If so, many of us realize that bitcoin remains a volatile as fuck asset, and some of us proclaim that volatility is close to inevitable in bitcoin, which means that it likely close to one of the ONLY things that you are able to rely upon.. even though not really knowing which direction, so I wonder how you could lock in financial freedom from that $250k price in the event that it were to be a top, rather than a bottom?
Seems to me that would probably need to get into a kind of $1.5 million-ish territory before we might be able to start presuming anything in the range of $250k as a potential bottom-ish price arena.
Good post I agree that only the people that intend on taking their Bitcoin out at 250k would be financially free but then are you free because you took your money out of Bitcoin and put it into a dying fiat currency which will be having a big amount of inflation?
I think if you were to safe guard your investment you would withdraw 50/50 in Bitcoin and fiat. withdrawing 50% of your Bitcoin holdings when it reaches 250k and using that money for a house and to buy assets then retaining the rest in Bitcoin and use that for every day life?
Well, each person is going to have to assess how to allocate their value in bitcoin versus other assets including calculating their various expenses, so if they fuck up their assessment, they may well end up concluding that they had gotten to "fuck you" status by quitting their job and then planning to use their acquired value for their remaining years. would not be a very pretty picture to have the plan play out way less sustainable than anticipated and also to be forced into a kind of poverty because failure/refusal to account for situations that could easily happen (even if you had erroneously assessed such situations as "unforeseeable").
I am not even proclaiming to not pull the fuck you status lever, and for sure as far as assessing BTC value, I am way more in favor of assessing BTC value at projections of possible extreme bottom prices rather than at anticipated spot prices.. and a lot of the rationale for going through such a potentially rigorously conservative assessment of BTC value has to do with its historical high volatility that has no real signs of lessening in any kind of meaningful and sustainable way... at least not yet.. Sure, there can be ways to utilize anticipated high spot prices in order to consider price locations to consider reallocating into other assets/currencies.
The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:
above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
$100k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% odds
$65k to $100k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% odds
$55k to $65k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% odds
$current price to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
down from here - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.
Well well well JJG is turning bearish?
Not a good sign... I feel I'm going to suffer without lambos, hookers and blow for another 4 years? NOT!
I'm
more than ever convinced that we're going to reach a new ATH (and subsequently a blowoff top of $150-450k) this year. Hodl strong brethren!
I don't consider my assessment as bearish..
I did make
a supplemental assessment and explanation attempt, but I don't consider my assessment to be bearish at all in terms of saying that the odds are 72/28 that we get above $48k in the remainder of this particular cycle (it may be too bullish if you really think about it.. but whatever, that is my current seemingly lame-ass assessment).. and of course, various gradients of that depending on how for you go..
By the way serveria, what's your "more than ever convinced confidence level in regards to your BIG ass range of $150k to $450k for this year? Are you able to break that into smaller sections.. because as soon as the price gets into $150k, you could proclaim to have been correct, but is that really fair if it were to end up being a 1 hour spike in terms of including $450k in such same window? Furthermore, "this year" oh my!!!!!!! Could this cycle and possible "blow off top" potentially drag out into happening in 2022?
Are your above sorcery-wannabe-like proclamations (vague as they may be? hahahahaha) invalidated as soon as January 1 comes and if we have not either reached your crystal ball range or we might not have even reached $64,895 by January 1. Would that be possible in terms of keeping an anticipated bull thesis intact?
asking for a friend.
Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.
weeeee
Oh gawd...
Look at what turd twat is back.. hoping that he might be right some day if he keeps up predicting.. sooner or later, no?
Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.
weeeee
Four digits are still great for those who managed to invest early! You need to try harder to scare the early adopters... say double digits? That's a lot scarier but still 100+% profit for some...
Call me a scaredy-cat if you must.
I would be considerably scared of 4 digits
and really even more scared of 3 digits.. would have to be some serious negative reasons for something like that to happen or even get close to happening...
Gosh even getting below $20k may well negate this particular bull run (depending upon if it were a spike down or not), and then getting below $14k.. especially if it were to be sustainable for anything beyond a few weeks would question even the BTC price in a bear market... in my current thinking on the extreme possible bottoms.
Billy the twat no coiner does not scare me because there is nothing in his proclamations besides his happening to have a wish and his stating his wish out loud on a public thread for the rest of us to hear (perhaps for effect)..... it's like a 5-year old who can kind of reason. and then the 5-year old proclaims that something may or may not happen, yet you are not going to give much credence at all to your 5-year old or even give them any kind of audience, unless s/he actually has some special abilities that are not typically in the capacities of 99% of normie 5-year olds (or your giving audience and credence to your 5-year old would show that you are the one who is the nutcase hahahahaha).
Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔
Possibly your orders are too narrowly spread apart if you are trying to buy on dip..
And, sure if your are in a BTC accumulating stage then there is another DCA portion of any reasonable and prudent strategy that should just buy BTC whenever .. and not get too preoccupied if you had happened to buy $200 at $45,500 or buy $200 at $44,800.. ..
In the whole scheme of things the exact place where you bought should
not make much if any difference if you have another $200 coming into your discretionary (to be used for BTC) cashflow in the coming week or so.
By the way, I am not sure about from where you are calculating any kind of 10% dippening in our current actual BTC price dynamics. Even if you had bought BTC near our local top of $48,190 from about 3 days ago, our so far max dippening from today has only gotten down to $44,521 which is around a 7.5% dip from the toppening to the bottomening..
The so far BTC price dynamics (including our current dip status) is NOT even really much of any kind of down volatility to write home to mom about, yet. right?
Now if you are talking about the future and wanting to predict that we might get down to a 10% or greater BTC price dippening, then that could well be another story.. but that is not how I read your proclamation of having already had a 10% BTC price dip (which 10% dips may well have not even happened yet since we started going up from $29k-ish in the past nearly a month since starting this particular UPpity run, no?..
edit: Whoops, I correct myself.. we had about a 12% dip from $42,500 to $37,200 between 7/31 and 8/4.. but that is our only decently-sized dip, so far in our current price run up)
Poll
