Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Phil_S]

Fucking Krugman...

[JayJuanGee]

BBC tells staff not to wear Black Lives Matter badges on air....

....... Fuck BLM.

Soros can choke on my giant black cock.



....... go fuck yourself, JJG. For no reason in particular.

Sucks to be me.    

https://twitter.com/cryptobull/status/1278595607603687424?s=21

#Hopium

We need only $790 ish pump everyday for next 30 days, so easy peasy...

2016 (Halving): $660
2016 (EOY): $1000
2017 (Q4): ATH

2020 (Halving): $8500
2020 (EOY): $13,000 <-- Predicted
2021 (Q4): $30,000 <-- Predicted

I find the above SOMA predictions quite conservative.

Bear  

Yeah, it is... Doing a direct up-scaling from the 2016 halving, we get this:

2016 (Halving): $660
2016 (EOY): $1000
2017 (Q4): $20,000 (ATH)

2020 (Halving): $8500
2020 (EOY): $13,000 <-- Direct up-scaling
2021 (Q4): $260,000 <-- Direct up-scaling

Better?

I just don't believe 2017's ATH mega-pump can happen so fast this time...

I'm quite happy with the green prices. Slow 'n' steady.

Direct seems to be too overly optimistic, as you held back in your first extrapolation.

We probably agree that direct or even more than direct is still possible, but it seems too pie in the sky to expect the same level.. when historically the exponential amounts have been coming down, somewhat with each cycle.. .. not impossible, just seems a bit more realistic to scale downwardly a bit, like you did.. and maybe somewhere sub $100k would feel a bit more comfortable, even though that is far from guaranteed, too.

Another thing that could happen is that you are correct about the degree of the exponential being the same, but it takes a bit longer to play out.. maybe even a year or two longer, just to fuck with us HODLers.. and to see if more weak hands might be shakeable, along the way UPpity.

[JayJuanGee]

Let it be a sweet bear trap :-)

Rocket to $25,000 by September?

3.5x in three months would kind of resemble April 1 to June 25, 2019, so it would not be impossible, even though it would be quite a surprise, and a bit out of character considering the macro-situation.. but since when has bitcoin (or s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe/networking principles) given many fucks about considering the macro-situation?

So I am not sure exactly from where a fair calculation might be started... I mean what would be the bouncing off base... let's take a range for the bouncing off base to calculate the 3.5X exponential, short-term  yolo . fuck the bears scenario.

So let's give it a week or two before starting (even though it could start over the weekend of the 4th, too)... but anyhow, I am going to use $8,500 to $9,500 as the base launch range, so a more or less reasonable bear trap fake out of 3.5x would give us anywhere between $29,750 and $33,250.

With that kind of scenario, I would liken it to a double top 2013 in the making.. because it would be too soon of a run up, but it would not necessarily be unreasonable to have a second larger run up 6-12 months afterwards to top off the end of year 2021 with a nice additional present of another 3x to 5x follow-through blow-off top... which would give us an estimated blow off top range of somewhere between $89,250 and $166,250.. completely reasonable, if not even a bit too conservative given the totality of our current market situation.

You heard it here first, even though I am just taking some modified version of fractal thinking and even plan b stock to flow extrapolation to blend in with such s-curve exponential adoption thinkening.

[rhomelmabini]

This is a hideous greeting.
Actually there's a post above this, just highlight or even quote it.

https://twitter.com/Cryptanzee/status/1277163427643850752

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting. My needs are the opposite (need to be able to spend my BTC) but this is a good way for people to onboard to LN with ease. Maybe their debit card could allow for that.

The Lightning Network has been a huge disappointment for me. Largely for technical reasons. Spent about a year back when it launched, running a top node, and it's a complete administrative nightmare handling channel balancing. It's ultimately what made me see it as the current critical flaw in The Lightning Network, and withdraw my funding and resources.

I have not been impressed with the loop in/out options that have been presented as solutions so far.

Liquid does not interest me at all, either. Gives me bad Ethereum vibes in a peculiar way.

Lightning and liquid are optional second layer solutions that may or may not work out too well.

It is good that we have people working on them and also figuring out ways to figure out if they can enhance bitcoin's transactional capacities...   If they fail, then there will likely be other projects that try to improve upon them or to improve bitcoin's transactional capacities and fees.

In the mean time, we have bitcoin itself... Does bitcoin itself excite you, or do you have problems with that, too?

[Biodom]

Bitcoin got so flat lately that even a posted 'period' excites more.

Temporarily, I hope

[JayJuanGee]

Oh there you are jojo, I was beginning to worry....
(very informative post btw, ty)

Yeah, jo with another jo has a way of really boiling down the pure essence of what he is saying.  

It's moving (and inspiring, I must reluctantly admit).  

He could probably knock out a fly with his breath.. or just by thinking about breathing.    

[El duderino_]

Flat line bitcoin price.
Price appreciation #SOON...
Inexorable!!!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Flat line bitcoin price.
Price appreciation #SOON...
Inexorable!!!

Just reading an article suggesting we should be at $12,000 right now, that it’s a fair price. Article says we should break upwards soon as the BTC 90-Day active supply has soared to pre-2017 bull run levels.

I’m itching for a fresh HOPIUM injection so hope the above plays out.

[dragonvslinux]

 

If there's already been bear traps, and it looks like another bear trap, it's probably a bear trap. Followed by a nasty bull trap:

[LFC_Bitcoin]

[CryptoYar]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bitcoinagile/status/1279030677300817920

[goldkingcoiner]

How are we supposed to trust the TA of people who don't even explain their TA with "animal does stereotypically animal thing"?

[El duderino_]

Though.... very wrong....

Moon emo
Pump emo
Rekt emo
HODLer emo
Strong hands emo
Weak hands emo
Whale emo
Bear emo
Honey badger emo

.......
Etc........

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $9,098

It was hard to watch to concede 4 goals but we are the season winner!

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Though.... very wrong....

Moon emo
Pump emo
Rekt emo
HODLer emo
Strong hands emo
Weak hands emo
Whale emo
Bear emo
Honey badger emo

.......
Etc........

You missed:

Dildo
Butt
Tits 😜

[Xian01]

In the mean time, we have bitcoin itself... Does bitcoin itself excite you, or do you have problems with that, too?

Bitcoin has been the second most exciting thing in my life, second only to the career path I chose. I used to run a public node, but it was eating too much into my bandwidth and ruining my gaming experience, even with QoS rules at the firewall. There was a time I was on the cusp of formally filing a legal case against Butterfly Labs, but had to make the difficult personal decision not to proceed, due to being in the sensitive process of a job change. Didn't want to draw any legal attention to myself during that period.

Got in early enough that I had the ability to retire, selling some batches during the runup to $20,000. Have been lurking off and on, and seems there are others here that are in similar situations. Getting in early enough with Bitcoin to live la vida loca. Reading about Elwars escapades with Seasteading has been inspiring. Not sure what I would do if I had his level of holdings. It's a bit difficult for me to see where Bitcoin goes from here. I see numbers of valuations over $100,000 USD per BTC and it twists my brain up a little bit trying to think about the implications.

Wonder what that Josh Zerlan guy is up to. Did he cash out his BTC bags buying his house at the time ? Lost track of things after their bankruptcy.

[DaRude]

Interesting. My needs are the opposite (need to be able to spend my BTC) but this is a good way for people to onboard to LN with ease. Maybe their debit card could allow for that.

The Lightning Network has been a huge disappointment for me. Largely for technical reasons. Spent about a year back when it launched, running a top node, and it's a complete administrative nightmare handling channel balancing. It's ultimately what made me see it as the current critical flaw in The Lightning Network, and withdraw my funding and resources.

I have not been impressed with the loop in/out options that have been presented as solutions so far.

Liquid does not interest me at all, either. Gives me bad Ethereum vibes in a peculiar way.

Currently US has PayPal bucks, Venmo bux, CashApp bux, zelle bux, EveryOtherPaltform bux etc... All of those balances are stuck inside their platform's walled gardens, now, what if those companies just had some sort of instant, almost free, magical lightning fast settling channel between them? Like when people "buy" BTC IOU in their respective apps, on top of seeing a BTC balance and getting exposure to BTC fluctuation they could also get an option to instantly transfer their "BTC" IOU between different apps/platforms.

Can i Venmo you the rent, umm i only got cashapp can you do that? Ahh it doesn't matter just send me the balance in BTC IOU here's the QR

All those apps can KYC/AML their customers before they'll set up a channel between each other. Then grandma can go, look sonny i'm using them bitcoins. At this stage that'd be the best use case, can be implemented yesterday, and masses would benefit from BTC as the underlying settlement channel

[Torque]

OT: So anyone wanna bet on how long until #MaxwellDidntKillHerself becomes the next meme?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ghislaine-maxwell-knows-everything-and-will-be-naming-names-former-epstein-associate-says

[VB1001]

Cryptocurrency Payment Processor BitPay Finally Announces Support for SegWit
https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/cryptocurrency-payment-processor-bitpay-finally-announces-support-for-segwit/


Bitcoin Educator Antonopoulos Takes a Jibe At Bitpay’s SegWit Adoption
https://coingape.com/no-thank-you-says-andreas/