Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

I am curious about this: in a scenario where btc is 100K, how the on-chain fees would look like: $1, $10 or $100? Some are predicting $100.
Presumably, high on-chain fees would move many tx to LN, but i am specifically interested in on-chain fees.
Theoretically, if btc is 100K and you transfer just 0.1BTC, then even $10 fee (which is about 200X current fee) is only 0.1% of the tx value.
Raise the fee to $100 and it is 1% which is getting into vicinity of what we call high fees (like 3% paypal fee or similar credit card fees).

The point I am trying to make is that with $10-100 fees, low value tx (below $1000-10000) would be squeezed and hopefully directed toward LN.
In general, at some point I would suggest to consolidate smaller wallets while the fees are still low. BTW, today 2sats/byte does the job fast, no need to pay higher.

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[HairyMaclairy]

Some shots I took from the plane on my most recent flight a weeks back. 

The white stuff is bushfire smoke.  Its like this for most of the New South Wales coast. 

[Hueristic]

Damn planets burning down.

[Biodom]

The question is: can we stop it (environmental degradation, etc etc) or are we already on the path that will lead somewhere with less number of people on the planet via all possible negative scenarios. Where I live, the city keeps getting flooded plus getting hit by major hurricanes. People still tend to be optimistic and rebuilt, but it might not be sustainable going forward.
As a result, RE is stagnating a bit with people staying put.

[Hueristic]

The question is: can we stop it (environmental degradation, etc etc) or are we already on the path that will lead somewhere with less number of people on the planet via all possible negative scenarios. Where I live, the city keeps getting flooded plus getting hit by major hurricanes. People still tend to be optimistic and rebuilt, but it might not be sustainable going forward.
As a result, RE is stagnating a bit with people staying put.

We need to learn how to roll with the punches, continually rebuilding in areas that constantly get swatted is down right stupid and if the Government didn't keep footing the bill then people wouldn't stay in those places. Give them the funds to move not to rebuild, theres a reason places are called shit like Tornado alley!

[smartcomet]

https://www.500headlinesaboutbitcoin.com/

...
10 Bitcoin might still be in its 56k modem days. But broadband is closer than you think.
...
44 Bitcoin is half as old as email was before everyone had it. Clock’s ticking.
..
50 Bitcoin and Wikipedia are more alike than you think. And you love Wikipedia.
...
63 The future of technology. The future of money. The future of freedom.
...

[Biodom]

The question is: can we stop it (environmental degradation, etc etc) or are we already on the path that will lead somewhere with less number of people on the planet via all possible negative scenarios. Where I live, the city keeps getting flooded plus getting hit by major hurricanes. People still tend to be optimistic and rebuilt, but it might not be sustainable going forward.
As a result, RE is stagnating a bit with people staying put.

We need to learn how to roll with the punches, continually rebuilding in areas that constantly get swatted is down right stupid and if the Government didn't keep footing the bill then people wouldn't stay in those places. Give them the funds to move not to rebuild, theres a reason places are called shit like Tornado alley!

It's hard to do in areas where things burned down as you can't say: "it will always burn".
flooding-I tend to agree, but then we would have much much less space to live.
Somehow, dutch fixed the flooding problem. It's just the matter of proper engineering.
If such endeavor is expensive, then local gov has to do something.

BTW, WTF is with btctalk posting? It takes like 2 min for a post (at least the first one) to get through.

[Hueristic]

It's hard to do in areas where things burned down as you can't say: "it will always burn".

Nothing worthy is easy.

But afa burn alot of that is self inflicted from years of stopping natural fires so basically we need to find out how to balance the amounts of material available to the eventual fires.

flooding-I tend to agree, but then we would have much much less space to live.
Somehow, dutch fixed the flooding problem. It's just the matter of proper engineering.
If such endeavor is expensive, then local gov has to do something.

There are far too many resources wasted on fighting a losing battle with rising global water levels.

BTW, WTF is with btctalk posting? It takes like 2 min for a post (at least the first one) to get through.

Yeah, I keep thinking my post isn't going to make it.

[nutildah]

Maybe Craig will just settle for all his patents, whatever nChain is worth when fully dissolved, and a lifetime of employment as butler for the Kleimans. That would be fair.

Fair as long as Craig does not have any abilities to carry out future scams/frauds.

He could still carry out scams in his capacity as butler... Pocketing loose change and such. Assuredly his internet and media access privileges will be revoked as part of the deal.

[d_eddie]

(09:39:29 PM)
via Imgflip Meme Generator

(09:49:01 PM)
all you can eat oysters

My thought exactly!

(First reply, 10 minutes response time. Classic V8.)

[LUCKMCFLY]

A very interesting article about Ransomware, the famous "Ryuk" has caused a lot of profits for hackers, his rise in the Bitcoin era has been huge. The impact has been profound, however this type of news is relevant for highlighting its Bitcoin based rewards.

“Ransomware has helped put bitcoin in the news and we know that the price of bitcoin goes up whenever it is in the news,” stated De Montfort University’s Cartwright  “So, ransomware also partly drives the price of bitcoin.”

Ryuk has hit more than 500 faculties, now security specialists expect many more attacks in 2020.

Source: https://laptopcapri.com/how-ransomware-exploded-in-the-age-of-bitcoin/

[d_eddie]

Hairy takes a pic
half a window enveloped
the bush is burning



Price flat, volume null
he pokes with a stick
but the corn feigns sleep



#haiku

[heslo]

Some shots I took from the plane on my most recent flight a weeks back. 

The white stuff is bushfire smoke.  Its like this for most of the New South Wales coast. 

SA isn't much better at the moment. People not far from where I live evacuated from homes and lost them in fires... sad stuff

[JayJuanGee]

I am curious about this: in a scenario where btc is 100K, how the on-chain fees would look like: $1, $10 or $100? Some are predicting $100.
Presumably, high on-chain fees would move many tx to LN, but i am specifically interested in on-chain fees.
Theoretically, if btc is 100K and you transfer just 0.1BTC, then even $10 fee (which is about 200X current fee) is only 0.1% of the tx value.
Raise the fee to $100 and it is 1% which is getting into vicinity of what we call high fees (like 3% paypal fee or similar credit card fees).

The point I am trying to make is that with $10-100 fees, low value tx (below $1000-10000) would be squeezed and hopefully directed toward LN.
In general, at some point I would suggest to consolidate smaller wallets while the fees are still low. BTW, today 2sats/byte does the job fast, no need to pay higher.

We also know that there is a range, too and there is fluctuation of busy times and less busy times.  Yeah, in late 2017/early 2018 the network was being attacked, and if you wanted transactions to go through right away, you may have needed to spend $20 to $100 in fees during that time.... you could spend a lot lower fees, but it might take a few days.. and you could even spend lower fees and it would have ended up taking a month or two if you were really cheap and you sent low fee transactions (close to free) in the beginning of December 2017(during the worst of the period), those low fee transactions might not have cleared until the end of January.  There were middle ground amounts, too, and there were periods in which it appeared the mempool was clearing up, but the mem pool did not really clear up until the end of January 2018 when the spam attack stopped.

It is not easy to speculate exactly what are going to be the various options available come $100k bitcoins, and if $100k bitcoins are going to be a sustained price at sometime within the next 2-5 years.  But, anyhow, if you want transactions to go through faster, you pay higher fees, and 1% does not seem to be unreasonable for what you are getting, which is way the fuck more than paypal or credit card fees, like you mentioned), depending on what you are trying to accomplish, especially when you have a bank in your pocket and all of that actual meaningful potential power.  On chain and off chain, and options are still going to be something that is hard to speculate about exactly, because some options might become more feasible in the future too, whether lightning network or some other yet unknown option(s).

[HairyMaclairy]

Yeah I hear SA is bad. So many firies hurt down there.   We lost Balmoral overnight.  

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/not-much-left-in-balmoral-after-fires/news-story/5199b18c24a3aa694261e311257cceba

[jojo69]

Fascinating how easily we go from "it's not happening so it doesn't matter" to "it's too late so it doesn't matter".

Eerily similar to how conspiracies are insanely outrageous until suddenly humdrum and un-newsworthy.

Some people seem to be stubbornly determined to avoid their share of responsibility.

[Hueristic]

Watching the first Witcher episode and I'm pretty surprised its damn good.

[HairyMaclairy]

*Now’s not the time to talk about it
*Our focus is on those affected and we do not apologize for that
*Now is not the time to play politics
*We have had plenty of time for discussion and it’s time to move on

[heslo]

Watching the first Witcher episode and I'm pretty surprised its damn good.

Yes I've very much enjoyed it. They got the visuals of the game very close and the world just feels right. Cavill is a great Geralt too!

Yeah I hear SA is bad. So many firies hurt down there.   We lost Balmoral overnight.  

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/not-much-left-in-balmoral-after-fires/news-story/5199b18c24a3aa694261e311257cceba

So sad, it's even worse when lives are lost in the process of fighting the fires!

[VB1001]

I'm sorry you don't like it, but it's the only way to do it, years by number of exchanges and the total of all.
I do not understand your comment.

There are rules for proper data analysis.

How to create a graph chart for "proper" data analysis.

https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&ei=5gv-XZzjFNX0tAa91o-YAQ&q=How+to+create+a+chart+for+%22proper%22+data+graph+analysis.&oq=How+to+create+a+chart+for+%22proper%22+data+graph+analysis.&gs_l=psy-ab.12...140543.144285..146520...0.4..0.113.896.7j3......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71j33i10.VAw2djJvhy0&ved=0ahUKEwic7s2I28bmAhVVOs0KHT3rAxMQ4dUDCAo

The last bar presents the total of all of them, any graph should be carefully observed and read the data, not just looking at the colors.

But if this is the norm (I don't know) when I publish the finished graphic, I will remove the totals bar.

thx

edit:



that's better?

Nice graph.

That being said, I think the number of hacked exchanges per year is not taking into account the increase in number of exchanges. It would seem that security/risks is getting worse, when maybe it is the contrary. I would suggest to compare the figure of "hacked exchanged / total number of exchanges active in that year". That would probably give a better overall view of how security is progressing. And show how in the first years probably there were even more hacks than exchanges active (repeated hacks).

Yes, it would be an interesting fact to consider, but I don't think it is possible to know the number of active exchanges per year.
Logic would be as you say, last years more security, but hackers have also reduced the number of targets for their attacks,
they focus on hacking high volume exchanges and this reduces the amount of exchanges that meet this feature.