolex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1876
Merit: 1178


OneHash.com - Mutual Betting & Casino


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 04:47:45 AM
Merited by Syke (1)

Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.
HairyMaclairy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1410


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 04:50:12 AM

Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.
kingcolex
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1876
Merit: 1178


OneHash.com - Mutual Betting & Casino


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 04:52:07 AM

Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.
I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.
birr
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 780
Merit: 518


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 05:17:34 AM

Simple solution. Take, say, 10% of your "new" profit on the way up.


Say you have 1000 as a baseline, you go up to 2000, you take out (2000-1000)*0.1 = 100.

Now you go from 1900 to 3900, and take out (3900-1900)*0.1 = 200.

That's what JayJaunGee told me he does, and that's indeed a very powerful strategy. I got almost 7x, and if I had taken 10% out I would be much more relaxed now.

This strategy allows you to become rich and protect you from becoming poor lol

Provides some insurance without gambling too much of your stash.

You can find an amount that works for you, including a similar ratio that is cashing out 1% for every 10% the price goes up.

Of course, if you might become less nervous as you are able to have bitcoins and cash stacked up, and accordingly, you might later begin to attempt to wait for BIGGER ranges.  

Some folks suggest that you might not want to cash out any BTC until it reaches at least a certain point, such as 2x or 5x, but in the end, it is good to tailor your own thinking and comfort level on the topic.

I structured some of my initial ideas around rpietila's simple sane savings discussion in this thread.  Ironic, perhaps, that he would be a "sane" recommender... hahahahaha

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=345065.0

Yes, that is a good strategy. I also use this strategy and I have been relaxed about the decline. I have started to scale back in now. It has all been house money for years now as I took out my original investment many moons ago.

Whatever happened to rpietila ?? He had a castle and went insane...or kinda lost the plot? He had some game or virtual world going as well. He made some really good posts years ago.
On an extremely volatile asset, assuming the price returns to the price at which you bought it, there is a trading strategy that makes a profit, as opposed to buying and holding (which would not profit in our example).
Here's a simple explanation https://blog.enigma.co/is-there-a-free-lunch-in-the-crypto-markets-c4aa331443f1

Imagine you start with $1,000, $500 in stock and $500 in cash. Suppose the stock halves in price the first day. This gives you a $750 portfolio with $250 in stock and $500 in cash. This is now lopsided in favor of cash. You rebalance by withdrawing $125 from the cash account to buy stock. This leaves you with a newly balanced mix of $375 in stock and $375 in cash.
Now repeat. The next day, let’s say the stock doubles in price. The $375 in stock jumps to $750. With the $375 in the cash account, you have $1,125…
… After a dramatic plunge, the stock’s price is back to where it began. A buy-and-hold investor would have no profit at all. Shannon’s investor has made $125.


If you do a little math, you'll find that transaction fees will kill this trading strategy.   If you pay transaction fees on the order of 0.2% (like crypto exchange fees), then balancing small moves like 5 or 10 percent will actually lose you money.  The asset has to be very volatile, and it's only worth rebalancing after big moves such as in the example.
Also, you're going to lose money in a bear market, unless you have the resources to hang on for years until the asset's price returns to where you bought it (if it ever does).
HairyMaclairy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1410


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 05:20:15 AM
Last edit: December 16, 2018, 05:55:01 AM by HairyMaclairy
Merited by infofront (2), mfort312 (1)

I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.

In your defence we do have a descending wedge reversal pattern (unconfirmed).  I just think it happens to be a trap.



https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal


I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020.  


Agreed it's prudent to watch our hopium intake, Hairy, but 2020 seems awfully long for a return to $6k. Granted, we had a nearly 2-year downturn after Mt Gox from 2014-5 with little to no good news, but as far as fundamentals go, 2019 seems ripe for recovery.

What are your assumptions on big ticket items? To name a few expected in the first half of 2019:

Van Eck/CBOE ETF (admittedly low chances)
Bakkt
Fidelity Digital Assets
Nasdaq Futures

Are you thinking these things won't happen or rather they simply won't make much of a speculative difference? Are you weighing your prediction primarily on prior halving cycles? Are you correlating with global stock market expectations?

I worry that speculative interest is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy of chart analysis and pattern matching. The 2014 overlay to 2018 is eerily similar, yes, but is this simply a case of humans seeking solace in pattern matching?

Meanwhile, the lightning network is exponentially expanding, BCash is conveniently self-immolating, blockchain investment and employment numbers are steadily increasing, etc etc.

Sure, miners seem SOL, nothing new there; but I suspect new miners will find new places to slurp up cheap/stranded power, further decentralizing the network.



I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  Keep in mind that $6k is almost a doubling in price. 

Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1988
Merit: 1240



View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:04:48 AM

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.

Sorry, most humans do not use TA to achieve consensus on price.
In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).
The only way I have seen examples of large money being made is by placing reasonably large bets (that are not portfolio crushing if they don't not work out, but extremely rewarding when they do work out) on less likely outcomes where you have some legally obtained informational advantage (say, you analyzed a particular situation from an angle that everybody else missed).
Example: Soros' bet against the pound, etc.

Personally, apart from btc, I am thinking of learning (or re-learning) how to short equities.
There will be lots and lots of opportunities to make money this way in the next 10-12 years.
Index funds are so dead in the water or worse going forward.

 
HairyMaclairy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1410


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:07:58 AM

Maybe I should say that TA is used in the absence of fundamentals

And fundamentals and informational advantages in Bitcoin are very few and far between.

That makes Bitcoin pure from a TA perspective
BobLawblaw
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1316
Merit: 1947


BitcoinTalk's Most Fabulously Gay Black Power-Top


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:14:42 AM

The next 24 hours are extremely critical.
criptix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1076


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:16:33 AM

The next 24 hours are extremely critical.


If i call a bottom now we will likely crash at least 50%.  Grin
Toxic2040
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 644
Merit: 1018



View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:16:51 AM

I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  



How would you characterize the sell off this past year? Are we really looking for $6k so soon? Might not just getting the miners back towards profitability be a good start? As for Taproot and Schnorr rings, isn't increasing fungibility also increasing the fundamentals?

I definitely think waiting for confirmation of your bias is a good thing however.
realr0ach
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 686
Merit: 296


#TheGoyimKnow


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:16:54 AM

Here's another interesting silver fact for evil Jew shill HairyMcLarry.  The price of silver before the hunt brothers pump in 1980 was $5.  World debt is now 25x higher than it was then.  As most people know, or rather some of you know, debt is the money supply.  One man's debt is another man's supposed asset and it's all interlinked.  

So just going by money supply/debt levels alone, it wouldn't even be strange for silver to be $5 x 25 = $125 an ounce right now.  Hell, it would not only not be strange, it would be perfectly normal.  And that's not even taking into account there's 1/4th as much above ground physical silver now as in 1980.  When you hear someone make the claim silver is the most undervalued and suppressed asset on the entire planet, they aren't joking.  
criptix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1076


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:18:05 AM

I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  



How would you characterize the sell off this past year? Are we really looking for $6k so soon? Might not just getting the miners back towards profitability be a good start? As for Taproot and Schnorr rings, isn't increasing fungibility also increasing the fundamentals?

I definitely think waiting for confirmation of your bias is a good thing however.

Difficulty is massively dropping.

Miners will be or are already profitable again.
jojo69
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1428
Merit: 1778


no FOMO


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:39:32 AM

Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.
I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.

sucker
HairyMaclairy
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 868
Merit: 1410


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:50:16 AM

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019. 


Toxic2040
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 644
Merit: 1018



View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:56:53 AM

Difficulty is massively dropping.

Miners will be or are already profitable again.

I thought I had read it was around $3.8k  I am not sure the difficulty has dropped enough for even $3.25k to be profitable. 

Anyway...it appears the WO's are vigilant and prepared for whatever may come. Well done hodler's. Hope you all got to try some of that weekend dip.

Good night.



mindrust
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 1470
Merit: 1435



View Profile
December 16, 2018, 06:57:36 AM

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019. 




New ATH in early 2021 is probably more than what many people would ask. Right now some people must be swearing that they are going to get out and never come back once they hit the price they bought in.  Grin This happens to most people (happened to me in 2014, I know how it feels) especially if this is their first time investing in a high risk/volatile asset like bitcoin.
Pages: « 1 ... 22063 22064 22065 22066 22067 22068 22069 22070 22071 22072 22073 22074 22075 22076 22077 22078 22079 22080 22081 22082 22083 22084 22085 22086 22087 22088 22089 22090 22091 22092 22093 22094 22095 22096 22097 22098 22099 22100 22101 22102 22103 22104 22105 22106 22107 22108 22109 22110 22111 22112 [22113] 22114 22115 22116 22117 22118 22119 22120 22121 22122 22123 22124 22125 22126 22127 22128 22129 22130 22131 22132 22133 22134 22135 22136 22137 22138 22139 22140 22141 22142 22143 22144 22145 22146 22147 22148 22149 22150 22151 22152 22153 22154 22155 22156 22157 22158 22159 22160 22161 22162 22163 ... 24365 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!