Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education...  to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.

You do appear to have a first grader's understanding of the topic at hand. Government robbers are a subset of the larger class of robbers, which includes private sector robbers.
Grizzly bears and dogs are both mammals. The State and bandits are both robbers. They are different, but not in the ways that qualify them as mammals and robbers respectively.

So, why don't you answer the question then?  Are you going to leave your 1 year old with a dog or with a grizzly bear for safe keeping?

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[fcmatt]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?

In Feb the new market participants absorbed the bulk of profit taking / panic selling, now they are fighting over random 200BTC scraps that come along while trying not to push price to high just yet, because cheep coin accumulation.

Why would someone buy 2K+ of bitcoin in one bite at this time unless they wanted to influence this tiny market? Surely they could spend 2-3 minutes a day buying 100-200 btc increments and save a nice percentage because their average cost could possibly be under 625-630?

[JorgeStolfi]

The only substantial thing left is speculation.  I wonder how many people are involved in that.  My guess is less than 10,000, which would be less than 0.001% of the population...

Wow, that's a lot of upside!  I had thought I was bullish!

I cannot tell whether you are being sarcastic. 

Some time ago, Huobi's CEO claimed to have 10,000 active clients.  Discounting for hype and adding OKCoin and the others, 10,000 active traders in China seems to be a very generous upper bound.  (Of course it can be much less.)

I would be surprised if there are more than 10,000 active traders in all the exchanges outside China.  Is there a reliable estimate somewhere?

[adamstgBit]

Is now one of those moments i will be kicking myself later if i dont buy?

I doubt it. Seems like big buys are moving the market up. not very organic growth. the buyers probably want to see if they can get the lemmings to join in then hammer it down come friday/sat. rinse repeat.

So it's either a low volume melt-up or big buys that aren't organic. What would qualify as a bullish signal to you?

In Feb the new market participants absorbed the bulk of profit taking / panic selling, now they are fighting over random 200BTC scraps that come along while trying not to push price to high just yet, because cheep coin accumulation.

Why would someone buy 2K+ of bitcoin in one bite at this time unless they wanted to influence this tiny market? Surely they could spend 2-3 minutes a day buying 100-200 btc increments and save a nice percentage because their average cost could possibly be under 625-630?

because billion > million

[Walsoraj]

I'll say it again, and probably every day until Adam agrees, we will remain in hibernation until total bid sum begins to steadily increase.

[podyx]

well gentlemen

im pretty sure the 2-3 incoming months is gonna contain some interesting days

i'm afraid that all we can do is to strap in and wait. this could be the big one

[billyjoeallen]

If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education...  to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.

You do appear to have a first grader's understanding of the topic at hand. Government robbers are a subset of the larger class of robbers, which includes private sector robbers.
Grizzly bears and dogs are both mammals. The State and bandits are both robbers. They are different, but not in the ways that qualify them as mammals and robbers respectively.

So, why don't you answer the question then?  Are you going to leave your 1 year old with a dog or with a grizzly bear for safe keeping?

Neither, obviously. Robbers are to be avoided, whatever their other characteristics.

[I_bitcoin]

 
In Feb the new market participants absorbed the bulk of profit taking / panic selling, now they are fighting over random 200BTC scraps that come along while trying not to push price to high just yet, because cheep coin accumulation.

Can you show us on the coin cheepness [sic] indicator chart? perhaps with a train and a dinosaur. That would make my night 

[aminorex]

that's a powerful lot of cheep-ness.  i may need to wash out my eyes.

[KeyserSoze]

Love those regulations?
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/11/autos/tesla-new-jersey-ban/

[Davyd05]

well, I don't know about you guys and girls but it seems to be good times

[podyx]

well, I don't know about you guys and girls but it seems to be good times

I believe we all are young lucky, soon to be wealthy, gentlemen

[billyjoeallen]

Love those regulations?
http://money.cnn.com/2014/03/11/autos/tesla-new-jersey-ban/

This is the first time I've wanted to buy a Tesla. New Jersey seems to be dead set on remaining a joke.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Wednesday Mar/12

Prediction valid for: Wednesday 2014-03-12, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3788 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 631 USD.

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The current prediction is the rightmost magenta square.  The blue squares are the last bullish and bearish predictions (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Glyptodon if the hourly volume V_h for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V_d 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is an Albertosaurus otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the Glyptodon Points. The orange line is the trend that was assumed for the above prediction. The Helix pomatia is a graphical indication of market sentiment as deduced from the contents of this thread.

By the arbitrary criterion I have been using, today was defintely a Glyptodon (V_h/V_d = 195/55000 = 0.00354 < 0.005) and therefore a valid data point.  The trend that included it and seemed most plausible was a shifted exponential p(d) = A+B*Q**(d-4), where d is the day of the month, fitted to the five Glyptodons Mar/04--06,09,11.  It seemed reasonable to exclude the Glyptodon of Mar/08, since its V_h/V_d (4.27) was near the threshold and it seemed to lie outside any trend.  The ratio Q was set to 0.700, giving A = 3772.33, B = 268.94).

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The dots, dinosaurs, mammals, lines, and magenta squares are Huobi's Slumber Points, dinosaurs, mammals, trends, and new predictions, scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 since Mar/04, and 6.12 for all other dates).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Tuesday 2014-03-11, 01:31 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Tuesday 2014-03-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3802 CNY
Huobi's predicted price for bulls: 4073 CNY
Error: 271 CNY (~45 USD)
Huobi's predicted price for bears: 3597 CNY
Errors: 205 CNY (~34 USD)

Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 623 USD
Bitstamp's predicted price for bulls: 679 USD
Error: 56 USD
Bitstamp's predicted price for bears: 600 USD
Error: 23 USD

NOTE: Huobi's CEO denied allegations of fake trade volume, but said nothing about fake Glyptodons.

[JorgeStolfi]

There are about 4000 users currently logged onto BTCe -- I've seen it as low as a couple of thousand around this time last year and as high as 12K last November.  You could make a rough guess (of an exchanges no. of users) based on these figures and taking into account an exchange's volume in relation to either the current or median figure.  Add them up (I know you love these tasks Jorge ) and you may have a very rough number.  I'd imagine its more than 10K though.

Thanks!

Would those logged-in users have any other reason to log in, other than trading?

Assuming that  are all traders,  BTC-e's volume today was 5.09 kBTC, and the total outside China was 19 kBTC.  If proportion holds, today there were about 16,000 traders loged in outside China.

That ignores possible overlap (users who trade in two or more platforms), which should not be terribly significant.

Today's volume was very low (1/4 of last Tuesday, for eample).  Is the volume low because there are fewer traders logged in, or because the same traders generate less volume?

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/04 !  03/05 !  03/06 !  03/07 !  03/08 !  03/09 !  03/10 !  03/11 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  28.03 |  12.72 |  10.40 |  21.45 |   9.70 |   9.12 |  13.40 |   9.17 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |  25.03 |   8.38 |   7.06 |  17.23 |  10.97 |   8.29 |  11.60 |   3.63 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |  28.83 |  11.19 |   5.69 |  13.54 |   8.71 |   6.52 |   7.16 |   5.09 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Kraken     |   1.81 |   0.87 |   0.71 |   1.20 |   0.55 |   0.64 |   0.57 |   0.45 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   1.02 |   0.40 |   0.34 |   0.38 |   0.31 |   0.20 |   0.39 |   0.41 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.33 |   0.22 |   0.22 |   0.24 |   0.12 |   0.15 |   0.13 |   0.18 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.14 |   0.04 |   0.03 |   0.07 |   0.03 |   0.02 |   0.05 |   0.06 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  85.19 |  33.82 |  24.45 |  54.11 |  30.39 |  24.94 |  33.30 |  18.99 |                     

  OKCoin     | 137.35 | 286.05 | 139.37 | 109.70 | 146.46 | 136.24 | 119.00 |  68.50 | CNY                 
  Huobi      | 268.47 | 196.00 |  92.40 |  96.37 | 119.46 | 103.51 |  95.10 |  55.00 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |  15.36 |   8.04 |   5.58 |   4.87 |   5.08 |   4.24 |   3.34 |   3.11 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.64 |   0.31 |   0.32 |   0.32 |   0.28 |   0.21 |   0.27 |   0.34 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 421.82 | 490.40 | 237.67 | 211.26 | 271.28 | 244.20 | 217.71 | 126.95 |                     

  TOTAL      | 507.01 | 524.22 | 262.12 | 265.37 | 301.67 | 269.14 | 251.01 | 145.94 |                     


All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[Davyd05]

I'd love to see some swallow that 1100 btc sell order

[JorgeStolfi]

Total trade volume today (Tue Mar/11 00:00--23:59 UTC), on the exchanges that I monitor, was ~146 kBTC.  That is 42% less than yesterday's, and 71% less than last Tuesdays.

Trade volume outside China fell 43% compared to yesterday (from 33 to 19 kBTC).  Bitstamp (9.17 kBTC) retained its first place, but Bitfinex (3.63) fell to third place, behind BTC-e (5.09).  Bitfinex fell 69% compared to yesterday.

Trade volume in China fell 42% (from 218 to 127 kBTC).  OKCoin had more volume than Huobi (52% versus 43%), like it had since last Wednesday.

China's slice of the total volume remained practically unchanged at 87%

[Erdogan]

NOTE: Huobi's CEO denied allegations of fake trade volume, but said nothing about fake Glyptodons.

He also said (Edit: Coindesk) that volume as a comparison between exchanges is mostly irrelevant because of the zero fee policy (which he plans to continue forever). He said exchanges should be considered on functionality, ease of use, security, customer relations and so on. I agree.

[billyjoeallen]

NOTE: Huobi's CEO denied allegations of fake trade volume, but said nothing about fake Glyptodons.

He also said (Bloomberg) that volume as a comparison between exchanges is mostly irrelevant because of the zero fee policy (which he plans to continue forever). He said exchanges should be considered on functionality, ease of use, security, customer relations and so on. I agree.

What's the business model of an exchange that charges no fees? How can they get the revenue to continue operations after the seed money runs out?