Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[serveria.com]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

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[mindrust]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

[JayJuanGee]

By the way, even though you are using coinbase in your charts, which seem a little anathema in this thread, but let's just presume, for the sake of argument, that your coinbase numbers and lines on a chart are very similar to those that would be drawn with the use of our beloved bitstamp.

The Coinbase chart is %99.9 identical to the bitstamp chart. I don't see a problem. Maybe I am blind. Changing back and forth, it is the exact same chart.

Why you fighting it?

Use bitstamp.. .. it be called "ease of reference."

Furthermore, there are more important things to battle about.... no...?

Also, as a little side glance regarding coinbase:  I am pretty confident that even though most of the time coinbase is in line with bitstamp, it is not bitstamp nor the same as bitstamp in terms of its actual track record in respect to bitcoin..   In that regard, coinbase has been accused of some pretty BIG ASS heavy shenanigans in terms of forgetting who brought it to the dance, as well as manipulating its launching of the trading of bcash (December 2017), likely to the attempted detriment of our best lil fiend, bitcoin.

[mindrust]

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

[JayJuanGee]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha   

[bkbirge]

One time this security guard warned me against drinking GSM gin, he said sometimes people literally don't wake up the next day after drinking it, but I'm still here, so...

I only drink the finest Dominican Republic brewed methanol.

[mindrust]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha  

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.   Why? Because I want it to go up.   If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

[JayJuanGee]

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

I am just saying what we do in these here parts in terms of having a bitstamp preference... whether you consider that a BIG deal or not is up to you.... I am not going to be shy about continuing to suggest that you or any others use bitstamp, and surely many of the posters here will just use bitstamp as  a courtesy...

Of course, if you find some chart using another exchange and you are not really able to replicate it (I certainly have not been in the practice of customizing charts nor memes either... I just try to find the one that best fits whatever point I am attempting to make), then you should use whatever you have and maybe mention from where you got it... inferior as that might be.. hahahahahaha


 Of course, there are several rebels including your buddy jbreher who just wuvs himselfie some coinbase.... hahahaha and of course there are others who are all over the place in regards to their use of various exchanges, besides bitstamp.. and even adamant about their supposed rebel status.. maybe you want to join those ranks of non-cooperators? 

[mindrust]

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

I am just saying what we do in these here parts in terms of having a bitstamp preference... whether you consider that a BIG deal or not is up to you.... I am not going to be shy about continuing to suggest that you or any others use bitstamp, and surely many of the posters here will just use bitstamp as  a courtesy...

Of course, if you find some chart using another exchange and you are not really able to replicate it (I certainly have not been in the practice of customizing charts nor memes either... I just try to find the one that best fits whatever point I am attempting to make), then you should use whatever you have and maybe mention from where you got it... inferior as that might be.. hahahahahaha


 Of course, there are several rebels including your buddy jbreher who just wuvs himselfie some coinbase.... hahahaha and of course there are others who are all over the place in regards to their use of various exchanges, besides bitstamp.. and even adamant about their supposed rebel status.. maybe you want to join those ranks of non-cooperators?  

jbear my buddy? Who the fuck is he? Must have ignored him years ago.

I think you don't know me well enuff JJ-G.

[serveria.com]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha  

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.   Why? Because I want it to go up.   If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...    

[JayJuanGee]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha  

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.   Why? Because I want it to go up.   If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

Now you are speaking some truth... you and your bald exec at coinbase... hahahahaha

You gotta admit that there is a difference between 50% and 20%, and it is not meaningless to throw out those kinds of numbers willy nilly.

I do the same.  I attempt to approximate what I think, but jeez I am not going to assert that there is not much if any difference between saying 55% and saying 80%.

If I ever had an 80% confidence in any short term BTC price direction, I would have pretty strong feelings to take some meaningful measures to tweak my strategies and my holdings in that direction.... Sometimes I will feel quite strongly about a short term direction, but maybe I get into the 60% or 65% arena of "strong" feelings, but those levels of conviction do not usually cause me to tweak in any kind of meaningful way.

For example, I have a theory that chances are pretty fucking good that when BTC prices significantly go above $17.5k and stay there (I am talking bitstamp brah), then there is a pretty strong likelihood that that BTC prices are going to pass to nearly $24k without any real or meaningfully strong resistance.   I am still too damned chickenshit to change my pattern of trading in that whole price range because even though I consider my confidence to be pretty damned strong, I would still only characterize such strength of my confidence to be in the 60% to 65% arena.

Anyhow, part of my point is attempting to assert that I continue to consider 80%, or the inverse, 20% to be pretty damned strong conviction levels, especially short term.

[mindrust]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha  

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.   Why? Because I want it to go up.   If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...    

Dude you are so emotional about my guesses. I told you before.

If you feel depressed by any down scenarios, even though the major trend is bullish, it means you are too deep in bitcoin.

We'll get there. Hang on.

[jojo69]

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

The point is that we have a standard datum of reference on the thread.

[mindrust]

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

The point is that we have a standard datum of reference on the thread.

Who decided that?

Alright, alright, I'll not be using coinbase anymore. Can't promise on bitstamp though.  I heard Bitfinex is cool 

[JayJuanGee]

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

I am just saying what we do in these here parts in terms of having a bitstamp preference... whether you consider that a BIG deal or not is up to you.... I am not going to be shy about continuing to suggest that you or any others use bitstamp, and surely many of the posters here will just use bitstamp as  a courtesy...

Of course, if you find some chart using another exchange and you are not really able to replicate it (I certainly have not been in the practice of customizing charts nor memes either... I just try to find the one that best fits whatever point I am attempting to make), then you should use whatever you have and maybe mention from where you got it... inferior as that might be.. hahahahahaha


 Of course, there are several rebels including your buddy jbreher who just wuvs himselfie some coinbase.... hahahaha and of course there are others who are all over the place in regards to their use of various exchanges, besides bitstamp.. and even adamant about their supposed rebel status.. maybe you want to join those ranks of non-cooperators?  

jbear my buddy? Who the fuck is he? Must have ignored him years ago.

I think you don't know me well enuff JJ-G.

How are we supposed to really know peeps on the interwebs?  Maybe I am just trying to ruffle your feathers, and I suppose if I were to argue that the two of you must have the same handler, then I might get both of you aligning to draw and quarter me.  You know that jbreher got pretty worked up when some of us (well partly emphasized by me) continued to refer to him as a govt agent... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, point is that we should not get too worked up if we are not known too well by others on the interwebs and sometimes allegiances are tested. 

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...    

I believe that I was saying something slightly different, but I agree with your statement too, serveria.  If something is 50/50, then it still might be o.k. to just talk about one side, but to disclose that you believe it is 50/50.  However, it is worse if you believe something is only 20% odds, but then you neither disclose that you believe it is 20% odds, while you talk about it as if you believe the odds were greater than 20%.

I give two shits about whether noobs or weak hands are scared, especially if you are actually discussing something in a way that you really believe.  It is good to put out there information of either the plus or the minus or the fears that you might have as long as you really are attempting to characterize your information and your emotions and your fears accurately.  

I would not conclude that mindrust is engaging in any kind of bad faith, but I will assert that some of what he had been saying seemed to had been a bit internally contradictory... but I don't think that he was doing it on purpose (at least mostly not).   Currently, I believe that through several of his further explanatory posts he has cleared up quite a bit of what he had been saying.  Not completely, but who needs complete clarification, anyhow?  We are all BIG boys and girl and we should be able to come to our own various conclusions.

[ðºÞæ]

Australian Government to declare war on its people, taking steps to make cash, (gold?) crypto currency illegal through IMF influenced legislation.
Paying someone to vote for me has nothing to do with democracy, its a farce.
https://youtu.be/770M2s6ZD8Y

[jojo69]

Who decided that?

This was all hammered out and ratified in the Vegas accords in 2014, I can dig up the minutes if you want.

[serveria.com]

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha  

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.   Why? Because I want it to go up.   If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...    

Dude you are so emotional about my guesses. I told you before.

If you feel depressed by any down scenarios, even though the major trend is bullish, it means you are too deep in bitcoin.

We'll get there. Hang on.

Dude I've been HODLing since 2011 nothing can make me feel depressed anymore. I've seen it all. I'm freaking invincible.  

[jbreher]

This is big.

Blockstream Reveals Massive Bitcoin Mining Facilities, Fidelity An Early Customer

Kyle Torpey at least knows how to edit.

Yeah, I dunno. What do the last three paragraphs have to do with Blockstream having large mining power?

Dude.

I am reduced to handing out credit for the simple lack of glaring errors in spelling or syntax.  I don't like it any better than you do.

Whatta world we live in, eh?