Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dabs]

Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction.  In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..

Well, we know he didn't need to touch it for 9 years, and he took care of the keys so he could move it at the current time. People who would have been into bitcoin 9 years ago most likely didn't need the money as it was no way for anyone back then to profit from immediately.

Someone bought pizza for 10k coins ...

He couldn't have possibly predicted he'd have $24 million today. Maybe he did? He didn't need the coins for 9 years, an additional $3 million ... in addition to any income he currently has now or whatever wealth he has, on the assumption he was an early adopter of bitcoin that did not need the money, but actually believed in the tech, or decided, "hey I'll buy like $100 worth of bitcoin today" 9 years ago or however much 750 coins cost him if it wasn't mined or earned otherwise.

We don't really know, we are all speculating ...

No, it wasn't a horrible estimate.  I would guess it is probably off by 1 order of magnitude.  Yes I suspect bitcoin will absorb a lot of the value in gold, fiat, bonds, and to a much lesser degree housing and stocks.  But I don't see why it would need to be as large as all real-estate, companies, commodities, bonds etc. put together. 

I will try to leave it at that.  I know I have a tendency to become a bit pedantic and argumentative, and I don't want to hijack the thread.

I did add another zero to the estimate, at $100 million per coin. Would that be considered off by 1 order of magnitude? I also understand you can be going in the other direction, which would mean $1 million per coin ... That's also an order of magnitude lower.

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Ok.,, but not too many people are waking up out of a 9 year coma.... .. so the scenarios for just leaving the BTC sit do not seem to be too likely for anyone who does not have a decent amount of other resources.. and not even suggesting that there would be very much value to bat around our differing perspectives in probabilities in this direction.  In other words, I am not really inclined to play around with how likely one scenario is or another scenario, but surely we can describe a scenario and then describe how to treat such a scenario.... and the more relevant fact of this matter (even assuming that 750 BTC was all that he had in the world) would be that the guy had $22 million in value and severed off $3 million in value, and still seems to be a bit much to say that he is going to treat the $3 million in one way and then let the other $19million grow or divide it up or whatever.. just a bunch of grasping at speculation, even if there are a variety of ways to attempt to consider the whole matter including how much to spend and even to create a plan into the future of 65 years or even some other kind of way of planning. gosh sounds like the plans of a corporation if we are considering 65 years into the future... or some kind of lucky young peep who happens to be able to employ a lot of deferred gratification..

Well, we know he didn't need to touch it for 9 years, and he took care of the keys so he could move it at the current time. People who would have been into bitcoin 9 years ago most likely didn't need the money as it was no way for anyone back then to profit from immediately.

Someone bought pizza for 10k coins ...

He couldn't have possibly predicted he'd have $24 million today. Maybe he did? He didn't need the coins for 9 years, an additional $3 million ... in addition to any income he currently has now or whatever wealth he has, on the assumption he was an early adopter of bitcoin that did not need the money, but actually believed in the tech, or decided, "hey I'll buy like $100 worth of bitcoin today" 9 years ago or however much 750 coins cost him if it wasn't mined or earned otherwise.

We don't really know, we are all speculating ...

When I look at 9 years ago, I see a bitcoin price around $5 per coin.. so it is not a trivial amount, whether it was mined or purchased.  That is around $3,750 for 750 BTC.

Otherwise, I do not really have anything to add because I believe that I said my part in regard to the plausibility of the 9 year coma or whatever other possible reasonable way of framing a situation in which coins would be ignored for 9 years in which the BTC price appreciated in value around 6,600x.  Not a trivial matter in which one would just completely ignore without either having other resources or having had been in a coma.. and the first of which seems quite a bit more plausible to this here electronic cat.

No, it wasn't a horrible estimate.  I would guess it is probably off by 1 order of magnitude.  Yes I suspect bitcoin will absorb a lot of the value in gold, fiat, bonds, and to a much lesser degree housing and stocks.  But I don't see why it would need to be as large as all real-estate, companies, commodities, bonds etc. put together. 

I will try to leave it at that.  I know I have a tendency to become a bit pedantic and argumentative, and I don't want to hijack the thread.

I did add another zero to the estimate, at $100 million per coin. Would that be considered off by 1 order of magnitude? I also understand you can be going in the other direction, which would mean $1 million per coin ... That's also an order of magnitude lower.

Yes, I was thinking about 1 order of magnitude as adding or subtracting a zero too, and as you seem to imply Dabs, it seems way too premature for Spaceman to be suggesting that either Hal was off or which direction that might be, if so...   

[Hueristic]

I wonder why I didn't know about this?

How does this news "slip between the cracks"?

Are you guys slacking too or was it posted and I missed it?

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Goldman Sachs or the Company), a global financial institution headquartered in New York, New York, and Goldman Sachs (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (GS Malaysia), its Malaysian subsidiary, have admitted to conspiring to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) in connection with a scheme to pay over $1 billion in bribes to Malaysian and Abu Dhabi officials to obtain lucrative business for Goldman Sachs, including its role in underwriting approximately $6.5 billion in three bond deals for 1Malaysia Development Bhd. (1MDB), for which the bank earned hundreds of millions in fees.  Goldman Sachs will pay more than $2.9 billion as part of a coordinated resolution with criminal and civil authorities in the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and elsewhere.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/goldman-sachs-charged-foreign-bribery-case-and-agrees-pay-over-29-billion


I just watched "The Kleptocrats" documentary, otherwise never would have know about this.

Its nice seeing Ballsacks getting their just deserts!

edited documentary name duh.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

How does this news "slip between the cracks"?

Google "Goldman Sachs profit" and you'll see that the $2.9 billion penalty is a drop in the bucket for them. They just need to bribe a few more sheikhs to make up for it.

If the government had the balls to make it $29 billion (a couple years worth of profit) then maybe it could have been newsworthy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[modrobert]

I see the price met mid $31,000’s. Bit of a dead cat bounce to now meet $32,742. It’s only a matter of time now until new lows are met. Sell everything now before it goes to $20,000. You won’t always have a friendly guy advising you to save your net worth. It’s not too late so get out when you can before the long, cold bear market.

C'mon Billy, this is no time to get bearish on us.

We can't stop now. This is bat country.

Bat country is nothing compared to Bazooko Circus, it's going to get crazier than this, imagine when upwards doesn't really mean anything.

[marcus_of_augustus]

... you're not actually refuting anything Hal talked about, all you are doing is stating he is wrong, on a specific point that's been pulled out of context from a different argument, without backing up that claim.

... and he's actually not that far off for a rough order-of-magnitude estimate, the total float of all the monetary goods in the world, includes fiat M0-M3, gold/silver acting as money-equivalent, real-estate, bonds and other financial assets that are presently being 'monetised', used as stores-of-value, (since fiat money is being inflated) would be quite close to the total worldwide household wealth ... this is the addressable market for a liquid global reserve money

I already gave my argument.  I think it is a non sequitur that the value of money should equal the total amount of wealth in the world.  I tried making an analogy with the measuring in thumbs thing (it might not be the most elegant of analogies), see below:

It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured.  For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb.  Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world?  If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.

I don't how else I can or should make my argument.
What is your point?  Do you think the value of money should equal the total amount of wealth in the world?  Why?

No, it wasn't a horrible estimate.  I would guess it is probably off by 1 order of magnitude.  Yes I suspect bitcoin will absorb a lot of the value in gold, fiat, bonds, and to a much lesser degree housing and stocks.  But I don't see why it would need to be as large as all real-estate, companies, commodities, bonds etc. put together.  

I will try to leave it at that.  I know I have a tendency to become a bit pedantic and argumentative, and I don't want to hijack the thread.

... your "length of the thumb to measure furniture" argument was quirky, but mostly just a half-baked attempt to come up with a unit-of-account refutation of Hal's point but you maybe onto something here that actually points the way to why Hal was right and it has to do with the competing functions of store-of-value and unit-of-account for a sound money

... a monetary good should perform 3 primary functions; 1) medium-of-exchange, 2) store-of-value and 3) unit-of-account

... now we should expect the global reserve money to perform the best at all 3 functions when fully adopted; bitcoin performs well at 1), okay at 2) but poorly at 3) due to it's transitory volatility while it is being adopted. What would a monetary good have to do to perform well at the 'unit-of-account' function? It would need to be relatively stable in value with respect to all other assets, in fact it would need to be the most stable asset.

... for the monetary good to be the global reserve, i.e. perform unit-of-account function (the denominator function for all wealth), it would need to have around as much wealth stored in it as in all other forms, or else it would swing around in a volatile manner due to the difference in magnitudes of the relatives sizes of the markets (store-of-value competing effect) ... I believe the italicised text was almost exactly what Hal stated without expanding on the why

Numeraire extraordinaire

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

July 24th, 2019: “I won’t be talking about #bitcoin in ten years, I can assure you that." - Steve Mnuchin

July 14th 2021: "If people want to buy #bitcoin as a substitute, no different than buying gold or some other asset, it's fine." - Steve Mnuchin

Video Interview on Squawk Box:
https://twitter.com/NeilJacobs/status/1415390103808221192

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

I wonder why I didn't know about this?

How does this news "slip between the cracks"?

Are you guys slacking too or was it posted and I missed it?

The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (Goldman Sachs or the Company), a global financial institution headquartered in New York, New York, and Goldman Sachs (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. (GS Malaysia), its Malaysian subsidiary, have admitted to conspiring to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) in connection with a scheme to pay over $1 billion in bribes to Malaysian and Abu Dhabi officials to obtain lucrative business for Goldman Sachs, including its role in underwriting approximately $6.5 billion in three bond deals for 1Malaysia Development Bhd. (1MDB), for which the bank earned hundreds of millions in fees.  Goldman Sachs will pay more than $2.9 billion as part of a coordinated resolution with criminal and civil authorities in the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, and elsewhere.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/goldman-sachs-charged-foreign-bribery-case-and-agrees-pay-over-29-billion


I just watched "The Kleptocrats" documentary, otherwise never would have know about this.

Its nice seeing Ballsacks getting their just deserts!

edited documentary name duh.

I have followed this story for quite some time.. and I remember I was in Malaysia when this 1MDB program was on it's peak. There used to be huge billboards all over Malaysia depicting Najib Razak and displaying 1MDB in hug block letters. That time I did not know much about it but later the most interesting and mysterious guy came out of it was "Jho Low". His story itself is fascinating how Hollywood, Malaysian PM and some rich Arabs played in hands of this young guy. Wolf of Wall Street came out of this and he showed how really "Crazy Rich Asians" are.

Do watch this "Jho Low: Hunt for a Fugitive" aired on Al Jazeera English
Part 1 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4lj6lC4lrk
Part 2 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZs8gRg0AEE

Also
The Mastermind Behind the $4 Billion 1MDB Con
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzp72WFSR5I

and this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DPbWDuH1DhI

[d_eddie]

This summer will be remembered for a long time.

Ok..... I will bite.

Why?

As a summer of despair before an autumn/winter of joy. A bit like 2013 probably.

Oh?

I cannot really assert that you have decent odds of being wrong - because such a scenario does not necessarily seem to be any kind of stretch - but still  "memorable"?  You have not really said anything that would cause this particular time to play out as particularly memorable, except to historians.  Does anyone give any shits about bitcoin price dynamics in 2013 anymore or remember hardly anything about it except for us more nerdy types who are hanging on every piece of quasi-obscured evidence?

Well, I meant "memorable in a nerdy. WO-like kind of way" of course.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ImThour]

Weird, no one replied on the post in an hour.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[NeuroticFish]

Weird, no one replied on the post in an hour.  

The market looks boring and probably everybody fell asleep.

[psycodad]

<snip>

I am going to devolve even further... Might be a stretch, but if you are not using a VPN, and you are searching BTC addresses, and you search a bunch together, might there not be a presumption that the person who searched those BTC addresses is the owner of the addresses?  Yes, I am maybe overly paranoid.. but there can be some difficulties in knowing how much privacy we might have if we are not covering up some of our traffic.

^This can not be emphasized enough.

I believe it was in this honourable WO thread some time ago when somebody hinted at running Electrum against public servers (especially for i.e. watch-only cold wallets, or other wallets with more than dust in it) to be a huge opsec risk. It made me switch all my electrum wallets to using my tor proxy in the next minute after I thought a moment about it.

De-anonymizing a dynamic ISP IP or a VPN IP is not as difficult as one might expect and if there is a known, nice reward for wielding the wrench, the motivation for wannabe and professional wrench-wielders could be very high at a minimal risk (minimal compared to other kind of "forced wealth transfers" these sort of people might be specialized in).

For me, my next step - motivated especially by some recent encouraging posts here - will be running a full node, my own electrum server and I also want get some hands-on with LN but I have not the needed resources for that kind of setup yet.