Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adam9317]

Stop selling on Stamp you idiots! There is no reason to panic! You are only making it worse for yourself! You stupid sheep!

I would agree very much with you mate!

[medialab101]

back @ 300!

premature

[thezerg]

For very obvious reasons, gox price is *justifiedly* decoupled from stamp price.

If however the situation on gox continues, I don't think stamp will entirely stay unaffected. Not for practical reasons so much as for psychological reasons: gox price is still quoted in the world, and at some point, the nervousness will translate into selling pressure on stamp as well. Not enough to go sub 500 maybe, but enough to bring the two exchanges a bit more in line.

So, short term: if Gox enables BTC withdrawals, Stamp will go down because arbitrage. If Gox doesn't enable withdrawals, Stamp will go down because Gox dying will bring everyone down.

It looks to me like we are out of short-term scenarios where Stamp price goes up?

This is precicesly my point - Am i Missing something? I can't see any scenario where we're going to be going up from here on stamp

I'll play devil's advocate for a moment. Note that I don't consider the following the most likely scenario, but possible it is:

Gox re-opens withdrawals. Arb opportunity appears, dominantly in the form of outside fiat buying up "cheap" gox coins. The buying pressure removes the doubt about whether we've hit bottom, and we go back into rally mode (similarly to how the "bad" news of Silk Road last year actually marked the starting point of our rally that concluded in the December ATH).

yeah say btc withdraw reenabled.  it is the only way out.  all gox sellers now become buyers with little btc liquidity on exchange.  price rockets past stamp.

with no way in or out gox should have have halted trading.  they could have opened on mon with a lot less damage than this. this is one point that indicates they are underwater and arbing to make it back.  

[EuroTrash]

Maybe the market finally reaches bottom at $400 after gox has reached $0. I was confused, back when I thought gox had bottomed at $300, how the market would have another leg down if gox was on its way up. But now I realize gox is headed towards $0 so it makes more sense now.

I believe that there will be a few bounces on Gox on the way down. Too much cash was left on the table. Too many gamblers will be thinking it hit the bottom this time and will try to buy back in lower.

[DougTanner]

Lost of this going around:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y22ux/email_from_gox_saying_i_logged_in_from_china/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y21xj/mtgox_account_login_hacked/

FUD to screw Gox more? Gox got hacked again? Just some users with poor security practices?

[oda.krell]

Stop selling on Stamp you idiots! There is no reason to panic! You are only making it worse for yourself! You stupid sheep!

You really don't get how markets work, do you?

It is not "making it worse for yourself" if you sell now and, in case price continues to go down, re-buy lower.

It's a decision, as always: stay with what you have, staying the same denominated in BTC, and going down in terms of USD, or taking additional risk and seeing your BTC total going up, and preserving its value in USD.

Nobody forces you to sell, but don't pretend it is "sheep" behavior to sell in a downtrend.

[medialab101]

Well, this would be a great story to tell down at the pub... if anyone knew what Bitcoin was and/or cared...

[creekbore]

I made a 1% loss trading today.

Oh, the humanity...please, won't someone think about the children

[Dragonkiller]

For very obvious reasons, gox price is *justifiedly* decoupled from stamp price.

If however the situation on gox continues, I don't think stamp will entirely stay unaffected. Not for practical reasons so much as for psychological reasons: gox price is still quoted in the world, and at some point, the nervousness will translate into selling pressure on stamp as well. Not enough to go sub 500 maybe, but enough to bring the two exchanges a bit more in line.

So, short term: if Gox enables BTC withdrawals, Stamp will go down because arbitrage. If Gox doesn't enable withdrawals, Stamp will go down because Gox dying will bring everyone down.

It looks to me like we are out of short-term scenarios where Stamp price goes up?

I would add, "medium" term as well. I'm waiting for any kind of reversal signal in the form of really clear buying pressure, but I don't see it yet. So I can easily see us trading sideways-tending-downwards for another month, maybe two. Not the end of the world, if that happens, by the way, I'm long-term bullish as always

If Gox re-enables BTC withdrawals, won't BTC prices there skyrocket again? To above Stamp levels? You still can't get fiat out of Gox, and all the people that have now sold their BTC to have USD in preparation for having legal recourse will buy back again (at a premium) just to get out of there.

So why do you think Stamp will go down if Gox re-enables withdrawals? Sure, some people that picked up cheap coins might dump for an instant profit, but the Gox premium will return again, dragging the other exchanges up.

[EuroTrash]

with no way in or out gox should have have halted trading.  they could have opened on mon with a lot less damage than this. this is one point that indicates they are underwater and arbing to make it back.  

Halting trading is not in their interest. This last move is part of the long con.

[N12]

Stop selling on Stamp you idiots! There is no reason to panic! You are only making it worse for yourself! You stupid sheep!

You really don't get how markets work, do you?

It is not "making it worse for yourself" if you sell now and, in case price continues to go down, re-buy lower.

It's a decision, as always: stay with what you have, staying the same denominated in BTC, and going down in terms of USD, or taking additional risk and seeing your BTC total going up, and preserving its value in USD.

Nobody forces you to sell, but don't pretend it is "sheep" behavior to sell in a downtrend.

He's been calling the sellers sheep since probably 800. And of course, selling is always PANIC selling, there is no other type. What he is oblivious to is that sitting here complaining every day how the sheep are all ruining the price rather than trying to take advantage of it is actually pretty sheepish itself.

[ardana123]

Lost of this going around:

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y22ux/email_from_gox_saying_i_logged_in_from_china/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1y21xj/mtgox_account_login_hacked/

FUD to screw Gox more? Gox got hacked again? Just some users with poor security practices?

It's fud, I've been getting those e-mails too recently, only the ip is mine.

[ShroomsKit]

Stop selling on Stamp you idiots! There is no reason to panic! You are only making it worse for yourself! You stupid sheep!

You really don't get how markets work, do you?

It is not "making it worse for yourself" if you sell now and, in case price continues to go down, re-buy lower.

It's a decision, as always: stay with what you have, staying the same denominated in BTC, and going down in terms of USD, or taking additional risk and seeing your BTC total going up, and preserving its value in USD.

Nobody forces you to sell, but don't pretend it is "sheep" behavior to sell in a downtrend.

Yes i know exactly how it works and i also know these are no clear thinking sellers looking to make money. These are panic sellers who only can think omg Gox is going down i must sell!
This are not the people who make money trading. This are the people who lose money.

[thezerg]

with no way in or out gox should have have halted trading.  they could have opened on mon with a lot less damage than this. this is one point that indicates they are underwater and arbing to make it back.  

Halting trading is not in their interest. This last move is part of the long con.

I considered this but think that the price would be closer to stamp if gox was buying and arbing

[ShroomsKit]

Stop selling on Stamp you idiots! There is no reason to panic! You are only making it worse for yourself! You stupid sheep!

You really don't get how markets work, do you?

It is not "making it worse for yourself" if you sell now and, in case price continues to go down, re-buy lower.

It's a decision, as always: stay with what you have, staying the same denominated in BTC, and going down in terms of USD, or taking additional risk and seeing your BTC total going up, and preserving its value in USD.

Nobody forces you to sell, but don't pretend it is "sheep" behavior to sell in a downtrend.

He's been calling the sellers sheep since probably 800. And of course, selling is always PANIC selling, there is no other type. What he is oblivious to is that sitting here complaining every day how the sheep are all ruining the price rather than trying to take advantage of it is actually pretty sheepish itself.

Aaaw did i upset the boards biggest idiot and troll? How cute.

[oda.krell]

Stop selling on Stamp you idiots! There is no reason to panic! You are only making it worse for yourself! You stupid sheep!

You really don't get how markets work, do you?

It is not "making it worse for yourself" if you sell now and, in case price continues to go down, re-buy lower.

It's a decision, as always: stay with what you have, staying the same denominated in BTC, and going down in terms of USD, or taking additional risk and seeing your BTC total going up, and preserving its value in USD.

Nobody forces you to sell, but don't pretend it is "sheep" behavior to sell in a downtrend.

Yes i know exactly how it works and i also know these are no clear thinking sellers looking to make money. These are panic sellers who only can think omg Gox is going down i must sell!
This are not the people who make money trading. This are the people who lose money.

Good point. Selling late into a trend is sheep behavior. Then again, depends on what time frame you're looking at, and how long you expect the trend to last. If you think the latest developments will put us into another month of bear market, then selling now might make sense after all.

[N12]

Not really. I'm one of the buyers, and have been for a while. My last sell was … in the 900s I think.

It is you who is constantly in a state of fear and anger because others are doing things you don't like. Pretty funny to me.

[TERA]

Well I think one thing has become clear here, Bitstamp has certainly not bottomed out into a rally. For one, look how low the volume has been.

[johnny211]

Hmm, I wonder if these markets could possibly stay irrational for longer than I can stay solvent..

[N12]

Hmm, I wonder if these markets could possibly stay irrational for longer than I can stay solvent..

Don't use leverage and you are fine.