...Long way off as in 1 year? That's fine. We can deal with it. Or long way off like 2-3 years? That does not seem too likely.
Seems that once we are approaching 2 years, especially 2 years from right now, we are going to be long into ATHs and maybe even we might be at the end of this particular bull cycle by then. Perhaps? Perhaps? Perhaps we might get a bit front runned this time, who knows? Time will tell, and these little periods of overexcited and irrational exuberance surely shows both the power of king daddy and also that we are in early days and experiencing a bit of an underlying battle... that sometimes us mere mortal regular people just have to have enough ability and foresight to HODL through such tramas and maybe even figure out ways to skim a little profits off of the nearly inbred likelihood that we are going to have ongoing volatility including sometimes extreme short period outbursts. .....
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Yes, that is around the sort of timescale I had in mind. I am really just helping to manage expectations so that ppl are not too disappointed.
Firstly, we have accepted that BTC can behave anyway at all, but then it's pointless trying to make some sense of a chart. The WO board is purposeless if everyone is just hodling for ever.
Of course, to the extent that we are not either bots or shill/trolls, we are individuals with varying approaches to the matter, and each person is responsible for his/her own trading behavior. There is almost no way that a vast majority of peeps here are following some kind of unified strategy or that a large number of us have false expectations, as you seem to want to continue to argue and continue to strive towards attempting to save us from our lil selfies.
I am saying that IF BTC were a stock/commodity/price in the standard investing world, then the price chart/fractals/shapes are saying x y and z. This actually seems to work for 90% of the time , but very occasionally, at extended time intervals, there is a sudden supra-normal move.
That's fair enough, but why should you NOT believe that the vast majority us (especially the regulars, and likely even the newbies to this thread) already realize those kinds of BTC price dynamic possibilities, including aberrations like you suggest?
The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k,
It more likely pointed out that there was a need for some kind of break from an amazing record breaking and quick pumpening. That is hardly even close to BTC price resistance, but instead a realistic lack of ongoing buying or pumpening support to sustain such a continued outrageous excited over exuberance.
and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).
You are likely continuing to read too much into some kind of resistance when we are merely engaging in normal consolidation behaviors that also likely involves manipulation in a considerably less than fully mature market.
Assuming we ignore that analysis on a long (bull forever) view, my conclusion is that it will still be a more extended time before a challenge to the ATH. 1 to 2 years is my rough guess.
Could be. You know that I am a lot more ambivalent about making these kinds of somewhat specific calls except perhaps to criticize yours for seeming like overly long.. which causes it to be less likely than you are making it out to be as a more likely scenario.
I personally would suggest that a new ATH could come as soon as this calendar year, even though it is not too likely, but instead it is more likely that a new ATH would come 3 to 6 months after the halvening, which does put my thinking that it could come close to taking a year before we reach another ATH - but at the same time, I also believe that there seems to be some ongoing pressures and dynamics that could cause a front running that would cause such ATH to come sooner in the range that I had anticipated.
As I type through my thinking on this, I do see that there could be a play that causes a kind of manipulation of the opposite of what I believe to be a more likely scenario and to cause a dragging out of the ATH like you said, but it still kind of seems like a bit of a minority likelihood of playing out like that, even though I can see the possibility of such gamesmanship (or gaming of the powers that be or whales or whatever they are and if they can attempt to keeps some control in regards to keeping BTC prices down).
I know that is going contrary to the halvening theory, so it's a really contrarian call, and I guess I am comfortable being a vilified contrarian.
Fair enough. You deserve some vilifying for your ongoing overly-pessimism.. and maybe your purposefully taking a more negative view in order to exaggerate a worse case scenario that even you realize is not as likely as you are making it out to be.
You are not completely going against any theories of the halvening, because there does seem to be a kind of pattern in which it can take several months after the halvening for the actual effects to really meaningfully and materially be felt, so 6 months to 18 months after the halvening are within ranges of reasonable contemplation - but also I just get some senses that there are some behind the scenes forces that are buying too much bitcoin, which is likely to cause a whole hell of a lot more front running than your more overly pessimistic scenario seems to be projecting.
The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k, and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).
I don't know nuttin' 'bout no conventional analysis, so I'll just ask. Does conventional analysis really consider a positive overshoot spike the same as being rebuffed at a resistance level?
Looks like jbreher beat me in his posting about this particular point (which is similar to what I said in one of my above responses)...
The recent exceptional spike has pointed out resistance at 10.5k, and, coming below the strong resistance at 13.5k, it is a bearish indicator (in conventional analysis).
No it's not. Hitting resistance on the way to another resistance isn't bearish. It's expected. Any asset emerging from a downtrend is going to hit resistance on the way up.
Did you really expect to go straight to the $13,000s without stopping?
Looks like illyiller beat me, too, in making the same point regarding the significance of the end of the extra-ordinary price run that we had yesterday... and yeah, that is neither any kind of meaningful showing of resistance nor a bearish sign.
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