Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Heater]

This is amazing
https://twitter.com/cryptograffiti/status/1083570939353280512?s=21

Prints are available too

[1714906350]

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[1714906350]

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[1714906350]

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[kurious]

The bottom is probably not in, but it is also probably very close.  It could happen tomorrow or anytime in the next 8 months before the halvening starts to kick in.

We need a deep penetration of the 200 Week Moving Average to kick off an enormous volume spike that will seal the bottom of this bear market.  So basically we are sitting around waiting for one final, terrifying price crash.



If you want to wait until it is "safe" to buy, wait until the Moving Averages are all back in the correct order, eg 30 is above the 50 which is above the 100 which is above the 200.  This last happened in November 2016 around $420 which sparked the first real rally of the bull market.  The taupe and purple lines (30 and 50) were the last to uncross in November 2016.   It is reasonable to expect they will uncross again sometime in late 2019, early 2020 at latest.

All of this assumes we follow the model of the 2014 / 2015 cryptowinter.  To date we have followed it closely, so there is no particular reason to think we will not continue to do so.  

This is not investment advice, I am a drunk with hygiene issues and a degenerate gambler.

Hey Hairy, I always follow your TA with interest and play at my own, too. I too think the 2014 /2015 overlay is pretty close. 

So; while I agree Bitcoin did have to wait until Nov 2016 to really start the last bull run, it was in January 2015 that saw the last push down of the bears to new lows.  So, while things are not in the bull zone yet, do you not think it 'possible' (as my hopium-addled brain thinks) that this is finally the beginning of the end?

Personally, I am thinking a dull sideways, but slowly upward grind (sure, with fits and starts) from here to the end of this year. Not a bull run yet - but past the definitive end of the bear market. 

I have stuck my neck out with predictive and likely foolhardy posts in the past 24 hours, but I don't think the FUD is working any more, I think too many people think that even here is cheap - and I think too many people would rather buy at 3XXX and risk it dipping than be forced to buy at 4K or 5K if Bitcoin has a French Weekend when they aren't watching.

If there is to be a new ATH, according to pattern - with the order of increase we saw between the last two, then (to extrapolate) what is the difference buying at 3K or 2K if it might hit 50K inside 2 years?

[kurious]

During the next bull run (or black friday) I will have to order both the Trezor Model T and the Ledger Nano X. Unfortunately, I am currently too poor to even consider it.

ive had a trezor one for years and bought a trezor t last year. since the t was new ive only put a little on it so far as ive been waiting for the real world, out in the wild test before i really trust it as i do the trezor one. havent heard anything bad yet so its probably fine.

as with any important new tech or update in the crypto world i always wait a bit for others to test it 1st.

Am dithering too.  I have two Ledger S and a Trezor from many months back that are still in their packaging.  

I am just in paper wallets that are secure and laminated in fire proof and highly secure locations and now I am wondering how much of my time I want to spend working through a new tech learning-curve that I need to master when it is important enough I really have to take it very seriously.

The main reason I got them was that forks were a 'thing' - and the paper wallets were tiresome hassle for a while. Now it seems that era is over and they are just fine sitting there and being safe.

[Falcon Lover]

Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year

Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows.

Thank you in advance.

Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it.  Much more profitable.

I have thought about this, thats why I said I have orders to buy 3 more coins at 2k. Thats all I can afford to lose. It will bring my total investment to almost 40k. I will not invest another dollar after that. All ive known investing in Bitcoin is a terrible bear market and its hard not to worry as early adopters dump on my face , but thank you for the advice.

Im interested in hearing other Bitcoiners best argument(s) as to why the bottom is not in yet(i believe it isnt but hope im wrong). If you have one id love to hear it. If not thanks anyway.

The bottom is probably not in, but it is also probably very close.  It could happen tomorrow or anytime in the next 8 months before the halvening starts to kick in.

We need a deep penetration of the 200 Week Moving Average to kick off an enormous volume spike that will seal the bottom of this bear market.  So basically we are sitting around waiting for one final, terrifying price crash.

https://i.ibb.co/drs0p1x/Missing-volume.png

If you want to wait until it is "safe" to buy, wait until the Moving Averages are all back in the correct order, eg 30 is above the 50 which is above the 100 which is above the 200.  This last happened in November 2016 around $420 which sparked the first real rally of the bull market.  The taupe and purple lines (30 and 50) were the last to uncross in November 2016.   It is reasonable to expect they will uncross again sometime in late 2019, early 2020 at latest.

All of this assumes we follow the model of the 2014 / 2015 cryptowinter.  To date we have followed it closely, so there is no particular reason to think we will not continue to do so.  

This is not investment advice, I am a drunk with hygiene issues and a degenerate gambler.

This is the best answer I have seen, thank you. I do not know what is wrong with the weird Ballerina guy but I used the ignore button on him. I do not want to interact with rude people. I just opened a small short and will look out for that volume spike.

[JayJuanGee]

During the next bull run (or black friday) I will have to order both the Trezor Model T and the Ledger Nano X. Unfortunately, I am currently too poor to even consider it.

ive had a trezor one for years and bought a trezor t last year. since the t was new ive only put a little on it so far as ive been waiting for the real world, out in the wild test before i really trust it as i do the trezor one. havent heard anything bad yet so its probably fine.

as with any important new tech or update in the crypto world i always wait a bit for others to test it 1st.

Am dithering too.  I have two Ledger S and a Trezor from many months back that are still in their packaging.  

I am just in paper wallets that are secure and laminated in fire proof and highly secure locations and now I am wondering how much of my time I want to spend working through a new tech learning-curve that I need to master when it is important enough I really have to take it very seriously.

The main reason I got them was that forks were a 'thing' - and the paper wallets were tiresome hassle for a while. Now it seems that era is over and they are just fine sitting there and being safe.

I bought both the Ledger Nano S and the Trezor one in August 2017 for attempting to deal with aspects of the bcash fork, and some anticipation, as you mentioned, that there could be some additional forkenings - which I did split off my bgold (aka bitcoin gold) in about December 2017 or maybe it was January 2018.  

Anyhow, even though the forkenings seem to have become increasingly less relevant in the past year or so, I found that the process of learning about both the ledger and the trezor to have been quite helpful to my better understanding how to manage my personal keys - but also that there was a kind of regret that I had not gotten those hardware wallets earlier (maybe it is the vapourminer "wait and see" scenario in me, to let others test them out first?).    

Currently it seems that going to hardware wallets has helped me to feel a bit more confident in the security of my coins and my ability to personally manage a decent portion of my stash.

[Last of the V8s]

Ин yaлл oбзepвep, yйpд бaлeт дaнcep интepэкт yитъ ю.

[El duderino_]

I was expecting a 200$ PUMP

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

I consider myself to be honest and my intention are to stay HONEST, BTC keeps us honest
Though the pharmacist responded to me once, after I Said to be trustworthy .... if you say that about yourself Then its most likely hard to belief or so ( HE DOESN’T KNOW US HATMEMBERS)

But I do think as well BTC=honest money

[gembitz]

fuck that guy

Who ? The artist I posted about just above your post ?
He's a nocoiner ?

yes him. he wrote 'bitcoin - tulipmania is back' on his craft project

Oh ok, got it.

This one's much better then :



It's an homage to Finney's tweet from 10 years ago.
The artist calls himself cryptograffiti.

Repurposed credit cards sit atop a used bank safety deposit box.

Inside is a customized Casa Node allowing you to "run bitcoin.”

Embedded is Hal's signed card given to me by his wife Fran.

The WiFi-enabled node is adhered to only run when paired w/ the art.

The work is up for auction, 10 years after his famous tweet.

50% of the proceeds will go to the ALS Association Golden West Chapter who supported Hal during his battle w/ Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

A limited-edition of 100 signed and numbered prints on aqueous pigment fine art, semi-gloss archival rag are available here.

A heartfelt thank you to the Casa Inc. team for collaborating, to Fran, and of course to Hal for his important contributions in a space that means so much to so many of us. RIP

cryptograffiti

+1    >> r.i.p. Hal = og bitcoin gangsta!!

[nikauforest]

Ok so Ive been invested in BTC since 2018 with an average cost basis of about 8k per coin. Sadly I dont see how we arent going to have at least one more huge move down well below 3k. I have orders to buy 3 more coins if we hit 2k. I dont want to sell rn but I am considering taking out a short position here. I believe in Bitcoin, but Im tired of so much losing in my first year

Could a few members help me out and post their best argument for why we already saw the bottom, or their best argument of why we are gonna have another big move to new lows.

Thank you in advance.

Stop worrying about shorting the final gasp of the bear market and start thinking about when you are going to long the bottom and how you are going to do it.  Much more profitable.

I have thought about this, thats why I said I have orders to buy 3 more coins at 2k. Thats all I can afford to lose. It will bring my total investment to almost 40k. I will not invest another dollar after that. All ive known investing in Bitcoin is a terrible bear market and its hard not to worry as early adopters dump on my face , but thank you for the advice.

Im interested in hearing other Bitcoiners best argument(s) as to why the bottom is not in yet(i believe it isnt but hope im wrong). If you have one id love to hear it. If not thanks anyway.

The bottom is probably not in, but it is also probably very close.  It could happen tomorrow or anytime in the next 8 months before the halvening starts to kick in.

We need a deep penetration of the 200 Week Moving Average to kick off an enormous volume spike that will seal the bottom of this bear market.  So basically we are sitting around waiting for one final, terrifying price crash.



If you want to wait until it is "safe" to buy, wait until the Moving Averages are all back in the correct order, eg 30 is above the 50 which is above the 100 which is above the 200.  This last happened in November 2016 around $420 which sparked the first real rally of the bull market.  The taupe and purple lines (30 and 50) were the last to uncross in November 2016.   It is reasonable to expect they will uncross again sometime in late 2019, early 2020 at latest.

All of this assumes we follow the model of the 2014 / 2015 cryptowinter.  To date we have followed it closely, so there is no particular reason to think we will not continue to do so.  

This is not investment advice, I am a drunk with hygiene issues and a degenerate gambler.

I agree with you HairyMaclairy. My chart work posted yesterday is essentially looking for that final low as well. You gave good advice for those who want to be "safe"... referring to the moving averages.

[Biodom]

I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?

I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.

[El duderino_]

fuck that guy

Who ? The artist I posted about just above your post ?
He's a nocoiner ?

yes him. he wrote 'bitcoin - tulipmania is back' on his craft project

Oh ok, got it.

This one's much better then :



It's an homage to Finney's tweet from 10 years ago.
The artist calls himself cryptograffiti.

Repurposed credit cards sit atop a used bank safety deposit box.

Inside is a customized Casa Node allowing you to "run bitcoin.”

Embedded is Hal's signed card given to me by his wife Fran.

The WiFi-enabled node is adhered to only run when paired w/ the art.

The work is up for auction, 10 years after his famous tweet.

50% of the proceeds will go to the ALS Association Golden West Chapter who supported Hal during his battle w/ Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis.

A limited-edition of 100 signed and numbered prints on aqueous pigment fine art, semi-gloss archival rag are available here.

A heartfelt thank you to the Casa Inc. team for collaborating, to Fran, and of course to Hal for his important contributions in a space that means so much to so many of us. RIP

cryptograffiti

+1    >> r.i.p. Hal = og bitcoin gangsta!!

Why +1
??
Just send him your merit load dumbf***...... ain’t doing shit with it

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[Biodom]

I agree with you HairyMaclairy. My chart work posted yesterday is essentially looking for that final low as well. You gave good advice for those who want to be "safe"... referring to the moving averages.

it is not going to happen the same way as last time, this is pretty much a given; it could rhyme, though.

[El duderino_]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/1083746462419308544?s=21

[Arriemoller]

I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?

I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.

Yes you can have credit. Credit just means that someone else is paying for you.
They simply pay your bills with their own money/bitcoins and then you pay them back at the end of the month or whenever the bill is due. It's just another word for loan.

However, a real loan, over several years, would be impossible to pay back if you get paid  in fiat and would have to convert to bitcoin every payment because of bitcoins rapid deflation. But that's another question.

[El duderino_]

Into HODLhibernate

Buy and hodl
WO brothers

And goodnight

[Toxic2040]

Ин yaлл oбзepвep, yйpд бaлeт дaнcep интepэкт yитъ ю.

Moй paзгoвopный pyccкий дoвoльнo плoxoй .. ты тoлькo чтo cкaзaл пoд pyкoвoдcтвoм бaлepины?
Tы пьян.

lol'd

+1 WOsMerit

-------

I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?

I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.

Yes you can have credit. Credit just means that someone else is paying for you.
They simply pay your bills with their own money/bitcoins and then you pay them back at the end of the month or whenever the bill is due. It's just another word for loan.

However, a real loan, over several years, would be impossible to pay back if you get paid  in fiat and would have to convert to bitcoin every payment because of bitcoins rapid deflation. But that's another question.

There are and have been many btc loan services AFAICR. I think its the enforcement on default debitor's that is the problem. What recourse does a lender have if someone absconds with your coin? Civil litigation is expensive and time consuming in the US anyway. I think it far to easy for someone to run a long con to consider using larger amounts. Micro loans and payday loans could probably be profitable within the right jurisdictions. I guess it all really comes back down to having a "trusted" third party as a intermediary handling your private keys...   Not many bitcoiners favorite thing imho. A smart contract layer will probably solve many of these issues.

[P_Shep]

This is what I use:
via Imgflip Meme Generator

Yeah, cost me $3718.

In fact nearly $20k at one point...

[bitcoincidence]

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/hodlonaut/status/1083746462419308544?s=21

I admire your efforts to keep the moral high but doing so in this thread that is something like the "Hodler's Central Committee" is like quoting Marx and Lenin on billboards in a communist country ...