Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

^^

I keep reading about Golden Crosses over the past year or two. I’m sure there’s been 2 or 3 & fuck all happened after them.

Would love to see the price start to move up soon, I’m really getting bored atm.

[1714909087]

1714909087

[Biodom]

In 2021, #Bitcoin  will be 12.5 years old and has risen from $0.0025 to over $9000.

In 2021, Fiat (eg. GBP, USD) will celebrate 50 years of replacing gold as the world's dominant money—only 4X longer than the age of BTC!—and has devalued 95% due to inflation.

Do the math.

https://twitter.com/obi/status/1281145849326829570?s=21

OK, but why he is talking about btc and $ (fiat) in 2021?

Inflation calculator shows that dollar is worth about 16% and not 5% from 1971.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Could it drop to 5% in one year-possible, but unlikely.
I get the thesis, though, but numbers are wrong (for now).

[JayJuanGee]

I admit that I'm no armchair psychologist, but I am not sure whether you are in a good place, bob.

Shut the fuck up, you little wordy bitch.

Ok.  I will not try. 

I'm fine. Just grumpy as all heck lately, for, reasons.

Just recently, I had several things go against me at once, and kind of create a bit of a negative cascade.  Nonetheless, seems to me that there are quite a few people going through something like this in a lot of places in the world, and even worse in some locations, probably.

One thing that you and I have in common in terms of finances is a decent bitcoin hedge, so even though we have quite a bit going against us sometimes, it is likely worse for quite a few people who do not have a bitcoin hedge. 

Sure, some of people might have things that you and I do not have (and yeah youth is one of those things), and maybe some of that is somewhat out of our control, too, but I continue to conjecture that it remains much better to at least have some decent financial hedging - and of course, if we are having health issues because the passage of time is likely only causing those issues to get worse, to the extent that we cannot control or minimize the negative impact of all of the things, and we might be concerned that we cannot really enjoy the financial hedging.. and I only know so much about your own circumstances.  So, if grumpy works for you, let it be so.

**

**Even though I am enjoying my day, so far.   

[JayJuanGee]

For historical purposes only: #bitcoin  is at the same price level as 27 Nov 2017 .. it took 20 DAYS to go to $19K

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1281146795956088832?s=21

PlanB my brother

Seems that the earlier stages of an exponential period tend towards gradualness in the beginning until gaining some steam.. so sure, there might be some mini-blow off tops before reaching the GRAND FINALE blow-off-top, so I am thinking that a mini-bllow-off-top is likely to bring us above our ATH any time soon.. and I am thinking that there could be a couple of mini-blow-off-tops before going over the ATH.. and then we kind of start a new phase of UPpity at that point.

But what do I know?

It is not like bitcoin follows any kind of exact pattern, and even if any of us comes up with a kind of tentative idea about how it might play out, a few little glitches could throw a decently-sized monkey wrench into our previous way of thinking about the playing out of the upward momentum matter.

[BlackHatCoiner]

Bitcoin be like:

[OutOfMemory]

just watching lately
writing this meaningless post
as a sign of life

#busyRLhaiku
#hodl
#lightenTFupBawb

 

EDIT:

Life is what you see in it

(c) by someone else

[bitebits]

We currently have the "Golden Cross" on a 2-day chart (MA50 crosses with 200), which has only happened 3 times so far and has always been a sign to a massive bull run.

But I just keep thinking, that if you throw a coin three times and you have an eagle, it is mathematically very doubtful that you would also throw it fourth time in a row.
[...]

Nice graphs. Bitcoin is fortunately not a coin flip (and each time you throw a coin it is 50% head or tale).

[sirazimuth]

....
But I just keep thinking, that if you throw a coin three times and you have an eagle, it is mathematically very doubtful that you would also throw it fourth time in a row.

Fun fact....
For a coin with an eagle on one side,
 even in the very unlikely event you throw an eagle 50 times in a row, (or any number ftm) odds are still exactly the same for an eagle on the 51st throw(50%)*

 *as long as it's not a trick coin.... (also highly unlikely if 50 eagles came up in a row)

[JayJuanGee]

The volume on that red dildo was almost the same as the green one we had yesterday.
A single entity?

Personally, I find single entity theories to be quite lame (including willybot), especially given bitcoin's overall size, currently, but there is also a certain amount of understandability that more than 60% of BTC do not tend to move at all on a regular basis, so in that regard, BTC's price is being determined by a quite lower number of coins that are in a position to be traded (of course assuming that fractional reserve practices have not totally fucked any semblance of exchange volume credibility).

[JayJuanGee]

In 2021, #Bitcoin  will be 12.5 years old and has risen from $0.0025 to over $9000.

In 2021, Fiat (eg. GBP, USD) will celebrate 50 years of replacing gold as the world's dominant money—only 4X longer than the age of BTC!—and has devalued 95% due to inflation.

Do the math.

https://twitter.com/obi/status/1281145849326829570?s=21

OK, but why he is talking about btc and $ (fiat) in 2021?

Inflation calculator shows that dollar is worth about 16% and not 5% from 1971.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Could it drop to 5% in one year-possible, but unlikely.
I get the thesis, though, but numbers are wrong (for now).

He is speaking from the future.

So, he can use whatever numbers that he wants, and if you do not happen to have a time machine, you cannot question those numbers....

Either get a grip, or get a time machine, Biodom.   

[Wilhelm]

In 2021, #Bitcoin  will be 12.5 years old and has risen from $0.0025 to over $9000.

In 2021, Fiat (eg. GBP, USD) will celebrate 50 years of replacing gold as the world's dominant money—only 4X longer than the age of BTC!—and has devalued 95% due to inflation.

Do the math.

https://twitter.com/obi/status/1281145849326829570?s=21

So at the same growth rate in 2033 it will be $32.4B per BTC....

That works for me

(This is insanely stupid, linear unicorn math)

[El duderino_]

This boy is about to dive into a wel earned

#HODLsleep

[El duderino_]

In 2021, #Bitcoin  will be 12.5 years old and has risen from $0.0025 to over $9000.

In 2021, Fiat (eg. GBP, USD) will celebrate 50 years of replacing gold as the world's dominant money—only 4X longer than the age of BTC!—and has devalued 95% due to inflation.

Do the math.

https://twitter.com/obi/status/1281145849326829570?s=21

OK, but why he is talking about btc and $ (fiat) in 2021?

Inflation calculator shows that dollar is worth about 16% and not 5% from 1971.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Could it drop to 5% in one year-possible, but unlikely.
I get the thesis, though, but numbers are wrong (for now).

He is speaking from the future.

So, he can use whatever numbers that he wants, and if you do not happen to have a time machine, you cannot question those numbers....

Either get a grip, or get a time machine, Biodom.   

An honest word from me about that post....

I only did inhale the hopium out of it 

[aesma]

We currently have the "Golden Cross" on a 2-day chart (MA50 crosses with 200), which has only happened 3 times so far and has always been a sign to a massive bull run.

But I just keep thinking, that if you throw a coin three times and you got the head, it is mathematically very doubtful that you would also throw it for the fourth time in a row.


https://bitcoinist.com/this-historically-accurate-bitcoin-bullish-indicator-flashes-again/

Additionally, we have just broken strong support that has shaped and maintained BTC's upward trend in the past few months, which may indicate a strong correction that is currently ahead of us.
Tough times for traders coming.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y0gQSFIa90g&t=1440s

I haven't seen so many contradictory signals in BTC for a long time 

The last line of defense is actual support at 8600$ (green arrow at the screen above), once broken there will be no doubt we are going down.

I hope something totally opposite happens, fingers crossed.

My buy orders are ready.

My sell orders are also ready.

My non trading stash is hodling.

[strawbs]

More stock market correlation today. Only a little blip. But when will we finally decouple?    C'mon corn, you're better than this....

[strawbs]

So, if grumpy works for you, let it be so.

Starting to experience COVID19 fatigue. We are being utterly barraged with bad information from all sides, and it's difficult to stay on top of everything, trying to filter out the noise. How many times have they flip-flopped on efficacy of HCQ for treatment, now ?!??

Also, really pissed off at all the BLM shit going on. If it were up to me, I would declare them a terrorist organization, right next to Anfita. The statues being defaced and torn down aggravates the patriot in me to a bitter extreme.

Bitcoin languishing in its current trading range for so long is also a little bit frustrating. Was hoping for more excitement post halvening, and it came and went with practically no fan-fare, as far as effect on pricing.

To your point about our HODLings, I really have no right to complain about anything financial related. It's just other shit going on in the world right now that is causing me some existential angst.

I think picking up nihilism has been a net-negative for me, but it's giving me an interesting perspective on the futility of everything.

Trying to make peace with that.

I found that the best thing to draw from nihilism is that, if life has no intrinsic purpose or meaning, then that gives us a great opportunity of being able to choose what meaning to give to it. And that can be entirely your choice. So if you can choose, it makes sense to fill it with a huge helping of love instead of fear. It seems that every decision we make is based in either love or fear, so just try to choose the former as often as you can remember to.

And if that's a big crock of shit, well at least you'll spend your life spreading more love than hate, which can't be a bad thing.

#nohomo

[lightfoot]

Starting to experience COVID19 fatigue. We are being utterly barraged with bad information from all sides, and it's difficult to stay on top of everything, trying to filter out the noise. How many times have they flip-flopped on efficacy of HCQ for treatment, now ?!??

Also, really pissed off at all the BLM shit going on. If it were up to me, I would declare them a terrorist organization, right next to Anfita. The statues being defaced and torn down aggravates the patriot in me to a bitter extreme.

Bitcoin languishing in its current trading range for so long is also a little bit frustrating. Was hoping for more excitement post halvening, and it came and went with practically no fan-fare, as far as effect on pricing.

To your point about our HODLings, I really have no right to complain about anything financial related. It's just other shit going on in the world right now that is causing me some existential angst.

I think picking up nihilism has been a net-negative for me, but it's giving me an interesting perspective on the futility of everything.

Trying to make peace with that.

Antifa is a terrorist organization? Hm. I haven't seen them running cars into protesters or killing people as of late. BLM is getting odd, but they haven't yet started taking over Federal land and threatening to shoot FBI agents outside.

As for destroying statues... That's about as old as time itself. Check with the ancient Egyptians on that one. Ultimately they are political items, rallying points, and yeah they take political abuse. Boo hoo.

Really: Please don't let the other shit get personal to you and grind your gears: That's what *they* want: To make you choose sides and support *their* agenda. Don't fall for it when the stakes are pointless. Take the steps needed to protect *you* and the ones you love first, then if you have leftover energy go on a crusade.

And be glad you have bitcoin: Because bitcoin gives you the CHOICE to get involved or sit shit out. Lot of people work minimum wage slave jobs and have to suck up to their masters, do what they say, and deal with it. We don't have that problem, and it's something to be grateful for.

*hugs* (because you're homo, so it's ok)

[JayJuanGee]

So, if grumpy works for you, let it be so.

Bitcoin languishing in its current trading range for so long is also a little bit frustrating. Was hoping for more excitement post halvening, and it came and went with practically no fan-fare, as far as effect on pricing.

It would really be difficult to expect any kind of immediate effect from this most recent halvening.  In respect to hash power, we did get a bit of what seemed to have been a mining front-running that caused hashpower to go up prior to the halvening, and then a few adjustments on the hashing power downward that still ended up largely continuing to show upward movement in the hashing power over the past 6 months, even though there was a downward hashpower blip there right after the halvening.... so in that sense, bitcoin seems to be working as it was intended to work, and no real hashpower issues presented themselves through this most recent halvening... .so really, that kind of non-issue in regards to mining and mining incentives should be bullish as fuck.

Another thing is that a decent amount of time could pass before the reduction of the new bitcoin supply is really felt (going from 12.5 to 6.25), and even in 2016, it took several months for the upwards BTC price pressures to increasingly be felt - and even with that, we cannot know if this time had a bit more of the havening event already priced in or NOT so we cannot be sure if the up (presuming that it comes) is going to play out similarly as last time around (don't get me wrong, I am NOT much of a "priced-in" theory advocate, but I am just trying to say that we really don't know the pattern of how the price plays out this post halvening as compared with last time).

In other words, we are barely touching upon two months post halvening, and sure we might be largely flat in terms of the BTC price right around the time of the halvening as compared with now - even though there was a decent amount of both up and down BTC price movement within the week before the actual halvening.

Call me a party poop, but I am not even going to be upset if BTC price ends up still being in the sub $10k arena a couple of years from now.  I am just not trying to create expectations that are too great for myself (and something like BTC that is largely outside of my control), even though I still believe that there are pretty decent odds that some kind of upwards exponential BTC price growth is going to happen within the next two years, and probably even less than that, without really knowing for sure and not really even causing myself to get depressed if we were still somewhere between $5k and $9k two years from now, even though there are good odds of higher BTC prices than that... especially given all of the circumstances and the seeming fundamentals.. and I am going to say the same thing to someone just getting into bitcoin about halving a long timeline in terms of expectations.. and don't expect too much from bitcoin in the shorter time frames... because having too high of expectations remains a set-up for psychological disappointment....

Sure any BTC accumulator and HODLer and even newbie into bitcoin might be pleasantly surprised by upwards BTC price movements in the short term, but the surprise remains far from guaranteed... so also in accordance with that kind of mindset, I am quite grateful for already being into considerable profits with my BTC, which would also be true if bitcoin were within a $5k to $9k price range, now or in two years or even longer from now...

Yes.. maybe sounds too bearish.. but, even DCA'ing into bitcoin and marginal performance of the bitcoin asset into the near-term future seems to have great odds of out performing all other investments, even though such projected likely superior BTC price performance remains in the mix while at the same time, far from guaranteed (holding two conflicting ideas in my head at the same time...  go figure? hahahahaha).

Edit:  A couple hours after this above original post, I added a few more words to this post.. hopefully, to attempt to make the substantive aspect flow better, rather than changing any of the actual substance.. even though longer to read and I maybe might be not sorry about that.

[Toxic2040]

[Syke]

The statues being defaced and torn down aggravates the patriot in me to a bitter extreme.

You have a problem with tearing down statues of Confederate traitors?