Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitChick]

Much exciting, so action

This is the "Stability" everyone says Bitcoin doesn't have.

It will probably only last a day or two more though.

[dnaleor]

http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

I think bitcoin may drop to $566 before trending back up. Lyth0s March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

hey, I made a similar chart a few days ago. :-)

I am using the gox data until bitcoinaverage was tracking the data.



Now looking for additional historical data (I need it for my thesis)

[surfer43]

http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

I think bitcoin may drop to $566 before trending back up. Lyth0s March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

hey, I made a similar chart a few days ago. :-)

I am using the gox data until bitcoinaverage was tracking the data.



Now looking for additional historical data (I need it for my thesis)

[dnaleor]

Much exciting, so action

This is the "Stability" everyone says Bitcoin doesn't have.

It will probably only last a day or two more though.

I am seriously wondering how small the margin trading will end up in the one minute chart. At the moment it is just over 1.9 USD (0.3%)

LOL. I can not even remember that happening in the summer of 2013

[JayJuanGee]

http://www.geekcipher.com/technology/bitcoin-price-prediction-march-2014-through-july-2014/

I think bitcoin may drop to $566 before trending back up. Lyth0s March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

hey, I made a similar chart a few days ago. :-)

I am using the gox data until bitcoinaverage was tracking the data.



Now looking for additional historical data (I need it for my thesis)

Yeah... these straight lines of predictive pricing make very little sense to me.

[lyth0s]

I think bitcoin may drop to $566 before trending back up. Lyth0s March through July 2014 bitcoin prediction here.

Yeah... these straight lines of predictive pricing make very little sense to me.

The line is technically only straight on Log plots, its a exponential formula that appears straight when the y-axis is log. I personally don't ignore any relationship that has an R squared of >0.9 . Can it be wrong? Sure. Does the trend show a close relationship of the two variables, you bet.


edit: accidentally wrote "logarithmic", now fixed

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

             !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/09 !  03/10 !  03/11 !  03/12 !  03/13 !  03/14 !  03/15 ! 03/16 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |   9.12 |  13.40 |   9.17 |  12.70 |   6.73 |   8.68 |   2.20 |  3.30 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |   6.52 |   7.16 |   5.09 |   7.96 |   7.43 |   3.76 |   2.55 |  2.62 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  BitFinEx   |   8.29 |  11.60 |   3.63 |   7.29 |   3.31 |   5.53 |   1.74 |  1.90 | USD                 
  Kraken     |   0.64 |   0.57 |   0.45 |   0.56 |   0.40 |   0.48 |   0.34 |  0.15 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.20 |   0.39 |   0.41 |   0.37 |   0.35 |   0.20 |   0.12 |  0.12 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.15 |   0.13 |   0.18 |   0.13 |   0.13 |   0.11 |   0.06 |  0.06 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.02 |   0.05 |   0.06 |   0.04 |   0.03 |   0.06 |   0.03 |  0.02 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  24.94 |  33.30 |  18.99 |  29.05 |  18.38 |  18.82 |   7.04 |  8.17 |                     

  OKCoin     | 136.24 | 119.00 |  68.50 |  90.60 |  60.70 |  97.80 |  55.40 | 40.00 | CNY                 
  Huobi      | 103.51 |  95.10 |  55.00 |  77.90 |  65.40 |  78.40 |  36.50 | 27.00 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   4.24 |   3.34 |   3.11 |   3.16 |   2.89 |   2.97 |   1.13 |  1.51 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.21 |   0.27 |   0.34 |   0.49 |   0.26 |   0.19 |   0.35 |  0.28 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 244.20 | 217.71 | 126.95 | 172.15 | 129.25 | 179.36 |  93.38 | 68.79 |                     

  TOTAL      | 269.14 | 251.01 | 145.94 | 201.20 | 147.63 | 198.18 | 100.42 | 76.96 |                     

All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[jl2012]

The line is technically only straight on Log plots, its a exponential formula that appears straight when the y-axis is log. I personally don't ignore any relationship that has an R squared of >0.9 . Can it be wrong? Sure. Does the trend show a close relationship of the two variables, you bet.


edit: accidentally wrote "logarithmic", now fixed

Using all data since the inception of MtGox gives and Rsq of 0.879, still very impressing:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg5739610#msg5739610

[aminorex]

The line is technically only straight on Log plots, its a exponential formula that appears straight when the y-axis is log. I personally don't ignore any relationship that has an R squared of >0.9 . Can it be wrong? Sure. Does the trend show a close relationship of the two variables, you bet.


edit: accidentally wrote "logarithmic", now fixed

Using all data since the inception of MtGox gives and Rsq of 0.879, still very impressing:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg5739610#msg5739610

I like the wallets squared model better.  It actually explains something.  You do know that an exp(exp(t)) model actually fits better, with higher R^2, right?

[jl2012]

The line is technically only straight on Log plots, its a exponential formula that appears straight when the y-axis is log. I personally don't ignore any relationship that has an R squared of >0.9 . Can it be wrong? Sure. Does the trend show a close relationship of the two variables, you bet.


edit: accidentally wrote "logarithmic", now fixed

Using all data since the inception of MtGox gives and Rsq of 0.879, still very impressing:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=470453.msg5739610#msg5739610

I like the wallets squared model better.  It actually explains something.  You do know that an exp(exp(t)) model actually fits better, with higher R^2, right?

exp(exp(t)) is arbitrary because there is no absolute zero for the t.

the wallet (do you mean unique addresses?) number is confounding with t, so we need to do a multiple regression

[JorgeStolfi]

Total  trade volume for today (Sun Mar/16 00:00--23:59 UTC), on the exchanges that I monitor, was only ~77 kBTC.  That is 23% less than yesterday's (~100 kBTC) and 71% less than last Sunday's Mar/09 (269).

In fact the daily volume has not been this low since the Chinese New Year week (Jan/31--Feb/05, 54--77 kBTC) and Jan/23 (66 kBTC).

Trade volume outside China actually increased 16% (from 7.04 to 8.17 kBTC).  Bitstamp (3.30 kBTC) recovered its lead, with BTC-e (2.62) second and Bitfinex (1.90) third.  Bitfinex changed its fee structure today, ostensibly to improve liquidity, but it did not help much yet: its volume increased only 9% since yesterday, less than the other two.

Trade volume in  China dropped 23% (from 93 to 69 kBTC). OKCoin slightly increased its lead over Huobi (58% and 39% of China's volume, respectively).

China's slice of total volume dropped from 93% to 89%

[aminorex]

exp(exp(t)) is arbitrary because there is no absolute zero for the t.

Why do you care?  Fitting a curve is calibration to empirical data.

the wallet (do you mean unique addresses?) number is confounding with t, so we need to do a multiple regression

I mean the price regresses well to a power of a moving average of the number of unique active addresses per day.

I think gbianchi was the originator of that model.  It follows well from Metcalfe's law.  Such a model does not depend on t.

[JorgeStolfi]

A red cape post (just to irritate the bulls  ):



(WorldCom is the third-largest bankruptcy in US history, after Lehmann Bros and Washingtom Mutual https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MCI_Inc.#Bankruptcy)

[aminorex]

A red cape post (just to irritate the bulls  ):
...
(WorldCom is the third-largest bankruptcy in US history, after Lehmann Bros and Washingtom Mutual https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MCI_Inc.#Bankruptcy)

Indeed you might post any of thousands of stocks which went to zero.  How about posting all the fiat currencies which have gone to zero?  I actually think you're making a bullish case here.

[ShroomsKit]

Who thinks the situation in Ukraine will spark something in the bitcoin price?

Do you think the Ukranians have the infrastructure to use bitcoin in times of war? I dont, I dont think it will be useful in war. However, there may be a few millionaires/billionaires in Ukraine or Russia that want to protect/hedge their fortunes. but why haven't they already done so?

Because it only has gone down over the last few months. That in combination with nothing but scams, hackers and crooks and no sane, rich person would put his money in Bitcoin. Not exactly rocket science.

[Threebits]

Is it my impression, or has there been a general clamp-down on discussion and analysis of the MtGOX heist and its leaked database? 

It's just your impression and, more generally, the impression of Bitcoin bears.

People who have a predisposed opinion that Bitcoin is a bound-to-fail concept thought that the failure of Mt.Gox was proof that they were right. They assumed that Bitcoin would have gone to zero by now and that we would all be constantly talking about it.

People who are optimistic about Bitcoin's future don't find the Mt.Gox drama that interesting.

As the bitcoin bulls say, MtGOX is MtGOX, and bitcoin is bitcoin.  The coin will succeed or fail no matter what the bears think.

But the fact that the "bitcoin community" does not want to know what happened inside MtGOX, to me, means that the MtGOX scam was not confined to Karpeles and the hypothetical hacker.  Shouldn't investors be interested to know whether other prominent bitcoin businessmen are involved?

I would NOT let what some bitcoin users say signify the whole of the bitcoin community.  Surely, there is NO consensus concerning the impact of Gox and the extent to which the GOX findings are going to continue to influence bitcoin beyond GOX... surely some bitcoiners are wishing that GOX would go away... but so what?    There are going to continue to be aspect s of the Gox matter that will ripple into the bitcoin space b/c of the extent of it and b/c the story is still lacking in clarity... and accordingly evolving. 

NONETHELESS, I have the sense that a lot of the major and uncertainty aspects of the GOX situation is contained, and the worst of the GOX situation has already been absorbed into bitcoin prices.... and maybe that is why we are getting stagnation and seemingly slow upward movement rather than getting an upward spike in BTC prices.

and the worst of the GOX situation has already been absorbed into bitcoin prices..

 I wonder what fresh whales would consider.  Would they jump in? They might think, where is the
transparency, where is security, and where is secrecy?

Interestingly, a bitcoin activist claimed he had big bitcoins trapped in mtgox, but the hacked documents proved he had little balance, showing he lied, and furthermore,  he also had lied that he had only stocked and never sold.

Seems to me, the worst of the GOX situation might have already been absorbed into bitcoin prices, but we are far from an uptrend. Behind, the fundamental problems in transparency, security, etc are still out there.

[QuestionAuthority]

Who thinks the situation in Ukraine will spark something in the bitcoin price?

Do you think the Ukranians have the infrastructure to use bitcoin in times of war? I dont, I dont think it will be useful in war. However, there may be a few millionaires/billionaires in Ukraine or Russia that want to protect/hedge their fortunes. but why haven't they already done so?

Because it only has gone down over the last few months. That in combination with nothing but scams, hackers and crooks and no sane, rich person would put his money in Bitcoin. Not exactly rocket science.

Nailed it!

[surfer43]

Oh noes! Bitcoin has plummeted to 632! 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

Who thinks the situation in Ukraine will spark something in the bitcoin price?

Do you think the Ukranians have the infrastructure to use bitcoin in times of war? I dont, I dont think it will be useful in war. However, there may be a few millionaires/billionaires in Ukraine or Russia that want to protect/hedge their fortunes. but why haven't they already done so?

Because it only has gone down over the last few months. That in combination with nothing but scams, hackers and crooks and no sane, rich person would put his money in Bitcoin. Not exactly rocket science.

Nailed it!

A sane rich guy would put his money in whatever asset was resistant to seizure if seizure was his primary concern.