Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hodl_2015]

[...]
Once your initial investment is recouped it's remarkably easier to hold through it all. Source: me

Taxes help too:
Sell too soon: -> "trading" -> income -> 52% tax over profit. (and 1.2% property tax)
Hodl: -> "investment" -> interest -> 1.2% property tax over the Jan 1st Euro value of the bitcoins.
(a good nick helps too.)

[1713544021]

1713544021

[7thKingdom]

My thoughts are we have seen the end of coins from Mt Gox.  There will never be another coin that leaves because there aren't any left.  

I think the real question is, how much does that matter?

Lets say the price settles around $700 until gox next announcement (they said Monday they'll have an update, right?), at which time they basically come out and confirm they're done.  What would that do to the price?  As far as I'm concerned, the current rundown is already working under the assumption that any funds locked up in Gox are doomed.  So any official announcement by Gox may result in a very short term reaction downwards, but logically it should bounce back up close to current levels pretty quickly.

Simply put, I think it's a reasonable assumption to think that the current prices already have the worst case Gox scenario priced in (or at least, pretty close to it).  There would still be short term reaction to an official gox announcement, but any fall should see a pretty quick bounce back to current levels (by current, I mean wherever we end up Sunday/Monday before any official statement).

Whereas good news (aka people being able to move BTC out of Gox) would see a huge price spike, with the other exchanges following along at a less extreme, but still upwards, rate.

That said, I'm still hoping for some more downward pressure in the coming days leading up to an announcement by Gox.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hdbuck]

Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

[JorgeStolfi]

It's 3:00 am in China but a few bears and bulls are still fiercely fighting at Huobi. 

For a couple of hours it looked as if they would make a truce at 4600 CNY, but then a bull trespassed and fighting resumed over the nextt 100 CNY. Outcome is still uncertain.

Bulls have on their side a pesky robot that makes a 0.01 BTC transaction at the top of the spread whenever someone clears the road down  by dumping a few dozen coins.  Not fair.

Methinks people should pay more attention to Huobi.  In spite of all robots, I think that their price plots and transaction logs look more "natural" than those of the non-China exchanges. To me, it looks like the latter are trying to follow Huobi, but often over-react to its moves.

[windjc]

Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

Look. As soon as NYC regulators give guidance on bitcoin, within months we will see a fully licenses exchange with real professionals running it. This will be the beginning of the end of old unreliable exchanges. But this is a transition that will ultimately take a few/several years to fully complete, with professional exchanges in the major financial hubs around the world

[N12]

I would really be interested in a full exchange by Secondmarket if they take on international customers. Hope it happens.

[Mythul]

Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

Now this is big!!  Go SM! 

Great timing also. I've told you guys the whales won't let BTC ever go below $400.

[pietje]

Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

Now this is big!!  Go SM! 

Great timing also. I've told you guys the whales won't let BTC ever go below $400.

Yep,

Before you know we are back at 800.
Difference between Huobi and stamp is pretty big too. Makes me thing the ppl in china have alot more confidence about their situation.

[JorgeStolfi]

My thoughts are we have seen the end of coins from Mt Gox.  There will never be another coin that leaves because there aren't any left.  

I think the real question is, how much does that matter? [...]  What would that do to the price?  As far as I'm concerned, the current rundown is already working under the assumption that any funds locked up in Gox are doomed.

If "the oldest and once largest" Bitcoin exchange were to fold, hundreds if not thousands of people would probably lose tens of millions of dollars.  That would be news in mainstream media, and it would make it even harder to sell Bitcoin as a solid investment.  Without new investors, the price will not rise.

So the efects on the price would not be immediate, but would be spread out over the coming months.

Actually, my guess is that the current mini-crash was not caused or influenced by Mt.GOX's possible demise, nor by the Apple and Russia news.  Mt.GOX means nothing to the Chinese, and non-Chinese traders have grown immune to bad news, it seems.  I still think that it was the opening of banks in China that caused it.

[windjc]

Ok so it seems Gox is just going to be dead. Other exchanges are already getting ready to replace it from there.

-> http://www.coindesk.com/secondmarket-takes-first-step-to-becoming-us-exchange-with-new-seller-service/

Now this is big!!  Go SM! 

Great timing also. I've told you guys the whales won't let BTC ever go below $400.

Yep,

Before you know we are back at 800.
Difference between Huobi and stamp is pretty big too. Makes me thing the ppl in china have alot more confidence about their situation.

China doesn't care about mark karpales. Stamp is full of leveraged day traders who are looking to ride the waves.

[micalith]

loss of trust for exchanges due to getting goxxed might cause a short dip, but the pricing in of the Secondmarket good news should counter that in the medium term. Add to that, that people in the UK now no longer need to bother with exchanges to buy bitcoins (http://www.coindesk.com/can-now-pay-cash-bitcoin-28000-uk-stores/), plus China seems to be carrying on, I find it hard to see much more bearish sentiment from now on

[magicmexican]

didn't quite reach my bids. hope that wasn't my last chance to buy low!

Still a breddy gud price on stamp now i'd say

It was @720$, at least short-term i was correct :-D

[keithers]

The speed in which we have already pretty much recovered shows how resilient bitcoin is becoming, and how many buyers are waiting on the sidelines for a dip in prices to get into the market.

Coincidentally the major drops in prices usually comes in the middle of the night for US citizens.  I think i have bought most of my btc in the middle of the night, when I just happen to wake up and check the prices...

[fonzie]

So what did you expect a crash to 200$ in 30 minutes. We went down 200$ in 2 days, that´s quite a lot! And it only stopped dropping for a few hours and all of you are still convinced
that this is ultra bullish??? Your so called recovery was on low volume and doesn´t proof anything. Don´t feel safe, Karhu isn´t done yet.
This bear market will continue a lot longer.

[magicmexican]

every time the BTC rises after the crash ->
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKuMhpb1gOI

( till the next dump )

[Mythul]

So what did you expect a crash to 200$ in 30 minutes. We went down 200$ in 2 days, that´s quite a lot! And it only stopped dropping for a few hours and all of you are still convinced
that this is ultra bullish??? Your so called recovery was on low volume and doesn´t proof anything. Don´t feel safe, Karhu isn´t done yet.
This bear market will continue a lot longer.

Any idea when will the bear market stop ? Fonzie do you want BTC to crash that much ? 

[zby]

Anyone observes the bitfinex walls?

[podyx]

wtf all exchanges are down?

[PoolMinor]

~100 Hours Remain