Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[stadus]

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

[Last of the V8s]

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

Welcome! You'll find we muck about off-topic a lot, but there is some price discussion occasionally. The poll is almost always far too bullish and doesn't represent the predictions people put their names to. Current consensus seems to be that we will drag along this bottom till June or so, maybe with a ghastly stab lower sometime, then begin to grind up very slowly through all the resistance levels.

[slowlyslowly]

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

no the polls are a sport in themselves - roughly the same % always go for the bottom price category and another but different % for the top price category. many of these peop[le i suspect pick the extremes just for fun no matter what they truly believe so the genuine number of true guesses is alot smaller say 60% of the total. Then the ranges in many categories in the middle are quite small comparing how the price drifts around so all in all I think 7 people getting it right is actually ok/normal and says nothing about the peoples vies on future moves (pump or otherwise). but then you already knew that ..............

[stadus]

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

Welcome! You'll find we muck about off-topic a lot, but there is some price discussion occasionally. The poll is almost always far too bullish and doesn't represent the predictions people put their names to. Current consensus seems to be that we will drag along this bottom till June or so, maybe with a ghastly stab lower sometime, then begin to grind up very slowly through all the resistance levels.

Thanks, I'm also bullish but I'd like to think more realistic now, I'm kinda bias with myself although I can feel that price might go lower from it's current range. Maybe it's normal to be bias for long term investor compared to a day trader where they are more realistic as they can make money regardless of the market condition.

You guys are day trading here?

[Bitcoinaire]

Repost of a classic chart (source unknown):

Another thing, the 2010 to 2011 data is not useful. This chart is just bears being greedy at the end of the cycle.

[Biodom]

A historic perspective on the last sharp bottom and a flat afterwards (circa 2015).

1. A post on the very bottom day:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10146987#msg10146987
Well, they do panic during bottoms, indeed.

2. A couple of months later some people were already predicting better things (32K, not 20K, but it is close; JJG agreed, BTW):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10657883#msg10657883
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10658020#msg10658020

3. by summer 2015 some gave up hope (for a bull):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg11561452#msg11561452

4. others are cool... I am looking at you, LFC_Bitcoin:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg11770952#msg11770952

5. then Stolfi came in to rub it in during September, 2015.

6. Then, the bull suddenly happened.

It might not repeat, but I sure hope that it would rhyme with the last bull.

P.S. i only looked at a few dozen posts or so, randomly chosen, just by jumping between pages. if you had a deep insight during that time about going to 20K in 2-2.5 years, please share.

[Last of the V8s]

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

Welcome! You'll find we muck about off-topic a lot, but there is some price discussion occasionally. The poll is almost always far too bullish and doesn't represent the predictions people put their names to. Current consensus seems to be that we will drag along this bottom till June or so, maybe with a ghastly stab lower sometime, then begin to grind up very slowly through all the resistance levels.

Thanks, I'm also bullish but I'd like to think more realistic now, I'm kinda bias with myself although I can feel that price might go lower from it's current range. Maybe it's normal to be bias for long term investor compared to a day trader where they are more realistic as they can make money regardless of the market condition.

You guys are day trading here?

The day traders I listen to most are constantly battling their pro-bitcoin bias and a lot of them end up trading legacy because it's easier to be dispassionate. Most here are momentum or longer-term traders or pure long-term hodlers and accumulators.
oh and you might need a hat ... they're all obsessed with their hats.
oh and reading your previous posts, you'll get laughed out of court if you say 'xrp is good' round here, unless you meant as a way to increase one's btc stash, which, maybe...

[Toxic2040]

A clear prediction, easy to check for correctness. With the usual graphs (I cut them out). You spoil us by making this thread look as if we were watching prices. I was surprised when I saw you'd become a hero. Could have sworn you were already.

Indeed..it shall become fairly obvious quite quickly I imagine. I will even go so far as to put forth a couple of dates. I believe we will see a dip between April 30th and July 8th. By November 5th you will probably want to be in as much as you can risk. The top of the next cycle will culminate around December 21st, 2021 between $79.5k and $330k. I know these are a broad range of dates and prices but I want you guy's to do some work.

+1 WOsMerit

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

Welcome...thanks for stopping in. The poll is a great source of infomation..it accurately provides proof that only about 5% at the Wall know what the hell they are talking about. Typical in much of society imo.

+1 WOsMerit

Welcome! You'll find we muck about off-topic a lot, but there is some price discussion occasionally. The poll is almost always far too bullish and doesn't represent the predictions people put their names to. Current consensus seems to be that we will drag along this bottom till June or so, maybe with a ghastly stab lower sometime, then begin to grind up very slowly through all the resistance levels.

I cant keep meriting you or they might suspect something..

+1 WOsMerit for the f*ck of it.

no the polls are a sport in themselves - roughly the same % always go for the bottom price category and another but different % for the top price category. many of these peop[le i suspect pick the extremes just for fun no matter what they truly believe so the genuine number of true guesses is alot smaller say 60% of the total. Then the ranges in many categories in the middle are quite small comparing how the price drifts around so all in all I think 7 people getting it right is actually ok/normal and says nothing about the peoples vies on future moves (pump or otherwise). but then you already knew that ..............

+1 WOsMerit

Throwing opsec to the wind I give you an actual image of members of the Wall sitting around the hopium hooka engaged in daytarding.

[jojo69]

You guys are day trading here?

day tarding


with Naboo Randolph Ropitibopiti the Enigma

[Toxic2040]

 
jojo gets me

+1 WOsMerit

Another thing, the 2010 to 2011 data is not useful. This chart is just bears being greedy at the end of the cycle.

I agree completely, and that first data set is the basis of the rest of their regression. Sloppy.

+1 WOsMerit

[JayJuanGee]

Cylinder Maximalist

 Don't worry, I have a plan for our little friend.  No whitepaper yet but I think those are overkill and cause a lot of unnecessary infighting.



edit: VeeCash! VeeCash! VeeCash!

The latest "me too" language regards "maximalism" is within a range of social acceptability, and if you really want to insult V8, you gotta label him as a cylinder "extremist" hahahahaha 

I like that:  "VeeCash! VeeCash! VeeCash!"  Vroom, Vroom.

[HairyMaclairy]

Internal Combustion Jihadist

[infofront]

Repost of a classic chart (source unknown):

-img snipped-

wut dis?



I suspect the answer might be in here.

https://ellaurora.com/about-us

https://twitter.com/KunalDaSen/status/1029016530640625664

Also, I realized I first heard about it from Anonymint. His analysis of the chart is here

[JayJuanGee]

The 21 million limit and block reward reductions are not set in stone. All it takes is consensus and these things can be changed.

Easier said than done.  Good luck with those kinds of core change proposals that you believe to be so potentially malleable.

21 words. No appearance of "seemingly", still with substitutes of sorts ("you believe to be so potentially"). That's some progress. Due where's due. Missing GTFO though.

Hey!!!!  I am not a monolith.  I have systemic variance.   

[JayJuanGee]

I'm new to this thread and I plan to stay to know your opinion about the BTC movement and possible future movements.
Based on the https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/, the closing price of BTC/USD was $3,706 and unfortunately only 7 of the total poll voters were right, I guess it says that majority still believe we will see big pump early this year.

Welcome! You'll find we muck about off-topic a lot, but there is some price discussion occasionally. The poll is almost always far too bullish and doesn't represent the predictions people put their names to. Current consensus seems to be that we will drag along this bottom till June or so, maybe with a ghastly stab lower sometime, then begin to grind up very slowly through all the resistance levels.

Thanks, I'm also bullish but I'd like to think more realistic now, I'm kinda bias with myself although I can feel that price might go lower from it's current range. Maybe it's normal to be bias for long term investor compared to a day trader where they are more realistic as they can make money regardless of the market condition.

You guys are day trading here?

Welcome, stadus.

It would not be fair to label participants in this thread as a monolith.  

[jojo69]

[JayJuanGee]

A historic perspective on the last sharp bottom and a flat afterwards (circa 2015).

1. A post on the very bottom day:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10146987#msg10146987
Well, they do panic during bottoms, indeed.

2. A couple of months later some people were already predicting better things (32K, not 20K, but it is close; JJG agreed, BTW):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10657883#msg10657883
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg10658020#msg10658020

3. by summer 2015 some gave up hope (for a bull):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg11561452#msg11561452

4. others are cool... I am looking at you, LFC_Bitcoin:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg11770952#msg11770952

5. then Stolfi came in to rub it in during September, 2015.

6. Then, the bull suddenly happened.

It might not repeat, but I sure hope that it would rhyme with the last bull.

P.S. i only looked at a few dozen posts or so, randomly chosen, just by jumping between pages. if you had a deep insight during that time about going to 20K in 2-2.5 years, please share.

Surely, Biodom, you have to take any of the comments of any particular poster during that time (and even today) with a considerably LARGE grain of salt, and even question whether any of those individual comments, snapshot at that particular moment, would have been reflective of thread sentiments as a whole.

By the way, from about late 2014, until his departure from the forum in about late 2016, Adamstgbit was continuing to predict $32k in 1 year or 2 years, and of course there was a bit of a variation in his predictive assertions depending how much of a drunken troll mood he was in and he even kept some of those kinds of predictions up, even when he had become more obsessively BIG blocktard embittered and maniacal about this forum supposedly being "censored."

[Wekkel]

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-will-still-bite-the-dust

An inferior product cannot survive

Thats why we still have http and html 

[kurious]

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-will-still-bite-the-dust

An inferior product cannot survive

Thats why we still have http and html 

So he said 'Bitcoin will bite the dust' in 2015.

Now he says 'Bitcoin will still bite the dust' in 2019.

Bullish.

[Globb0]

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-will-still-bite-the-dust

An inferior product cannot survive

Thats why we still have http and html 

So he said 'Bitcoin will bite the dust' in 2015.

Now he says 'Bitcoin will still bite the dust' in 2019.

Bullish.

Bitcoin will bite the dust, perhaps on the day the planet is destroyed? or maybe sometime before that. Dust n bones.