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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 3 (3.5%)
<$8,000 - 4 (4.7%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1.2%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 1 (1.2%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 3 (3.5%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 6 (7%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 16 (18.6%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 18 (20.9%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 17 (19.8%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 5 (5.8%)
>$12,000 - 7 (8.1%)
>$20,000 - 5 (5.8%)
Total Voters: 86

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21368830 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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August 10, 2019, 07:07:09 PM

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  Cool

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha   Tongue Tongue Tongue

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.  Grin Why? Because I want it to go up.  Grin If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

Now you are speaking some truth... you and your bald exec at coinbase... hahahahaha

You gotta admit that there is a difference between 50% and 20%, and it is not meaningless to throw out those kinds of numbers willy nilly.

I do the same.  I attempt to approximate what I think, but jeez I am not going to assert that there is not much if any difference between saying 55% and saying 80%.

If I ever had an 80% confidence in any short term BTC price direction, I would have pretty strong feelings to take some meaningful measures to tweak my strategies and my holdings in that direction.... Sometimes I will feel quite strongly about a short term direction, but maybe I get into the 60% or 65% arena of "strong" feelings, but those levels of conviction do not usually cause me to tweak in any kind of meaningful way.

For example, I have a theory that chances are pretty fucking good that when BTC prices significantly go above $17.5k and stay there (I am talking bitstamp brah), then there is a pretty strong likelihood that that BTC prices are going to pass to nearly $24k without any real or meaningfully strong resistance.   I am still too damned chickenshit to change my pattern of trading in that whole price range because even though I consider my confidence to be pretty damned strong, I would still only characterize such strength of my confidence to be in the 60% to 65% arena.

Anyhow, part of my point is attempting to assert that I continue to consider 80%, or the inverse, 20% to be pretty damned strong conviction levels, especially short term.
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August 10, 2019, 07:07:17 PM

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  Cool

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha   Tongue Tongue Tongue

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.  Grin Why? Because I want it to go up.  Grin If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...  Cool  

Dude you are so emotional about my guesses. I told you before.

If you feel depressed by any down scenarios, even though the major trend is bullish, it means you are too deep in bitcoin.

We'll get there. Hang on.
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August 10, 2019, 07:09:35 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

The point is that we have a standard datum of reference on the thread.
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August 10, 2019, 07:13:42 PM

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

The point is that we have a standard datum of reference on the thread.

Who decided that?

Alright, alright, I'll not be using coinbase anymore. Can't promise on bitstamp though.  Grin I heard Bitfinex is cool  Grin
JayJuanGee
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August 10, 2019, 07:17:03 PM

I am not saying coinbase is a good exchange dawg it is just a chart. I know that bald guy is in bed with Roger.

It is just when i type "btc" into the search bar, it is the first result bruh. Don't make it a big deal.

I am just saying what we do in these here parts in terms of having a bitstamp preference... whether you consider that a BIG deal or not is up to you.... I am not going to be shy about continuing to suggest that you or any others use bitstamp, and surely many of the posters here will just use bitstamp as  a courtesy...

Of course, if you find some chart using another exchange and you are not really able to replicate it (I certainly have not been in the practice of customizing charts nor memes either... I just try to find the one that best fits whatever point I am attempting to make), then you should use whatever you have and maybe mention from where you got it... inferior as that might be.. hahahahahaha


 Of course, there are several rebels including your buddy jbreher who just wuvs himselfie some coinbase.... hahahaha and of course there are others who are all over the place in regards to their use of various exchanges, besides bitstamp.. and even adamant about their supposed rebel status.. maybe you want to join those ranks of non-cooperators?  

jbear my buddy? Who the fuck is he? Must have ignored him years ago.

I think you don't know me well enuff JJ-G.


How are we supposed to really know peeps on the interwebs?  Maybe I am just trying to ruffle your feathers, and I suppose if I were to argue that the two of you must have the same handler, then I might get both of you aligning to draw and quarter me.  You know that jbreher got pretty worked up when some of us (well partly emphasized by me) continued to refer to him as a govt agent... hahahahahaha

Anyhow, point is that we should not get too worked up if we are not known too well by others on the interwebs and sometimes allegiances are tested. 

JayJuanGee
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August 10, 2019, 07:23:34 PM

[edited out]

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...  Cool  

I believe that I was saying something slightly different, but I agree with your statement too, serveria.  If something is 50/50, then it still might be o.k. to just talk about one side, but to disclose that you believe it is 50/50.  However, it is worse if you believe something is only 20% odds, but then you neither disclose that you believe it is 20% odds, while you talk about it as if you believe the odds were greater than 20%.

I give two shits about whether noobs or weak hands are scared, especially if you are actually discussing something in a way that you really believe.  It is good to put out there information of either the plus or the minus or the fears that you might have as long as you really are attempting to characterize your information and your emotions and your fears accurately.  

I would not conclude that mindrust is engaging in any kind of bad faith, but I will assert that some of what he had been saying seemed to had been a bit internally contradictory... but I don't think that he was doing it on purpose (at least mostly not).   Currently, I believe that through several of his further explanatory posts he has cleared up quite a bit of what he had been saying.  Not completely, but who needs complete clarification, anyhow?  We are all BIG boys and girl and we should be able to come to our own various conclusions.
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August 10, 2019, 07:28:26 PM

Australian Government to declare war on its people, taking steps to make cash, (gold?) crypto currency illegal through IMF influenced legislation.
Paying someone to vote for me has nothing to do with democracy, its a farce.
https://youtu.be/770M2s6ZD8Y
jojo69
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August 10, 2019, 07:41:56 PM


Who decided that?


This was all hammered out and ratified in the Vegas accords in 2014, I can dig up the minutes if you want.
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August 10, 2019, 08:06:04 PM

mindrust is overly bearish in my opinion. We've had enough of those dumps and "last down before up" theories. It's very unlikely we're going back into 4 digits.  Cool

You call that bearish? If was bearish, I would name $1k.

When that triangle gets broken, it will make a huge move. That move %80+ is going to be upwards. Why? Because that's a bull market. The small possibility is that it will be downwards to $7.5k just to build up more strength for the next upwards move.

Calm down, we'll get there. Not in a week though.

Those seem to be reasonable numbers to the extent that I understand what you are talking about.  There is a bit of a tension in your numbers... you seem to be giving a decent amount of attention to down, but then only assigning reaching below $7.5k to 20% or less.  Am I confused or what?

I mean, even if I were to assign slightly higher odds towards our lil fiend breaking upwards first, 80% plus seems to be quite high odds, but if you really were to believe that the odds of UP were that great (80% plus), then why would we be giving much, if any attention, at this time, to odds of down that would presumably be less than 20%?

I would think that the odds for reaching $7.5k in this correction to be a bit greater than 20%, maybe even approaching 40%-ish, but if we are actually talking about going to the $3,122 price arena, then the odds of going to that or below that might more reasonably be described in the less than 20% arena.

Anyhow, I find your numbers a bit confusing, and also if true your desire to focus on what you consider to be low probability events.  To attempt at better consistency, either you have to change your focus or change your numbers... hahahahahha   Tongue Tongue Tongue

Let's make this %50.

It is either going to go up, or down. It is pointless to say %20, 40 ,80 or whatever. %20 is just what I pulled out of my ass.  Grin Why? Because I want it to go up.  Grin If it goes down, I won't cry like a baby, I'll just buy more.

I think what JJG is trying to say (and I agree on this) is that I mean if it's 50:50 then why do you only describe the down scenario here? To be fair you should also speculate on the up scenario just to stay objective and not scare the shit out of the noobs and weak hands...  Cool  

Dude you are so emotional about my guesses. I told you before.

If you feel depressed by any down scenarios, even though the major trend is bullish, it means you are too deep in bitcoin.

We'll get there. Hang on.

Dude I've been HODLing since 2011 nothing can make me feel depressed anymore. I've seen it all. I'm freaking invincible. Grin 
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August 10, 2019, 08:06:47 PM


Yeah, I dunno. What do the last three paragraphs have to do with Blockstream having large mining power?

Dude.

I am reduced to handing out credit for the simple lack of glaring errors in spelling or syntax.  I don't like it any better than you do.

Whatta world we live in, eh?
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August 10, 2019, 08:10:23 PM
Last edit: August 10, 2019, 08:43:01 PM by jbreher

reaching 70% dominance. on cmc, which was always rigged in favour of alts.

BTC dominance was always over 80% until the BCH split happened. From that moment on. Or better to say a bit before that, was always uncertainty. Not just BCH steal dominance but also ETH, which many considered as BTC version two. But it ended just as a platform to crowdfund founds with illegal securities.  And it seems it lasted for two whole years.

There was an explosion of ICOs at that time. The BCH fork wasn’t a driver.

From end of 2017 Feb to mid 2017 Jun, BTC dominance plunged from over 85% to below 40%.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage

The beginning of 2017 is when blocks started becoming persistently full.
https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-size.html

The loss of dominance was due neither to BCH nor ICOs. 'Twas the Blockalypse. Or more precisely, Blockalypse I.

Nice try.

It was the ICO boom of 2017 driving up the price of ETH to 35% market dominance.  

Quote
ICOs and token sales became popular in 2017. There were at least 18 websites tracking ICOs before mid-year.[12] In May, the ICO for a new web browser called Brave generated about $35 million in under 30 seconds.[citation needed] Messaging app developer Kik's September 2017 ICO raised nearly $100 million. At the start of October 2017, ICO coin sales worth $2.3 billion had been conducted during the year, more than ten times as much as in all of 2016.[13][14] As of November 2017, there were around 50 offerings a month,[15] with the highest-grossing ICO as of January 2018, being Filecoin raising $257 million (and $200 million of that within the first hour of their token sale).[16]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Initial_coin_offering

Nice try, indeed.

Your timeline does not match up. Your wiki 'evidence' says nothing about pre-May. By 2017 May 1, BTC's dominance had already been slashed from more that 85% in end of Feb to below 60%. Indeed, a look at a chart of cumulative ICO value per month counters your assertion:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/from-2-9-billion-in-a-month-to-hundreds-dead-trends-of-the-rollercoaster-ico-market-in-18-months

One can quite clearly see that there was comparatively very little taken in by ICO's by the time 2017 Jun rolled around - and that BTC dominance had already nosedived to below 40%.

You know what timeline does match up with the plunge in market dominance? Blockalypse I.

You can try to bend history around - but we were all there and lived it.

Funny how you remember it in a manner other than which the hard numerical evidence indicates.

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You need to give up shilling your shitcoin

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.
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August 10, 2019, 08:15:07 PM

I already responded both that your facts are not correct and also,

So you're asserting that the charts I posted links to contain fraudulent figures? Interesting. I don't believe your assertion is correct, so I will tentatively conclude that you are delusional on these additional matters of fact.

I'll be happy to rescind my conclusion of delusional, just as soon as you post links to credible evidence of corrected data.

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August 10, 2019, 08:16:53 PM

Why did you not join the vote?

Poll is meaningless. I don't begrudge you having a bit of fun, but WTF is the point?
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August 10, 2019, 08:24:23 PM

Well done Nutildah!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4850225.msg52117047#msg52117047

I don’t know if You subscribed to Maggiordomo, in case you didn’t, Fillippone is here to help!

No, I didn't, for the most part I don't want to hear what others are saying about me, but this time its an exception! Thanks for the heads up.

I also want to thank my mom, Jesus Christ, of course the big man upstairs, oh and micgoossens, jbreher and who could forget JJG, for helping to push me well past the 1,000 mark, I love you all and I hope to win this award again next year! Never stop believing in yourself!! You can do anything!!!

Lovely acceptance speech. As one of the little people, it makes me proud by reflection.
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August 10, 2019, 08:27:38 PM

Aaaaaaaaaaaand, Epstein found dead in his cell...

Who didn't see that coming? 

For the better.....

Except now there wont be a trial for him where he would likely bring unwanted attention to numerous politicians including Bill Clinton for pedophilia/sex traffic related visits on his private island. But ya, good riddance just wish it would have happened after the trial.

Southern District of NY says they will continue the investigation.  Hard to believe anything will come of it though. 
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August 10, 2019, 08:27:55 PM

While most alts have been dumped, XMR and LTC have not been. I wonder why they left them. I don't think these two coins are going to perform well.

Litecoin acolytes hold heartfulls of halvening hopium.

As for Ripple, it is arguably not a cryptocurrency.
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August 10, 2019, 08:37:37 PM

Of course, there are several rebels including your buddy jbreher who just wuvs himselfie some coinbase....

::shrugs:: I get my charts where I do my bidnez. I see no point in trawling over to schtamp just to get your panties outta your crack.
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August 10, 2019, 08:41:04 PM

You know that jbreher got pretty worked up when some of us (well partly emphasized by me) continued to refer to him as a govt agent...

Go Fuck Yourself, JuniorGee.

How are we supposed to really know peeps on the interwebs? 

Didn't you know? I am mindrust's alter ego. I thought everyone already knew that.
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August 10, 2019, 08:43:26 PM

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

You can keep pushing that narrative but no one wants to use a fork owned and run by Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright. Or Roger Ver for that matter.
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August 10, 2019, 08:45:28 PM

I ain't shilling anything. I am pointing out the negative consequences -- quite reversible ones, if the community would get off it's collective delusional metaphorical fat ass -- of implementing a centrally planned production quota upon transactional capacity.

You can keep pushing that narrative but no one wants to use a fork owned and run by Calvin Ayre and Craig Wright. Or Roger Ver for that matter.  I don’t know how you can stand associating yourself with those characters.

Funny how I'm clearly talking about BTC, and you yammer on about personalities associated with other Bitcoins.
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