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Question: 8/16 Closing Price (yeah, it's a Sunday):
0 - 2 (3.9%)
<$10,500 - 3 (5.9%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 1 (2%)
$11,001-$11,500 - 5 (9.8%)
$11,501-$12,000 - 11 (21.6%)
$12,000-$12,500 - 17 (33.3%)
>$12,500 - 10 (19.6%)
>$20,000 - 2 (3.9%)
Total Voters: 51

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21822228 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
Biodom
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June 01, 2019, 03:08:12 AM

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

The answer is already clear from some charts.
Main example: DB
This alone makes the stock market recovery, especially financials, as fake as it can possibly be.
Combine DB chart with its known derivative exposure and the upcoming story is quite clear.
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Lambie Slayer
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June 01, 2019, 03:08:25 AM

How late?

Vastly Shocked
WinslowIII
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June 01, 2019, 03:12:20 AM

Your fud

Okay, Mr. Digital shitcoiner.  You hoard all 21 million worthless digital shitcoins then artificially rig the price to $1 trillion each.  Now how do you get me to buy into your pyramid scheme or use them?  You can't.  You're completely powerless and the entire planet ignores you like you don't even exist.  

Your scam falls apart because it's a fake commodity - a fake commodity that can also be replicated infinitely to make things even worse.  Meanwhile, I hoard all the physical silver in the world playing the same game as you except my strategy actually works since it's a real commodity people actually need.  That's not "fud", that's reality.  A fake commodity grants you zero power and you stand around looking like an idiot, while a real commodity actually does grant you power.

If you really felt that this was worthless you wouldn't be here.

I got tired of seeing pathological liars shilling for centralized, non-fungible, permissioned ledger, digital scamcoins whose only possible endgame evolution is a replica of the Chinese social credit score system.  Anyone that doesn't want the govt trying to force the Chinese social credit score system on them has a dog in that race.

So you got tired of ...what now?
Sounds to me like you dumped the greatest investment in human history long ago and won't let it go.
Either buy back or let it go. Or, get better at fud if you are a paid fudster.
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June 01, 2019, 03:12:56 AM


After midnight you can slam Slammie Layer shots 2-1. Cant tell you whats in it though.
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June 01, 2019, 03:17:05 AM

Roach you never answered my serious question. Are you sexually attracted to females. Like if you see a hot female Nazi gold bug do you want to smash? Do you only admire males like Hitler?

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June 01, 2019, 03:27:39 AM
Merited by Arriemoller (1)

I remember 30 years ago...and I shall not forget.


#stronghands'19
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June 01, 2019, 03:29:54 AM

Like if you see a hot female Nazi gold bug do you want to smash?



nutildah
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June 01, 2019, 03:32:52 AM

I remember 30 years ago...and I shall not forget.


#stronghands'19

When I was in the Shanghai airport for a layover, the first thing I did was try to do a Google search for "Tiananmen Square." But, I couldn't connect to Google, so...


Everything Google- and Facebook-related was blocked. Also no Wikipedia.

I could access tor though. Didn't screw around too deeply for fear of being arrested for thought crimes.
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June 01, 2019, 03:42:29 AM

I remember 30 years ago...and I shall not forget.


#stronghands'19

When I was in the Shanghai airport for a layover, the first thing I did was try to do a Google search for "Tiananmen Square." But, I couldn't connect to Google, so...


Everything Google- and Facebook-related was blocked. Also no Wikipedia.

I could access tor though. Didn't screw around too deeply for fear of being arrested for thought crimes.



They are trying to erase it from memory. I dont think most people remember the Umbrella Movement let alone Tian'anmen Square.
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June 01, 2019, 03:46:28 AM

Like if you see a hot female Nazi gold bug do you want to smash?




Ok, just making sure, thanks for the answer.

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June 01, 2019, 03:56:09 AM

Yes it’s starting to feel like 2004 - 2006.  Record profits everywhere.  But that can run for a long time.

But what is the trigger?  It won’t be sub prime lending this time.  What is the legacy market financial WMD?

The answer is already clear from some charts.
Main example: DB
This alone makes the stock market recovery, especially financials, as fake as it can possibly be.
Combine DB chart with its known derivative exposure and the upcoming story is quite clear.

Lol.  Does DB really have a PE of 457 or am I reading the chart wrong?

Edit:  Double lol.  EPS $0.08.  Nope I am not reading the chart wrong.  

Ok, we have established that DB is a shitcoin.  What next?
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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June 01, 2019, 03:58:14 AM

New poll... finally something makes sense. (didn't vote bacon crap)

%20-40 is where I am right now. (north of 30)

I wish I had more but it is still better than most people i imagine.

btw that number constantly changes, it is %57 when btc hits $20k, and becomes %25 when btc is at $5k. :/

Probably makes sense to unload some when it is more than %80.

edit: aaand %80+ voters arrived. Looks like I am the nocoiner.


It is my tentative theory that most participants here who have accomplished a high percent of their networth in bitcoin have reached such high percentage status because of bitcoin's price appreciation, rather than such high percentage being from making initial contributions.

Take me, for example, I had an initial goal to achieve a status in which I invested about 10% of my quasi-investable value into bitcoin; however, once I established the 10% goal, in about late 2014, I continued to contribute most of my free cash to BTC on a kind of dollar cost averaging basis - and through 2015, since BTC prices stayed decently low (largely in the mid $200s), it seems that my allocation into BTC reached about 13% to 14%.. and yeah, I continued to invest in BTC and I continued to consider that my investment into BTC was moderate because it was merely my spare change, no more need for feelings of FOMO because I had reached my goal and had a decently reasonable stake in bitcoin.

But then BTC's prices began to go up, and like you said, the proportion became much higher than what I had initially intended.

yeah, many traditional (and smart investors) would advise that periodically, any prudent investor should redistribute back to the original authorized ratios, which would likely result in selling off a vast majority of the BTC profits - and thereafter largely taking away from profiting from additional upside BTC price performance through a kind of overconservatism.

Accordingly, I considered that whole redistribute periodically philosophy, and I decided that it was a bit stupid - because I had already established my other (non-bitcoin) investments, and I was good with those investments.. so why should I take from my bitcoin value and reinvest into various items that I already considered to have enough of those investments.

In the end, I believe that my creation of a system to incrementally sell some BTC on the way up compensates for my ongoing refusal to treat BTC as some kind of ordinary investment and to reallocate back to the original amounts.  I have no problem with that reallocation approach with my other traditional investments, which are largely index funds.

So yeah, mindrust, the overall value of the btc portion becomes outrageously imbalanced, and sure there could be some justification to pull out some value and to re-align such value with the remainder of my assets, to some degree... nonetheless the extent to which each of us is going to take extreme gambling measures is going to vary - and maybe some folks, who are not like me, in terms of already having a decently large non-bitcoin investment back, are going to want to establish some of their diversification through some traditional investment vehicles (and I am not talking about investing in shitcoins for the sake of diversifying).
JayJuanGee
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June 01, 2019, 04:10:31 AM

This year looks way different from 2015, he could be right.

Pish posh

Let's face it, the market is way bigger and way smarter than in 2015. And we all know what the halving does to the price long term. Think about it.
Doesn't mean it won't continue going upwards after the halving, but $30-$40k next May makes sense to me.

I think that you are trying to disagree with the wrong person.... don't you know you are communicating with Hairy the mac "daddy"?

Anyhow, you are asserting the obvious.

Of course, 2019 is different from 2015 for all the reasons that you said and more... yet there is similarity too... current btc prices are already moving in a fractal that accounts for a lot of what you refer, which is more than a 10x stepped up fractal.   

Yeah, there could be a decent amount of frontrunning of BTC's price this time around, but there are also likely going to be decently large resistance points along the way that includes taking several runs at various price points, such as $9k or $10k and likely some other higher price  points too, such as $16k-ish.
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June 01, 2019, 04:11:48 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

This chart has held up pretty well, and is one of the better logarithmic regression charts I've seen:



Even though it was created in March, 2018 the lower boundary was prescient in providing support at the ~$3,150 bottom.

There's an interesting pattern here, or I could be reading too much into it.
It appears there may be a fractal pattern in the bubbles. We got 3 bubbles in 2010-11 of magnitudes 1,1,3. Then 2 bubbles in 2013 of magnitudes 2,3. Then 1 bubble of magnitude 2 in 2017.
What comes next? Triple bubbles again?

An alternative answer might be that it's just decreasing volatility. If you think so, the recent price action would like a word with you.
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June 01, 2019, 04:13:19 AM

The answer is already clear from some charts.
Main example: DB
This alone makes the stock market recovery, especially financials, as fake as it can possibly be.
Combine DB chart with its known derivative exposure and the upcoming story is quite clear.

And this forum is filled with complete fools who think situations like that somehow benefit Bitcoin.  If DB, derivatives, and all the other shit goes bust, the world is obviously going back to metals as the base of the financial system. Trying to claim it will be Bitcoin instead is so asinine it defies belief.  Bitcoin currently functions as nothing more than a speculative gambling instrument, not currency, money, or anything else.  It's only able to attract fools to it because the majority of things on earth are in a bubble, so a few people toss money at the Bitcoin pump and dump instead.  

After a new Bretton Woods with gold being set to $10k and silver something like $500 or whatever, much of these other assets like real estate, shares, and everything else will be much lower priced and actually be viable to invest in again.  Bitcoin's competition for speculative money then goes up a thousand fold.  People will invest in land, businesses, and everything else instead of this imaginary, digital token garbage.
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June 01, 2019, 04:19:27 AM

If DB, derivatives, and all the other shit goes bust, the world is obviously going back to metals as the base of the financial system.

That's a fairly huge leap in logic.  Why would any Central Bank voluntarily remove its ability to print fiat?
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June 01, 2019, 04:21:39 AM

^Agreed. r0ach, I am disappoint.
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June 01, 2019, 04:26:08 AM

If DB, derivatives, and all the other shit goes bust, the world is obviously going back to metals as the base of the financial system.

That's a fairly huge leap in logic.  Why would any Central Bank voluntarily remove its ability to print fiat?

Because debt based fiat requires infinite growth or permanent interest rates of zero.  Demographics have peaked in every nation that matters as well as energy production and use, signifying the end of growth.  If interest rates are zero, dollars are not an asset because...they do not generate interest for who holds them whether it's a banker or an actual human.  

At that point it's inevitable dollars are ditched for metals instead because the metals are a real asset and dollars are not.  Staying on paper dollars with interest rates of zero - which is the paradigm we already have - just creates more malvinvestment to cataclysmically implode the system even harder.  A real asset has to be used to temper the malinvestment and to square international trade balances.  The longer you stay on paper notes with 0% interest rates, the bigger the implosion and likely higher required revaluation number for metals.  Metals win no matter what in the end.
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June 01, 2019, 04:33:36 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1)

I remember back in dec 2013 when btc hit $1200 for a brief time and it was a big deal that it finally was the same price as an ounce of gold. Now look at the price difference, so sad. You are lucky if your gold and silver even keep pace with inflation over the last 10 years. What a tragic thing to have sat on while all these cryptos have done what they have.
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June 01, 2019, 04:34:57 AM

You haven’t answered the question.  You have just restated your assumption.  

Why would a Central Bank move onto the gold standard?  Spell it out.
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