Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Old Poll Results:


Meet the new poll - same as the old poll.

(waiting.....)
I still haven't  (waiting.....) received any kind of concession (waiting.....)from you, infofront, regarding (waiting.....) the results of that last poll..... (waiting.....)

hahahaha.. (waiting.....)not that I need such a (waiting.....)concession for my current psychological (waiting.....) health.    (waiting.....)

[Insert (waiting.....)skeleton here]..

(waiting.....)


 
 

[serveria.com]

I liked this one a lot.

John McAfee's $1m math has been decrypted.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uRoL0eSr-I-just-love-trend-curves-Here-is-another-one-Bitcoin-long-term/

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

This is a high probability tbh and I am pretty sure %90 of this thread and %99.9 of any other Bitcoiners will be dumping as soon as it hits $50k. I wonder how will they (maybe me) feel a year later.  

I thought for a long time I’d sell a high % at $50,000 but the longer I dwelled on it, it doesn’t make too much sense. I may sell 25% at $50,000 but imagine the fucking tax if you sell everything at $50,000. I think if you can hold on to a high % until after the 2024 halving the price will be mind blowing.

I don’t want to sell everything at 50k, like you said & miss out on obscene amounts if we hit something ridiculous loke 1 million per coin.

By 2024 we might see mass adoption, we could live on bitcoin relatively tax free

I don't think $50k will be a long stop though....  next ATH (bubble top) is going to be ~$350-450k so we could perhaps stop at around $100k and before that at $30-40k where most peeps who bought at previous ATH will cash out....    

[Millionero]

I liked this one a lot.

John McAfee's $1m math has been decrypted.


https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/uRoL0eSr-I-just-love-trend-curves-Here-is-another-one-Bitcoin-long-term/

BOO yea $1Million Incoming!

Sell at $60k in 2021 or sell at a $1Million one year later, hard to decide.  

This is a high probability tbh and I am pretty sure %90 of this thread and %99.9 of any other Bitcoiners will be dumping as soon as it hits $50k. I wonder how will they (maybe me) feel a year later. 

HAHAHAHA
no

[Biodom]

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.

[Syke]

What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins. Since there were no pools, each mined coin comes from a wallet on different computers.

Multiple computers can all use the same wallet. But the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system" that was very fast, probably some sort of pool-like configuration.

[Raja_MBZ]

US Lawmakers Are Realizing They Can’t Ban Bitcoin

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ktorpey/2019/07/30/us-lawmakers-are-realizing-they-cant-ban-bitcoin/

[JayJuanGee]

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.

Something seems to be missing in your formula and your thought process, Biodom, even though my response to the matter is not exactly clarifying matters.

But, what I am trying to ask is whether you really believe that, currently, bitcoin has anything beyond 1% in adoption?  

Of course, most of us should understand that the world is much more complex than mere individuals, like you point out categories of institutional behavior too, but we don't just go from individuals to various sized institutions leading up to hedge funds and governments without also having various levels of complexities and competition and confusion within entities, too.  

They do not all of a sudden go from being ignorant about bitcoin to becoming enlightened, and even within the BTC HODLers there are various levels of appreciation about bitcoin, including doubts that individuals have including maybe that some people will continue to conclude that they are smarter than the others by getting out early, and planning to buy back lower, which may or may not work for them.

In other words, all of this new adoption is happening simultaneously and at a variety of levels of knowledge and understanding, and enlightenment does not just suddenly happen.  The complexity of feelings, market movements, misinformation and FUD and snake oil salesmen is going to lead to a snowballing process that feeds on each other, but it is not linear nor clear, while at the same time people and institutions are going to bet on bitcoin and also bet against it through the whole process of increasing and increasing adoption of bitcoin while snake oil products continue to exist too and try to take its place or serve as substitutes.  

Bitcoin is not going to just become obvious to people until quite a ways down the line and a long process and a lot of folks getting in much later than others and likely quite a few people getting reckt along the way, too, while others are making large profits.  Most likely the earlier the adopter, the more profits, but even that is not going to be clear because there are going to be dooms day sayers and bubble callers all along the way, too, including roach will be preaching his gospel along the way, and if it is not this particular roach, there will be others like him who know better and are able to convince some dumb money to hedge on an Armageddon that does not happen in any kind of way that is close to their speculation of how or even their speculation of likelihood, even though they are engaging in various forms of banking on those dumbass - but sometimes well articulated things to happen. 

[Amateur_]

Quite some time back, I already gave up on selling large portions of my BTC stash, even with dramatic price rises, and there are likely a decent number of HODLers who are in a similar position and does not really matter to them very much if the price is $20k or $200k.

What about $10?
What about $100?

As you've said - "there are no guarantees".

[hd49728]

That indicator is not really talking about how far bitcoin would have to drop, it is merely providing guidance for when BTC might be overbought or oversold, but still does not mean that the price will cooperate.. but merely providing a kind of probability.  Of course BTC price could go shooting above the 2.4 line and stay up there for a while, but the chart would be showing BTC as overbought. 

Similarly on the downside, if the mayer multiple is below 1 for a decent amount of time, then starts to seem quite likely that BTC is oversold, but does not really say with any kind of certainty that the price has to go down or UP from where we are at right now, which is about 1.51 according to the live rendition of the mayermultiple on the website.  Furthermore the website show that the all time average of the mayermultiple, since the beginning of bitcoin is 1.39... so currently, we are only a little bit above 1.39.

I noted it. There are two importants points with Mayer Multiple indicator:

• Above 2.4: Overbought
• Below 1: Oversold.

By the way, we have another good day to consolidate bitcoin.

Three-days in-a-row (despite some pumps of fees intradays), you have good time to move your bitcoin with cheapest fees, when transaction fees fluctuated around 1 sat/byte. Fees for transaction with 1 input (148 bytes), 3 outputs (102 bytes) costs only 260 satoshis, which is double than yesterday fee.
It is a best time to consolidate your bitcoin leftovers, but it doesn't last for too long. Hurry up.

Please check more there:
https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/historical/6h-f-tfee_blk_avg-01051
https://coinb.in/#fees

[jojo69]

Shelby also has slight mental health issues

[realr0ach]

What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins

More likely?  It's a fact.  There are three very inconvenient facts about Bitcoin.  

1)  The first is that it's initial mining was provably done in an edu/govt computer lab.  

2)  The second is that most inventions (or in the case of Bitcoin - designed to centralize scheme) through history don't have white papers.  The fact Bitcoin has a white paper at all tells you it originated from someone indoctrinated into the rigamarole of begging for govt/edu grant money and recognition in post grad studies.  Since Bitcoin obviously did not originate from the private sector, and it's mining was first turned on in an edu or govt computer lab, it would need to originate from someone still in some type of higher education function or post grad studies at an edu, or the govt itself.

3)  By process of deduction, we can most likely assume it did not originate from an edu or there would be people actually talking about it...and there's not.  What does that leave?  Government origin with it's creation classified.

[Cryptotourist]

Driving my buddy's fucking Mustang, roaring at 200km+ open top, was exhilarating.
Peace brothers.
The show must go on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8Q5pLeTkMo

[realr0ach]

The amazing Judeo country of Germany after getting rid of those evil white nationalists in the reich:

https://dailystormer.name/germany-eritrean-pushes-mother-and-her-eight-year-old-son-onto-train-tracks-son-dies/

[JayJuanGee]

Quite some time back, I already gave up on selling large portions of my BTC stash, even with dramatic price rises, and there are likely a decent number of HODLers who are in a similar position and does not really matter to them very much if the price is $20k or $200k.

What about $10?
What about $100?

As you've said - "there are no guarantees".

Of course there are no guarantees, and look at you, the supposed Amateur_ coming back with some supposed knowledge about something, when in fact you likely don't know shit beyond what your handlers told you to say.

What do you believe the odds are to go below $8k?

How about $6,500? 

$4,200?


$3,122?

$2k

$1K?

$500?


Probably decreasing odds the lower that you go; however, the odds of $500, $100 and $1 would likely be very similar to one another.

What do you believe that the odds that the BTC price is higher or lower than $14,000 in 6 years (let's say the middle of 2025)?   Greater than 50 % to be higher than $14k at that time, no? 

How about $30k?

$100k?


I think that if you consider bitcoin, you are considering an asymmetric bet, and might not be a bad idea to be a HODLer and accumulator of BTC, even if there are almost inevitable odds that are approaching 100% that the BTC price will go down at various points from time to time and have greater than 30% price corrections, and even larger ones?  AmiNOTrite?

[VB1001]

So Bitcoin is nearing its billionth dollar charged in transaction fees.
It should cross the threshold this fall

https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1156212615095492609

Good morning, WO,s

[hd49728]

How to make your decisions right?

[degxtra1]

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.

[JayJuanGee]

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.

Not gonna be true, unless JSRAW confirms.   

[akram143]

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.

Likely a week left for you guys.

[JSRAW]

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.

Not gonna be true, unless JSRAW confirms.  

You need good 6-8 hours sleep bro  

I can't confirm anything. For me, everything starts from 15k mark till then am keep filling my small stash religiously.

Next month I am completing my 2 full year cycle from my first BTC transaction. So I don't mind price staying at 4 digits, have to buy some for voodoo rituals