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Question: Where will this rally top out?
Already topped <$7,000 - 19 (26.8%)
$7,000-$7,499 - 5 (7%)
$7,500-$7,999 - 8 (11.3%)
$8,000-$8,499 - 4 (5.6%)
$8,500-$8,999 - 5 (7%)
$9,000-$9,499 - 1 (1.4%)
$9,500-$9,999 - 0 (0%)
$10K+ - 29 (40.8%)
Total Voters: 71

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21585873 times)
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serveria.com
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November 19, 2019, 07:28:48 PM


OMG! That is some crazy shit!  Shocked
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HairyMaclairy
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November 19, 2019, 07:31:15 PM

Easy peasy lemon squeezy



What happens when if it goes below that bottom line?  

Feary teary lemon dreary?

Limes.  Big lime volume.  
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November 19, 2019, 07:38:22 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

[...]

If you choose to mix your on-line and your personal life then that is a choice that you make, and surely you have discretion regarding how you want to do it.

Still there are opsec issues, and there are a decently large number of folks who prefer not to roll like that... and maybe sooner or later, these real life encounters are going to cause a decently large number of the encounters to become public faces in the bitcoin space, whether initially wanted to be the case or not.  

If you are willing to take chances that you might become a publicly known person in the space, then of course, you can do that and many people prefer NOT to have such a life, even though there are a lot of publicly known people in the bitcoin space, and they likely have decent lives and they may or may not have intended to go down such a road... Actually, there are people who started out having an online persona that later became public, and whether they are happy about it or not, frequently it will be harder to undo something like that than to do it.  

So all good and fun if several of you want to juggle with these chainsaws, and it is all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.

So, even though you have a preference to potentially go public or potentially screw up your opsec, stop trying to suggest that everyone should be making the same kinds of opsec decisions, because that is pure irresponsible to be suggesting such norms, when the world does not work like that, especially in a space in which there could be decently high risks to screwing up OPsec in unwitting ways and NOT properly personally assessing some of the negative consequences of either purposefully or accidentally creating Opsec holes.


But then again.... people have met me, but who of my team did they met with @JJG??  Tongue

Does it matter?  Are you attempting to suggest that there is more validity to coming out as either a public person or a quasi-public person? Are you trying to suggest that members or lesser if they choose to attempt to exercise meaningful Opsec?  

Get real, and again, it is a bit irritating if you are trying to suggest that your chosen level of Opsec (or lacking thereof, or choices to share your relative lack of opsec) is preferable, merely because you believe that you are getting value from it and other peeps that you met in real life that happen to be WO members are also perceiving themselves to getting value from these kinds of mixing the meat space engagement decisions.

Exactly! Some of us may be hoDLing a decent amount of coins and/or may not want to be identifiably labelled as hoDLers. No matter how strong our passphrases are, you can be absolutely certain that a $5 wrench in the right hands can unlock your wallets. And I sure wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of that wrench...



It's for the exact same reason that I would never publicly (IRL) show off my coin stash. Even wearing clothing implying that you HoDL BTC may one day be an extremely dangerous thing to do. And if you do it today, some bad guys may remember you... Imagine yourself going out wearing a "Just HoDL it!" T-shirt when 1 BTC = $1m... To me it's not bravery, not even arrogance, it's just plain stupidity.

Some relevant news: https://www.ccn.com/turkish-police-bust-bitcoin-extortionists-who-netted-3-54-million-from-victims/


Totally understandable.
Recently group of people were jailed in my country for home invasion on a crypto trader. They said to harm his wife and daughter (9 months old) if he doesn't give them access to his crypto exchange accounts. However, they acted and dressed like employees of a parcel delivery service and he let them in.
You guys, my wife and one of my children know that i'm in crypto. I wouldn't tell anybody, but i remind people of the opportunity to buy bitcoin and rarely even tell them that that's what i would do. I would never go out there and feel like a better person because i am hodling and act any like that. People doing that for their ego maybe even deserve the wrench, but that's beyond my "personal judgement boundaries".

Sorry, today i'm really exhausted and my english semantics module seems to be buggy.
Time to let mary j. go over me and put me into early hodlsleep (c)micg.
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November 19, 2019, 07:49:31 PM

Possible choppy waters ahead. Trade with caution.


https://twitter.com/whalecalls
I have to admit first, that I am not a trader and I don't understand everything completely. Here are my questions and thoughts related to your frequent posts of bitmex liquidations. What is the relation between bitmex and the price of Bitcoin? In particular, why do you think that a liquidation of a long position precedes a dump in the price (which is implied by your post)? As far as I know, Bitmex is a derivate exchange and some contracts are cash settled, others physically, but I have no clue what portion is each. On the other hand, if there is an option for short/long positions involving real bitcoins that have to be sold/bought to cover/close the positions on the major exchanges like bitfinex and binance (I think they have their own short/long game looking at https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator/#), this may affect the price. But I don't see why the traders on the major exchanges will be influenced by what is going on on CME, bakkt, bitmex, etc. These futures and leverage tradings are like roulette - the player vs the house. Unless some manipulator dumps first on bitstamp, coinbase and kraken (which form the price index of Bitmex), I don't see any other connection with the price. And in that case, first is the pump or dump, then the closing of long/short positions, not the reverse. Or I miss something?

Arbitrage. 

You can arbitrage positions between futures and physical.
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November 19, 2019, 08:25:27 PM

it's just plain stupidity.



Sooooo?? What about a tattoo? How stupid do you label me? For having a rollercoaster?

To promote or believe and exploit .... why not ...

I do agree nobody should talk about holdings or whatever, and especially not those with a decent amount, but why wouldn’t the low-ballers be meeting up
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November 19, 2019, 08:44:50 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1)

[...]

If you choose to mix your on-line and your personal life then that is a choice that you make, and surely you have discretion regarding how you want to do it.

Still there are opsec issues, and there are a decently large number of folks who prefer not to roll like that... and maybe sooner or later, these real life encounters are going to cause a decently large number of the encounters to become public faces in the bitcoin space, whether initially wanted to be the case or not.  

If you are willing to take chances that you might become a publicly known person in the space, then of course, you can do that and many people prefer NOT to have such a life, even though there are a lot of publicly known people in the bitcoin space, and they likely have decent lives and they may or may not have intended to go down such a road... Actually, there are people who started out having an online persona that later became public, and whether they are happy about it or not, frequently it will be harder to undo something like that than to do it.  

So all good and fun if several of you want to juggle with these chainsaws, and it is all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.

So, even though you have a preference to potentially go public or potentially screw up your opsec, stop trying to suggest that everyone should be making the same kinds of opsec decisions, because that is pure irresponsible to be suggesting such norms, when the world does not work like that, especially in a space in which there could be decently high risks to screwing up OPsec in unwitting ways and NOT properly personally assessing some of the negative consequences of either purposefully or accidentally creating Opsec holes.


But then again.... people have met me, but who of my team did they met with @JJG??  Tongue

Does it matter?  Are you attempting to suggest that there is more validity to coming out as either a public person or a quasi-public person? Are you trying to suggest that members or lesser if they choose to attempt to exercise meaningful Opsec?  

Get real, and again, it is a bit irritating if you are trying to suggest that your chosen level of Opsec (or lacking thereof, or choices to share your relative lack of opsec) is preferable, merely because you believe that you are getting value from it and other peeps that you met in real life that happen to be WO members are also perceiving themselves to getting value from these kinds of mixing the meat space engagement decisions.

Exactly! Some of us may be hoDLing a decent amount of coins and/or may not want to be identifiably labelled as hoDLers. No matter how strong our passphrases are, you can be absolutely certain that a $5 wrench in the right hands can unlock our wallets. And I sure wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of that wrench...



It's for the exact same reason that I would never publicly (IRL) show off my coin stash. Even wearing clothing implying that you HoDL BTC may one day be an extremely dangerous thing to do. And if you do it today, some bad guys may remember you... Imagine yourself going out wearing a "Just HoDL it!" T-shirt when 1 BTC = $1m... To me it's not bravery, not even arrogance, it's just plain stupidity.

Some relevant news: https://www.ccn.com/turkish-police-bust-bitcoin-extortionists-who-netted-3-54-million-from-victims/

 IMO it's not much different than "wearing" a nice home/car/watch.  Location is everything.  Stay out of Turkey, anywhere in Africa would also be off my list as well as most eastern European countries and all of Russia, most if not all of the Phillipines... here's a map



 If it isn't green or yellow, it isn't safe to have nice things especially if you aren't familiar with the area.  I'll make up a little niche map later for the yellow areas.  Situational Awareness is key.
I need my Bitcoin toque!

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November 19, 2019, 08:50:44 PM
Merited by xhomerx10 (2), JayJuanGee (1)

Caps of the people who posted in this thread in the last 15 days:



It's a part of my art; can't afford to have more clarity/size in the image because there are opsec resolution issues.
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November 19, 2019, 08:51:37 PM
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So, $100K party in Somalia?
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November 19, 2019, 08:53:18 PM
Last edit: November 19, 2019, 10:14:51 PM by AlcoHoDL
Merited by vapourminer (1), Last of the V8s (1)

it's just plain stupidity.

Sooooo?? What about a tattoo? How stupid do you label me? For having a rollercoaster?

To promote or believe and exploit .... why not ...

I do agree nobody should talk about holdings or whatever, and especially not those with a decent amount, but why wouldn’t the low-ballers be meeting up

You can promote it, I also do it in cases where I know or trust my audience. Hell, I even gave a lecture about it to my students. But I never told anyone (well, just a select few) how many coins I have. I do it like Andreas Antonopoulos who has repeatedly said he doesn't hold any coins.

I just wanted to stress the obvious here: which is to never boast and show off your stash. You don't need to. I can understand the tattoo because I think you are a young guy that's excited about crypto and you want to tell the world about it. That's a nice thing, that's a healthy thing, and everyone should promote and advertise something that's so powerful and revolutionary as Bitcoin. Except that you must take into account that when lots of money is involved the real world can be very, very nasty and ugly and corrupt and those of us who advertise they are involved in crypto and hoDL coins may become targets. And this is expected to intensify as the fiat value of BTC keeps increasing. Back in 2015 I didn't care about this. But when we reached 4 digits things got too serious to ignore.

It's just common sense, and no, I don't think you're stupid. Just a very excited, nice, cool guy.

https://blog.trezor.io/keep-quiet-about-your-coins-crypto-cryptocurrencies-privacy-b44ad6d6c9d1
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November 19, 2019, 08:53:37 PM



You sure Mr. Xi is a good guy?
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November 19, 2019, 08:59:19 PM

So, $100K party in Somalia?

I'm ready

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November 19, 2019, 09:27:42 PM


 I tried to make china orange.  Just to be sure, avoid China with your bling hangin' out.

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November 19, 2019, 09:29:06 PM

So, $100K party in Somalia?

You can prolly buy Somalia for $100K  Grin
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November 19, 2019, 09:36:46 PM
Merited by makrospex (1)

In that regard, the alleged manipulators might have to change sides when the BTC price starts moving against them in order to attempt to recuperate their losses in the opposite direction of their original intended manipulation, so would those kinds of behaviors and dynamics be fairly characterized as manipulation or just reasonable and expected dynamics of a relatively small free market?

Yes, they would have to, if these manipulators actually exist.
At least the appeal - or eventuality - that such exist and do successfully more or less willingly or unwillingly, significantly manipulate prices, the trust into bitcoin as an investment would likely decrease, mostly by (future) retail customers.

I am not sure whether we are arguing about semantics or merely just some amount of variation in regards to how we speculate about the manipulation going on or the possible impact of such purported manipulation.

There might be some BTC/market/price dynamics that we actually agree upon, and then there would be questions regarding how we might characterize those dynamics, and their effects on either the market or perceptions of the market.

Imo, it's a question of the viewpoint. We could call any buy/sell operation that ultimately has the goal to change market value, for the very own advantage, manipulation. Whereas (pure) market dynamics would be just mathematical outcome of the sum of all trading moves, over time.
Intention to impact the price, for whatever reason, would be clearly manipulation, from my point of view.

It seems to me that part of my problem with the term manipulation is when it seems to being used to ascribe a fairly narrow set  of players or events and then to assert that BTC prices were moved because of those events, and in essence, I was kind of latching onto the correlation that you were attempting to assert in regards to the BAKKT trade volume going up and coinciding with downward BTC price movements - and thereafter suggesting that BAKKT players were causing the BTC's price to go down through their manipulations.



Shouldn't we already agree that there are going to be whale players who are going to want to manipulate bitcoin down as much as they can and for as long as they can, and they are going to use actual physical manipulations such as dumping coins, and if they can they are going to attempt to engage in dirty tactics such as fractional reserves and whatever they can to time their dumpenings and they are going to use information or misinformation campaigns in order to attempt to create negative impressions about bitcoin, but in the end, how far and for how long are they going to be able to be successful in keeping the BTC price down.

Not only for the purpose of keeping down, but to enrich themselves by triggering downtrends by hitting stop-loss-orders, breaking "support lines", to accumulate more coins at lower prices, to extend this dirty play, for whatever reason(s).
The projection would be: What if i am a whale and be evil, what would i do?

Yeah, but isn't there a kind of desire by all BIG players to want to be able to use their resources to make more money?  Of course, if you are a kind of true believer in BTC, you might not want to take such risks that your manipulation attempts might end up ruining your investment, but true bear whales do not likely have any such attachment to BTC and/or they may even rationalize that they are providing a kind of service to the whole price finding mechanisms to push the price as far as they are able to do it.. and of course, bitcoin is much more of a wild wild west as compared with a lot of other markets, so the tools available and the limitations (to the extent that they exist) are going to cause a different weighing of how to attempt to play the market to your advantage if you have the means to do so and are willing to attempt to do it.


Those fucks tried and tried and tried to keep BTC prices below $500, but they lost control.  Same is true at other BTC price points, so what makes you believe that they are going to be any more successful this time?  Are they going to be able to get BTC prices to go below $3,122?  The odds seem quite highly against them, so who the fuck cares if they are able to drag out this particular correction for months and months and months, because in the end, they are going to have to give in and allow or chase BTC's price up.

I don't believe that they are going to be more successful, but at least successful. I was raised to be good, not to be evil, annoying, selfish or whatever Karma wouldn't like. That's why i condemn any of the opposite.

Even the manipulators are not necessarily evil, and they likely have ways that they can rationalize away their behavior.  You know that there are so many inexperienced people in the bitcoin and crypto space, and more experienced traders can recognize the trading in bitcoin to be part of the school of hard knocks, and if you get into the pool with sharks, you better bring the right equipment, otherwise you are going to get yourself into a world of pain.

By the way, I am not really suggesting that all whales are even engaging in legal or fair means, and there might be some whales that are able to work some of their inside positions to play in a way that might be illegal, if they were caught or even could cost them in large ways if they were caught, too.

Surely there is a lot of imperfect information too, and sure none of us really know how far the BTC price can be pushed in one direction or another and many of the smaller players are going to have fewer resources available to them to attempt to figure it out which way the BTC price is going to go.  And, there may even be a decent number of BIG players who end up getting burned BIGGLY because they overplay their hand in one direction or another.  So sometimes even if you are BIG, you might not consider it to be in your interest to attempt to play some avenues of possible "manipulation" because it might not work... then you are fucked with less value or sometimes even losing your whole stash because of overplaying your hand.

You're right. In the long run it doesn't make a difference to bitcoin at all, but there are victims, and i don't like that.

Yeah... in the longer run, bitcoin is going to do what it does, and sure it is possible that we are all on a kind of ride, and bitcoin is going to zero, but if we have been studying the space long enough, we are not so fooled by what seems to be quite an unlikely direction - but there are a large number of other people who are fooled by such proposition that bitcoin is going to zero and even place their bets on some variation of such, and end up getting screwed.   Of course there are going to be winners and losers, and surely it can feel a bit painful if either you are the loser or you know people who end up losing or getting screwed, but there is frequently a lot of those kinds of injustices in the world, and it seems quite likely to me, that bitcoin is a whole hell of a lot more biased in favor of the little guy than a lot of other systems, but even the little guy has to somehow figure out to not attempt to engage in certain kinds of gambling strategies, and there are ways for the little guy to win the fuck out of this whole situation if s/he engages in decently prudent balancing including a lot of the basics that many of us here tend to preach such as: not gambling, dollar cost average buying, accumulating and HODLing, don't invest more than you can lose, get your finances and psychology in order, etc etc.

I have no doubts that there are BIG ASS players who can keep BTC's price down further and for longer than reasonable or rational, but they are also ONLY likely to be able to achieve their objectives for so long, and that is likely what happened in late 2015 when they could no longer keep BTC's price down.  Same could happen this time.  If they can get BTC's price to go below $3,122 then there are going to be a lot of jaded folks, but what the fuck are HODLers like us going to do at those price points?  Hopefully we are buying rather than selling, but anyhow, let them manipulate and try to get the price to go down.  That is what we expect them to attempt to do, but BTC prices are still way the fuck higher than they were a few years ago, and that is surely not because whale manipulators wanted BTC's prices to be in these current $8k-ish territories.  If it was up to them, we would still be below $500. 

In contrast, i mostly believe that they drag down overall market sentiments, watch prices go down and use their liquidated Fiat to rebuy at lower prices, to milk off some money and level up their dirty game over time.

I am not concluding that you are wrong with your various assessments, including the fact that many whales might go down a road of dirty that is much LARGER than you consider to be acceptable or relateable, but in the end, the world works like that, so the best that we can do as individuals is to attempt to prepare our own positions for various kinds of likely outcomes, even extreme outcomes that seem way beyond what is reasonably possible.    So, yeah, you are correct that propaganda, misinformation is going to be coupled with dumping or whatever is possible to push the BTC price way further in a direction that us little fishes might consider to be outrageous, and we have to be prepared financially and psychologically for such extremes.  It is possible that the four year fractal that many of us here are on and on about, ends up NOT playing out like we had thought that it would, and BTC prices end up going below $3,122, which could even bring such prices below $2k - and then a lot of us would become quite deflated by such an occurrence that does not seem to be very likely, but there are probably a decent number of large players, such as financial institutions and governments that would love to achieve such an outcome, but just because they want it, how likely is such a scenario, and should we be spending a lot of time on such a scenario when there are more likely and better scenarios that we should be preparing for (even though we should prepare for negative extremes, too).

So, yeah, a lot of us can become negative feeling, merely from the price where we are at right now, and we were contemplating that we would be in the 5 digits rather than 4 digits with several dweebs - people talking about $6,400 and lower, but bitcoin works like that.  I mean it is decently possible that bear whales get us down to our most recent low of $7,293 and then all of a sudden an exchange is hacked or china bans bitcoin or some other nonsense, and we have been there before, but if you recognize the bullshit, you realize that you should be either buying or HODLing as a preferable practice, even though some of those scenarios could happen, they are far from guaranteed, and we could end up having another BTC price spurt upwards, right when you got greedy and sold some of your BTC stash in order to prepare for $6,400 that never even comes close to happening.
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November 19, 2019, 09:44:50 PM

it's just plain stupidity.

Sooooo?? What about a tattoo? How stupid do you label me? For having a rollercoaster?

To promote or believe and exploit .... why not ...

I do agree nobody should talk about holdings or whatever, and especially not those with a decent amount, but why wouldn’t the low-ballers be meeting up

Again, you are trying to rationalize away that it is a good idea to engage in certain kinds of Opsec that others would not want to do.  Yeah, maybe someday, everyone would have a rollercoaster on their arm, and sure maybe you are leading the way to a new future of everyone gets a long and has good morals (including peeps that are met on the interwebs, including how to screen peeps that end up knowing or assuming more about your finances than they should), but that still does not mean it is good Opsec to either brag about your choices or to attempt to influence other people into creating weaker opsec because it feels good man.
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November 19, 2019, 10:16:59 PM
Merited by P_Shep (5), BobLawblaw (2)

Is it Thursday yet?
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November 19, 2019, 10:23:54 PM

Is it Thursday yet?

Pity it ain’t
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November 19, 2019, 10:25:15 PM

I was raised to be good, not to be evil, annoying, selfish or whatever Karma wouldn't like. That's why i condemn any of the opposite. You're right. In the long run it doesn't make a difference to bitcoin at all

Talk about the epitome of self-righteous retards.  Since transaction validators are designed to centralize and tokens are non-fungible, and it's not even possible to create a decentralized digital shitcoin in the first place (distributed!=decentralized), it's impossible for the endgame evolution of any non-fungible shitcoin to be anything besides a permissioned ledger, Chinese social credit score, surveillance system that empowers the state.

Ted Kaczynski was right, and you are both wrong and fucking stupid at the same time, not to mention a self-righteous jackass pretending to be the greater good when you're in fact evil incarnate by promoting this garbage and trying to trick other people into using it instead of real decentralized money like physical metals.  Since you have the intellect of a small, retarded child, let me make it REALLY FUCKING SIMPLE for you:

Non-fungible token with designed to centralize chokepoint transaction validators = always dystopia, always permissioned ledger in the end, always empowers the state (aka Bitcoin)

Fungible tokens without designed to centralize chokepoint validators = disempowers the state (aka physical metals, a crypto equivalent does not exist because it's impossible to create)
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November 19, 2019, 10:27:47 PM

The amount of FUD out there is ridiculous right now. Do people forget how much has changed in one year?!? A year ago we still had not even reached $3100. We went on a run from $3100 to $13900 starting in April to June (A 3 month span)which we hit 5 months ago........5 months. So even if we are in some sort of new bear market, we are ALREADY five months into it......the last one lasted a full year. I don't think we are in a bear market by any means, I think within 6 months we will be in a bullish environment, and in a year from now we will be above $13900, and perhaps $20,000.
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November 19, 2019, 10:43:52 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4)

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