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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (3.1%)
<$8,000 - 5 (5.2%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 2 (2.1%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 5 (5.2%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 6 (6.3%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 18 (18.8%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 19 (19.8%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 18 (18.8%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 6 (6.3%)
>$12,000 - 8 (8.3%)
>$20,000 - 5 (5.2%)
Total Voters: 96

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21373206 times)
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JayJuanGee
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July 31, 2019, 12:28:08 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2019, 12:47:38 AM by JayJuanGee

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.

Something seems to be missing in your formula and your thought process, Biodom, even though my response to the matter is not exactly clarifying matters.

But, what I am trying to ask is whether you really believe that, currently, bitcoin has anything beyond 1% in adoption?  

Of course, most of us should understand that the world is much more complex than mere individuals, like you point out categories of institutional behavior too, but we don't just go from individuals to various sized institutions leading up to hedge funds and governments without also having various levels of complexities and competition and confusion within entities, too.  

They do not all of a sudden go from being ignorant about bitcoin to becoming enlightened, and even within the BTC HODLers there are various levels of appreciation about bitcoin, including doubts that individuals have including maybe that some people will continue to conclude that they are smarter than the others by getting out early, and planning to buy back lower, which may or may not work for them.

In other words, all of this new adoption is happening simultaneously and at a variety of levels of knowledge and understanding, and enlightenment does not just suddenly happen.  The complexity of feelings, market movements, misinformation and FUD and snake oil salesmen is going to lead to a snowballing process that feeds on each other, but it is not linear nor clear, while at the same time people and institutions are going to bet on bitcoin and also bet against it through the whole process of increasing and increasing adoption of bitcoin while snake oil products continue to exist too and try to take its place or serve as substitutes.  

Bitcoin is not going to just become obvious to people until quite a ways down the line and a long process and a lot of folks getting in much later than others and likely quite a few people getting reckt along the way, too, while others are making large profits.  Most likely the earlier the adopter, the more profits, but even that is not going to be clear because there are going to be dooms day sayers and bubble callers all along the way, too, including roach will be preaching his gospel along the way, and if it is not this particular roach, there will be others like him who know better and are able to convince some dumb money to hedge on an Armageddon that does not happen in any kind of way that is close to their speculation of how or even their speculation of likelihood, even though they are engaging in various forms of banking on those dumbass - but sometimes well articulated things to happen. 
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July 31, 2019, 01:30:47 AM

Quite some time back, I already gave up on selling large portions of my BTC stash, even with dramatic price rises, and there are likely a decent number of HODLers who are in a similar position and does not really matter to them very much if the price is $20k or $200k.

What about $10?
What about $100?

As you've said - "there are no guarantees".
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July 31, 2019, 01:37:46 AM

That indicator is not really talking about how far bitcoin would have to drop, it is merely providing guidance for when BTC might be overbought or oversold, but still does not mean that the price will cooperate.. but merely providing a kind of probability.  Of course BTC price could go shooting above the 2.4 line and stay up there for a while, but the chart would be showing BTC as overbought. 

Similarly on the downside, if the mayer multiple is below 1 for a decent amount of time, then starts to seem quite likely that BTC is oversold, but does not really say with any kind of certainty that the price has to go down or UP from where we are at right now, which is about 1.51 according to the live rendition of the mayermultiple on the website.  Furthermore the website show that the all time average of the mayermultiple, since the beginning of bitcoin is 1.39... so currently, we are only a little bit above 1.39.
I noted it. There are two importants points with Mayer Multiple indicator:
  • Above 2.4: Overbought
  • Below 1: Oversold.

By the way, we have another good day to consolidate bitcoin.
Three-days in-a-row (despite some pumps of fees intradays), you have good time to move your bitcoin with cheapest fees, when transaction fees fluctuated around 1 sat/byte. Fees for transaction with 1 input (148 bytes), 3 outputs (102 bytes) costs only 260 satoshis, which is double than yesterday fee.
It is a best time to consolidate your bitcoin leftovers, but it doesn't last for too long. Hurry up.

Please check more there:
https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/historical/6h-f-tfee_blk_avg-01051
https://coinb.in/#fees
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July 31, 2019, 01:53:00 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)


Shelby also has slight mental health issues

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July 31, 2019, 02:35:10 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2019, 02:46:42 AM by realr0ach

What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins

More likely?  It's a fact.  There are three very inconvenient facts about Bitcoin.  

1)  The first is that it's initial mining was provably done in an edu/govt computer lab.  

2)  The second is that most inventions (or in the case of Bitcoin - designed to centralize scheme) through history don't have white papers.  The fact Bitcoin has a white paper at all tells you it originated from someone indoctrinated into the rigamarole of begging for govt/edu grant money and recognition in post grad studies.  Since Bitcoin obviously did not originate from the private sector, and it's mining was first turned on in an edu or govt computer lab, it would need to originate from someone still in some type of higher education function or post grad studies at an edu, or the govt itself.

3)  By process of deduction, we can most likely assume it did not originate from an edu or there would be people actually talking about it...and there's not.  What does that leave?  Government origin with it's creation classified.
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July 31, 2019, 02:51:58 AM
Merited by HairyMaclairy (1)

Driving my buddy's fucking Mustang, roaring at 200km+ open top, was exhilarating.
Peace brothers.
The show must go on.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8Q5pLeTkMo
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July 31, 2019, 03:02:19 AM

The amazing Judeo country of Germany after getting rid of those evil white nationalists in the reich:

https://dailystormer.name/germany-eritrean-pushes-mother-and-her-eight-year-old-son-onto-train-tracks-son-dies/
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July 31, 2019, 03:04:32 AM

Quite some time back, I already gave up on selling large portions of my BTC stash, even with dramatic price rises, and there are likely a decent number of HODLers who are in a similar position and does not really matter to them very much if the price is $20k or $200k.

What about $10?
What about $100?

As you've said - "there are no guarantees".

Of course there are no guarantees, and look at you, the supposed Amateur_ coming back with some supposed knowledge about something, when in fact you likely don't know shit beyond what your handlers told you to say.

What do you believe the odds are to go below $8k?

How about $6,500? 

$4,200?


$3,122?

$2k

$1K?

$500?


Probably decreasing odds the lower that you go; however, the odds of $500, $100 and $1 would likely be very similar to one another.

What do you believe that the odds that the BTC price is higher or lower than $14,000 in 6 years (let's say the middle of 2025)?   Greater than 50 % to be higher than $14k at that time, no? 

How about $30k?

$100k?


I think that if you consider bitcoin, you are considering an asymmetric bet, and might not be a bad idea to be a HODLer and accumulator of BTC, even if there are almost inevitable odds that are approaching 100% that the BTC price will go down at various points from time to time and have greater than 30% price corrections, and even larger ones?  AmiNOTrite?
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July 31, 2019, 04:52:33 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2019, 05:05:24 AM by VB1001



Quote
So Bitcoin is nearing its billionth dollar charged in transaction fees.
It should cross the threshold this fall





https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1156212615095492609

Good morning, WO,s
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July 31, 2019, 05:16:00 AM

How to make your decisions right?
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July 31, 2019, 06:44:44 AM

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.
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July 31, 2019, 06:55:55 AM

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.

Not gonna be true, unless JSRAW confirms.   Tongue
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July 31, 2019, 07:00:44 AM

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.
Likely a week left for you guys. Kiss
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July 31, 2019, 07:25:56 AM

Seems like last hours, maybe a few days when you can buy for 4digits.

Not gonna be true, unless JSRAW confirms.   Tongue

You need good 6-8 hours sleep bro  Grin

I can't confirm anything. For me, everything starts from 15k mark till then am keep filling my small stash religiously.

Next month I am completing my 2 full year cycle from my first BTC transaction. So I don't mind price staying at 4 digits, have to buy some for voodoo rituals Cheesy
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July 31, 2019, 07:35:49 AM
Merited by mindrust (2)

Sorry to be bearish gents but I think we wont bottom this summer till we get to about 4900.

I was convinced of this by powerful entities who communicated with me on a recent DMT adventure.

Apparently they trade Bitcoin in transdimensional hyperspace.

I obviously dont post much during times like this bc its no fun but I promised to report.


via Imgflip Meme Generator


Oh gawd..... .... another sorcerer wannabe.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


[edited out]

Your starting to sound like jonov

Sure.. that's another angle... Haven't heard from that broke-ass dude for a while.  Maybe he will be able to buy back all the coins that he sold for under $6k, but guys like that get to cock-assured and too greedy.. .so my hopes are not too high in his ability to recover from dumb.

Have to add I'm deeply disappointed with Lambie lately. He was a permabull when he first appeared but it seems he has turned into a bear now. What is more alarming he started posting his bearish prophecies of the so-called "one last dump before up" theory and now this $4900 bottom post. I'm worried that's a way how most beartrolls earn their merits and post count (also respect from other members) - post bullish things first, turning into bears later. So guys be smart, think twice! We're getting surrounded by werewolves.  Cool    

Have to say Im disappointed you would get so suspicious over someone being short term bearish. Im not out to get you. I just like to post my thoughts from time to time. Its not a conspiracy to trick you into giving up on Bitcoin and bowing to the dollar as your master.

Am I pumping shitcoins? Am I deviating from my firm belief that Bitcoin will be the global reserve currency and 1 coin will make any human wealthy in the next decade. Of course not.

Am I tone vays calling for 1k, a price that hasnt been seen for years. Nope, just concerned we will revert to prices seen a few months ago.

Did you get suspicious of Hairy when he was actively shorting as a hedge in 2018 and calling for lower prices for a long while? Hell im not even shorting, just waiting for what I consider cheap coins this summer before I deploy my last fiat for the mega run all in hodl. If it doesnt happen, nbd, its not like I dont have a lot of Bitcoins.  Cheesy

Pray you get surrounded by hyenas like me.  Cheesy Im over 90 percent net worth in Bitcoin and have been since '14. If you ever find a day where the average joe is even close to as big of a Bitcoin believer as me then our Lord and Savior King Bitcoin will already be the global reserve currency on that same day.  Cool


Still short term bearish. Id say fight me  Wink but I dont really feel like posting much unless im short and long term bullish.

I will say 4900 is pretty extreme, its more like a floor I dont see us going under. 7-8k would be a more reasonable outcome imo, but this is Bitcoin and shit happens.  I think people shouldnt cry if 4900 is reached bc its still very bullish as a higher low than 3100 of Dec. 15.

You do seem to bring a decent amount of the wrath upon yourself with your ongoing extreme ways of speaking (like one of those know it all dweebs that many of us hated in high school but has only become a phenomenon on the interwebs because we are not able to beat him up in the locker room), but do what you gonna do....   hahahahahaa

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I do enjoy speaking in extremes, thats a fair point JJG. I can understand if it might irritate someone, especially if they have over indulged in a leveraged long, or just cant stand to hear anyone be short term bearish.

As to your last dig at me, nobody was ever dumb enough to attempt to physically bully me in high school  Cool but feel free to size me up at the 100k party and estimate your odds of success in a high school locker room hand to hand combat situation.

Your statement also implies you may have some secret hatred or ill will for me and this is understandable due to our past arguments where I may have been overly harsh with you on a personal level. My apologies, I should attempt to be friendlier to bulls especially and people in general during arguments/debates etc.

Since we are making jokes and digs.... I get the feeling that instead of trying anything physical, your "wrath" might have involved dropping a very long anonymous letter in my locker if you were upset bc of something "extreme" I said.  Wink

I will buy more if we get under 8k and I dont see how the correction is over now, but time will tell.

While I remain short term bearish(next month or two), we are of course still in a bull market with new ATH's awaiting us after the halving imo, so a countdown is long overdue....



228 days into the new BTCull Market and all is well Cheesy
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July 31, 2019, 09:30:34 AM
Last edit: July 31, 2019, 09:51:13 AM by Lambie Slayer
Merited by jbreher (5), vapourminer (2), BinaryReign (2)

Somewhat off topic, but the ends justify the means on this one.  Cool

As you know Equifax had a massive data breach a while back and 145 million or more customers had their credit files stolen.

They are paying out 700 million dollars in a legal settlement to victims who come forward. As we know most people will never bother to even check if they were a victim.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/22/what-you-need-to-know-equifax-data-breach-700-million-settlement.html

Turns out Slayer was a victim  Cry and will be receiving a small bit of filthy fiat to buy more Bitcoin with.  Cool

I suspect most of you that hail from the US are also eligible for a cash payout, you can instantly check here if you will be able to receive some filthy fiat from the dirty credit boy'z pockets.

https://eligibility.equifaxbreachsettlement.com/eligibility

If this site says you are eligible, then you proceed to the prompted link and can instantly claim 125 dollars to be sent to you in 90 days, no questions asked.

If you want to get another 250 dollars you also merely describe how you spent 10 hours of your time investigating the data breach or taking actions to remedy any misdoings. Its at a rate of 25 per hour up to 10 hours no documentation required. If you provide docs you can claim another 10 hours, but the gist is you can have a check in the mail of 375 filthy usd shitcoins on the way with a basic description in the form of some efforts you made researching your credit data in the last few years.

Id recommend watching and describing you watched these 10+ hours of videos to inform yourself of Equifax's evil ways. Of course it would be immoral to not watch the videos completely so dont take shortcuts, you are only cheating yourself  Smiley

https://www.c-span.org/video/?458597-1/equifax-marriott-international-executives-testify-data-breaches

https://energycommerce.house.gov/committee-activity/hearings/hearing-on-oversight-of-the-equifax-data-breach-answers-for-consumers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RrMsxXYjef0

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/watch-live-former-equifax-ceo-testifies-fourth-hearing-data-breach

TLDR:

So if you live in the US chances are you are eligible as most US credit users were affected. For a few seconds of work you can get the 125 bucks just for pain and suffering, and if you go the extra mile you can get up to 500 more. The first 250 of which is pretty easy.

When you receive your USD shitcoins dont forget to trade them for Bitcoin.


@mindrust, ty for merits above!
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July 31, 2019, 09:37:17 AM

Chairman Crapo: "I'm pretty confident we couldn't succeed" in banning cryptocurrency - July 30 2019

https://twitter.com/redditbtc/status/1156312505674846216?s=21

And no ethical person should even want to or try!  Bitcoin is a technology to help elevate humanity out of type zero status!  Our technology must become trustless because humans won't anytime soon!

https://twitter.com/piffer55/status/1156318933504409600?s=21
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July 31, 2019, 09:56:42 AM

Perhaps I am wrong, but I don't think that there will be a significant price appreciation speculation in bitcoin after $50-100K.

To me it looks like this:

Bitcoin price: participants

Below $100: Very early adopters, miners.

Between $100-1000: The first wave of fomo, speculators, savers, accumulators, storage of value, super early hedge funds (I am aware of just one).

Between $150-20000: Early hedge funds, hodlers from the first wave, miners, new buyers (fomoing in) which then sell for alts and eventually getting rekt

Current cycle $3100 to maybe $50K: Hodlers from the prior wave DCAing, few new buyers, more hedge funds, family offices, innovative endowments

Above 50K until 100-300K: Almost exclusively hedge funds and other institutionals. Regular people start to use it as a currency instead of trying to speculate.

Above 100K: Very large funds and hedgefunds, maybe country size funds (Norway, Oman sovereign Fund, Abu Dhabi, etc)

Above 300k: Central banks and governments.

I cannot possibly envision some individual investor speculating that btc will go from 10 tril (~0.5mil/btc) to 15 tril (0.75mil/btc).

TL;DR Soon enough (see numbers) the speculation by individuals will stop and it would be used as a currency/long term SOV.

Can I suggest you don’t think of Bitcoin in $ terms but rather in time terms.

What Bitcoin can achieve in two, five, 10, 20, 40 or 60 years (if you have kids) is likely very different to what we can imagine now.

Sovereign money is not a passing fad.   And people keep losing their keys and leaving dust behind.
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July 31, 2019, 09:57:24 AM

What is more likely is that several computers or servers were used to mine the first million coins. Since there were no pools, each mined coin comes from a wallet on different computers.

Multiple computers can all use the same wallet. But the nonces on the blocks indicate that they came from a single "system" that was very fast, probably some sort of pool-like configuration.

Or the difficulty was low
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July 31, 2019, 10:31:45 AM


Your statement also implies you may have some secret hatred or ill will for me and this is understandable due to our past arguments where I may have been overly harsh with you on a personal level. My apologies, I should attempt to be friendlier to bulls especially and people in general during arguments/debates etc.


@Lambie : Not hate!! I think, JJG likes you secretly  Grin

I have some doubt if he wants to come to 100k Party or not?.  Reason = OPSEC - Partypooper  Huh Tongue

so no hand to hand combat  Undecided
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