Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[nutildah]

You keep trying to harp on penalty claims, when over and over again I point out that penalty claims are not the exclusive means for losing funds in LN. Ergo, irrelevant.

The whole thing was in response to your question, which was lost somewhere along the way:

But tell me - why is it assumed that there were penalty claims?

So I told you.

(meaningless ego-based banter snipped out)

For the record, I'm ambivalent on the matter. I don't know, (and I don't much care) whether or not the described event occurred as described (although I know it to be possible within the design of LN, which may or may not give the passerby pause). But I am not willing to propagate hearsay as fact -- something which you are demonstrably altogether happy to do.

I can't make you understand that hearsay is only bad when applied to court room trials. Without doing that, almost every single news article that contains a rephrasing of another's words could be considered "hearsay."

If you are interested in the actual findings, here's where things currently stand:

guggero 4:39 PM

Hi. I did write the tool to figure out what's going on with your channels.
This is what it looks from the file (listchannels-guggero.txt from Oct. 23):
- Channels still open (funding-TX not spent): 115 (101342555 sats)
- Channels that were closed (funding-TX spent): 295
   - Funds in outputs that belong to your node: 268829394 sats
   - Of those funds, 139479289 sats are in normal on-chain outputs that should be salvageable just with the seed.
So I guess there's still around 3.7 BTC that should in theory be claimable.

In an earlier post, he determined that he only had 3.73452874 BTC missing after the dust settled...

3.7345 - 3.7 = 0.0345 still missing, if not accounted for by

1 - rounding done by guggero
2 - penalty transactions
3 - "unjust enrichment"

So basically, the entire thing actually was FUD, even if unintentional on the part of the guy who "lost" his coins. Basically my hunch was correct, and yours wasn't. You can point to whatever you consider to be a logical inconsistency in previous iterations of the argument but it doesn't change the outcome of me being right.

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[Bitcoinaire]

More downward pressure, but with the halving 6 months away the tide will slowly start to turn more positive.

[HI-TEC99]

But the mesh chairs aren't going to be as comfortable as finding a well-designed memory foam chair (if they even exist).

Says the person who -- in the very same sentence -- admits he's never sat in one.

<whatevs>

I'm sitting comfortably in the chair you derided, while you're whinging about your chair's lumbar support pain. Observers can draw their own conclusions.

Are you sure it's safe? I threw some memory foam away after reading about the dodgy chemicals in it.

Are you sure you haven't lost the plot? It appears you are asking me? I'm not the one touting memory foam. For reference:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg53059453#msg53059453

Sorry, I misconstrued your post. I wasn't familiar with classy chairs like the $500+ Carl Tatz eChair, or the $1000+ Aeron.

I thought you were referring to something like the Sanwa Direct Fluffy Floor Chair Memory Foam Urethane & Mesh.



This is the type of chair I'm familiar with.



Either that or the Fluffy Floor Chair.

[JayJuanGee]

I am expecting Bitcoin to bounce off of $8500, it would be the .618 from the huge candle from October, and proceed to break the falling wedge within a few days.

My target was just hit, I do believe its possible we go a down to $8300, but it will be short lived, if not we are on our way up now guys

 

Moving goal poles..... 


By the way, I was thinking that if BTC does not go down further or sideways then it probably will go up.  So that was a very helpful way to work through what is likely to happen.   

[Hueristic]

I am expecting Bitcoin to bounce off of $8500, it would be the .618 from the huge candle from October, and proceed to break the falling wedge within a few days.

My target was just hit, I do believe its possible we go a down to $8300, but it will be short lived, if not we are on our way up now guys

 

Moving goal poles..... 


By the way, I was thinking that if BTC does not go down further or sideways then it probably will go up.  So that was a very helpful way to work through what is likely to happen.   

Yeah, yeah know I was thinking the same exact thing but then I remembered bitcoin never does what I think it will do so maybe it will just explode or something!

[Negotiation]

Re: "Bitcoin won't go up, there is no volume"

The volume shows up when we break ATH.

That's when the magic starts happening.



Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoBull/status/1195076147861762056



i hope go up soon.BTC

[JayJuanGee]

I am expecting Bitcoin to bounce off of $8500, it would be the .618 from the huge candle from October, and proceed to break the falling wedge within a few days.

My target was just hit, I do believe its possible we go a down to $8300, but it will be short lived, if not we are on our way up now guys

 

Moving goal poles..... 


By the way, I was thinking that if BTC does not go down further or sideways then it probably will go up.  So that was a very helpful way to work through what is likely to happen.   

Yeah, yeah know I was thinking the same exact thing but then I remembered bitcoin never does what I think it will do so maybe it will just explode or something!

You are being too rough on your own genius, Hueristic.  Of course, if you were to only predict one price direction, such as up, then you would have a lot higher chances of being wrong.

But, I was thinking that BTC prices could go up, but on the other hand they could go sideways or down, in the event that they do not go up.  but in the event that they do not go either sideways or down, then surely the odds are considerably high that they must go up. 

Surely any of us is correct in our BTC price predictions, so long as we make sure that we cover all possible BTC price directions.  But then are we saying anything?

[Hueristic]

.. genius, Hueristic. ...

Hey u used an oxymoron!

But, I was thinking that BTC prices could go up, but on the other hand they could go sideways or down, in the event that they do not go up.  but in the event that they do not go either sideways or down, then surely the odds are considerably high that they must go up. 

Surely any of us is correct in our BTC price predictions, so long as we make sure that we cover all possible BTC price directions.  But then are we saying anything?

unequivocal Logic there.



BTW for any of you guys that didn't see the end of the Steelers/Browns game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT_EjH1_xZc

[Bossian]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

[Lauda]

I spy with my little kitty eye..

[El duderino_]

^^ Good real TA doesn’t apply to corn

[El duderino_]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

Expecting slow and steady growth for $BTC in 2020.

via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://twitter.com/galaxybtc/status/1195028502233399297?s=21

Just give me my weekend hopium

[jojo69]

It does have a certain pleasing symmetry about it.  I approve.

[Hueristic]

...

...

You know the real point is this is BETA software and the guy was an idiot to test BETA software with funds he did not want to lose. There is even a warning not to use funds you are not willing to lose. Devs even reiterated this point on Sept 30th with the bug announcement.

People these days always treat BETA as release and I blame M$.

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

Expecting slow and steady growth for $BTC in 2020.

via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://twitter.com/galaxybtc/status/1195028502233399297?s=21

Just give me my weekend hopium

This will be acceptable, night all.

Edit: I think I'll check what Cnbc says tomorrow and do the opposite.

[Bossian]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

Expecting slow and steady growth for $BTC in 2020.

via Imgflip Meme Generator


https://twitter.com/galaxybtc/status/1195028502233399297?s=21

Just give me my weekend hopium

Well the big difficulty will be to break that white line that you just posted, if we break it of course it's looking very good.

Anyway, for me things are quite simple at the moment. Bear market is clear now. It's not the time to buy, just monitor, maybe even sell and buy back below 8k. There is nothing to indicate we break that white line. It is just gambling at this stage.

BUT the good thing is, I will monitor the price for month, I don't think we break this line before a few months, but if we break above 12.4k next year I will put all my savings into BTC for a target at 19k or 20k. If we break 12.4k if won't be a question that we go to 15k or 16k, we will get there easily. That would be the easiest money ever. Just hope we get there.

[JayJuanGee]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian.

Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours? 

Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400.   What's so special about $6,400?  Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880?  $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia. 

We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later.

[bitserve]

Last time I started to be worried and depressed we rallied from the bottom. Not sure if I feel depressed enough already... but it's not that far.

On the other hand I still think we are somewhat ahead on price schedule and that's probably the reason I am not so much worried.

As soon as I feel like the sky is gonna fall onto my head I will let you guys know so you can act accordingly. DYOR though.

I am starting to think we need one final capitulation event (which doesn't mean a lower bottom) before the halving rally. We will see.

HODL.

[makrospex]

Last time I started to be worried and depressed we rallied from the bottom. Not sure if I feel depressed enough already... but it's not that far.

On the other hand I still think we are somewhat ahead on price schedule and that's probably the reason I am not so much worried.

As soon as I feel like the sky is gonna fall onto my head I will let you guys know so you can act accordingly. DYOR though.

I am starting to think we need one final capitulation event (which doesn't mean a lower bottom) before the halving rally. We will see.

HODL.

Somebody just needs to give away 50 BTC for Kryptonianus, who speaks in plural of himself (like an emperor).
Everything will be fine after!

The poophole references in this post were not intended, btw.

[Bossian]

Frankly it is not looking good at the moment, I would even say it's time to sell, and buy back below 8k. I am pretty sure we are heading towards 7k-ish but hopefully we never go back below 6.4k. If we go back below 6.4 there will be a lot of blood (not like the movie).
Then in the middle term there should be a bounce back above 10k (I hope) but breaking above 11k and most importantly above 12.4k will be very tough.
Just hoping the halving will make things move to our advantage, but the technical analysis is looking very ugly in the short term  

You make our current situation sound so dire, Bossian.

Do you remember that on October 25, we had 42% in 12 hours from $7,300 to $10,300, and if we get back to $7,300 over the following month or so (which would bring us to November 25), do you think that we are worse off merely because we went back to the starting point of what had happened in 12 hours?  

Well, we gotta get back to $7,300 first, I suppose, but I doubt that the situation is as dire as you are making it out to be, even if we were to get below $6,400.   What's so special about $6,400?  Remember from April 1, to June 27, we went from $4,200 to $13,880?  $6,400 does not even bring us back down to $4,200, but we would have to get down to $6,400 first, and we seem quite a ways off from $6,400, but hey, things happen fast in bitcoinlandia, so I would be prepared to buy, instead of thinking about selling and then end up being wrong in the even that BTC prices were to stop going down... .and surely we see those kinds of things happening in bitcoinlandia.  

We have jonoiv still waiting for sub $6k for more than a 6 months, and we have some others who are still hoping for sub $3k, which yeah, they might get lucky, but I would rather be buying on the way down rather than taking some actions (such as selling now) and then regret it later.

I was looking closely yesterday at the technical analysis and it's clear the major support is around 6.4k, that's why this price is scary (for me, I may be wrong), on the other hand the price of 12.4k is very exciting. Of course we can go back above 10k, I hope so.

Frankly, I bought at the worst moment (9.3k), if we go close to 10k I will sell. Because right now I am not confident. BUT after selling everything I got at 10k I will wait for 12.4k. If we pass that price then I buy again even more (won't care about the small lack or earning between 10k and 12.4k because it won't matter much. I will feel much better and safer in selling at 10k and then wait, because above 12.4k it's basically free money (strong resistance). If we pass 12.4k then the long term trend is looking crazy good. My personal opinion of course best of luck to us.

[bitserve]

Last time I started to be worried and depressed we rallied from the bottom. Not sure if I feel depressed enough already... but it's not that far.

On the other hand I still think we are somewhat ahead on price schedule and that's probably the reason I am not so much worried.

As soon as I feel like the sky is gonna fall onto my head I will let you guys know so you can act accordingly. DYOR though.

I am starting to think we need one final capitulation event (which doesn't mean a lower bottom) before the halving rally. We will see.

HODL.

Somebody just needs to give away 50 BTC for Kryptonianus, who speaks in plural of himself (like an emperor).
Everything will be fine after!

The poophole references in this post were not intended, btw.

Please don't invoke that clown. It was funny the first few times, but not anymore. And please no more escrow offers either