Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HairyMaclairy]

I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.

In your defence we do have a descending wedge reversal pattern (unconfirmed).  I just think it happens to be a trap.



https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:falling_wedge_reversal

I don’t think we will see $6k again before 2020.  

Agreed it's prudent to watch our hopium intake, Hairy, but 2020 seems awfully long for a return to $6k. Granted, we had a nearly 2-year downturn after Mt Gox from 2014-5 with little to no good news, but as far as fundamentals go, 2019 seems ripe for recovery.

What are your assumptions on big ticket items? To name a few expected in the first half of 2019:

Van Eck/CBOE ETF (admittedly low chances)
Bakkt
Fidelity Digital Assets
Nasdaq Futures

Are you thinking these things won't happen or rather they simply won't make much of a speculative difference? Are you weighing your prediction primarily on prior halving cycles? Are you correlating with global stock market expectations?

I worry that speculative interest is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy of chart analysis and pattern matching. The 2014 overlay to 2018 is eerily similar, yes, but is this simply a case of humans seeking solace in pattern matching?

Meanwhile, the lightning network is exponentially expanding, BCash is conveniently self-immolating, blockchain investment and employment numbers are steadily increasing, etc etc.

Sure, miners seem SOL, nothing new there; but I suspect new miners will find new places to slurp up cheap/stranded power, further decentralizing the network.

I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  Keep in mind that $6k is almost a doubling in price. 

[Biodom]

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.

Sorry, most humans do not use TA to achieve consensus on price.
In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).
The only way I have seen examples of large money being made is by placing reasonably large bets (that are not portfolio crushing if they don't not work out, but extremely rewarding when they do work out) on less likely outcomes where you have some legally obtained informational advantage (say, you analyzed a particular situation from an angle that everybody else missed).
Example: Soros' bet against the pound, etc.

Personally, apart from btc, I am thinking of learning (or re-learning) how to short equities.
There will be lots and lots of opportunities to make money this way in the next 10-12 years.
Index funds are so dead in the water or worse going forward.

 

[HairyMaclairy]

Maybe I should say that TA is used in the absence of fundamentals

And fundamentals and informational advantages in Bitcoin are very few and far between.

That makes Bitcoin pure from a TA perspective

[criptix]

The next 24 hours are extremely critical.

If i call a bottom now we will likely crash at least 50%. 

[Toxic2040]

I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  

How would you characterize the sell off this past year? Are we really looking for $6k so soon? Might not just getting the miners back towards profitability be a good start? As for Taproot and Schnorr rings, isn't increasing fungibility also increasing the fundamentals?

I definitely think waiting for confirmation of your bias is a good thing however.

[realr0ach]

Here's another interesting silver fact for evil Jew shill HairyMcLarry.  The price of silver before the hunt brothers pump in 1980 was $5.  World debt is now 25x higher than it was then.  As most people know, or rather some of you know, debt is the money supply.  One man's debt is another man's supposed asset and it's all interlinked.  

So just going by money supply/debt levels alone, it wouldn't even be strange for silver to be $5 x 25 = $125 an ounce right now.  Hell, it would not only not be strange, it would be perfectly normal.  And that's not even taking into account there's 1/4th as much above ground physical silver now as in 1980.  When you hear someone make the claim silver is the most undervalued and suppressed asset on the entire planet, they aren't joking.  

[criptix]

I think the news doesn't matter in a bear market.  None of those will create any volume without demand, and there wont be any demand in a bear market.  Bakkt will achieve nothing meaningful in the short term.  It does open up new channels for when demand arises in the next bull run.  

TA is the way that humans achieve consensus on price.  The price is an expression of solace in pattern matching, that is the only way short consensus can be achieved (fundamentals drive long term consensus - except long term TA takes into consideration fundamentals).  The fundamentals driving long term price are primarily the halvening cycles, which is a supply side constraint.  Supply gets restricted, selling pressure on the market from miners eases, price goes rocketing up.  Its really that simple.  The correlation with legacy to date has been so low as not be worth worrying about.  

Yes Taproot and Schnorr are nice, but they are icing on the cake, not fundamentals.  

My take on the technicals is there is a lot of traffic to get through before you can get back to $6k.  That is going to require a really powerful event.  The current descending wedge is not it IMHO.  

How would you characterize the sell off this past year? Are we really looking for $6k so soon? Might not just getting the miners back towards profitability be a good start? As for Taproot and Schnorr rings, isn't increasing fungibility also increasing the fundamentals?

I definitely think waiting for confirmation of your bias is a good thing however.

Difficulty is massively dropping.

Miners will be or are already profitable again.

[jojo69]

Guys, guys, this isn't a normal shit bump, this looks like the beginning of a natural fucking recovery. Have we finished swimming in the shit?

I'm putting the 1 yes in the poll.

The bottom is fucking in.

Sorry dude we need to get through January tax time first.

I'm fucking feeling it, shits happening.

sucker

[HairyMaclairy]

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019. 

[Toxic2040]

Difficulty is massively dropping.

Miners will be or are already profitable again.

I thought I had read it was around $3.8k  I am not sure the difficulty has dropped enough for even $3.25k to be profitable. 

Anyway...it appears the WO's are vigilant and prepared for whatever may come. Well done hodler's. Hope you all got to try some of that weekend dip.

Good night.

[mindrust]

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019. 

New ATH in early 2021 is probably more than what many people would ask. Right now some people must be swearing that they are going to get out and never come back once they hit the price they bought in.   This happens to most people (happened to me in 2014, I know how it feels) especially if this is their first time investing in a high risk/volatile asset like bitcoin.

[Elwar]

I answered the poll honestly. I don't know.

I doubt anyone willknow until months later.

[VB1001]

Hashrate BTC is increasing
BTC  42.207 Ehash/s  +3.64% in 24 hours / (BCH 914.753 Phash/s  -7.71% in 24 hours)

[realr0ach]

I answered the poll honestly. I don't know.

The answer is:  more borders, build a wall, no jewry at all

[VB1001]

President Trump Names Bitcoin and Crypto Supporter As White House Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073703744766922754

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-advocate-mick-mulvaney-announced-new-chief-staff-president-trump/

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This is my best case scenario.  Purple line is 200 MA Weekly.  Under this scenario we break $6k in early 2020, maybe late 2019. 

New ATH in early 2021 is probably more than what many people would ask. Right now some people must be swearing that they are going to get out and never come back once they hit the price they bought in.   This happens to most people (happened to me in 2014, I know how it feels) especially if this is their first time investing in a high risk/volatile asset like bitcoin.

Exactly what I said to myself in 2014 after being over 50% in the red. All of a sudden we hit $19,xxx & I’m literally over 60 times my total investment........then greed took over & I sold fucking nothing.

It won’t happen during the next epic bull run, I can promise you that

[realr0ach]

President Trump Names Bitcoin and Crypto Supporter As White House Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073703744766922754

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-advocate-mick-mulvaney-announced-new-chief-staff-president-trump/

Well duh, because bitcoin is a govt created scam - a failed experimental solution to the inevitable outcome of the Triffin dilemma:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

Bitcoin's real name is "Bancor".  But it completely centralized immediately after release making it useless.  Not that it would actually be possible to get people to accept imaginary, valueless tokens over gold and silver when the system goes bust even if Bitcoin actually had some type of fundamentals (it has none because transaction validators are designed to centralize).  Metals are the Schelling point of money and none of these "Bancor" or SDR scams will ever work.  People are going to demand payment in real money and the acceptability of all these fiat 2.0 bancor scams is going to be zero.

And Bitcoin is not the only Bancor scam, they also have other garbage like Ripple too, and of course Goldmansachs backed Ethereum (RIP).  None of these things actually work in a decentralized manner, so we'll be saying RIP to all of them eventually with physical metals destroying them.

[PoolMinor]

In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).

A safe and sure bet would be to buy anytime between now and September 30, 2019 (about the time we will see 6k again); then hold until 2021-2022. Take profits as you must on the upswing.

I have already posted charts on the subject.

[realr0ach]

In fact, I posit that you cannot make really large amounts of money using TA (unless you are a computer, I suppose).

Of course you can, and it's not even hard, but you need to use leverage and you need an aggregate market to actually exist.  If there's no aggregate market, TA is a lot less useful and your only option is trying to determine what the tape painter/market rigger is doing.  Sometimes that can be even easier, sometimes a lot harder.  

The ONLY thing that holds me back in shitcoin trading is not that it's difficult to do, it's that there are NO TRUSTWORTHY EXCHANGES that you can put money on that have margin trading.  Who cares if you can make +5% or more per day trading shitcoins if at any second Bitfinex, Bitmex, or OKcoin will just steal your money leaving you down -100% instead of up anything.  Not that any trader with 2 braincells would trade on a rigged bucketshop like Bitmex in the first place.  And shitholes like Bitfinex are also rigged bucketshop casinos in practice.

Even if you attempt to trade non-margin on a supposed 'trustworthy' exchange like Coinbase, every time you log in they start asking you questions like "where did this money come", "prove to us where this money came from or we're going to freeze your account and take it", etc.

[VB1001]

President Trump Names Bitcoin and Crypto Supporter As White House Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1073703744766922754

https://coingape.com/bitcoin-advocate-mick-mulvaney-announced-new-chief-staff-president-trump/

Well duh, because bitcoin is a govt created scam - a failed experimental solution to the inevitable outcome of the Triffin dilemma:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triffin_dilemma

Bitcoin's real name is "Bancor".  But it completely centralized immediately after release making it useless.  Not that it would actually be possible to get people to accept imaginary, valueless tokens over gold and silver when the system goes bust even if Bitcoin actually had some type of fundamentals (it has none because transaction validators are designed to centralize).  Metals are the Schelling point of money and none of these "Bancor" or SDR scams will ever work.  People are going to demand payment in real money and the acceptability of all these fiat 2.0 bancor scams is going to be zero.

And Bitcoin is not the only Bancor scam, they also have other garbage like Ripple too, and of course Goldmansachs backed Ethereum (RIP).  None of these things actually work in a decentralized manner, so we'll be saying RIP to all of them eventually with physical metals destroying them.

The price of gold is related to currencies, deflation or inflation causing volatility at the price of gold, etf, derivatives, funds, etc, etc. therefore it is manipulated.
You do not convince me.



If Bitcoin is a reserve of value. (it's a supposition, it could be another currency in the future, but now it's BTC)

People ask? how to pay with Bitcoin if 1 BTC is worth $ 10,000

Easy, with satoshis units.

Bitcoin Max Supply (finite).
21.000.000 BTC

1 BTC = 1 bitcoin

1 BTC = 1,000 mBTC (millibitcoin) (1/1000 bitcoins = 0,001 BTC)

1 BTC = 1,000,000 μBTC (microbitcoin) (1/1.000.000 bitcoins = 0,000001BTC)

1 BTC = 100,000,000 satoshis

1 mBTC = 100,000 satoshis = 1.000 μBTC

1 μBTC (microbitcoin) = 100 satoshis = 1 bit (1/1.000.000 bitcoins = 0,000001 BTC)

1 satoshi = 1/100.000.000 (0,00000001 BTC)

How to buy bread with a gold ingot?

Of course, no one knows what is going to happen to the monetary system and its large unattainable global debt.

(My English level is very low, sorry if it is not well written.)