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Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336559 times)
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August 17, 2021, 06:59:05 PM
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If so, many of us realize that bitcoin remains a volatile as fuck asset, and some of us proclaim that volatility is close to inevitable in bitcoin, which means that it likely close to one of the ONLY things that you are able to rely upon.. even though not really knowing which direction, so I wonder how you could lock in financial freedom from that $250k price in the event that it were to be a top, rather than a bottom?

Seems to me that would probably need to get into a kind of $1.5 million-ish territory before we might be able to start presuming anything in the range of $250k as a potential bottom-ish price arena.
Good post I agree that only the people that intend on taking their Bitcoin out at 250k would be financially free but then are you free because you took your money out of Bitcoin and put it into a dying fiat currency which will be having a big amount of inflation?

I think if you were to safe guard your investment you would withdraw 50/50 in Bitcoin and fiat. withdrawing 50% of your Bitcoin holdings when it reaches 250k and using that money for a house and to buy assets then retaining the rest in Bitcoin and use that for every day life?
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August 17, 2021, 07:15:08 PM

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still going sideways in the $4xxxx range... currently $46515USD/$58675USD (Bitcoinaverage).

It's a long hot summer.



Nice tattoo (if you like tattoos).

I'm curious why you've spurned Jeff Bridges in favor of Leonardo Dicaprio.

Is it because Bridges is a boomer and Dicaprio is gen-X?

Seems that the dude already has both..

Imagine a classic Ron Jeremy on my arm or leg  Cool

Aren't all your arms and legs full yet?

That's part of the rationale why this here "dude's" preference would be the henna tattoo, and I would imagine that they hurt less worser, too (not that I am speaking from experience beyond speculative observations).

dunno...stuck in a s/r zone at $46kish
does not seem like a breakout upwards is on the table just yet
so either sideways or one more spike down for the year...seems to be a thing in Q3
I do think right now anything I say the opposite might happen...something to think about
anyway...ready, steady go

4h


D


Not that I am proclaiming ownership, but are you trying to steal my "go to" line? 

"It's 50/50 dude."

 Angry Angry Angry Angry

I'm so angry.. on the inside


If BTC hits 250k$, I will achieve financial freedom. Cheesy
I think everyone in the thread would achieve financial freedom if it hit that high.

Everyone?

I wonder about that.

Do you believe that 0.21 BTC is going to bring financial freedom at $250k for some of us?  That's merely $52,500.  And some even more newbies have not even reached that level of BTC accumulation, yet.  Furthermore, who is to say that we are even able to hang onto the quantity of BTC that we currently own if the BTC price goes up more than 5x from here in terms of fiat value? 

BTC HODLers/accumulators get excited frequently and cannot even recall what their goal(s) was(were), if they had any in the first place, and then frequently, those kinds of peeps sell way too much of whatever BTC they did happen to have too early.. I have seen those kinds of behaviors.. even from WO regulars,  time and time again..

I have had my hopes reinvigorated recently because of the rise of Bitcoin price it really was a bad time for me when it hit the lows we were seeing. I held onto my Bitcoin just in case it recovered but I will be honest I was not expecting it to but I was in a bad place. I am glad that I was proven wrong it recovered and hoping now it will rally to new heights.  

I will agree with you that it surely can be difficult to HODL through dips, so you are kind of arguing my point regarding the difficulties that some folks are going to have in terms of having any BTC left in their investment portfolio in the event that we were to make it to $250k prices were it to occur this cycle or were it to take one or two more cycles to play out.

If I was to ask everyone here the realistic chance of it reaching 250k do you think it will happen and when?

I already partly answered this in terms of my current expectations about various probabilities for the top of the BTC price for this cycle.. even though the analysis price range that I used was $150k to $300k..   

Furthermore, if we were to attempt to assign odds that go beyond this particular, the various projected scenarios could would likely come out different in terms of first speculating this cycle and then that could affect the next cycle.. so surely, the further out the more speculative the whole matter becomes.... so we are lucky enough to attempt to get prediction attempts that are kept within this cycle.. presuming that there is such a thing as a cycle, too... 
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August 17, 2021, 07:49:05 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.

I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.

sideways lightning, bulbs glowing red, outlets 'buzzing', I don't know of any natural electrical  thunderstorm phenomena that can produce those kind of effects ... that sounds well, unbelievable, have you considered alien activity in the area? Or some other kind of radiation, increased solar proton flux? What latitude are you at?

here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady.
 


normal light from the same lamp for comparison



Latitude-About 30oN.

I think I have an explanation for you, but I have to run now, Ill post it later.
But here's a hint. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvQ9H9K7XeM

After returning home and reading through other answers to your question I think it has been answered already so I'll just make it short.

Sideways lightning is not at all unheard of, this creates (low voltage) "electricity in the air" this "electricity" or electromagnetic radiation can be picked up by some electric equipment like for example luminous bulbs and/or power lines and make things go weird in your home.
The red bulb is read because of low voltage.
Aliens not involved.

Fun facts

Farmers sometimes place luminous tubes next to electric fencing to check if it works, when there's a power pulse the tube lights up.

A farmer in Sweden some years ago put a roll of barbed wire under a high voltage power line and ran two wires to his barn, he used this electricity to power his barn and garage.
Unfortunately for him the power company sent a crew out to trim the growth under the wires, and they found the roll of barbed wire, followed the wires to the barn, and he was busted and charged with electricity theft.
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August 17, 2021, 07:57:30 PM

OT: a strange thunderstorm yesterday in H-town. Lightning mostly at a very sharp angle, instead of usual where most lightning is typically close to the right angle.
Lost power for a while, but then some strange electrical event occurred.
Some bulbs, especially those that are 'new' (economical) type started glowing in red (not white or yellow) and several electrical outlets (I assume those with fuses) started a slight buzz (which I recorded) for a good 15-20 min, then stopped.

I am not an electrician, but what could have caused it? Some residual charge in the air? It was very weird, never seen/heard anything like that.

sideways lightning, bulbs glowing red, outlets 'buzzing', I don't know of any natural electrical  thunderstorm phenomena that can produce those kind of effects ... that sounds well, unbelievable, have you considered alien activity in the area? Or some other kind of radiation, increased solar proton flux? What latitude are you at?

here is the weird 'induced" light..it was not flickering, steady.
 
[snip]

normal light from the same lamp for comparison

[snip]

Latitude-About 30oN.

I think I have an explanation for you, but I have to run now, Ill post it later.
But here's a hint. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvQ9H9K7XeM

After returning home and reading through other answers to your question I think it has been answered already so I'll just make it short.

Sideways lightning is not at all unheard of, this creates (low voltage) "electricity in the air" this "electricity" or electromagnetic radiation can be picked up by some electric equipment like for example luminous bulbs and/or power lines and make things go weird in your home.
The red bulb is read because of low voltage.
Aliens not involved.

Fun facts

Farmers sometimes place luminous tubes next to electric fencing to check if it works, when there's a power pulse the tube lights up.

A farmer in Sweden some years ago put a roll of barbed wire under a high voltage power line and ran two wires to his barn, he used this electricity to power his barn and garage.
Unfortunately for him the power company sent a crew out to trim the growth under the wires, and they found the roll of barbed wire, followed the wires to the barn, and he was busted and charged with electricity theft.

Thanks, it all makes sense.
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August 17, 2021, 07:57:33 PM
Merited by Biodom (1)

Farmers sometimes place luminous tubes next to electric fencing to check if it works, when there's a power pulse the tube lights up.

CB/armature radio antennas will light florescent tubes up when held near them on transmit.
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August 17, 2021, 08:00:01 PM

If BTC hits 250k$, I will achieve financial freedom. Cheesy
I think everyone in the thread would achieve financial freedom if it hit that high. I have had my hopes reinvigorated recently because of the rise of Bitcoin price it really was a bad time for me when it hit the lows we were seeing. I held onto my Bitcoin just in case it recovered but I will be honest I was not expecting it to but I was in a bad place. I am glad that I was proven wrong it recovered and hoping now it will rally to new heights.  

If I was to ask everyone here the realistic chance of it reaching 250k do you think it will happen and when?
Financial freedom is hard to define. Some people would only require 250k to retire others would need to have 1 million-5 million to retire. It depends on your age your commitments and your living style. If you are age 20 and do not have a house then you would need at least 150-250k for a reasonable house. If you have children then you can factor in that you will probably spend tens of 1000s on them. If you have medical issues that you could not predict then that could range from a couple of 1000 to 100k+ depending on if you have insurance and if the insurance will cover your medical problem.

I think a good estimate is 2 million for those that are frugal, 3 million for those that are moderate livers and 5 million to retire almost everyone. For my prediction I would say 100k in 5 years is reasonable and 250k+ in 10 years would be stretching it but possible.

I was with you all the way Zedpastin, until you got to the last sentence.. Holy fucking shit.

Of course, there is no problem with being conservative and keeping your expectations relatively low (or not too high), but $250k in 10 years is a stretch, but possible..   In 10 years, $20million is a stretch, but possible.. $250k is pretty damned conservative.. but surely possible as well.

On a personal level, I do not want to be too presumptuous, so I have no problem at all to plan around something like 6% per year average price appreciation of my BTC investment portfolio.. which would end up with way smaller numbers than $250k in 10 years, but even if I am personally using very conservative numbers to protect my lil selfie.. we should also attempt to be reasonable in terms of the various upside potentials of this particular asset class that may or may not play out, but there are a lot of scenarios that go way above and beyond a conservative 6% per year expectation.. especially when considering ways to plan around bitcoin and maybe even stocking a bit more or something and not locking yourself into conservative thinking - but that would not necessarily mean taking undue risks either.. One of the nice things about bitcoin both historically and even considering current planning is that you do not necessarily need to invest a lot in order to still be prepared for the scenarios of higher BTC performance that may or may not happen (and still get richie way beyond expectations.. already happened to lots of relatively conservative peeps.. no need to mention names, right?).

If BTC hits 250k$, I will achieve financial freedom. Cheesy
I think everyone in the thread would achieve financial freedom if it hit that high. I have had my hopes reinvigorated recently because of the rise of Bitcoin price it really was a bad time for me when it hit the lows we were seeing. I held onto my Bitcoin just in case it recovered but I will be honest I was not expecting it to but I was in a bad place. I am glad that I was proven wrong it recovered and hoping now it will rally to new heights.  

If I was to ask everyone here the realistic chance of it reaching 250k do you think it will happen and when?
Financial freedom is hard to define. Some people would only require 250k to retire others would need to have 1 million-5 million to retire. It depends on your age your commitments and your living style. If you are age 20 and do not have a house then you would need at least 150-250k for a reasonable house. If you have children then you can factor in that you will probably spend tens of 1000s on them. If you have medical issues that you could not predict then that could range from a couple of 1000 to 100k+ depending on if you have insurance and if the insurance will cover your medical problem.

I think a good estimate is 2 million for those that are frugal, 3 million for those that are moderate livers and 5 million to retire almost everyone. For my prediction I would say 100k in 5 years is reasonable and 250k+ in 10 years would be stretching it but possible.

 Not sure where you're living but there is no "reasonable" house in North America for $150k - you'd be lucky to get a trailer on leased land for that price.


edit: The average house price in Canada (April 2021) is $716k
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/photos/canada-real-estate-prices-scroller-1.6004260

You may well need to do a quite a bit more house shopping Xhomer..

I know of a lot of houses that have recently sold in the USA for well less than $150k.. not distressed properties or anything.. . .and I will just give you one example of a house around $150k that recently sold (not making shit up, and don't even think that this kind of case is unusual.. even with some recent pumpenings of house prices).. Anyhow..  on 4 acres of land, three bedrooms, two bathrooms two car garage, about 3 miles outside of a town of 2k-ish people (county seat so not in the boonies boonies).. About 60 to 100 miles from a few towns (very small cities) of 70k to 100k people.. maybe around 1,800 square feet in size between the upstairs & downstairs (somewhat finished basement).. with both a well and with rural water.. some neighbors in the area.. around 6-7 neighbor houses in a 1/4 mile to 1 mile away radius..  sure rural.. and not next to the ocean.. but still... there may be some places in the USA next to the ocean (gulf... but similar idea) that will have similar prices (or lower) think lower states Mississippi or Louisiana or Alabama

For sure I like PlanB and his data, but sometimes I have to think: "holy fucking shit" or oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes....is the guy delusional, or what?  

He is supposed to be a scientist.  $43k for September and $63k for October as a worse case scenario.. holy fucking shit.. that is almost retarded.. like the odds are zero that we will go below $43k in September or zero odds that we will go below $63k in October..

I never heard anything more ridiculous from a supposed science.. even though I agree with a lot of his other ideas and about the model, but he seems to conclude that the model is broken if any of the things beyond the model expectation parameters play out such as the below $43k for September or the below $63k for October.  

He seems to be inviting his own failure (or the failure of his model and then if the unthinkable were to occur then he has to revise his conceptualization of model parameters and blah blah blah and say .. but what I meant to say was.. blah blah blah)..  

Please.. let's get a divorce.. ... divorce PlanB from his own model.  #nohomo


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Please note for what it is worth that I claim to be a layperson non-scientist making these kinds of criticism of the scientist assertions.
Scientist does not mean they know about the economy and he demonstrates this by his wild predictions. What type of scientist is he suppose to be any way?

I am thinking that it does not really matter very much what kind of scientist PlanB is, but he is attempting to apply scientific methods to data.. and assigning some outcomes as causing his model to be invalidated.. just seems to deviate from my understanding of accounting for how much deviation would be tolerable to still proclaim that the model is still valid.. so of course, he can make whatever proclamations that he likes and attempt to maintain his credibility. but those kinds of outlandish statements that suggest that below $43k in September or below $63k in October breaks his model.. just seem crazy as fuck when we had already been down into the upper $20ks and the lower $30ks for the past three months-ish.  

I feel like I am starting to somewhat repeat myself.   Cry Cry Cry
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August 17, 2021, 08:01:26 PM


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August 17, 2021, 08:04:11 PM
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The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.


Well well well JJG is turning bearish?  Shocked Not a good sign... I feel I'm going to suffer without lambos, hookers and blow for another 4 years? NOT!

I'm more than ever convinced that we're going to reach a new ATH (and subsequently a blowoff top of $150-450k) this year. Hodl strong brethren!  Cool
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August 17, 2021, 08:06:29 PM

Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.

weeeee
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August 17, 2021, 08:09:33 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (4), JayJuanGee (1)

Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.

weeeee

These bearish losers use any small correction to talk about 4 digits lol

3 months of massive FUD and bears could not brake 29k.
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August 17, 2021, 08:10:24 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (5), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

some here already have reached financial freedom so the current price doesnt really matter

Les grandeur par triomphe et la financier liberté.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snxUHRaGTuA&list=PLI1v5HVKJXgPABl1godoeEfinxfpqKkw2&index=3
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August 17, 2021, 08:12:41 PM
Last edit: August 17, 2021, 09:49:08 PM by Biodom
Merited by El duderino_ (5), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), Arriemoller (1), serveria.com (1)

People overall have difficulty in projecting exponential price trends, therefore 1-5 and 10mil price prediction seems outrageous even 10 years out even though just 50%/year appreciation for btc (1/4 of prior average) would result in approx $2.6 mil/btc in 10 years, which is quite doable.
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August 17, 2021, 08:22:59 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.

weeeee

Four digits are still great for those who managed to invest early! You need to try harder to scare the early adopters... say double digits? That's a lot scarier but still 100+% profit for some...  Grin
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August 17, 2021, 08:51:15 PM

Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔
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August 17, 2021, 09:14:55 PM
Last edit: August 17, 2021, 09:32:13 PM by JayJuanGee


If so, many of us realize that bitcoin remains a volatile as fuck asset, and some of us proclaim that volatility is close to inevitable in bitcoin, which means that it likely close to one of the ONLY things that you are able to rely upon.. even though not really knowing which direction, so I wonder how you could lock in financial freedom from that $250k price in the event that it were to be a top, rather than a bottom?

Seems to me that would probably need to get into a kind of $1.5 million-ish territory before we might be able to start presuming anything in the range of $250k as a potential bottom-ish price arena.
Good post I agree that only the people that intend on taking their Bitcoin out at 250k would be financially free but then are you free because you took your money out of Bitcoin and put it into a dying fiat currency which will be having a big amount of inflation?

I think if you were to safe guard your investment you would withdraw 50/50 in Bitcoin and fiat. withdrawing 50% of your Bitcoin holdings when it reaches 250k and using that money for a house and to buy assets then retaining the rest in Bitcoin and use that for every day life?

Well, each person is going to have to assess how to allocate their value in bitcoin versus other assets including calculating their various expenses, so if they fuck up their assessment, they may well end up concluding that they had gotten to "fuck you" status by quitting their job and then planning to use their acquired value for their remaining years.  would not be a very pretty picture to have the plan play out way less sustainable than anticipated and also to be forced into a kind of poverty because failure/refusal to account for situations that could easily happen (even if you had erroneously assessed such situations as "unforeseeable").

I am not even proclaiming to not pull the fuck you status lever, and for sure as far as assessing BTC value, I am way more in favor of assessing BTC value at projections of possible extreme bottom prices rather than at anticipated spot prices.. and a lot of the rationale for going through such a potentially rigorously conservative assessment of BTC value has to do with its historical high volatility that has no real signs of lessening in any kind of meaningful and sustainable way... at least not yet..   Sure, there can be ways to utilize anticipated high spot prices in order to consider price locations to consider reallocating into other assets/currencies.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.


Well well well JJG is turning bearish?  Shocked Not a good sign... I feel I'm going to suffer without lambos, hookers and blow for another 4 years? NOT!

I'm more than ever convinced that we're going to reach a new ATH (and subsequently a blowoff top of $150-450k) this year. Hodl strong brethren!  Cool

I don't consider my assessment as bearish..

I did make a supplemental assessment and explanation attempt, but I don't consider my assessment to be bearish at all in terms of saying that the odds are 72/28 that we get above $48k in the remainder of this particular cycle (it may be too bullish if you really think about it.. but whatever, that is my current seemingly lame-ass assessment).. and of course, various gradients of that depending on how for you go..

By the way serveria, what's your "more than ever convinced confidence level in regards to your BIG ass range of $150k to $450k for this year? Are you able to break that into smaller sections.. because as soon as the price gets into $150k, you could proclaim to have been correct, but is that really fair if it were to end up being a 1 hour spike in terms of including $450k in such same window?  Furthermore, "this year"  oh my!!!!!!!   Could this cycle and possible "blow off top" potentially drag out into happening in 2022?  

Are your above sorcery-wannabe-like proclamations (vague as they may be?  hahahahaha) invalidated as soon as January 1 comes and if we have not either reached your crystal ball range or we might not have even reached $64,895 by January 1.  Would that be possible in terms of keeping an anticipated bull thesis intact?

asking for a friend.


Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.

weeeee

Oh gawd...  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

Look at what turd twat is back.. hoping that he might be right some day if he keeps up predicting.. sooner or later, no?

Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.

weeeee

Four digits are still great for those who managed to invest early! You need to try harder to scare the early adopters... say double digits? That's a lot scarier but still 100+% profit for some...  Grin

Call me a scaredy-cat if you must.

I would be considerably scared of 4 digits

and really even more scared of 3 digits.. would have to be some serious negative reasons for something like that to happen or even get close to happening...

Gosh even getting below $20k may well negate this particular bull run (depending upon if it were a spike down or not), and then getting below $14k.. especially if it were to be sustainable for anything beyond a few weeks would question even the BTC price in a bear market... in my current thinking on the extreme possible bottoms.

Billy the twat no coiner does not scare me because there is nothing in his proclamations besides his happening to have a wish and his stating his wish out loud on a public thread for the rest of us to hear (perhaps for effect)..... it's like a 5-year old who can kind of reason. and then the 5-year old proclaims that something may or may not happen, yet you are not going to give much credence at all to your 5-year old or even give them any kind of audience, unless s/he actually has some special abilities that are not typically in the capacities of 99% of normie 5-year olds (or your giving audience and credence to your 5-year old would show that you are the one who is the nutcase  hahahahaha).

Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔

Possibly your orders are too narrowly spread apart if you are trying to buy on dip..

And, sure if your are in a BTC accumulating stage then there is another DCA portion of any reasonable and prudent strategy that should just buy BTC whenever .. and not get too preoccupied if you had happened to buy $200 at $45,500 or buy $200 at $44,800.. ..

In the whole scheme of things the exact place where you bought should not make much if any difference if you have another $200 coming into your discretionary (to be used for BTC) cashflow in the coming week or so.

By the way, I am not sure about from where you are calculating any kind of 10% dippening in our current actual BTC price dynamics.  Even if you had bought BTC near our local top of $48,190 from about 3 days ago, our so far max dippening from today has only gotten down to $44,521 which is around a 7.5% dip from the toppening to the bottomening..  

The so far BTC price dynamics (including our current dip status) is NOT even really much of any kind of down volatility to write home to mom about, yet.  right?  

Now if you are talking about the future and wanting to predict that we might get down to a 10% or greater BTC price dippening, then that could well be another story.. but that is not how I read your proclamation of having already had a 10% BTC price dip  (which 10% dips may well have not even happened yet since we started going up from $29k-ish in the past nearly a month since starting this particular UPpity run, no?.. edit: Whoops, I correct myself.. we had about a 12% dip from $42,500 to $37,200 between 7/31 and 8/4.. but that is our only decently-sized dip, so far in our current price run up)
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August 17, 2021, 09:35:12 PM
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Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔
To me you are being victim of the negativity bias, which basically states that given two equal stimulus one positive and one negative of the same magnitude the negative one will be remembered quite more vividly.

It is likely that you have experienced a similar number of events in which the price went up after you fulfilled your order, but you remember the times when the price went down more vividly as no one really likes to lose money even if the drop is small.
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August 17, 2021, 09:45:11 PM



Congrats on your new ink.  Can't say I'm a fan of tattoos in general, and I've gotten to a ripe age without any so far.  I won't say "never" but that's the direction things are going.  With my luck I'd get some beautiful hula dancer tattoo   That takes some courage to get a meme tattoo, and the art is pretty darn good.

That's part of the rationale why this here "dude's" preference would be the henna tattoo, and I would imagine that they hurt less worser, too (not that I am speaking from experience beyond speculative observations).

Even a henna tattoo is a little to "permanent" for me.
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August 17, 2021, 09:53:12 PM

I was with you all the way Zedpastin, until you got to the last sentence.. Holy fucking shit.

Of course, there is no problem with being conservative and keeping your expectations relatively low (or not too high), but $250k in 10 years is a stretch, but possible..   In 10 years, $20million is a stretch, but possible.. $250k is pretty damned conservative.. but surely possible as well.

On a personal level, I do not want to be too presumptuous, so I have no problem at all to plan around something like 6% per year average price appreciation of my BTC investment portfolio.. which would end up with way smaller numbers than $250k in 10 years, but even if I am personally using very conservative numbers to protect my lil selfie.. we should also attempt to be reasonable in terms of the various upside potentials of this particular asset class that may or may not play out, but there are a lot of scenarios that go way above and beyond a conservative 6% per year expectation.. especially when considering ways to plan around bitcoin and maybe even stocking a bit more or something and not locking yourself into conservative thinking - but that would not necessarily mean taking undue risks either.. One of the nice things about bitcoin both historically and even considering current planning is that you do not necessarily need to invest a lot in order to still be prepared for the scenarios of higher BTC performance that may or may not happen (and still get richie way beyond expectations.. already happened to lots of relatively conservative peeps.. no need to mention names, right?).
I am probably being too optimistic but I would rather be too optimistic than pessimistic because there is already enough pessimists here Cheesy Cheesy I joke and maybe my numbers are plucked out of the air and do not have any scientific backing but I can dream. 6% increase per year you say? I can back that I think that gives us more time to get to that financially freedom money as not all of us have the amount of Bitcoin that we need or require for that including me. I have a healthy stock but not enough to have fuck you money that I know is discussed a lot here.

Btw what do you guys define as fuck you money instead of financially free? Out of curiosity Cheesy

just point out this line Can you tell me {$300k to $600k} going to be sure and very fast?
There is no "sure" in Bitcoin. And that's for sure Smiley
Let a man dream Cheesy
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