Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

To do a regression on bitcoin's long term trend, get rid of the manic price actions (the stuff in blue). Do a regression on the red data. You get the yellow line. Its equation is price = 10^(.09242*sqrt(d)-1.5011) where d is the days elapsed since September 11, 2010



 I project a brief top between $150k and $200k around late 2021, followed by a grinding bear market reverting eventually to the base trend.

Well, there are 4128 days between September 11 2010 and December 30 2021.
Putting this into formula gives the price of $27342 , nowhere close to 150-200K
Details:
sqrt of 4128 is about 64.25, multiplication by 0.09242 gives about 5.938, which after subtracting 1.5011 results in 4.43684, which is your exponent.
10^4.43684 is 27342

maybe, adjust the number you are subtracting?
Or, your order of operations is written incorrectly (multiplication precedes addition or subtraction)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_operations

[1713865897]

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[cmacwuz]

To do a regression on bitcoin's long term trend, get rid of the manic price actions (the stuff in blue). Do a regression on the red data. You get the yellow line. Its equation is price = 10^(.09242*sqrt(d)-1.5011) where d is the days elapsed since September 11, 2010



 I project a brief top between $150k and $200k around late 2021, followed by a grinding bear market reverting eventually to the base trend.

Well, there are 4128 days between September 11 2010 and December 30 2021.
Putting this into formula gives the price of $27342 , nowhere close to 150-200K
Details:
sqrt of 4128 is about 64.25, multiplication by 0.09242 gives about 5.938, which after subtracting 1.5011 results in 4.43684, which is your exponent.
10^4.43684 is 27342

maybe, adjust the number you are subtracting?
Or, your order of operations is written incorrectly (multiplication precedes addition or subtraction)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_operations

I'm guessing that formula is a quantitative projection of the baseline, and the blowoff top number given (150k) is more of heuristic estimation according to historic baseline-peak ratios

[Searing]

To do a regression on bitcoin's long term trend, get rid of the manic price actions (the stuff in blue). Do a regression on the red data. You get the yellow line. Its equation is price = 10^(.09242*sqrt(d)-1.5011) where d is the days elapsed since September 11, 2010



 I project a brief top between $150k and $200k around late 2021, followed by a grinding bear market reverting eventually to the base trend.

Well, there are 4128 days between September 11 2010 and December 30 2021.
Putting this into formula gives the price of $27342 , nowhere close to 150-200K
Details:
sqrt of 4128 is about 64.25, multiplication by 0.09242 gives about 5.938, which after subtracting 1.5011 results in 4.43684, which is your exponent.
10^4.43684 is 27342

maybe, adjust the number you are subtracting?
Or, your order of operations is written incorrectly (multiplication precedes addition or subtraction)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_of_operations

I'm guessing that formula is a quantitative projection of the baseline, and the blowoff top number given (150k) is more of heuristic estimation according to historic baseline-peak ratios

You had me at 'guessing' ...sometimes I think I'd be better off just flipping a coin..that way at least I could blame 'chance' on the timing...

now back to our regularly scheduled confusion.

[JayJuanGee]

What would the price be as we return to the base trend, post top?

Lemme see, bottom around March 2023, that's 12.5 years or 4565 days.
Maybe $50k market bottom early 2023.

That's assuming corn keeps loving the square root of time.  The yellow line, going out, looks kind of steep to me.
At some point the market's going to saturation regime, even if it's just incipient (in the coming years); sooner or later the curve will begin transitioning to what looks more like the logistic.

That $50k contains a little dose of hopium.

It continues to be a bit difficult to imagine bitcoin's market share (or whatever you want to call it) as being anywhere near to "saturated" when bitcoin only has about less than a 1% world adoption.  

Sure, of course, there are pockets of higher levels of bitcoin adoption, especially amongst the more technological and financially educated, but jeez, even a lot of smart financial people are failing/refusing to even take a small share of 1% or so in bitcoin, when maybe in the 1% to 10% arena would be more than prudent for anyone who gets some grasps upon what bitcoin is.

So, could we even be close to bitcoin saturation when NOT too many people even know what the fuck bitcoin is, even people who kind of know bitcoin don't really even seem to know what it is (and fail to invest anything), and I am including bitcoin HODLers in that group, too.  

Many of us HODLers don't really even seem to know what we are HODLing because we don't exactly know how bitcoin is going to develop in any kind of meaningful or specific way - even though the longer term HODLers and the more or less tiny increasing minority studying the bitcoin/sound money space do have some better speculation ideas about where bitcoin might go or how it might end up being used or even the power of holding your own keys - while being scary at the same time.  Of course, increasing of user-friendliness and even seeing or experiencing use cases can surely affect our thinkenings about bitcoin.. and bring more adoption and bring movements in the direction of saturation.

Can you recognize that I have psychological difficulties (call me bitcoinpsycho.... oh no, that name is already taken) accepting anything close to assuming, presuming or measuring mature market theories, when it comes to assessing where we are at in bitcoin?

Top to bottom it's usually about 80 - 85%.

Was.  Peaks follow the square root trend too (it's simply time-shifted).  The math implies declining volatility.
I have posted charts in the past to illustrate the declining volatility over time.  If anybody's interested they're available by clicking on my profile.

Just provide some links, kellrobinson... it is way easier to be sure that we know to which previous posts you are referring.

[JayJuanGee]

For some strange reason, people just don't seem to like me, so they tend to devolve into delusionalening about what day of the week it is

Just too many words...
Or too many syllables
Such as in this case.

You don't need to cram
In nearly as many words.
Sometimes less is more.

Not for this cat.

https://twitter.com/whale_alert/status/1282339451268734980?s=21

PUMP EET

I am wondering if there be a little bit of a battle to figure out whether our current week's candle is going to close green or red, even though I am not sure about how much the color matters.

So, as I type, we have about 4 hours remaining in this week's candle, and it would have to close somewhat below $9,100 in order to turn red... so currently we are green at about $9,220 as I type, but certainly within striking distance of less than 1.5% of closing red.

[jbreher]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?      He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.   

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

[cAPSLOCK]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?      He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.   

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

As far as nodes are concerned the story is way different.

BSV count: 326
BTC count: 7721

California ON IT'S own has nearly as many BTC nodes as the entire world for BSV.

I have seen analysis that shows that the vast majority run on Digital Ocean VPS instances.

https://api.blockchair.com

[jbreher]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?    He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.    

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

As far as nodes are concerned the story is way different.

BSV count: 326
BTC count: 7721

California ON IT'S own has nearly as many BTC nodes as the entire world for BSV.

I have seen analysis that shows that the vast majority run on Digital Ocean VPS instances.

https://api.blockchair.com

As long as there are no structural barriers preventing parties from booting up a fully validating client, it is exactly as decentralized on that axis as it need be.

[JayJuanGee]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?    He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.    

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

As far as nodes are concerned the story is way different.

BSV count: 326
BTC count: 7721

California ON IT'S own has nearly as many BTC nodes as the entire world for BSV.

I have seen analysis that shows that the vast majority run on Digital Ocean VPS instances.

https://api.blockchair.com

You seemed to have answered my question, cAPSLOCK, which is are those BSV nodes even real or distinct or just making an appearance of having actual real nodes?

As long as there are no structural barriers preventing parties from booting up a fully validating client, it is exactly as decentralized on that axis as it need be.

As usual, you are totally correct, jbreher.

Something like 10 fully-validating nodes would be superfluously more than enough, for example.      Very difficult to collude when you have 3 fully-validating nodes and opportunities to open more which would likely scare the shit out of the 3 from colluding.   So, 10 fully-validating nodes is like redundancy and 3x more than a kind of minimum operating core.

[JayJuanGee]

I am wondering if there be a little bit of a battle to figure out whether our current week's candle is going to close green or red, even though I am not sure about how much the color matters.

So, as I type, we have about 4 hours remaining in this week's candle, and it would have to close somewhat below $9,100 in order to turn red... so currently we are green at about $9,220 as I type, but certainly within striking distance of less than 1.5% of closing red.

We seem to be moving farther away from a weekly red candle close.    Bitcoin sucks!!!!!    always going UPpity!!!!!  

 

Edit:  Confirmed.... Green!!!!!   Closed at about $9,290.  Now onto next week's candle, will we close red or green? whachagonnado?

[Elwar]

So I have tried a few times to download the Coinbase app needed to sign up for the Coinbase debit card. Each time I get "This is not supported in your country".

I use a VPN to set my IP in the US so is it not supported in the US? Or is it somehow detecting that I'm really in Panama?

Also, I finally got around to filing my extortion papers for the IRS.

Getting married helped keep me from needing to pay any taxes.

Land of the free...where you have to file your taxes even if you haven't stepped foot in the country all year.

[DaRude]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?    He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.    

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

Kraken and Gemini

Why do BSvers always try to redefine the definition of decentralization? Are there no arguments you can come up with that don't require redefining meaning of words?

[Hueristic]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?      He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.   

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

So I have tried a few times to download the Coinbase app needed to sign up for the Coinbase debit card. Each time I get "This is not supported in your country".

I use a VPN to set my IP in the US so is it not supported in the US? Or is it somehow detecting that I'm really in Panama?

Also, I finally got around to filing my extortion papers for the IRS.

Getting married helped keep me from needing to pay any taxes.

Land of the free...where you have to file your taxes even if you haven't stepped foot in the country all year.

BREAKING: Coinbase is selling blockchain analytics software to the US Secret Service

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/71261/coinbase-is-selling-blockchain-analytics-software-to-the-us-secret-service

[Biodom]

Anecdotal in Texas: almost nobody in a restaurant on Sunday-relative told me.
With $600 proviso running of by the end of the month, all those resto workers who actually came back would have almost no income.
Interesting. I wonder how an "invisible hand" (Adam Smith) would deal with this.
Oh, I know...they should buy something, maybe dog-e-coin or TSLA stock.

Just for laughs ("OK boomer" style: I don't mean to offend anyone, but it is funny):
https://youtu.be/CKs4StkM64w?t=995

[JayJuanGee]

So I have tried a few times to download the Coinbase app needed to sign up for the Coinbase debit card. Each time I get "This is not supported in your country".

I use a VPN to set my IP in the US so is it not supported in the US? Or is it somehow detecting that I'm really in Panama?

Also, I finally got around to filing my extortion papers for the IRS.

Getting married helped keep me from needing to pay any taxes.

Land of the free...where you have to file your taxes even if you haven't stepped foot in the country all year.

You could renounce your citizenship, but you may well be anticipating getting some income such as social security or maybe you are receiving some other pension, which makes it a BIGGER trade off to renounce.

I am not saying that I agree with world-wide income taxation, and surely there are trade-offs with any system whether we are referring to taxation or other matters of figuring out if you get benefits or will get benefits in the future.   Sure, you likely subscribe to one of those libertarian views, and you have already admitted to it, and sure I have issues with libertarians trying to spin matters with out accounting for how to deal with various public goods, but you surely did not start your propounding of libertarian ideas in your teenage years, so you have some issues with your having had made too many USA connections in terms of either prior employment or your desires to return to the USA or to travel around the world with a USA passport causing you to be unwilling to renounce your citizenship.. because it will likely cost you more than what you are willing to admit to because you want to spin the taxation matter in one direction (sure we all have concerns about taxation how their spent and from whom they are collected).

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?    He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.    

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

Kraken and Gemini

Why do BSvers always try to redefine the definition of decentralization? Are there no arguments you can come up with that don't require redefining meaning of words?

There is no coin that even comes close to the same level of BTC's decentralization.. that's probably why most of the shitcoin pumpeners resort to making shit up.

[DaRude]

So I have tried a few times to download the Coinbase app needed to sign up for the Coinbase debit card. Each time I get "This is not supported in your country".

I use a VPN to set my IP in the US so is it not supported in the US? Or is it somehow detecting that I'm really in Panama?

Also, I finally got around to filing my extortion papers for the IRS.

Getting married helped keep me from needing to pay any taxes.

Land of the free...where you have to file your taxes even if you haven't stepped foot in the country all year.

Did you give it permission to access your location? Or might've gotten blacklisted first time app called home without VPN. But seriously go with Gemini or anything would be better than Coinbase

[Hyperjacked]

Gotta say... Joey your starting to get annoying with this qe bs... reminds me of your forever silver shorts!!!
The day of reckoning will come... nothing will stop the
Train

[jbreher]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?    He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.    

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

Kraken and Gemini

In what manner are Kraken or Gemini more decentralized than Coinbase?

Why do BSvers always try to redefine the definition of decentralization? Are there no arguments you can come up with that don't require redefining meaning of words?

What the fuck are you babbling about now? As you seem to be accusing me of redefining 'decentralization', perhaps you might be so kind as to provide me with your personal definition thereof.

[jbreher]

jbreher likes to pump them up too, I wonder why that is?      He might want to chime his picnic bear ass into the mix, as well.   

He tends to support centralization and trusted third partys for some unknown reason.
Makes me wonder sometimes why he supports bitcoin?

Examples would be helpful in buttressing your claim.

You support Coinbase and BSV, do I really need to add anything more than that?

Yes, you do. Coinbase as opposed to what? Binance? BitFinex?

BSV as opposed to what? BTC? From a fundamental analysis they are exactly as centralized as each other.

So I have tried a few times to download the Coinbase app needed to sign up for the Coinbase debit card. Each time I get "This is not supported in your country".

I use a VPN to set my IP in the US so is it not supported in the US? Or is it somehow detecting that I'm really in Panama?

Also, I finally got around to filing my extortion papers for the IRS.

Getting married helped keep me from needing to pay any taxes.

Land of the free...where you have to file your taxes even if you haven't stepped foot in the country all year.

BREAKING: Coinbase is selling blockchain analytics software to the US Secret Service

https://www.theblockcrypto.com/post/71261/coinbase-is-selling-blockchain-analytics-software-to-the-us-secret-service

Is that meant to buttress your accusation of not being decentralized? Or trusted third parties? Newsflash: exchanges are inherently centralized trusted third parties. They can be nothing but. Impossibru!

[jbreher]

Gotta say... Joey your starting to get annoying with this qe bs...

Thant reminds me... I was cleaning accumulated detritus out of a rental storage unit I'm vacating after several decades of use. I ran across these old bookshelf stereo speakers, and did a little double take.