Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[zyk]

stamp already needs ages to process withdrawls..their trading machine discovers the Gox -lag...halting

withdrawls under pretext of not having enough KYC ?...haven´t I been through this already???

may I need to tell you that a fractional will be discovered there when price stamps out 400 again ?

but you may enjoy watching fat guys swimming naked by now....must be funnier then observing walls

[JayJuanGee]

Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.

What price are you banking on?  $520-ish?  or some other amount?

  

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently?   And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking?    Anyhow...   So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ...

seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band.  probably be trading that range for a while

I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ...  My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC...   and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications...

[Adrian-x]

  

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently?   And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking?    Anyhow...   So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

he doesn't want to fold, he isn't, he is being controlled by TPTB, they sent silk road layers after him, and his bank (Mizuho Bank) with Gag orders, he is playing for time, still he has no Bitcoins, if TPTB win the coins are lost, or he wins (not a chance i think) he gets his safety deposit box back.  

[JayJuanGee]

  

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently?   And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking?    Anyhow...   So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

he doesn't want to fold, he isn't, he is being controlled by TPTB, they sent silk road layers after him, and his bank (Mizuho Bank) with Gag orders, he is playing for time, still he has no Bitcoins, if TPTB win the coins are lost, or he wins (not a chance i think) he gets his safety deposit box back.  

Do you mean that he is in a similar boat as Charlie Shrem?

[JorgeStolfi]

Checking the Chinese Slumber Method predictions for Feb/28

(You weren't expecting it?  HA!  NOBODY expects the Chinese Slumber Inquisition!)

The chicken got tired it seems:

Prediction posted on: Friday 2014-02-28, 01:37 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-02-28, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3533 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3464 CNY
Error: 69 CNY

Bitstamp's predicted price: 577 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 574 USD
Error: 3 USD

Trade volume V_d for today Feb/28 is already ~118 kBTC, and volume V_h in the official Slumber hour (19:00--19:59) was 546 BTC; so, by the new rule V_h/V_d < 0.005, it is a True Slumber Point, barely.

The price ratio between Huobi and Bitstamp has been close to the usual R = 6.12. Actually, for the last three days it was a bit lower, closer to 6.0.  That's strange since the official exchange rate increased three days ago from 6.09 to 6.14.

The Huobi prediction in question is the rightmost blue rectangle on the chart below.  The light blue-gray rectangles are the previous predictions.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the prediction.


The following chart shows the Bitstamp prices and predictions. The orange and grey dots are Huobi's prices at 19:00 UTC every day, divided by R = 6.12.  The orange line is the trend used in the prediction, which is Huobi's trend divided by R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.12 for all other times).

[zyk]

Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.

What price are you banking on?  $520-ish?  or some other amount?

  

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently?   And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking?    Anyhow...   So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

The ONLY explanation that I can think of is that HE was trying to appear as a GOOD and honest business man... in order that he would inspire investors to have confidence in him and that he was NOT just being a sheister..... ...

seems 530 to 600 is the new vol band.  probably be trading that range for a while

I predict 4-5 days at most in this range... then we are going to bust out... and be in the $750 to $850 range... ...  My prediction is based on pent-up demand for BTC...   and also based on the fact that we have largely found out enough facts about GOX in order to adequately understand the range of ramifications...

No you haven´t....who sold those 750000 BTC at Gox under 300 dollars and to which account were the

money withdrawn.....who was the 10 k wall 3 hours before bitidiot came out ?

Can you even fathom the ramnifications of this selling? Come on ...we are here to speculate!

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Saturday Mar/01

The price at the official Slumber hour today (Feb/28 19:00--19:59) was 3464 CNY.  The new data point leads to a slight revision of the last segment of the new trendline.  The average of the True Slumber Points since the Second Karpeles Catastrophe of Feb/20 (namely, Feb/21, 23--25, and 28) is now 3522 CNY instead of 3533. Thus,

Prediction valid for: Saturday 2014-03-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3522 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 575 USD.

The prediction is the blue rectangle at right in the chart below.  The orange and grey dots are the True and False Slumber Points, and the orange line is the new trendline.


For Bitstamp, as usual, I used Huobi's prediction divided by R = 6.12.

NOTE: An advantage of a flat prediction is that is irritates the bulls and the bears, equally.

[MickeyT2008]

If MtGox has had all these bitcoins missing for years then I suppose it's possible that Karpeles borrowed them to spend on himself or MtGox itself when they were worth less than a dollar, but with the price shooting up x1000 over the following years repaying them would have been an impossible task.

[HairyMaclairy]

NOTE: An advantage of a flat prediction is that is irritates the bulls and the bears, equally.

No one can complain they have been unfairly treated then.

[Adrian-x]

  

Frrom Bitcoinbuilder FAQ

As it got bigger though, I decided the only use I should have is to convert all the "real" BTC fees I earn into GOXBTC. The reasoning behind this is two-fold.. 1. I do think gox will be fine and it's a good investment, but also 2. if somehow they're not, I want to be in the same (sinking) boat with everybody else.

That is FUCKED up... he had NO hedging... apparently?   And, his business plan seem a bit, lacking?    Anyhow...   So how can you keep such a business going in the event that GOX is truly and totally insolvent in terms of the reimbursement of the investors' BTCs?

This doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Why would he want to go down with the ship when he was offering a fair service? He was giving people the opportunity to buy/sell the risk of Gox imploding where both sides knew what they were getting into.

Wants to show a loss for tax purposes maybe?

he doesn't want to fold, he isn't, he is being controlled by TPTB, they sent silk road layers after him, and his bank (Mizuho Bank) with Gag orders, he is playing for time, still he has no Bitcoins, if TPTB win the coins are lost, or he wins (not a chance i think) he gets his safety deposit box back.  

Do you mean that he is in a similar boat as Charlie Shrem?

way more screwed

[zyk]

NOTE: An advantage of a flat prediction is that is irritates the bulls and the bears, equally.

No one can complain they have been unfairly treated then.

No ..really fair...and the hodlers eat all the risk to have money or btc at the exchanges...so GTFO

[JorgeStolfi]

http://www.theverge.com/2014/2/28/5453596/voynich-manuscript-decrypting-the-most-mysterious-book-in-the-world

^ might be of interest to Jorge.

Thanks.  (Someone else just sent it too.)  I will check.

But it seems that he deciphered all of TEN words.  Well, this guy got several dozen:
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/voynich/04-05-20-manchu-theo/
http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/voynich/04-05-20-manchu-theo/f1r-reading.html
But Zbigniew apparently had no academic connection and therefore no University Press Office...

Also, how can we interpret this as bullish for bitcoin?

Absolutely.   

[Solarstorm75]

NOTE: An advantage of a flat prediction is that is irritates the bulls and the bears, equally.

Academic interest in bitcoin only. Not owner, not trader, rather skeptical of its longterm success.

This is the problem in the predictions. If you are/were not invested into BTC, you cannot take the emotions of market into account.

Market is completely emotion driven especially in those times, so I don't buy any of your screens.

For your start:
http://www.elwave.com/support/faq/principle/index.html

[seleme]

Well, it better go down now. I've turned to fiat almost all I could.

What price are you banking on?  $520-ish?  or some other amount?

I'm not sure to be honest.

[derpinheimer]

3k in bids added.

2k 533
1k 532

[dreamspark]

8000 BTC bids between $530 and $535

[seleme]

yep, bid side doesn't look so good now  

someone wants to push it up.

[JorgeStolfi]

so I don't buy any of your screens.

They are not for sale.  

[Richy_T]

Am i really the only one who is concerned that Bitcoin hasn't responded to ANY good news in MONTHS?
People dump every single time there is some bad news. Often it isn't even bad news but more like "i'm gonna panic sell in case it us bad news". We go lower and lower. Now we're at 570. There will be good news. Nobody will give a shit. They're all waiting for the next bad news so we can go lower again.
We would need to most amazing super positive news ever to stop this and i don't see this coming.

So give me one reason why we could go up again. I can't find any. I really can't.

Edit: how much longer will we be going down because of Gox. They are gone. Will it take us down for months to come? Can't people just get over it?

Maybe someone has been quietly liquidating 750k coins

[hdbuck]

I think it is ludicrous to argue with that nym.  No one could be so stupid/ignorant as to honestly hold such positions, and still manage to post here.  Much much better to ignore.

Yet it would have been civilized and polite to tell me exactly in what i was lying or being stupid/ignorant about.
so GFY