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Question: How long until 70K (credit: Heslo)
1 week - 18 (21.7%)
1 month - 53 (63.9%)
1 year - 0 (0%)
the top is in - math and science confirms it - 12 (14.5%)
Total Voters: 83

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25262463 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13 users deleted.)
LUCKMCFLY
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December 11, 2019, 05:32:33 PM
Merited by mindrust (1)

Modeling proposal presented to add S2F to the equation.

Quote
For review. Preliminary proposal to add the derivative of S2F to the equation. Appears to model a bit of the 2013 & 2017 bubble.
@100trillionUSD

Source: https://twitter.com/Geertjancap/status/1204671492069449728


On the other hand..


In BitcoinCharts



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December 11, 2019, 05:34:05 PM

[edited out]


That list could not be complete (which you said).  Missing the largest one (or most scandalous one of 2019), Quadrigacx, no?  And of course there is BTC-e and WEX in 2017/2018.

Edit.  Xhomerx10 beat me, partly.

You can only beat people in riding large texts in this thread.....  Kiss

How cuuuuuuuttttiiiieeeeee!!!!!!!


Team micgoose .... feeling her oats, today.



 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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1/21000000 , the only math you need to know


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December 11, 2019, 05:38:43 PM

I am in computer hell here...fuck
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December 11, 2019, 05:42:50 PM

explain
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December 11, 2019, 05:52:23 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Unexpectedly, despite a ROI 4 times higher than S&P500 since the beginning of the year, the Sharpe ratio of BTC is only a little bit lower than the S&P500 one.
It means BTC isn't disproportionately risky for such a ROI.



Quote
The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk.
Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.​
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp   

What is the source of that investment comparison chart, though?
Skew
https://twitter.com/skewdotcom/status/1204111070840983552

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December 11, 2019, 06:08:38 PM

Good eveing WO!
Observing @ $7,194
This is fine 🙂
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December 11, 2019, 06:15:54 PM

explain


Micro$oft end of support for Win7 eminent.

Handy to have internet in the shop for looking up specs, constants, formulas and whatnot.  No room or patience for 2 machines out there.

Antique CNC controller (Super-Tech EMC-XYZ-BX) has no drivers or config info for Linux, figured this out after 3 different distro installs.

Turns out, Mach3 parallel port driver absolutely will not work in a 64bit environment, figured this out after setting up a salvaged machine with win10 already on it.

Started to re-purpose another older box, kept hanging on install, several hours to track that down to a flaky CPU, have to do a win7 install first because this thing won't boot from USB, finally get that all worked out and...

now having to sidestep Micro$oft account creation and muzzle Cortana and turn off all the spylemetry (that they let you), so far it has been 3 days of walking in place and I don't even know if this is going to driver up its PCI-parallel card and work yet


and being reminded that I have to go through Linux dependency hell on all the rest of the boxen by Jan 14...
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December 11, 2019, 06:23:15 PM

Workbench 1.4 2.0
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December 11, 2019, 06:30:14 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 07:09:55 PM by micgoossens


Quote
For that price, customers do not get the display – which starts at $4,999 – or the $999 stand that holds up that screen.

Mine came out to over $11k :|



Full option 52k or something, would be good for Wall Observer use ..... Roll Eyes


Edit: damn, V8 already pointed that out
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December 11, 2019, 06:32:45 PM


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For that price, customers do not get the display – which starts at $4,999 – or the $999 stand that holds up that screen.

don't forget the wheels for $400, that's a heavy piece of hardware.
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December 11, 2019, 06:34:51 PM

We might need it to parse JJG posts.
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December 11, 2019, 06:44:52 PM



https://economics.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/Faculty/Tsyvinski/cryptoreturns%208-7-2018.pdf

https://twitter.com/GrayscaleInvest/status/1204495755022610435
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December 11, 2019, 06:49:37 PM

^ where 'recent' refers to 16 months ago  Tongue
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December 11, 2019, 06:50:42 PM

Unexpectedly, despite a ROI 4 times higher than S&P500 since the beginning of the year, the Sharpe ratio of BTC is only a little bit lower than the S&P500 one.
It means BTC isn't disproportionately risky for such a ROI.



Quote
The Sharpe ratio was developed by Nobel laureate William F. Sharpe and is used to help investors understand the return of an investment compared to its risk. The ratio is the average return earned in excess of the risk-free rate per unit of volatility or total risk.
Subtracting the risk-free rate from the mean return allows an investor to better isolate the profits associated with risk-taking activities. Generally, the greater the value of the Sharpe ratio, the more attractive the risk-adjusted return.​
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sharperatio.asp   


Risk Free Rate for USD is a joke, isn't it?

Lots of risks holding long that asset being under central dilution powers
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December 11, 2019, 06:51:31 PM


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For that price, customers do not get the display – which starts at $4,999 – or the $999 stand that holds up that screen.

Wow, that's over 7 BTC. Roll Eyes
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December 11, 2019, 06:53:00 PM


We know u can all buy such studies... best industries found guilty are pharma and finance
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December 11, 2019, 07:05:40 PM


I have a bit of a problem with that Yale study (from mid-2018), and its seeming lack of ability to focus itself on bitcoin, and has this strange concept of "cryptocurrency" that dilutes the message of king daddy by the addition of confusing matters such as Ripple and Ethereum to such cryptocurrency conceptualization.

Makes for a weaker study to not just focus on bitcoin, so it seems.

^ where 'recent' refers to 16 months ago  Tongue

That too.
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December 11, 2019, 07:16:33 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 07:52:11 PM by makrospex

explain


Micro$oft end of support for Win7 eminent.

Handy to have internet in the shop for looking up specs, constants, formulas and whatnot.  No room or patience for 2 machines out there.

Antique CNC controller (Super-Tech EMC-XYZ-BX) has no drivers or config info for Linux, figured this out after 3 different distro installs.

Turns out, Mach3 parallel port driver absolutely will not work in a 64bit environment, figured this out after setting up a salvaged machine with win10 already on it.

Started to re-purpose another older box, kept hanging on install, several hours to track that down to a flaky CPU, have to do a win7 install first because this thing won't boot from USB, finally get that all worked out and...

now having to sidestep Micro$oft account creation and muzzle Cortana and turn off all the spylemetry (that they let you), so far it has been 3 days of walking in place and I don't even know if this is going to driver up its PCI-parallel card and work yet


and being reminded that I have to go through Linux dependency hell on all the rest of the boxen by Jan 14...

Ever tried virtualisation?
VMware did a pretty good job at running 32 bit OS like WinXP in a window, while passing through USB hardware from the host OS (win10 64bit).
So if mach3 is running on a decent USB-PPT interface, i'd check that too.
I have run my car's OBD stonage interface via USBCOM serial port-USB bridge controller under such configurations successfully.

Well worth a try, imo. And oracle's virtualbox should do it sufficiently, too (for free).

EDIT: I googled "usb parallel port mach 3" and judging by the first three results it shouldn't be much of a problem to get things running that way.
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December 11, 2019, 07:35:41 PM
Last edit: December 11, 2019, 08:21:54 PM by Arriemoller

[edited out]


That list could not be complete (which you said).  Missing the largest one (or most scandalous one of 2019), Quadrigacx, no?  And of course there is BTC-e and WEX in 2017/2018.

Edit.  Xhomerx10 beat me, partly.

I will gladly beat the parts he missed.

EDIT: gladly
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December 11, 2019, 08:03:12 PM



Ever tried virtualisation?
VMware did a pretty good job at running 32 bit OS like WinXP in a window, while passing through USB hardware from the host OS (win10 64bit).
So if mach3 is running on a decent USB-PPT interface, i'd check that too.
I have run my car's OBD stonage interface via USBCOM serial port-USB bridge controller under such configurations successfully.

Well worth a try, imo. And oracle's virtualbox should do it sufficiently, too (for free).

EDIT: I googled "usb parallel port mach 3" and judging by the first three results it shouldn't be much of a problem to get things running that way.


The problem is latency.

CNC needs really precise timing, like realtime kernel precise, which is why the parallel port is on the PCI bus, USB adapters are a recipe for disaster. 

I know you googled, but those hits are referring to purpose built USB input motion controllers that deal with timing internally.  This thing isn't worth converting to a new motion controller...though somehow it is worth days of my time...
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