Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Funny I was thinking this earlier in terms of fungibility.

The interest you get from the bank is so they can use your money while you aren't right?

If a service was made to centrally hold bitcoin securely so you don't have to worry, it wouldn't risk the fund at all just cold storage as a promise.

But then, what? no interest?? in fact the opposite, how much will you pay per year for bitcoin fort knox. With guaranteed 1 for 1 you own it coins?

Some percent a year?

Yes, good one, but imagine a situation where you are a middle class guy/gal with a bitcoin stash from 2012 (not me, I bought much later  ).
You suddenly got 5, 10, 20 mil $$ in 2021-2025 from your 20 btc that you bought for a couple of hundred $$.
You still got no cash...
The size of your stash would probably cause you to sell a large %%, then try to explain where the immense hoard of $$ come from.
Retain good records, lol.

I don't see how that is a problem.  You can easily sell a little bit.  You don't have to sell the whole stash.  You sell enough to cover your expenses for the next few years... or you sell a little bit at various stages on the way up...  Where is the problem, exactly?

I think the fallacy is that you're supposed to sell everything at the top or you lose out.

Fair enough.

Seems like a gamblers mentality to me to be thinking that a BTC HODLer has to sell large increments of the BTC stash in order to profit from a BTC price run up, and sure I have no damned idea where this particular BTC price correction is going to stop (how low will we go), but when I sold incrementally all the way up to $20k, I had so much damned fiat that I did not know what to do with it.  And, I was only selling small amounts.  About 1% of my stash for every 10% the price went up (approximately).

   However, now after the BTC price came back down, a lot of that fiat that I had generated on the way up had gone towards repurchases of bitcoin.. ... problem solved about knowing what to do with all the extra money.... but even so, I did not have to buy back BTC with those funds, and I would have been fine with that, too. 

The main reasons that I bought back BTC back all the way down is that I already have a decent fiat cashflow, so the repurchase of BTC with sales proceeds from all that fiat that had been generated  had seemed as a decently logical application. 

Of course, in hindsight, anyone could argue that I should have waited to buy BTC back at $3,500 rather than buying at $15k and $12k and $9k and $7k and $5k..... and the various increments in between... but I kind of see the whole buying back of BTC on the way down situation as a BIG FUCKING SO WHAT?  It is part of a system that I already created for myself.. and there was no clear picture that the BTC price was going to continue to go down or to come down to the current price with decent odds of going lower, and that money that had been generated was partly intended for buying back of BTC.

So, if the BTC price goes up to $20k or $100k or whatever, I don't see what kind of problem that there is that BTC is not generating a separate cash flow, because anyone who is holding BTC can shave off any amount of BTC all the way up to those various price points at any amount s/he has and at any price point that s/he wants.  Not a bad problem to have been HODLing BTC if the price happens to go up, and the potential sales price is larger than the already known purchase price.

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee, why are you even talking about bitcoin like it's somehow going to be the new world reserve currency? 

You seem to be reading too much into my statement if you conclude that I am presuming BTC to become the new world reserve currency.

By the way, I am talking about bitcoin in this thread because bitcoin happens to be the topic of this thread.  Didn't you get the memo?

Do you really think Trump is going to get on TV and say, "Hey guys, the banking system just imploded and instead of reverting back to gold and silver as normal, I think we'll just go with this fly by night scam called bitcoin instead".  Do you really think that's going to happen? 

Do you really think that bitcoin, or even I when it comes to me thoughts about bitcoin, give(s) a ratt's ass about Trump? and what he says or does not say?

How and where does bitcoin fit ANYWHERE within the current financial system reset I outlined here?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg49730618#msg49730618

Who gives a ratt's ass about what you say?  More than half the time, you are framing any kind of bitcoin related topics into irrelevant nonsense distractions, which seems to be the case with your attempt to describe gold/silver as a superior store of value than bitcoin (under your hypothetical pie in the sky nonsensical assumptions). 

None of us needs to read your ongoing bullshit or to buy into your various frameworks about hypotheticals that are likely irrelevant, because bitcoin nor I give a shit about what you have to say.  Good luck with your gold and silver investments, and kindly take that discussion to some other thread or forum.  This thread is about bitcoin and discussion about how bitcoin's price dynamics are likely affected by a variety of factors including market movements, technicals, fundamentals, news and a variety of other topics, and most of us are completely exhausted by your attempts to make PMs relevant to such discussion when they are likely less than 1% relevant.

[smartcomet]

https://twitter.com/marwanelnakeeb/status/1095551567288246272

Humans are pattern recognition machines.

You're always remembering your past behavior & the outcomes of your past decisions. The environment & experiences you deliberately engage add up on the balance sheet.
"Self-esteem is the reputation you have with yourself."

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Like I said.. neither I nor bitcoin gives a shit about your macro theory value flow projections.  Why don't you go take them to another thread?  You trying to save us from bitcoin, and no one here cares.

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

Ditto from above. so fucking what.  Good luck with your projections about how all of these matters are all going to play out in the coming years.  I see no need to hedge with gold or silver, but you do seem to see a need, so good like fining $20k per once on your gold in the coming years.... but much more likely that bitcoin is going to well surpass those price levels in the coming years.

[Dabs]

You can sell like, $50k USD worth every week, or in some not-too-distant-future, that would be about 4.3 BTC per month. If you wanted to, you could do multiple withdrawals from several different bitcoin ATMs every day. It could take you several months or years to completely deplete your stash if you had a sizable amount to begin with.

Then you can keep the rest and wait it out. In the mean time, you go play with your money and put it in all sorts of traditional fiat investments just so you have something to do. (or put it into all the crypto ETFs that are about to come out.)

[g-uid]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

[HairyMaclairy]

It feels like we are running about 2 - 3 months ahead of schedule.  Maybe we will start rallying in July instead of waiting until October.

[Hueristic]

meanwhile https://twentytwowords.com/edible-anus-company-makes-chocolate-molds-loved-ones-butthole/

Too bad I can't unsee it dammit...  

HAH, I knew better than to click on that!

4 days behind now, fuk,

[realr0ach]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

It's always these two star posters nobody has ever heard of coming out of the woodwork saying "don't listen to the r0ach post, it's a lie!11".  Then they can't even explain what is supposedly incorrect about that factual explanation of the current economic system.

[bitserve]

How old are you r0ach?

[realr0ach]

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.  Oh, Mike Novogratz is shilling out of his mind for bitcoin again.  It must be time for another leg down.

[bitserve]

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.

Assuming that is true... My second question is... Have you always been so obsessed about your "views" or is it something more recent as in "you finally saw the light"?

[Hueristic]

I lived in China for about six months.  In Shanghai, in the French concession.  I was working for a company in the Jing'an district.  This gave me the opportunity to experience first hand what it is like to live in a country with little to no environmental regulations.  It has been awhile since I have been there so things may have changed a bit since but I have my doubts.

• I went out to the bars on Bund one night and came home piss drunk.  Hopped in the shower and was thirsty and drunk so took a big mouthful of water.  I nearly vomited and was instantly sober.  Shanghai tap water is disgusting - no one drinks it except the very poor.  It tastes like liquid metal with god knows what mixed in
• I was driving home in a taxi one winter evening and looked out the window at the beautiful snow fall.  Then I realised it was still well above freezing.  The falling "snow" was just fly ash from the local coal fired power station
• A friend of mine landed at the airport.  I went to collect her.  On the taxi ride into the city she commented on the moon which was high in the sky.  I told her 'no' that's the sun and its just smog that make it look dim.  We then had an argument about whether it was the sun or the moon.  I was right and she was wrong.

Here is a picture of what Shanghai looks like on a typical day



Here is a photo of Beijing, which tends to be worse than Shanghai



A pic from Shijiazhuang which is further inland





You guys might think that environmental regulations are killing the USA and UK, but I suggest the opposite.  A lack of environmental regulations are killing China and places in Asia.  All the rich Chinese establish anchor homes in the West, in part just so they can get away from the pollution.  

Think twice before you advocate for getting rid of environmental protections.  You might think that the EPA is communist, but it is truly awful living somewhere without proper environmental controls.  I was offered a pay rise if I would stay for another six months after my contract was up, but I got the fuck out of China and have never been back.  Once I got off the plane in the West and walked into the airport parking lot, all I could smell was this wall of fresh air and flowers.  That memory is absolutely seared into my brain after six months of living in smog.  




Some more information just so you don't think I am making it up:

Can I drink the tap water in China?

No, the tap water in China is not safe to drink. Unlike most western countries where there is easy access to safe tap water, in most places in China the tap water, although it looks clear, is not safe for drinking unless it has been boiled. Even in big cities like Beijing and Shanghai, water from the tap is not well filtered, sterilized, or purified, and may carry hazardous contaminants like sediments, rusts, bacteria, virus, chlorines, or other heavy metals. Sicknesses like diarrhea caused by drinking unclean water may spoil your trip.

Source: https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/water.htm

China's air pollution crisis shows no sign of ending as nation fails to lower coal use  10 January 2017

For the last month, severe air pollution has choked Beijing and coal is estimated to cause about 40 per cent of the smog in the nation's capital. Other cities in the north, such as Shijiazhuang, have recorded air quality of 1000 PM2.5. PM2.5 are fine particles less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter that can lodge in the lungs and get into the bloodstream. The World Health Organisation says anything over 25 PM2.5 as a health hazard

 Source:  https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-01-08/chinese-air-pollution-crisis-caused-by-ongoing-coal-use/8168702

Look at you, using all facts and shit, lets not have that crap get in the way of a good party line.

[realr0ach]

How old are you r0ach?

We'll go with Anonymint's claim of over 70 for now.

Assuming that is true... My second question is... Have you always been so obsessed about your "views" or is it something more recent as in "you finally saw the light"?

You don't make money or prevent the loss of all your money by having "views".  I only care about what objective reality is.

[bitserve]

^ Not sure if you don't get it or you just want to deflect the question and keep going with your monologue as always.

To make sure it is not my fault, I will rephrase... Since when do you believe in that "objective reality" you keep repeating post after post... and since when did you became so obsessed about it?

[realr0ach]

^ Not sure if you don't get it or you just want to deflect the question and keep going with your monologue as always.

To make sure it is not my fault, I will rephrase... Since when do you believe in that "objective reality" you keep repeating post after post... and since when did you became so obsessed about it?

Of course it's your fault.  You're trying to distract from the factual information I was talking about then get upset I'm not dumber than you are and willing to be distracted by your troll post that's attempting to derail the subject. Almost all of your posts are like this - low quality and ineffective psychological ploys trying to direct or mislead conversation.  You're a Mexican for fuck's sake.  Do you think I'm actually going to be outsmarted by you?  I don't have any hatred of hispanics or anything, it's just absolutely laughable if they think they're going to fool me in some way.

[JayJuanGee]

You can sell like, $50k USD worth every week, or in some not-too-distant-future, that would be about 4.3 BTC per month. If you wanted to, you could do multiple withdrawals from several different bitcoin ATMs every day. It could take you several months or years to completely deplete your stash if you had a sizable amount to begin with.

Then you can keep the rest and wait it out. In the mean time, you go play with your money and put it in all sorts of traditional fiat investments just so you have something to do. (or put it into all the crypto ETFs that are about to come out.)

If you believe in bitcoin long term, then you don't really have to rush to withdraw, but of course, no one should be planning on living forever.

Traditional investment strategies presume an ability to withdraw 4% per year without depleting principle value (that can also be considered as 1% per quarter) - so the underlying assumption is that the value of the holdings, on average, are going to gain in value at least 4% per year average to make up for the withdrawal amount.    Therefore, in theory, so long as the underlying value of the asset continues to appreciate at least 4% per year, then you can continue your withdrawal plan infinitely at those 1% per quarter levels without depleting the principle.

Therefore, in theory, you are always withdrawing appreciation of the asset rather than the principle.  I find no reason that the same practices could not be attempted to be applied to bitcoin holdings because I believe that bitcoin has a decent chance of averaging at least 4% per year in value appreciation.  So, therefore, you should be able to apply the same withdrawal of value concepts, once you get to your withdrawal stage of your life. 

Of course, if you believe that you are not going to live very long (or you have a time target that you would like to deplete your BTC holdings that is sooner than infinite), then you can plan to withdraw more than 4% per year in order to draw down on the principle as well as the appreciation.

In essence, the more bitcoins that you have accumulated, the larger the amount you will be withdrawing.  Let's say, for hypothetical purposes by 2020, you project that you will have a balance of 50 BTC, and you want to begin your withdraw of 1% per quarter at that time for the next 10 years. 

Your withdrawal projection would look something like the below table:

Year           Quarter                    Balance             Withdrawal amount
2021              1                                50                   0.5
                      2                              49.5                 0.495
                      3                                 49.005   0.49005
                      4                                 48.51495   0.4851495
2022                 1                                   48.0298005   0.480298005
                      2                                 47.5495025   0.475495025
                      3                                 47.07400747   0.470740075
                      4                                 46.6032674   0.466032674
2023                 1                                   46.13723472   0.461372347
                      2                                 45.67586237   0.456758624
                      3                                 45.21910375   0.452191038
                      4                                 44.76691271   0.447669127
2024                 1                                   44.31924359   0.443192436
                      2                                 43.87605115   0.438760511
                      3                                 43.43729064   0.434372906
                      4                                 43.00291773   0.430029177
2025                 1                                   42.57288855   0.425728886
                      2                                 42.14715967   0.421471597
                      3                                 41.72568807   0.417256881
                      4                                 41.30843119   0.413084312
2026                 1                                   40.89534688   0.408953469
                      2                                 40.48639341   0.404863934
                      3                                 40.08152948   0.400815295
                      4                                 39.68071418   0.396807142
2027                 1                                   39.28390704   0.39283907
                      2                                 38.89106797   0.38891068
                      3                                 38.50215729   0.385021573
                      4                                 38.11713572   0.381171357
2028                 1                                   37.73596436   0.377359644
                      2                                 37.35860472   0.373586047
                      3                                 36.98501867   0.369850187
                      4                                 36.61516848   0.366151685
2029                 1                                   36.2490168   0.362490168
                      2                                 35.88652663   0.358865266
                      3                                 35.52766136   0.355276614
                      4                                 35.17238475   0.351723847
2030                 1                                   34.8206609   0.348206609
                      2                                 34.47245429   0.344724543
                      3                                 34.12772975   0.341277298
                      4                                 33.78645245   0.337864525

After 10 years of withdrawals of BTC at 1% per quarter, you still would have a balance of 33.78645245 BTC.  Nothing wrong with that, and the same formula to withdraw 1% per quarter will work, no matter what your starting amount.

[bitserve]

^ Good, now you are opening. But I am not trying to "outsmart" you, unless by that you mean that I am trying to obtain an honest reply from you for a yet undisclosed (but not particularly evil or malicious) purpose... which is something so blatantly obvious that couldn't be considered anywhere near a manipulation attempt.

[JayJuanGee]

JayJuanGee, since your grasp of the present day economic system seems to be completely comical, let me spell it out really simple for you.  You're either going to have "UBI" and full-blown communism, or the bank's balance sheets implode through cascading deflationary collapse and metals are remonetized vastly higher to have any type of continuation of a monetary system at all.  

Under communism there is no usage of bitcoin.  In the second option, there is also no use of bitcoin.  No government on the planet is basing it's reserves and monetary system around bitcoin instead of physical metals.  If they used any type of digital shitcoin, they would be printing their own out of thin air and trying to force it onto you.  The Russians, Chinese, Turkish, Iranians, now Italy, and others have already formed an unstoppable pro-metals monetary system coalition in the first place.  The die has been cast.

You sir, are a monster. I just can't tell if you are trying or not.

It's always these two star posters nobody has ever heard of coming out of the woodwork saying "don't listen to the r0ach post, it's a lie!11".  Then they can't even explain what is supposedly incorrect about that factual explanation of the current economic system.

It does not matter whether you are lying or telling the truth.

First of all, you are off topic.

Second of all, you are the one who has the burden to persuade with both facts and logic regarding the truthfulness or accuracy of your position, and like I said several times previously, no one gives a ratt's ass about whether you are actually correct because - go back to 1 - you are off topic.