Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

[1713293499]

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[1713293499]

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[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Like I said.. neither I nor bitcoin gives a shit about your macro theory value flow projections.  Why don't you go take them to another thread?  You trying to save us from bitcoin, and no one here cares.

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

Ditto from above. so fucking what.  Good luck with your projections about how all of these matters are all going to play out in the coming years.  I see no need to hedge with gold or silver, but you do seem to see a need, so good like fining $20k per once on your gold in the coming years.... but much more likely that bitcoin is going to well surpass those price levels in the coming years.

[Dabs]

You can sell like, $50k USD worth every week, or in some not-too-distant-future, that would be about 4.3 BTC per month. If you wanted to, you could do multiple withdrawals from several different bitcoin ATMs every day. It could take you several months or years to completely deplete your stash if you had a sizable amount to begin with.

Then you can keep the rest and wait it out. In the mean time, you go play with your money and put it in all sorts of traditional fiat investments just so you have something to do. (or put it into all the crypto ETFs that are about to come out.)

[g-uid]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

[HairyMaclairy]

It feels like we are running about 2 - 3 months ahead of schedule.  Maybe we will start rallying in July instead of waiting until October.

[Hueristic]

meanwhile https://twentytwowords.com/edible-anus-company-makes-chocolate-molds-loved-ones-butthole/

Too bad I can't unsee it dammit...  

HAH, I knew better than to click on that!

4 days behind now, fuk,

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

It's always these two star posters nobody has ever heard of coming out of the woodwork saying "don't listen to the r0ach post, it's a lie!11".  Then they can't even explain what is supposedly incorrect about that factual explanation of the current economic system.

[bitserve]

How old are you r0ach?

[realr0ach]

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.  Oh, Mike Novogratz is shilling out of his mind for bitcoin again.  It must be time for another leg down.

[bitserve]

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.

Assuming that is true... My second question is... Have you always been so obsessed about your "views" or is it something more recent as in "you finally saw the light"?

[Hueristic]

I lived in China for about six months.  In Shanghai, in the French concession.  I was working for a company in the Jing'an district.  This gave me the opportunity to experience first hand what it is like to live in a country with little to no environmental regulations.  It has been awhile since I have been there so things may have changed a bit since but I have my doubts.

• I went out to the bars on Bund one night and came home piss drunk.  Hopped in the shower and was thirsty and drunk so took a big mouthful of water.  I nearly vomited and was instantly sober.  Shanghai tap water is disgusting - no one drinks it except the very poor.  It tastes like liquid metal with god knows what mixed in
• I was driving home in a taxi one winter evening and looked out the window at the beautiful snow fall.  Then I realised it was still well above freezing.  The falling "snow" was just fly ash from the local coal fired power station
• A friend of mine landed at the airport.  I went to collect her.  On the taxi ride into the city she commented on the moon which was high in the sky.  I told her 'no' that's the sun and its just smog that make it look dim.  We then had an argument about whether it was the sun or the moon.  I was right and she was wrong.

Here is a picture of what Shanghai looks like on a typical day



Here is a photo of Beijing, which tends to be worse than Shanghai



A pic from Shijiazhuang which is further inland





You guys might think that environmental regulations are killing the USA and UK, but I suggest the opposite.  A lack of environmental regulations are killing China and places in Asia.  All the rich Chinese establish anchor homes in the West, in part just so they can get away from the pollution.  

Think twice before you advocate for getting rid of environmental protections.  You might think that the EPA is communist, but it is truly awful living somewhere without proper environmental controls.  I was offered a pay rise if I would stay for another six months after my contract was up, but I got the fuck out of China and have never been back.  Once I got off the plane in the West and walked into the airport parking lot, all I could smell was this wall of fresh air and flowers.  That memory is absolutely seared into my brain after six months of living in smog.  




Some more information just so you don't think I am making it up:

Can I drink the tap water in China?

No, the tap water in China is not safe to drink. Unlike most western countries where there is easy access to safe tap water, in most places in China the tap water, although it looks clear, is not safe for drinking unless it has been boiled. Even in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, water from the tap is not well filtered, sterilized, or purified, and may carry hazardous contaminants like sediments, rusts, bacteria, virus, chlorines, or other heavy metals. Sicknesses like diarrhea caused by drinking unclean water may spoil your trip.

Source: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/water.htm

China's air pollution crisis shows no sign of ending as nation fails to lower coal use  10 January 2017

For the last month, severe air pollution has choked Beijing and coal is estimated to cause about 40 per cent of the smog in the nation's capital. Other cities in the north, such as Shijiazhuang, have recorded air quality of 1000 PM2.5. PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter that can lodge in the lungs and get into the bloodstream. The World Health Organisation says anything over 25 PM2.5 as a health hazard

 Source:  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/chinese-air-pollution-crisis-caused-by-ongoing-coal-use/8168702

Look at you, using all facts and shit, lets not have that crap get in the way of a good party line.

[realr0ach]

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.

Assuming that is true... My second question is... Have you always been so obsessed about your "views" or is it something more recent as in "you finally saw the light"?

You don't make money or prevent the loss of all your money by having "views".  I only care about what objective reality is.

[bitserve]

^ Not sure if you don't get it or you just want to deflect the question and keep going with your monologue as always.

To make sure it is not my fault, I will rephrase... Since when do you believe in that "objective reality" you keep repeating post after post... and since when did you became so obsessed about it?

[realr0ach]

^ Not sure if you don't get it or you just want to deflect the question and keep going with your monologue as always.

To make sure it is not my fault, I will rephrase... Since when do you believe in that "objective reality" you keep repeating post after post... and since when did you became so obsessed about it?

Of course it's your fault.  You're trying to distract from the factual information I was talking about then get upset I'm not dumber than you are and willing to be distracted by your troll post that's attempting to derail the subject. Almost all of your posts are like this - low quality and ineffective psychological ploys trying to direct or mislead conversation.  You're a Mexican for fuck's sake.  Do you think I'm actually going to be outsmarted by you?  I don't have any hatred of hispanics or anything, it's just absolutely laughable if they think they're going to fool me in some way.

[JayJuanGee]

You can sell like, $50k USD worth every week, or in some not-too-distant-future, that would be about 4.3 BTC per month. If you wanted to, you could do multiple withdrawals from several different bitcoin ATMs every day. It could take you several months or years to completely deplete your stash if you had a sizable amount to begin with.

Then you can keep the rest and wait it out. In the mean time, you go play with your money and put it in all sorts of traditional fiat investments just so you have something to do. (or put it into all the crypto ETFs that are about to come out.)

If you believe in bitcoin long term, then you don't really have to rush to withdraw, but of course, no one should be planning on living forever.

Traditional investment strategies presume an ability to withdraw 4% per year without depleting principle value (that can also be considered as 1% per quarter) - so the underlying assumption is that the value of the holdings, on average, are going to gain in value at least 4% per year average to make up for the withdrawal amount.    Therefore, in theory, so long as the underlying value of the asset continues to appreciate at least 4% per year, then you can continue your withdrawal plan infinitely at those 1% per quarter levels without depleting the principle.

Therefore, in theory, you are always withdrawing appreciation of the asset rather than the principle.  I find no reason that the same practices could not be attempted to be applied to bitcoin holdings because I believe that bitcoin has a decent chance of averaging at least 4% per year in value appreciation.  So, therefore, you should be able to apply the same withdrawal of value concepts, once you get to your withdrawal stage of your life. 

Of course, if you believe that you are not going to live very long (or you have a time target that you would like to deplete your BTC holdings that is sooner than infinite), then you can plan to withdraw more than 4% per year in order to draw down on the principle as well as the appreciation.

In essence, the more bitcoins that you have accumulated, the larger the amount you will be withdrawing.  Let's say, for hypothetical purposes by 2020, you project that you will have a balance of 50 BTC, and you want to begin your withdraw of 1% per quarter at that time for the next 10 years. 

Your withdrawal projection would look something like the below table:

Year           Quarter                    Balance             Withdrawal amount
2021              1                                50                   0.5
                      2                              49.5                 0.495
                      3                                 49.005   0.49005
                      4                                 48.51495   0.4851495
2022                 1                                   48.0298005   0.480298005
                      2                                 47.5495025   0.475495025
                      3                                 47.07400747   0.470740075
                      4                                 46.6032674   0.466032674
2023                 1                                   46.13723472   0.461372347
                      2                                 45.67586237   0.456758624
                      3                                 45.21910375   0.452191038
                      4                                 44.76691271   0.447669127
2024                 1                                   44.31924359   0.443192436
                      2                                 43.87605115   0.438760511
                      3                                 43.43729064   0.434372906
                      4                                 43.00291773   0.430029177
2025                 1                                   42.57288855   0.425728886
                      2                                 42.14715967   0.421471597
                      3                                 41.72568807   0.417256881
                      4                                 41.30843119   0.413084312
2026                 1                                   40.89534688   0.408953469
                      2                                 40.48639341   0.404863934
                      3                                 40.08152948   0.400815295
                      4                                 39.68071418   0.396807142
2027                 1                                   39.28390704   0.39283907
                      2                                 38.89106797   0.38891068
                      3                                 38.50215729   0.385021573
                      4                                 38.11713572   0.381171357
2028                 1                                   37.73596436   0.377359644
                      2                                 37.35860472   0.373586047
                      3                                 36.98501867   0.369850187
                      4                                 36.61516848   0.366151685
2029                 1                                   36.2490168   0.362490168
                      2                                 35.88652663   0.358865266
                      3                                 35.52766136   0.355276614
                      4                                 35.17238475   0.351723847
2030                 1                                   34.8206609   0.348206609
                      2                                 34.47245429   0.344724543
                      3                                 34.12772975   0.341277298
                      4                                 33.78645245   0.337864525

After 10 years of withdrawals of BTC at 1% per quarter, you still would have a balance of 33.78645245 BTC.  Nothing wrong with that, and the same formula to withdraw 1% per quarter will work, no matter what your starting amount.

[bitserve]

^ Good, now you are opening. But I am not trying to "outsmart" you, unless by that you mean that I am trying to obtain an honest reply from you for a yet undisclosed (but not particularly evil or malicious) purpose... which is something so blatantly obvious that couldn't be considered anywhere near a manipulation attempt.

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

It's always these two star posters nobody has ever heard of coming out of the woodwork saying "don't listen to the r0ach post, it's a lie!11".  Then they can't even explain what is supposedly incorrect about that factual explanation of the current economic system.

It does not matter whether you are lying or telling the truth.

First of all, you are off topic.

Second of all, you are the one who has the burden to persuade with both facts and logic regarding the truthfulness or accuracy of your position, and like I said several times previously, no one gives a ratt's ass about whether you are actually correct because - go back to 1 - you are off topic.

[realr0ach]

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2019/02/13/republicans-move-amendment-against-antisemitism-thru-house-unanimously/

The crooked and bought US congress passes unanimous 424-0 vote attempting to outlaw "anti-semitism", meaning illegal to criticize or boycott international Jewry because the goyim are scum and only Jews matter.  In case it wasn't obvious who controls the US govt, media, and banking system.  

What do you suppose the vote would on outlawing anti-caucasianism?  Probably 20-400?  The faster the Jewish occupied US govt, media, banking system, and everything else burns to the ground the better.  You are no patriot attempting to prop this shit up.  We might as well pray for Putin to just go ahead and launch the missiles.  He would be doing us a favor.

[bitserve]

^ Since WHEN have you been so vehemently obsessed about all that stuff? All your life? Decades? Only past few years?

[nikauforest]

I lived in China for about six months.  In Shanghai, in the French concession.  I was working for a company in the Jing'an district.  This gave me the opportunity to experience first hand what it is like to live in a country with little to no environmental regulations.  It has been awhile since I have been there so things may have changed a bit since but I have my doubts.

• I went out to the bars on Bund one night and came home piss drunk.  Hopped in the shower and was thirsty and drunk so took a big mouthful of water.  I nearly vomited and was instantly sober.  Shanghai tap water is disgusting - no one drinks it except the very poor.  It tastes like liquid metal with god knows what mixed in
• I was driving home in a taxi one winter evening and looked out the window at the beautiful snow fall.  Then I realised it was still well above freezing.  The falling "snow" was just fly ash from the local coal fired power station
• A friend of mine landed at the airport.  I went to collect her.  On the taxi ride into the city she commented on the moon which was high in the sky.  I told her 'no' that's the sun and its just smog that make it look dim.  We then had an argument about whether it was the sun or the moon.  I was right and she was wrong.

Here is a picture of what Shanghai looks like on a typical day



Here is a photo of Beijing, which tends to be worse than Shanghai



A pic from Shijiazhuang which is further inland





You guys might think that environmental regulations are killing the USA and UK, but I suggest the opposite.  A lack of environmental regulations are killing China and places in Asia.  All the rich Chinese establish anchor homes in the West, in part just so they can get away from the pollution.  

Think twice before you advocate for getting rid of environmental protections.  You might think that the EPA is communist, but it is truly awful living somewhere without proper environmental controls.  I was offered a pay rise if I would stay for another six months after my contract was up, but I got the fuck out of China and have never been back.  Once I got off the plane in the West and walked into the airport parking lot, all I could smell was this wall of fresh air and flowers.  That memory is absolutely seared into my brain after six months of living in smog.  




Some more information just so you don't think I am making it up:

Can I drink the tap water in China?

No, the tap water in China is not safe to drink. Unlike most western countries where there is easy access to safe tap water, in most places in China the tap water, although it looks clear, is not safe for drinking unless it has been boiled. Even in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, water from the tap is not well filtered, sterilized, or purified, and may carry hazardous contaminants like sediments, rusts, bacteria, virus, chlorines, or other heavy metals. Sicknesses like diarrhea caused by drinking unclean water may spoil your trip.

Source: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/water.htm

China's air pollution crisis shows no sign of ending as nation fails to lower coal use  10 January 2017

For the last month, severe air pollution has choked Beijing and coal is estimated to cause about 40 per cent of the smog in the nation's capital. Other cities in the north, such as Shijiazhuang, have recorded air quality of 1000 PM2.5. PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter that can lodge in the lungs and get into the bloodstream. The World Health Organisation says anything over 25 PM2.5 as a health hazard

 Source:  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/chinese-air-pollution-crisis-caused-by-ongoing-coal-use/8168702

Look at you, using all facts and shit, lets not have that crap get in the way of a good party line.

I have no issues with green policy. We need to be smart about it. For instance if we turned all of our cars to electric today, then we would only have a 50 year supply of lithium for batteries. My point is the earth is finite in every regard. You need rare earths for magnets for wind turbines etc. and the leaching process to refine mined metals is highly polluting. With a bit of effort you can minimize the pollution but you also use a hell of a lot of fresh water.

Let me give an example of bad policy. Natural gas is considered a clean transition fuel ( by most nations ) to get to the quote clean economy. New Zealand has passed laws to stop all new exploration /( consents by the government) to search for natural gas. This is a green labor deal. We go into a worldwide supply deficit for Natural Gas starting in 2020. China is or will be soon the world leader in renewable energy. They also realize using natural gas will help get them there. ( Good Policy ) Last time I checked they have plans to increase natural gas use while decreasing things like coal.

Green is good when it is intelligent. At any rate there is a ton of money to be made on the transition if you know what commodities will be valuable.

just sayin..