messenger, which means don’t presume I agree with the choice of wording or even the points made. Nevertheless the forum benefits from hearing all sides of an argument.
below 2k somewhere in 2021? This is insane.
*I can bet $1000 he is wrong
I guess it’s possible that the current poll could possibly be a contrarian indicator given that most are very bullish, possibly too soon. Where’s the widespread FOMO action to back up your (premature?) bullishness. These forums feel almost dead, although that might also be a bullish contrarian indicator. Some of
my scenarios have always had
BTC crashing into August, before rising again before the halving in May 2020. However I also had scenarios where this rogue wave would move much higher before crashing, such as $20k or even as high as $78k.
Yet in no case do I expect
BTC to drop below $4k now. And I expect
BTC to move to at least a double-top of $20k (if not much higher) before or by the halving May 2020, because Craig Wright will need for the difficulty to be very high so he can drive the Core shitcoin fork chain to a near standstill if he craters the hashrate with the donations taking incentive. He might be bluffing though.
So there is a scenario where @Husain_Zabir is perhaps closer to correct than most of you currently think. His thesis fits
my Rogue Wave thesis (where I had precisely predicted the possibly temporary top and pullback we’re experiencing), but I will explain that @Husain_Zabir’s
A and
B price levels are probably too low and his
C bottom target is probably too high. Also the Rogue Wave could possibly top as high as $78k. The low (presumably
BTC not $) volume on
@HairyMaclairy’s chart seems to indicate this current move is not complete.
Yet let’s revisit @infofront’s stock-to-flows valuation chart hypothesis which was based on
my speculation fractal modeling. I have added some black lines to his chart and also drawn in green the progression of the
BTC price up to July. I have also extrapolated in green-to-blue a scenario hypothesis on the price from now to the May 2020 halving:
Also my annotated chart of the
BTC price below indicates that this pullback has support at $10k, $8k, $6k and worst case $4k. Also note for the chart above that a ratio of
1 is $6250 until the halving.
Note as an alternative scenario that the pattern developing now (when zoomed in on my chart above), so far resembles the pattern in May. So if repeating the May scenario, it is possible to reach $15k before declining again to $11k, then blasting off again to perhaps at least double-top at $20+k soon or perhaps in Q4. The top of this posited Rogue Wave move may not be complete yet.
Thus my speculative hypothesis has been
BTC would pullback to $10k, $8k, $6k, or worst case $4k before rising again to at least roughly at double-top before the May 2020 halving. The double-top scenario would be the typical pattern that everyone expects. Thus
A pullback will be at the lowest $4k on @Husain_Zabir’s chart but possibly not that low. And the
B[/tt] could be at least $15+k, not the $6500 on @Husain_Zabir’s chart. Or equivalently that the
A level has not yet been attained.
However instead of the usual scenario after the halving, I expect a divergence between the Core BitcOn-job and the real “v0.1”, immutable Bitcoin (i.e. not BCH nor BSV). I expect
Core shitcoins to crash to Martin Armstrong’s $775 prediction, whilst real Bitcoin will appreciate under the radar to $1+ million until it is eventually used to
back Facebook’s Libra after the strong U.S. dollar vortex.
Poll
