Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

If McAfee speculate anything about Bitcoin then do not take it seriously. BOO yea!!! 🤪

Anyway, I would surely sell some of my BTC in $60k and invest in real estate. May be later I can buy some more BTC with the income from real estate

[JayJuanGee]

Here is another interesting observation:



The moment Mayer Multiple reached just above 2.4, it started to go down.

Amazing.

So, $14k was in a mini bubble territory and the bears didn't miss that one. Sniped it right away. $7.5k looks like a good buy.

edit: Also see the previous 2.4 rejections in 2017. Happened twice before the big boom. That's even more interesting.

Do you mean that we will have to wait at least 4 more months to see next pump of bitcoin?
Whatever methods/ indicators you used, I agreed with you that bitcoin might fall to the range around $7700.

Bitcoin might fall around 26 percent to 30 percent, from the range $11,000, where bitcoin broke out. It means in my forecast, bitcoin will fall to the range between $7700 and $8000. It is deep enough to kill Long gangs, and it is also relevant to news on Tether USD. News is used to pump and dump coins, so, why not believe in my forecast?

That indicator is not really talking about how far bitcoin would have to drop, it is merely providing guidance for when BTC might be overbought or oversold, but still does not mean that the price will cooperate.. but merely providing a kind of probability.  Of course BTC price could go shooting above the 2.4 line and stay up there for a while, but the chart would be showing BTC as overbought. 

Similarly on the downside, if the mayer multiple is below 1 for a decent amount of time, then starts to seem quite likely that BTC is oversold, but does not really say with any kind of certainty that the price has to go down or UP from where we are at right now, which is about 1.51 according to the live rendition of the mayermultiple on the website.  Furthermore the website show that the all time average of the mayermultiple, since the beginning of bitcoin is 1.39... so currently, we are only a little bit above 1.39.

[hodl_2015]

80% of 4 year interval now.

[JayJuanGee]

Back!
Good afternoon WO.
Still observing @ $9,678
Feels like we are stuck here forever LOL

This is nothing.

We surely do not have any kind of meaningful stagnation.  A quick look at almost any BTC chart that goes beyond a few days would establish and confirm that there is no BTC price stagnation present.

[cAPSLOCK]

Shelby has been advancing the proposition that Craig has access to enough currently dark mining power to couple the potential dumping attack with another attack of miners reverting to the original protocol (still possible under the so-called 'soft' fork), claiming all funds in SegWit addresses (which are of course pay-to-anyone under the previous rules, which are still valid as there was never a hard fork). This would force Core to either accept the loss of all such funds, or hard fork off to a parallel chain, where the protocol fully invalidates this earlier ruleset. Indeed, Shelby thinks this attack (irrespective of whether or not CSW has anything to do with it) to be an inevitability at some point.

Shelby has been predicting the death of Bitcoin for as long as I have been here.  Eventually he will be right.

[makrospex]

Back!
Good afternoon WO.
Still observing @ $9,678
Feels like we are stuck here forever LOL

This is nothing.

We surely do not have any kind of meaningful stagnation.  A quick look at almost any BTC chart that goes beyond a few days would establish and confirm that there is no BTC price stagnation present.

Daily still looks quite good, for now.
Good evening at $9.604  

[Searing]

Shelby has been advancing the proposition that Craig has access to enough currently dark mining power to couple the potential dumping attack with another attack of miners reverting to the original protocol (still possible under the so-called 'soft' fork), claiming all funds in SegWit addresses (which are of course pay-to-anyone under the previous rules, which are still valid as there was never a hard fork). This would force Core to either accept the loss of all such funds, or hard fork off to a parallel chain, where the protocol fully invalidates this earlier ruleset. Indeed, Shelby thinks this attack (irrespective of whether or not CSW has anything to do with it) to be an inevitability at some point.

Shelby has been predicting the death of Bitcoin for as long as I have been here.  Eventually he will be right.

Yes, the "Heat Death of the Universe" will eventually see to that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe

[infofront]

Old Poll Results:


Meet the new poll - same as the old poll.

[HairyMaclairy]

Shelby has been advancing the proposition that Craig has access to enough currently dark mining power to couple the potential dumping attack with another attack of miners reverting to the original protocol (still possible under the so-called 'soft' fork), claiming all funds in SegWit addresses (which are of course pay-to-anyone under the previous rules, which are still valid as there was never a hard fork). This would force Core to either accept the loss of all such funds, or hard fork off to a parallel chain, where the protocol fully invalidates this earlier ruleset. Indeed, Shelby thinks this attack (irrespective of whether or not CSW has anything to do with it) to be an inevitability at some point.

Shelby has been predicting the death of Bitcoin for as long as I have been here.  Eventually he will be right.

Shelby also has slight mental health issues

[JayJuanGee]

I liked this one a lot.

John McAfee's $1m math has been decrypted.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uRoL0eSr-I-just-love-trend-curves-Here-is-another-one-Bitcoin-long-term/

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

This is a high probability tbh and I am pretty sure %90 of this thread and %99.9 of any other Bitcoiners will be dumping as soon as it hits $50k. I wonder how will they (maybe me) feel a year later.  

There may be a bit of a pause at $50k, just like there was a pause between $2k and $3k and $3k took a bit of back and forth before it broke - yet once $3k broke, then we had a bit of no return up to $20k that left a lot of those selling in the $1k to $3k territory in the dust. Some of them are still waiting for the BTC price to drop back below $3k, go figure, and maybe $50k becomes the new $3k?

Of course there are no guarantees, so in that regard, it might not hurt to shave off a little bit of profits all the way up to $50k, so long as you still have a decently sized stash - perhaps even greater than 70% by the time we reach $50k.  

Quite some time back, I already gave up on selling large portions of my BTC stash, even with dramatic price rises, and there are likely a decent number of HODLers who are in a similar position and does not really matter to them very much if the price is $20k or $200k.  In the $20k scenario they may be 95% in and in the $200k scenario they may be 85% in, but in either case they are continuing to HODL a decently large majority of their BTC stash and they are still rich with such an approach without having to feel like they need to engage in desperate measures in terms of cashing out large chunks of their BTC stash at any one time.

[edited out]

I'm sure nobody in his right mind is selling 100% at 50k. Some part possibly but not all...

There are certainly some people selling at $50k, but the range is likely somewhere between nearly everyone (as suggested by mindrust) and nobody (as suggested by you, serveria.com). 

Perhaps 20% or 30% will sell a very large percentage of their coins at $50k, but wouldn't that be a BIG fucking SO WHAT, if the number of newbies FOMOing in is much greater because of their perceived thoughts of momentum into the $200k to $300k territory, which sometimes can become a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

[JayJuanGee]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5166448.40

For those that like a jjg discussion

I wonder if this is amongst the first times that my content has been promoted.   hahahahaha

Pretty soon someone will accuse me of having had joined team mic, which of course me, myself and my bot preemptively deny. 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I liked this one a lot.

John McAfee's $1m math has been decrypted.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uRoL0eSr-I-just-love-trend-curves-Here-is-another-one-Bitcoin-long-term/

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

This is a high probability tbh and I am pretty sure %90 of this thread and %99.9 of any other Bitcoiners will be dumping as soon as it hits $50k. I wonder how will they (maybe me) feel a year later.  

I thought for a long time I’d sell a high % at $50,000 but the longer I dwelled on it, it doesn’t make too much sense. I may sell 25% at $50,000 but imagine the fucking tax if you sell everything at $50,000. I think if you can hold on to a high % until after the 2024 halving the price will be mind blowing.

I don’t want to sell everything at 50k, like you said & miss out on obscene amounts if we hit something ridiculous loke 1 million per coin.

By 2024 we might see mass adoption, we could live on bitcoin relatively tax free

[JayJuanGee]

Old Poll Results:


Meet the new poll - same as the old poll.

(waiting.....)
I still haven't  (waiting.....) received any kind of concession (waiting.....)from you, infofront, regarding (waiting.....) the results of that last poll..... (waiting.....)

hahahaha.. (waiting.....)not that I need such a (waiting.....)concession for my current psychological (waiting.....) health.    (waiting.....)

[Insert (waiting.....)skeleton here]..

(waiting.....)


 
 

[serveria.com]

I liked this one a lot.

John McAfee's $1m math has been decrypted.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uRoL0eSr-I-just-love-trend-curves-Here-is-another-one-Bitcoin-long-term/

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

This is a high probability tbh and I am pretty sure %90 of this thread and %99.9 of any other Bitcoiners will be dumping as soon as it hits $50k. I wonder how will they (maybe me) feel a year later.  

I thought for a long time I’d sell a high % at $50,000 but the longer I dwelled on it, it doesn’t make too much sense. I may sell 25% at $50,000 but imagine the fucking tax if you sell everything at $50,000. I think if you can hold on to a high % until after the 2024 halving the price will be mind blowing.

I don’t want to sell everything at 50k, like you said & miss out on obscene amounts if we hit something ridiculous loke 1 million per coin.

By 2024 we might see mass adoption, we could live on bitcoin relatively tax free

I don't think $50k will be a long stop though....  next ATH (bubble top) is going to be ~$350-450k so we could perhaps stop at around $100k and before that at $30-40k where most peeps who bought at previous ATH will cash out....    

[Millionero]

I liked this one a lot.

John McAfee's $1m math has been decrypted.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uRoL0eSr-I-just-love-trend-curves-Here-is-another-one-Bitcoin-long-term/

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

This is a high probability tbh and I am pretty sure %90 of this thread and %99.9 of any other Bitcoiners will be dumping as soon as it hits $50k. I wonder how will they (maybe me) feel a year later. 

HAHAHAHA
no

[Biodom]

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.

[Syke]

What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins. Since there were no pools, each mined coin comes from a wallet on different computers.

Multiple computers can all use the same wallet. But the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system" that was very fast, probably some sort of pool-like configuration.

[Raja_MBZ]

US Lawmakers Are Realizing They Can’t Ban Bitcoin

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/2019/07/30/us-lawmakers-are-realizing-they-cant-ban-bitcoin/

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.

Something seems to be missing in your formula and your thought process, Biodom, even though my response to the matter is not exactly clarifying matters.

But, what I am trying to ask is whether you really believe that, currently, bitcoin has anything beyond 1% in adoption?  

Of course, most of us should understand that the world is much more complex than mere individuals, like you point out categories of institutional behavior too, but we don't just go from individuals to various sized institutions leading up to hedge funds and governments without also having various levels of complexities and competition and confusion within entities, too.  

They do not all of a sudden go from being ignorant about bitcoin to becoming enlightened, and even within the BTC HODLers there are various levels of appreciation about bitcoin, including doubts that individuals have including maybe that some people will continue to conclude that they are smarter than the others by getting out early, and planning to buy back lower, which may or may not work for them.

In other words, all of this new adoption is happening simultaneously and at a variety of levels of knowledge and understanding, and enlightenment does not just suddenly happen.  The complexity of feelings, market movements, misinformation and FUD and snake oil salesmen is going to lead to a snowballing process that feeds on each other, but it is not linear nor clear, while at the same time people and institutions are going to bet on bitcoin and also bet against it through the whole process of increasing and increasing adoption of bitcoin while snake oil products continue to exist too and try to take its place or serve as substitutes.  

Bitcoin is not going to just become obvious to people until quite a ways down the line and a long process and a lot of folks getting in much later than others and likely quite a few people getting reckt along the way, too, while others are making large profits.  Most likely the earlier the adopter, the more profits, but even that is not going to be clear because there are going to be dooms day sayers and bubble callers all along the way, too, including roach will be preaching his gospel along the way, and if it is not this particular roach, there will be others like him who know better and are able to convince some dumb money to hedge on an Armageddon that does not happen in any kind of way that is close to their speculation of how or even their speculation of likelihood, even though they are engaging in various forms of banking on those dumbass - but sometimes well articulated things to happen. 

[Amateur_]

Quite some time back, I already gave up on selling large portions of my BTC stash, even with dramatic price rises, and there are likely a decent number of HODLers who are in a similar position and does not really matter to them very much if the price is $20k or $200k.

What about $10?
What about $100?

As you've said - "there are no guarantees".