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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371182 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
F-bernanke
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March 12, 2014, 08:37:20 AM


What's the business model of an exchange that charges no fees? How can they get the revenue to continue operations after the seed money runs out?

Front running.
"Bitcoin: mining our own business since 2009" -- Pieter Wuille
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March 12, 2014, 08:38:29 AM

In case someone here is interested:
   
  U.S. judge freezes assets of Mt. Gox bitcoin exchange boss
  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=511675.msg5649623#msg5649623
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March 12, 2014, 08:38:56 AM

Sally's flashing her 10k ask at BFX again.

Looks to me like she's only showing her stuff when the market is trending downwards and she always seems to pull out the moment someone touches her stuff.

So it appears she's accumulating. Sure makes you wonder what her position goal is, does she want ALL the bitcoins?

Who's Sally?
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March 12, 2014, 08:39:02 AM


If you want to continue to assert that the government is the same as a robber, then why should we further engage in such discussion under the circumstances, that I am NOT going to go along with that stupid ass and simplistic framing of the situation.... that on the face of it, should be obvious to any one with brain cells and reason... although maybe the person would need to have at least the equivalent of a 6th grade education...  to be able to engage in more complex thinking... Now I should NOT be insulting 5th graders b/c I am sure that many of them should be able to understand the difference between government and robbers... even some 1st graders will understand such.


You do appear to have a first grader's understanding of the topic at hand. Government robbers are a subset of the larger class of robbers, which includes private sector robbers.
Grizzly bears and dogs are both mammals. The State and bandits are both robbers. They are different, but not in the ways that qualify them as mammals and robbers respectively.

So, why don't you answer the question then?  Are you going to leave your 1 year old with a dog or with a grizzly bear for safe keeping?

Neither, obviously. Robbers are to be avoided, whatever their other characteristics.

Thanks for your cooperation...  Tongue      Roll Eyes
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March 12, 2014, 08:43:19 AM

China may have realized that it cannot stifle bitcoin.. and china has a mixed set of motives including a desire to have some kind of investment vehicle separate from the dollar... .. so China is likely torn about bitcoin and about whether they like it or hate it... maybe they are frienemies with bitcoin?

From what Iknow, Chinese residents cannot pay for goods or services using bitcoin; banks and other financial institutions cannot deal with bitcoin; bitcoins cannot be sold by e-commerce sites; and e-payment services cannot be used to pay for bitcoin.   So what is left?

I believe there are other cointries which have taken similar measures; Russia and India, perhaps? (A thread was started in this forum to build a list the legal status of bitcoin in each coutry, but it never got beyond the first draft.)  Some countries (like the US)  have not banned crypto-coins explicitly, but their existing regulations alerady prevent some of those uses. 

If crypto currencies will only be used for clandestine private commerce between peers, under risk of legal penalties who don't care about regulation, they will have failed succeeded in their goal.

FTFY

Chinese corrupted officers will push Bitcoin price up 1000 times

http://www.bit-sky.com/index.php/english/370-chinese-corrupted-officers-will-push-bitcoin-price-up-1000-times


Nice. This is a nice example of money being whatever the traders prefer to use as money.

Current money (fiat notes and token coins, credit money and debit money (deposits in combination with debit cards)) are good for most things. Deposit account money lacks the hideability feature, and all fiat money lacks the store of value feature. Golden monkey stamp money does not have wings, and house money lacks the fungibility, durability and divisibility features. Good prospects for bitcoin, which is superior on most features.
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March 12, 2014, 08:48:58 AM

Apologies if this has already been posted or opened up for discussion - but what do you all think of the NY regulators proposal to accept applications for regulated bitcoin exchanges in the US?

http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/po_vc_03112014.pdf

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March 12, 2014, 08:51:01 AM

My question is, why the Chinese government banned Cryptocurrency but allows everything going?

For the same reason most of the laws in the U.S. exist:  To keep everyone in a constant state of fear and submission.  If you step out of line, there are probably a dozen felony charges that can be laid against you at any time.

Generally, yes, but the situation in China is quite clear for the moment. There was a month or so where officials' statements were unclear (possibly with intent, or they just hadn't decided yet), and mr Lee of BTCChina was extremely pessimistic.
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March 12, 2014, 09:09:35 AM

Apologies if this has already been posted or opened up for discussion - but what do you all think of the NY regulators proposal to accept applications for regulated bitcoin exchanges in the US?

http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/po_vc_03112014.pdf


It is always better to have things clearly written down. Better than just say something and let others (banks) do the regulation with no possibility for defense in court.

Personally I prefer minimum regulation. Any regulation will add up to something chaotic and eventually be captured by a group of actors, and it will really not protect against fraud, just make customers complacent.

In the long run, it doesn't matter. The rules will be changed when the real fight begins.
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March 12, 2014, 09:29:53 AM

When actual risk is swamped by volaility, those who discount risk/reward on the basis of volatility will grossly overestimate risk, and those who estimate it more accurately have a huge advantage.  They will buy more and at higher prices, and therefore hold more when appreciation occurs.  They will hold through the volatility.  I think that many "weak hands" in bitcoin are the result of mistaking risk and vol.  This may be the only advantage which technical people have over wall street types:  They understand the fundamental risks better, and are less likely to mistake them with volatility.

So much wisdom from this poster +1.

I, for one, do not regard volatility as a risk at all, rather an opportunity to generate extra gains (if you are into trading).

As my planned expenses for the year 2014 are only about 10% of my assets (even in absence of any income), it does not matter what the BTC fiat price does in the short term, 1-2 years. The main risk I am concerned about with it is total loss, and that can be hedged against with reasonable but not overcautious diversification. Keeping 50%+ in bitcoins is reasonable because its historical return has been about 1000% per year.

The people with this mindset have done the best with Bitcoin historically. Going all-in is risky, if you have sudden expenses or are moody. Having less than 50% bitcoins, you miss out on gains that I posit are actually risk-free.


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March 12, 2014, 09:37:32 AM

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?


That is great!!!   When is the e-book coming out?  

Are you going to discuss potential government attempts to undermine BTC, and the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitocin given the P2P nature of it... which will cause governments to likely employ covert tactics to attempt to undermine bitcoin (and or to attempt to keep it in check) while appearing that they are NOT attempting to undermine bitcoin?    Also, another aspect of government is that various members of government are very confused about bitcoin.. and do NOT really know what to do.. b/c bitcoin seems so small and insignificant... relative to other markets.... such as gold or fiat currencies....

Also, interesting to know about decisions within the government about how to treat confiscated coins... could they use these coins to manipulate BTC, and have governments considered these kinds of tactics.

I think earliest this April. I have carefully selected the title to be "history" so that I would not need to speculate on the future too much. I see a void in Bitcoin's history, and I have always wanted to be historian. Well, as I am already a Bitcoin economist, it makes sense to write about something I know and am interested in Smiley

Also Bitcoin advances so quickly (exchange rate 23.5% per month on average, userbase a little slower) that an attempt to write something comprehensive will definitely remain just that - an attempt Wink

This would be just 20 pages of text and 20 pages of footnotes, sources and methodology. When it's out, perhaps I can team up with someone else to write a sequel from a different angle. Sirius was kind to join me in this first one, since he has been in it since the beginning, and together we can patch up the whole history so far.
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March 12, 2014, 09:45:14 AM

Apologies if this has already been posted or opened up for discussion - but what do you all think of the NY regulators proposal to accept applications for regulated bitcoin exchanges in the US?

http://www.dfs.ny.gov/about/po_vc_03112014.pdf



I think its interesting and a definate positive if it passes. However as was mentioned in a conversation here a week or so ago on the face of it the feeling is that your money would be safer etc etc but with American KYC and AML plus the willingness for the US government to seize assets it may still not be a very safe option.
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March 12, 2014, 09:49:05 AM

When consensus is bearish (everyone has sold already), it is time to buy. Like now, I see that there is very little downside and explosive upside in as little as 2 months.

Btw. I am in the process of coauthoring (with sirius) an e-book about "History of Bitcoin Economy". What would you like to have discussed?


That is great!!!   When is the e-book coming out?  

Are you going to discuss potential government attempts to undermine BTC, and the fact that governments may see their abilities and efforts as very difficult to regulate and/or stifle bitocin given the P2P nature of it... which will cause governments to likely employ covert tactics to attempt to undermine bitcoin (and or to attempt to keep it in check) while appearing that they are NOT attempting to undermine bitcoin?    Also, another aspect of government is that various members of government are very confused about bitcoin.. and do NOT really know what to do.. b/c bitcoin seems so small and insignificant... relative to other markets.... such as gold or fiat currencies....

Also, interesting to know about decisions within the government about how to treat confiscated coins... could they use these coins to manipulate BTC, and have governments considered these kinds of tactics.

I think earliest this April. I have carefully selected the title to be "history" so that I would not need to speculate on the future too much. I see a void in Bitcoin's history, and I have always wanted to be historian. Well, as I am already a Bitcoin economist, it makes sense to write about something I know and am interested in Smiley

Also Bitcoin advances so quickly (exchange rate 23.5% per month on average, userbase a little slower) that an attempt to write something comprehensive will definitely remain just that - an attempt Wink

This would be just 20 pages of text and 20 pages of footnotes, sources and methodology. When it's out, perhaps I can team up with someone else to write a sequel from a different angle. Sirius was kind to join me in this first one, since he has been in it since the beginning, and together we can patch up the whole history so far.

20 pages (plus notes) does not seem a lot to cover 'the whole history so far' - I would be surprised if you can be so succinct.  Once you start, I would hazard a guess it will be a tad longer.

But I do look forward to it, nonetheless.
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March 12, 2014, 10:01:18 AM

litecoin is off charts, I will speculate about us passing the 0.05 LTC/BTC pair in a couple of weeks Smiley
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March 12, 2014, 10:02:16 AM


Explanation
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March 12, 2014, 10:04:57 AM

Both bid and ask side on Stamp have more than doubled in a few hours.

I sense that a fireworks battle is coming.

Matchsticks anyone?  Tongue
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March 12, 2014, 10:16:29 AM

20 pages (plus notes) does not seem a lot to cover 'the whole history so far' - I would be surprised if you can be so succinct.  Once you start, I would hazard a guess it will be a tad longer.

At least I try Smiley
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March 12, 2014, 10:23:28 AM

[snip] I do admit, however, at at least one point, I suggested that to me it seems that some people are going to need to be forced to contribute to the community b/c if they were left on their own, they would NOT contribute.

I admit I have a problem with this way of thinking. Again, moral arguments about force and coercion aside, what incentive is there for the community (the government. you still seem to be conflating these two) to bother providing quality products/services if they are granted a monopoly and can just force people to pay? Besides, this creates a situation, where people are left with no choice but to give up their resources to this monopoly and are thus relieved of responsibility for their choices. A society in which people do not feel they have a responsibility to care for their elders, educate their children and care for their own health seems distastefully infantile to me. It is an ideal set of people if you want to control them, though.

You seem to want more of an explanation in places that I feel that already that I have adequately explained.  For example, my outlining situation 1 and situation 2 was to ensure with thread participants on this topic that we are talking about the same thing.. and some posters are trying to equate situations 1 and 2 (including yourself) that in my view should clearly and logically be understood as different... b/c the actor in situation 2 is different from the actor in situation 1 (which makes a very meaningful and material difference).

To the best of my ability, the only explanation I am able to grasp is that even though the process you describe is the same (taking by force/coercion), you call it by a different name, because it is initiated by different actors. This reeks of double speak to me. Just like calling armed guerrillas "freedom fighters" or "terrorists", depending on whether you like them or not.

Weren't you supposed to be explaining the steps we're going to take to achieve your ideal? Maybe your buddies will help you, but given the history of them ducking me whenever I ask them to explain the hard stuff, I'd say you might be on your own.

Yes indeed! I have written about this in my article I have linked before, an excerpt follows. But first let me state again that I suspect that the centralized management of society from the top down by force is the root cause of our problems, so it follows that I do not believe the solution to be the initiation of centrally planned reform from the top down. I hope that makes sense to you. Here is the excerpt:

Quote
Inevitably there comes the angry response: So what is YOUR solution? Tell us how to really fix this mess if you’re so smart as to tear down all our propositions.

And because I have thought about this for a long time I am not afraid to admit that I do not know. I have no solution. I have no five steps to guaranteed prosperity. No grand plan to put a chicken into every pot and secure well-being and happiness for all. Sorry.

Ah ha! So you are just a charlatan! Happy to criticise, but not bringing any solutions to the table. You are what’s wrong with society. You should go vote for the right people.

At this point I have to erupt into laughter once again. Because they have missed the point again. And they might never get it, because it frightens them too much. The point being this: there is no one solution for it all. The best plan, the most well-meaning intentions, the most noble ideals fall flat onto their face when confronted with the messiness of human affairs. The reason for this is simple, though. It’s called complexity. Let me point out that human society is getting more complex and complicated. In an exponential manner, it seems. So what exactly makes you think that one person, or perhaps a group of people can figure out the best way of running everything? They can’t. And the delusion that they can is a very dangerous one indeed. Take a peek at history if you don’t believe me.

But OK, I’ll admit, maybe there is a solution, after all. But it doesn’t consist of what needs to be done, it consists of what we need to stop doing. Stop dictating how people should save for their retirement. Care for their health. Educate their children. Stop taking their resources to turn them into “what they need”. You don’t know what they need. Yes, probably at this point they don’t know either – but that’s because this system has stripped them of the responsibility to figure it out for themselves. So stop doing that as well!

The point this rant is trying to bring across the point, that complexity and diversity can’t be centrally planned and managed without creating atrocities such as we are witnessing today. Yes, it is frightening to think about. But only because we have been taught to not trust other people. See them as potential enemies, competitors and generally as dumb, unwashed masses too stupid to know what’s best for them. Yes, divide and conquer seems to work still just fine.

I realize this might be too vague for your taste, so I will elaborate. But first of all let me state that we find ourselves in a very difficult position to achieve meaningful change by voluntary, decentralized means. Yes, technology is giving us new and better tools all the time, but the government still routinely takes half of our income and limits competition in a wide variety of spheres. I have a feeling that the situation still needs to deteriorate further before enough people view just about any other option as preferable to what they have now. Right now most people seem to prefer the Devil they know.

Richy_T had some good ideas about balancing the budget, cancelling central banks and cutting down on government spending. These are nice, but I'm not sure they're doable. The very structure of the government as an institution prohibits them. Which is why I feel the need for non-governmental alternatives.

My view is we should start with the basics: health care, care for children, disabled people and the elderly, education, social security. Start building local centers which would provide the necessities of life and be financed by voluntary contribution. Sure, this might not work, depending whether people actually are compassionate and willing to donate, or not - but it's worth a try. Crypto could play an obvious and huge role here. I find myself constantly donating some BTC every time I see some cause I support, or product I like. I would definitely contribute some of my time, energy and money to such projects. I find it near impossible to believe that it would take as much as half of our collective resources to achieve the goal of providing basic life necessities for everyone who needs them. I think we need a change in our cultural outlook first of all.

Another related thought I had: so far I have been content to be the bearer of the burden of proof in this discussion, but actually it doesn't necessarily have to be this way. The same way you can tell me I need to explain why a decentralized society might work I can call on you to prove that it couldn't. It is equally hard to do, because we lack data. Also I can put the burden of proof on you to explain, why it is necessary to have an institution with the monopoly on legal initiation of force, which consumes huge amounts of resources, raises armies, routinely imprisons, tortures and kills people, even its own citizens, wages wars, is responsible for the death of millions and is making a small group of insiders obscenely rich while failing to deliver on its promises to help out the rest. This is a clusterfuck of gigantic proportions and I would think addressing the point of if we really need such a thing should be a top priority and evaluated ASAP. How can the benefits of this institution possibly outweigh its cost?










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March 12, 2014, 10:30:43 AM

20 pages (plus notes) does not seem a lot to cover 'the whole history so far' - I would be surprised if you can be so succinct.  Once you start, I would hazard a guess it will be a tad longer.

At least I try Smiley


I think the information that will (hopefully) come out over the next few months about MtGox may require much of what we think about the history of Bitcoin to be re-written. MtGox has been instrumental in many of the major price moves in the past few years, and it may turn out that those moves were not simply market driven, but were as a result of internal manipulation.
Of course this could all be a bit Tinfoil Hat, but I think there is certainly a significant probability that the Willy bot, the timing of the DDOS's and  Transaction Malleability has more it's the story than we currently know.
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March 12, 2014, 10:58:11 AM

20 pages (plus notes) does not seem a lot to cover 'the whole history so far' - I would be surprised if you can be so succinct.  Once you start, I would hazard a guess it will be a tad longer.

At least I try Smiley

Yes, sometimes less is more.  And here it could be so much more Wink
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March 12, 2014, 11:02:12 AM


Explanation
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