Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoins' "The DIP" song:

"I am coming down, coming down like a monkey, but it's alright"
" 'cause tonight tonight tonight...oh oh"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yv-4HbikXdE

EDIT: did I say "f-k DCA"..yes, I did. Sorry, that move is for "lhoo-zarrrs".

Seems as if you may have said fuck DCA, once or twice, perhaps?  Hard to keep track...

That could, perhaps, be part of the explanation for why you have been so ongoingly and seem increasingly bitter in recent times....  smartie pants...

Just think about those prudent peeps who had been DCA'ing into bitcoin since late 2017... They'd be in a pretty decent position right about now in terms of the value of their BTC portfolio in comparison to what they had put in.., wouldn't they?  They would be something close to 2.5x in profits, currently. Should not complain about that.

And, look at ur lil selfie.. you been in BTC for 7 years-ish (according to your forum registration).  You would be in pretty damned good shape right now too, if you had been following a DCA plan into BTC since the time of your forum registration.  You could be something like 21x profits by following a pure DCA plan.

There are not too many people who are able to beat the performance of a DCA plan, at least not in BTC... So I don't know why you are so down on DCA plans.  It could be that you do not even understand what the fuck DCA is - especially in respect to BTC.  Perhaps?  Perhaps?  

Seems pretty obvious that you did NOT follow such a DCA plan for the duration that you have known about BTC because there should not be anyone who would be 21x-ish in profits currently, that would be so bitter about the plan that brought them to 21x-ish in profits.  

By the way, my ballparking of my own BTC holdings is probably around 17x profits rather than 21x.. so my own portfolio is underperforming DCA, too.. even though part of my issue does have some hacking losses, a few interpersonal transaction losses and exchange exit scam issues, too... so there are those issues with my own BTC portfolio value performance.

WTF...? I just switched from the 15k temp thingy to my old hat, FFS.

I am pretty damned-sure that Homer had already made you a supra $15k hat, d_eddie.

Did you miss his post(s) on the topic?  Here's a post from Homer on the topic from a few weeks ago.

I have a hunch that before year's end I'm gonna be able to change my hat. It's getting stuffy

 Why wait until the new year?

Am I missing something?

Me my mom and grandma all just bought $50 in BTC each on cashapp

Did you write it on their butts?  just for funzies.

 

[Phil_S]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

[JayJuanGee]

I don't think a lot of people are intentionally using DCA. It's just that their regular pay comes every 2 weeks, or twice a month, and setting aside a fixed amount just to invest is very similar to DCA, but they buy the whole thing on schedule without emotion. As much as they can afford anyway.

So it looks like DCA, but probably not really DCA by choice but by circumstance. Otherwise, they'd probably buy as much coin as they can on the dips. (or whenever they buy.)

Yes... exactly.

And, hopefully these normie peeps do not overdo their DCA either.

Not overdoing it is a part of budgeting that can take a while to learn for a lot of normies.. it takes practice to manage without gambling too much in various regards and to thereafter be able to put aside some cash for investing.

So, if they get paid weekly or bi-weekly or monthly, many times budgets are figured out on monthly bases because several bills will renew on monthly basis.  So, if they end up having $2k in income, and $1,600 in various expenses, then they may well only have $400 available for possible investing or savings.  And maybe they should only invest half of that into BTC and keep half in cash.  there are going to be variations regarding how much money people can accumulate, and if they adequately plan for emergency expenses and then end up having to dig into their savings.  If they manage well then anything that they invest into the BTC portion would not be something that they would have to dig into, ever, except for on their completely own timeline and choosing (and maybe even preplanned way of doing it).

New theory..

They put the dip during thanksgiving dinner to keep the normies from buying it..

Have you been reading too much torque?

"They;" yeah right.   

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

I can live with a BTC/USD gain of 100% per year:

Year        BTC/USD
-------------------
2020   $     17,000
2021   $     34,000
2022   $     68,000
2023   $    136,000 <--- My "moon" level.
2024   $    272,000
2025   $    544,000 <--- My "fuck-you rich" level.
2026   $  1,088,000
2027   $  2,176,000
2028   $  4,352,000
2029   $  8,704,000
2030   $ 17,408,000
2031   $ 34,816,000
2032   $ 69,632,000
2033   $139,264,000 <--- My prediction of 1 cup of coffee = 1 sat comes true!

[Karartma1]

AlcoHoDL maybe the only problem with your model is that we don't know what the real value of USD would be, meaning that your model can be revised on the way up even more.
 

[AlcoHoDL]

AlcoHoDL maybe the only problem with your model is that we don't know what the real value of USD would be, meaning that your model can be revised on the way up even more.

Very true! Thanks for pointing it out...

[El duderino_]

It’s all about the ladies.....

Them bears are trying to get to them I guess

[BlackHatCoiner]

 

[JayJuanGee]

WTF...? I just switched from the 15k temp thingy to my old hat, FFS.

d_eddie, how is your trading working?

He don't do dat no moar...

I hate to talk for d_eddie...

not

[ edited out]

Happy Thankgiving, ya cunt.

Aren't you a happy camper.

Happy thanksgiving to you too, you non-cunt wannabe.  

Jay, consider this to be my lil contribution to the quality of debate on the Wall.   

Fair enough... I doubt that my difference of opinion with lambie hones in on substantive matters, even though from time to time, in our back and forth, we do end up touching upon some substantive matters.   Every once in a blue moon, he makes a good point or two.. so there is that concession from me.  I must be feeling charitable, today for some reason.  Could have been the eggnog for thanksgiving..instead of christmas?

[OutOfMemory]

In other news: Austrian Fucking gets renamed to Fugging!

Last call to go there and make that precious selfie with the village sign.

In that regard i can recommend the comedy movie "Bad Fucking" (kinda hard to find via google, but why oh why?    )
It's in german.  ...wait, some austrian accent, you can compare it with what scottish is like to english.

German speakers (and listeners), enjoy 

[Wekkel]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal 

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

Yes.. I have noticed some of this kind of talk, but I doubt that anyone really believes that 2x per year would be sustainable for long term planning - even though i recall that you have been presenting such a chart for quite a while now.

Furthermore, even though I also heard Saylor say something like 100% per year, that does not really seem to be his more solid investment thesis which largely had honed in upon his expectation that the dollar is losing value and that the actual current practices will likely continue to sustain loss in dollar value.. so BTC becomes more solid - even if it might not end up appreciating 100% per year relative to the dollar or other possible investments.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

I can live with a BTC/USD gain of 100% per year:

Year        BTC/USD
-------------------
2020   $     17,000
2021   $     34,000
2022   $     68,000
2023   $    136,000 <--- My "moon" level.
2024   $    272,000
2025   $    544,000 <--- My "fuck-you rich" level.
2026   $  1,088,000
2027   $  2,176,000
2028   $  4,352,000
2029   $  8,704,000
2030   $ 17,408,000
2031   $ 34,816,000
2032   $ 69,632,000
2033   $139,264,000 <--- My prediction of 1 cup of coffee = 1 sat comes true!

How about we start more conservatively with the beginning of the year 208-week moving average, which would have been about $5k

-------------------
2020   $     5,000
2021   $     10,000
2022   $     20,000
2023   $     40,000
2024   $     80,000
2025   $     160,000
2026   $     320,000
2027   $     640,000
2028   $     1,280,000
2029   $     2,560,000
2030   $     5,120,000
2031   $     10,240,000
2032   $     20,480,000
2033   $     40,960,000

Still seems like a bit too much (too bullish) for my thinking, and even not quite sustainable, even in that period of time.  And, I am not saying that either scenario is not possible, but a more conservative version seems a bit more plausible.. even though even that more conservative version seems a bit of a stretch.

I would prefer either having a smaller base or having a curve that is reducing each year instead of expecting a doubling every year, the percentage would slope down - which seems more realistic and sustainable for a longer term.

[AlcoHoDL]

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

Yes.. I have noticed some of this kind of talk, but I doubt that anyone really believes that 2x per year would be sustainable for long term planning - even though i recall that you have been presenting such a chart for quite a while now.

Furthermore, even though I also heard Saylor say something like 100% per year, that does not really seem to be his more solid investment thesis which largely had honed in upon his expectation that the dollar is losing value and that the actual current practices will likely continue to sustain loss in dollar value.. so BTC becomes more solid - even if it might not end up appreciating 100% per year relative to the dollar or other possible investments.

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmemehub/status/1331741230905118732?s=21

That was a good shortie-but-sweetie (only 5 minutes) interview with Michael Saylor, and he continues to be quite a good spokesperson on the bitcoin investment thesis [...]

Looks like '2x per year' idea is now mainstream... I noticed they both of them described the long term trend of BTC as 100% per year...

I can live with a BTC/USD gain of 100% per year:

Year        BTC/USD
-------------------
2020   $     17,000
2021   $     34,000
2022   $     68,000
2023   $    136,000 <--- My "moon" level.
2024   $    272,000
2025   $    544,000 <--- My "fuck-you rich" level.
2026   $  1,088,000
2027   $  2,176,000
2028   $  4,352,000
2029   $  8,704,000
2030   $ 17,408,000
2031   $ 34,816,000
2032   $ 69,632,000
2033   $139,264,000 <--- My prediction of 1 cup of coffee = 1 sat comes true!

How about we start more conservatively with the beginning of the year 208-week moving average, which would have been about $5k

-------------------
2020   $     5,000
2021   $     10,000
2022   $     20,000
2023   $     40,000
2024   $     80,000
2025   $     160,000
2026   $     320,000
2027   $     640,000
2028   $     1,280,000
2029   $     2,560,000
2030   $     5,120,000
2031   $     10,240,000
2032   $     20,480,000
2033   $     40,960,000

Still seems like a bit too much (too bullish) for my thinking, and even not quite sustainable, even in that period of time.  And, I am not saying that either scenario is not possible, but a more conservative version seems a bit more plausible.. even though even that more conservative version seems a bit of a stretch.

Not bad, either. Your table is just lagging 2 years behind mine. Which is fine, and more realistic. Either one of the two tables is fine by me, and both are SUPER BULLISH. Seems too good to be true, but you never know...

[Wexlike]

Bought the dip, armageddon ahead.

[Gyrsur]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

please pic or it didn't happen.  

maybe we have reached a new well balanced accumulation zone?

take a look at the chart and imagine if this is just the beginning like it was in the past.



EDIT: from TA point of view it's a Double Top but from fundamental point of view the crowd is tricked into something.  

[nullius]

[ edited out]

Happy Thankgiving, ya cunt.

Aren't you a happy camper.

Happy thanksgiving to you too, you non-cunt wannabe.  

Hey!  According to Bitcointalk Suchmoon’s Vision (BSV), I, nullius, am the forum’s official cunt!

There is a whole thread accusing me of being a cunt in the topic title—from someone who claims to have me on ignore.  
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5293050.0
My reply, with admission of figurative cuntiness:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5293050.msg55693619#msg55693619
Credit:  My attempt to talk to CH follows a certain non-meanie example that I had seen in giving a fair shake to the bonesjones alt.

Thus Jay, although you may still compete with me in WO for being a meanie, my lil selfie has you beat for being a cunt.  Lambie, take notice.  

I must be feeling charitable, today for some reason.

Wow, I have a lock on being the Wall’s #0 meanie, too.  

[Wekkel]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

please pic or it didn't happen.  

It’s difficult with the forum software from a phone. Especially an iPhone where the user is considered a total idiot ...

But here it is: https://ibb.co/MB2x2L8

[Gyrsur]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal  

please pic or it didn't happen.  

But here it is: https://ibb.co/MB2x2L8

thanks, man!

It’s difficult with the forum software from a phone. Especially an iPhone where the user is considered a total idiot ...

you should ask theymos regarding the new forum software. OOH NOO, better you forget it!  

I think it won't be a bad idea if someone creates a website with epochtalk and implement scrap the data that's given on bitcointalk. I.E. Bitcointalk with current posts, etc but on epochtalk (with epochtalk design) but with disabled login function. I think it won't be a bad idea cause as it seems we don't have access to beta.bitcointalk.org and won't even have in a near future (was there anything said about that by theymos?). At some point, some people may visit new beta and it will help us to get used to epochtalk version of bitcointalk

[El duderino_]

Attempt ad 2nd bottom on the 4hr. Not out of the woods yet and it can sure still go to $15,xxx the next few weeks, but it’s an encouraging signal 

So actually you are saying it could go to 15xxx but it could also go UP ....

So eeeuhm it’s down or up iyo?

Thx 





Btw ... 16,*777* isn’t that bullish in some kind of a way??

Lucky numbers and sh*t

I’m believing more in such things as I do in TA   

[seek3r]