Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

The next halving has had no effect on the price - how could it since it hasn't happened yet? its a year away, so an argument can't even be made that its speculation effect of increased halving price.

Arguments can be made; they are made all the time, including an argument that efficient markets "price in" future known events, so since the halvening is a known event, the question becomes a matter of how much it is priced in rather than whether it is priced in.  

is it "halving" or "halvening"?
enquiring minds need to know....

Either one... we all know what is being referred to, no?

is it "halving" or "halvening"?
enquiring minds need to know....

I think it's a Shrodinger's cat thing, so both simultaneously.

Better yet..... in other words, exactamente, yefi!!!!

[WinslowIII]

I must not chase gap ups.

Said the guy who didn't buy at $290 after the run from $210. He was right too - for awhile.

Huh?  You talking to me?

unless he got his quotes wrong...it happens.

You tell me, mr legendary.

I wouldn't be asking if I knew, Mr Member

Ok, you got me. My answer is both mean the same thing when talking about bitcoin. Happy?

[JayJuanGee]

Suddenly, we are approaching almost a 2/3 share of ALL cryptoassets.

maybe.. "We are back, we are baaaack, we are baaaaack"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgnlzesChRc

Don't get distracted by that watered down referent... Yeah, they can put all kinds of coins into it, but the reality of the matter is that bitcoin is king, even if they put a bunch of other crap in there that even could cause BTC to shrink to some minor percentage of the total... They will probably put libra and the dollar in there some day too.  So who the fuck cares regarding the exact number?

[sirazimuth]

Ok, you got me. My answer is both mean the same thing when talking about bitcoin. Happy?

dude... it wasn't meant as a put down. I honestly wanted to know.
But I can't say I blame you if you thought I was being snarky... cuz I usually am.

[xhomerx10]

I must not chase gap ups.

Said the guy who didn't buy at $290 after the run from $210. He was right too - for awhile.

Huh?  You talking to me?

unless he got his quotes wrong...it happens.

You tell me, mr legendary.

I wouldn't be asking if I knew, Mr Member

Ok, you got me. My answer is both mean the same thing when talking about bitcoin. Happy?

dude... it wasn't meant as a put down. I honestly wanted to know.
But I can't say I blame you if you thought I was being snarky... cuz I usually am.

  There can be only one.

[sirazimuth]

  There can be only one.

ok, thank phuck we got that sorted....

[bkbirge]

is it "halving" or "halvening"?
enquiring minds need to know....

It's halfling.

[sirazimuth]

Later wo bros... Gonna go fly my drone now and spy on the neighbors.
....2nd thought, I'd better not.
Drinking and drone flying not a good combo....

[jojo69]

nothing to see here

$1x,xxx bitcoin, same old ordinary boring ass shit. 

Totally normal.

[sirazimuth]

The Bitcoin and Egretia whales are colluding.You heard it here first....

[d_eddie]

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns.

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

[Lambie Slayer]

Something really strange happened today. I came home from work, hit the treadmill, then collapsed on the couch, exhausted and dizzy. I fell into a strange trancelike state. Suddenly, the sunlight coming in my windows turned bright red, and I heard a booming, almost deafening voice:

BEHOLD! I AM KARHU!

Me: WTF is going on...

SILENCE! YOU WILL LISTEN AND OBEY.

Me: Okay...

THE BLOOD OF THE BULLS HAS SATIATED MY HUNGER. I HAVE RETURNED, AND WITH MORE POWER THAN EVER BEFORE!

AFTER YEARS OF PAIN AND DARKNESS, I WILL NOW REWARD MY FOLLOWERS WITH ALL MY GLORY AND WONDER!

BUT FIRST, YOU SHALL BEAR WITNESS TO THE THREE SIGNS:

1. AFTER HIS LONG REIGN IN THIS WORLD, THE FEROCIOUS BEAR SPIRIT SHALL SHOW HIMSELF TO YOU IN HIS LLAMA FORM ONCE AGAIN. THIS IS THE OMEN OF HIS PASSING.

Me: A bear llama?

2. A GREAT MAYOR SHALL RETURN TO HIS PEOPLE. ONLY THEN WILL YOU BE PREPARED FOR WHAT'S TO COME.

3. WHEN THE VALUE OF THE MOONCOIN REACHES TEN THOUSAND SCORE, YOU WILL MAKE A FINAL SACRIFICE TO ME.

Me: You want us to sell our bitcoin at $100,000?

NO! KARHU NOW DEMANDS BEAR BLOOD.

Me: So you want us to buy more bitcoin at $100,000? That's crazy!

YOU MUST PROVE YOUR FAITH TO KARHU. ONLY THE MOST FAITHFUL AND RIGHTEOUS COINERS WILL BE REWARDED.

DO AS I COMMAND, AND I WILL BRING MY GLORIOUS BITCOIN KINGDOM UNTO YOU! EVERY FAITHFUL COINER SHALL RECEIVE 72 NASTY, FILTHY SLUTS. FOR EVERY RIGHTEOUS COINER, THE LAMBOS AND BLOW WILL FLOW LIKE WATER.

Me: That doesn't even make any sense.

SILENCE! NOW GO FORTH, AND DELIVER MY MESSAGE TO YOUR FELLOW WALL OBSERVERS!

At that point, I must've passed out. My wife found me asleep on the couch. I'm still trying to make sense of all this...

And as Moses lifted up the serpent in the wilderness, even so must the Hodler: that whosoever believeth in Bitcoin should not perish, but have eternal life.


He that believeth in Bitcoin is not condemned; but he that believeth not is condemned already, because he hath not believed in the name of the only Coin.

And this is the condemnation, that light has come into the world, and men loved Fiat rather than Bitcoin, because their deeds were evil. For every one that doeth evil hateth the Bitcoin, neither cometh to the Bitcoin, lest his deeds should be reproved. But he that doeth truth cometh to the Bitcoin, that his deeds may be made manifest, that they are wrought in Lambos.

[HairyMaclairy]

[HairyMaclairy]

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns.

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

[JayJuanGee]

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns.

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

Gotta admit to the humor, which caused me to wonder, what I had said, exactly. 

I thought that I had said that my mom gave up on BTC trading in around 2015 or 2016 after making a few failed attempts, and decided not to follow my system, to mostly HODL and she kind of became inspired by my mostly HODLing BTC, as well... but she decided to shave off some profits from her BTC after the price began to drop from $19,666 and she made her most profitable sale in around the $14k arena in late 2017. 

I would conclude that she seemed to have made a lot of money by a kind of "winging it" whereby she sold a decent amount of coins at nearly 30x the cost of her initial investment.. She did not sell all of her BTC investment, but instead she sold about 1/6th of her then holdings... or something like that.  I would hardly call that BTC trading. 

Could have been a fluke, but surely such a willingness to HODL situation becomes a lot easier, when the BTC prices had gone shooting up in 2017 and her actual HODL had lasted long enough for her to realize a decent sell spot for a portion of her BTC, even though she carried it out after BTC's December 2017 price peak.

Seems like I tell so many partial renditions of this story that even I get confused about which parts of the story I may have missed.  I had been thinking that up until now in total she had sold nearly 30% of her total BTC stash, but I am not really sure.  But I am pretty sure that the most profitable portion of her BTC sales was the one that she sold 1/6th of her BTC holdings at around $14k in late 2017.

There was also a kind of repeated harping theme from me towards my mom in the past 9 months or so in which I was reminding my mom that she was becoming more and more elderly and she better figure out some kind of a BTC cashing out plan to start to sell her BTC at a rate of about 1% per quarter.  She did not completely listen to me, because she delayed and tried to time the market because she did not want to sell any BTC in the sub $6k territory, if she could avoid it, but I think that my suggestion that she should liquidate some BTC had helped her to shave off about 3-4% of her stash around $11k since she had not sold any BTC during the whole of 2018 until just in the past few weeks or so when BTC reached $11k the first time this year.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Just staggered in 

3g of blow with my younger bro!

13k Mother Fucker - So fucked up right now 

[JayJuanGee]

I envy those that can actually trade the short term waves with enough consistent certainty to make a better long term profit than just holding. I'm not sure I've ever actually met one of those mythical traders, they might be unicorns.

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that. I guess more than a few such people are reading and writing these very pages. It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe). Case in point: JJG's mom could do that almost in her sleep, but decided not to be bothered cause she prefers to enjoy life.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

This is the opposite of JJGs advice because you buy on the way up and sell on the way down.  The difference is JJGs system doesn’t require you to make a judgment call. Mine does.

Hahahaha... That is probably a decent summary of the differences.

I do believe that my system does allow for a certain amount of overinvesting into BTC because it is a kind of fool proof that is good, whether you are a fool or not, and I would be too chicken-shit to follow your system because both I have little judgement when it comes to BTC price direction, and if I do develop judgement, my judgement tends to become so damned conservative that it would likely take me too long to profit from such judgement (in other words, my judgement tends to function as a lagging indicator).  

In other words, as you have already suggested, I prefer not making any judgement when it comes to BTC price direction predictions, but instead, just doing, which "feels good, man."   I also like to kind of over-invest in a system of buying BTC on the way down and selling small amounts on the way up that seems nearly fool proof, which has made me very, very rich....... and also provides me with decent downside insurance and upside spending money beyond my prior imagination.

[d_eddie]

There are many different possible systems. You just find one that works for you most of the time, make all rounds similar in size, and you'll find yourself net green in the long term. Finding a system takes times and funds (the "lessons" or "classes").

The Hairy way is an excellent starting point, and not that hairy to implement after all (except for the judgment call).

If aiming realistically and conservatively, it doesn't take a unicorn to do that.

If you can learn the difference between a bear market and a bull market (hint: we are in a bull market) then you can trade for a profit.  Dollar cost average in in a bull market. Dollar cost average out in a bear market.

If you can’t tell the difference, then sit on your hands.

It doesn't even take a WO peep (well, just as a brainwasher maybe).

Gotta admit to the humor, which caused me to wonder, what I had said, exactly. 
-snip-

I think that my suggestion that she should liquidate some BTC had helped her to shave off about 3-4% of her stash around $11k since she had not sold any BTC during the whole of 2018 until just in the past few weeks or so when BTC reached $11k the first time this year.

OK, OK, brainwasher or ongoing counsel. A little judgment comes handy with any system.

My disclosure.

I have opened a new long - smaller, and higher entry point - after going practically even with my previous, ~2 week trade. Although small, it's making a tidy profit already. I've set two stops so that I pocket half of it if things go south by south-east, and the rest will be closed at break-even if things go true south.

If instead she goes up before going down, I can cash out, call it a day, put away the excess and start over. Alternatively, I can keep the game going by opening a balancing short. If I do, I'll "freeze" a decent level of profit while trying to tweak both legs to scrape/scalp a bit more while exiting. When I'm fed up, scared, tired or whatever, I'll close both legs and a fair part of the frozen profit will get back home if the legs will have been kept fairly balanced.

A pre-set plan with tentative future steps for up/down. Judgment deferred but eventually useful as always.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

3g of blow with my younger bro!
13k Mother Fucker - So fucked up right now 

Don't blow your heart out, brother. Please be careful.

*hugs*

No homo.

I’m OK.

Drinking Prosecco on my own to try & KO to get to sleep.

 

[d_eddie]

3g of blow with my younger bro!
13k Mother Fucker - So fucked up right now  

Don't blow your heart out, brother. Please be careful.

*hugs*

No homo.

I’m OK.

Drinking Prosecco on my own to try & KO to get to sleep.

Blow is occasionally fatal, I'm told. Prosecco almost never is, but it's sure to give me a bad stomach and a bad mouth, and without moderation, likely a full blown hangover.

Please be doubly careful