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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.9%)
7/28 - 11 (10.1%)
8/4 - 16 (14.7%)
8/11 - 7 (6.4%)
8/18 - 6 (5.5%)
8/25 - 8 (7.3%)
After August - 60 (55%)
Total Voters: 109

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26470646 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
cAPSLOCK
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September 02, 2021, 11:55:38 PM
Last edit: September 03, 2021, 05:22:41 PM by cAPSLOCK
Merited by JayJuanGee (3), Arriemoller (1)

Blockstream Jade initial review.

TLDR: Meh+, but will a lot of potential if they choose to really build it out.  For people who want a bitcoin only wallet there is little reason now to get this rather than a Coldcard, or Trezor w/ BTC only firmware.  Really, currently Price is the only advantage.  But in time air-gapped tx signing, and Liquid use may also be a good use. The current BIGGEST omission is no BIP39 passphrease support (!?!??!)

So I am sitting here on a live Arch linux (EndeavorOS) desktop using GParted to move my RaspiBlitz data drive from a 500G SSD to a 1T SSD.  I find myself wishing I had sprung for the 2T SSD because sitting here waiting for the damn data to copy over, while still not knowing if this is going to even work, and knowing I will just have to do it again in a few years?  Well... let's just say hooray small blocks.  And I need something to do in the meantime, so I will write my impressions of the Blockstream Jade hardware wallet.

Size and form factor  8/10
 It is pretty close to two Ledgers.  It's the same length and width, but 2x as deep basically.  So it's a decent size. Small but usable.  And does not take up tons of room in your pocket.  It is designed to be used in landscape mode holding it longways like the Ledger. The screen is much bigger though... about the same size as the Trezor's screen, but is also full color, which is unimportant to me, but a nice touch.  It feels decent.  It has (potentially) three controls with 5 switches.  A power button, and rocker dial that can also be depressed, and a main button on the face.  Not sure why they have all these buttons.  They are not using them yet.

Setup 6/10
 This was annoying.  I chose to use a private key that I produced with coinflips ($4 worth of quarters x 16 shake/flips) and a python script I wrote to convert this to the 24 word mnemonic. When you first turn it on it wants to either produce a seed phrase (probably the better choice) or "restore" one.  I chose the latter and took the time to input it.  The method is reasonable and works fairly well.  You enter the 24 words in using the rocker and main button and the alphabet laid out A-Z on the screen.  It eliminates the letters you do not need based on what you have entered so far, and also presents you with a word list once there are as many of those as remaining letters (or less).  This process is decent on this device, aside from the fact I found the rocker switch to be a little fiddly.  Sometimes I had to rock it a couple times to get it to respond.  That made the process annoying slightly.

Then once I had entered in ALL TWENTYFOUR WORDS it asked to be plugged into a device that had GREEN installed.  I chose to be troublesome and plugged it into my phone. Wink  It WORKED!

But... Sad

It then decided to update the firmware... and guess what... after updating the firmware it restarted and was blank again! *Sigh* OK AGAIN with the 24 words and the fiddly rocker switch.

On the second try the device froze during the entry of word 17.  I waited.  I hoped. I said a little prayer.  I said "whassa whassa whassssup"?  I told it I thought Adam Back is Satoshi.  But I don't think that, and I guess it knew because in the end I just had to hold the power button down and START ALL OVER AGAIN.  FUCK.  

On the third try I finally got the seed in again and connected it to my phone with a USB cable (Not the one that came with it which is a USB A to USB C cable as you would expect... but I have a C->C cable and used that... worked fine).  Thank GOD.


Use with phone 6/10
: Then I was able to get Green loaded on my phone and it saw the device.  But it was very spotty working with Green on the phone.  It crashed a few times, and the connection was not always working.  But when it DID work it seemed solid. I went into both BTC and L-BTC wallets and did some transactions. I may regret the BTC transaction of ~50k sats since fees might go too high to use that in the future. I might wait for a lull to send them back.  Green is decent, but it's a little unituative switching back and forth between liquid and bitcoin wallets.

Use with Computer TBD : When I have some time after I upgrade this SDD I will review this part.  Hopefully it's a little stronger.

Bluetooth 6/10
:  I found this to be very spotty.  Most times it would not connect. But once it did it kept the connection and worked well.  But is this a security risk?  Thining it through I figure it probably is.  But would require an sophisticated  attacker in fairly close proximity.  And it can be turned off.

Cable connection 9/10:  This worked almost every time but Green did crash once?

PIN 9/10
The device uses a PIN.  It used a 6 character pin like Green does. Other than the slightly fiddly rocker, works fine.

Use with Specter TBD: The only independent wallet that supports it so far that I know of.  I will also review later.

LACK OF BIP39 PASSPHRASE 0/10
: What the ACTUAL feck?  Isn't blockstream founded by an OG Cypherpunk?  Why the HELL would they release this thing without implementing one of the most important developments of BIP39, and for that matter ANY BIP?  I would almost rather have the passphrase but not HD addresses.  At least liquid has confidential transactions.  This is a ridiculous omission.  And if they do not implement it, I will not use this device much at all.  I cannot decide if I would rather a Ledger like implementation ,or a Trezor like one.  But it HAS to happen.

Camera 5/10: This is a great feature. But they have not built this out much yet either.  It allowed me to use the camera for entering the seed words.  And I turned it on.  It produces a fuzzy B/W image on the screen.  We will see how it workd on QR codes in the future.  But Why do THAT first?  I mean, who has a QR of their seed?  Is there a secure way to even produce this without graph paper? Lol.  But eventually being able to use it to scan QR codes should be nice.  We will have to wait and see.

Value 8/10. At ~$36 it's priced well, and is a lot of *potential* for the money.

Overall: 7/10 I am boosting this overall score because I think it feels like a good little piece of gear, and I am hopeful they actually develop out the missing features.  So I am giving them the benefit of the doubt.

If what you want is a decent BTC only H/W wallet then I would go with a ColdCard currently.  But having that plus liquid is a plus.  And hopefully the missing things come along, and they keep developing it to add more features that matter.  We will see.

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September 03, 2021, 12:01:34 AM


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Plant 1xTree for each Satoshi earned!


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September 03, 2021, 12:22:28 AM
Merited by nutildah (1)

Bitconnect, finally in the news. Those around in 2017 will remember that lending coin that wrecked many, so to say.



https://beincrypto.com/sec-lawsuit-bitconnect-founder-role-crypto-fraud/




That time when it's cold outside and u'r sitting with a hot cocoa mug in your hand, watching the slow rain outside and listening to this masterpiece:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qwaiJFV1Zg
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September 03, 2021, 12:42:44 AM

For us coiners, this may be something like maybe one of the stablecoins, if you don't like the cash sitting in your fiat bank account.

Fuck stable coins.

Oh gawd..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  you are going there?  I mean.. you went there?

I went there for you, so you don't have to. Tongue

I understand your complete hatred for all shitcoins (stablecoins included), but I got this from listening to mostly bitcoin podcasts, like "What Bitcoin Did" and Willy Woo.. If you are keeping fiat in a bank account, or on an exchange, then it's not very much different than keeping stablecoins. At least, with stablecoins, you control the private keys until you need to spend it and can pick which exchange to use it on, and what bank to withdraw the fiat to.

Since we are not trading, the allocation to shitcoins like the US dollar, or the similarly priced USDC, DAI, or whatever stablecoin is going to be relatively small compared to your bitcoin holdings, all of which can remain in cold storage until the minute you need to cash it out. A very few people actually keep cold cash (as in paper bills) in their homes, that's usually not a good idea unless you have specific reasons.
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September 03, 2021, 12:56:03 AM

So I am sitting here on a live Arch linux (EndeavorOS) desktop using GParted to move my RaspiBlitz data drive from a 500G SSD to a 1T SSD.  I find myself wishing I had sprung for the 2T SSD because sitting here waiting for the damn data to copy over, while still not knowing if this is going to even work, and knowing I will just have to do it again in a few years?  Well... let's just say hooray small blocks.

The blockchain grows about 50G per year, so you're good for another 10 years. 1T sounds like the right choice.
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September 03, 2021, 01:01:25 AM


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September 03, 2021, 01:21:17 AM

When I feel that the world has abandoned me, I always glance to bitcoin, and then I realize that Bitcoin is really just hope for the entire universe. Regardless of human differences, it stays seductive.

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September 03, 2021, 01:36:48 AM

$50K is being such a tease right now.
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September 03, 2021, 01:43:43 AM
Merited by Dragonfund (1)

For us coiners, this may be something like maybe one of the stablecoins, if you don't like the cash sitting in your fiat bank account.

Fuck stable coins.

Oh gawd..  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes  you are going there?  I mean.. you went there?

I went there for you, so you don't have to. Tongue

I understand your complete hatred for all shitcoins (stablecoins included), but I got this from listening to mostly bitcoin podcasts, like "What Bitcoin Did" and Willy Woo.. If you are keeping fiat in a bank account, or on an exchange, then it's not very much different than keeping stablecoins. At least, with stablecoins, you control the private keys until you need to spend it and can pick which exchange to use it on, and what bank to withdraw the fiat to.

Since we are not trading, the allocation to shitcoins like the US dollar, or the similarly priced USDC, DAI, or whatever stablecoin is going to be relatively small compared to your bitcoin holdings, all of which can remain in cold storage until the minute you need to cash it out. A very few people actually keep cold cash (as in paper bills) in their homes, that's usually not a good idea unless you have specific reasons.

Likely my "hatred" is related to relevance of devolving into that bullshit within this thread, and you seem to act like it is some inevitable topic that needs to be brought up here... I surely question that kind of devolving into comparing and contrasting various shitcoins or stable coins rather than some potential utility that might exist in terms of portfolio management.. starting to deviate from the topic if getting into some of those areas, no?   

Seems that we had been talking about how to valuate your BTC in terms of figuring out whether you might have reached Fuck you status yet, so seems to be getting into a bit of a stretch to be needing to get into topics about shitcoins and/or stable coin explorations even if you might hold some of them or have inclinations to talk about them at every opportunity that you can get because you believe them to be so damned relevant and important in your thinking about the world and your portfolio management that is likely also distracted in terms of its understanding of the importance of the role of BTC therein..

Maybe I could go back to the hypothetical current guy that has more than 230 BTC currently?  Such guy would be clearly above current entry-level fuck-you status levels by a considerable amount, which we could round off our entry level FU status to being around 143 BTC (that is $2 million / $14k - which is the current 208-week moving average which is the most conservative of reasonable measurements of BTC bottoms). 

I had already mentioned that if that particular guy had around 200 BTC that he just had on the side that was in cold storage or something, then he could have 30 BTC that he would just consider his liquid funds for the next 4 years and withdrawing from them around $100k per year and it might not even matter what he does with such 30 BTC (in terms of how he is holding them or shaving off his yearly value whether every 2 weeks, monthly quarterly annually, or he has some other system of how he is playing around with such value.. lots of variations in that for that particular guy)..

So if such hypothetical guy keeps some of that 30 BTC value in BTC or various other ways in terms of managing the 30 BTC value, but it might be a bit crazy to keep all 30 BTC in only one form such as having it in cash.. but might be less crazy to keep in bitcoin.. but sure, the guy could play around with allocations within that 30 BTC that is part of his liquid funds for the next 4 years and I suppose there are even scenarios, that he might end up only spending half of such funds over the next 4 years (even though he has the whole 30 BTC as being available), then he would just fold the 15 BTC into his budget for the next 4 years or whatever he wants to do.  Such guy might not care if he happens to spend all of the 30 BTC or half of it (15 BTC) or some variant between, but he has a round-about idea about how much he is o.k spending in the next 4 years, which is up to 30 BTC. .. and of course, the guy would not be locked into any specific spending plan either, but he could keep assessing along the way including assessing the extent to which the 208-week moving average is moving up every year.. presumably much more than 4% per year and quite likley he could presume more than 12% per year so long as the BTC price stays more than 12% higher than the 208 week moving average - which is a moving target of course, and if our current 208-week moving average is $14k, then currently 12% higher is $15,680, and surely with current BTC spot prices bouncing around between $46k and $50k, we have decent odds that the 208-week moving average is going to continue to appreciate quite smartly in the coming short period.. year or so.. and yeah we can also project out our expectations and watch where the 208-week moving average is as compared to the current spot price on a regular basis.. seems that the Mayer multiple does something like that.. but the Mayer multiple uses the 200-day moving average rather than the 208-week moving average, so the 208-week moving average would be way more conservative, too (not reinventing the wheel here exactly, either). 

Anyhow, it seems to me that you want to get into details regarding if the guy might keep some of those 30 BTC in stable coins and consider that as possibly being something that is relevant to discuss here?   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You are wanting to bring it up, and I don't consider it to be necessary to discuss those kinds of slippery slope matters here, and the guy with fuck you status has quite a few options regarding how to spend his 30 BTC over the next 4 years and the extent that he might want to be saving parts of the 30 BTC to roll back into his spending after the next 4 years plays out.

Even if we were to change our fuck you status guy that is barely into fuck you status and ONLY has 143 BTC, then that guy might ONLY be able to shave off half as much BTC, such as 15 BTC to spend for the next 4 years, and sure, he might have to be more prudent with how he is spending and managing his BTC.. because he is on the lower ends of fuck you status with less of a cushion with which to work.. and sure that guy might be weighing ways to make his whole 15 BTC last.. but maybe just spending only $50k per year rather than $100k per year could resolve the matter, but you are perhaps trying to suggest ways to get your BTC to produce yield or some other risky and perhaps quasi-irrelevant bullshit like that.  So yeah, if the guy wants to spend more than $50k per year for the next 4 years, and he only has 15 BTC to work with, then he might be more desperate in terms of trying to get his BTC to go further, and maybe the easier solution is figuring out how to live within his means rather than employing too much risk, but guys are going to come to differing decisions about wanting to employ more risk and which other areas they might explore outside of BTC and the dollar. 

The guy with 143BTC might also choose to shave off 30 BTC for the next 4 years to be able to have a $100k per year budget, and sure that guy also has less cushion to work with and might be trying to push his limits too much and could cause himself to employ shitty methods because his cushion is not as good.

 I am not quite sure where you are wanting to go with your getting into the further topics that might even be something that is all over the place in terms of individuality but also seems to be getting into irrelevant areas that get us off of BTC as a topic and into these various other products (shitcoins/stablecoins)...  AmInotrite?  Does our Fuck you guy have 15 BTC to spend over the next 4 years with a budget of $50k per year or does he have 30BTC to spend and a budget of $100k per year, or is there some other variant of a guy's situation that you would want to explore in order to get into those seemingly off-topic areas?  And how big is his stash?  is it entry level 143 BTC or does he have more of a cushion such as the 230 BTC guy?  Where do you want to go?  and why the fuck do we need to talk about shitcoins/stable coins in order to talk about how our BTC guy might manage his funds?  unless we are trying to talk about a guy who has not quite figured out how to get into fuck you status so he is barely living on the edge of wannabe fuck you status but has not quite made it yet so therefore he believes that he needs to bring shitcoins/stable coins into his calculation for a supposed (imaginary) better way of earning money off his bitcoins blah blah blah.. when if he has really reached fuck you status he does not need to worry about that baloney of earning yield blah blah blah.. because bitcoin is already designed to pump forever, amiNOTrite?
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September 03, 2021, 02:01:26 AM


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September 03, 2021, 02:29:09 AM

$50K is being such a tease right now.
What's your country coordinated Universal Time (UTC)?
Bitcoin has been trading around $48k and $49k range, I am curious where you got $50k.
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September 03, 2021, 02:41:12 AM

I just hope lightning will spread it's wings. If not exactly lightning, then anything, but not what we have now.

EVERY interaction with an old system tells me how much f-ed up it is (in US).
All financial intermediaries are trying to fleece you as much as possible, banks are not paying any interest but want exorbitant credit rates (on credit cards).
I always pay credit cards on time so there are no fees, but, come on.

Anecdote: I have a disabled relative who lives in a rented apartment.
Before, the apartment management took cash, then only check, now they decided to link with some sleazy payment management company that..listen to this...charges money for payment from a bank account.
Is you want to pay with cc-a $30 fee for making a payment, i kid you not. What an outrage, especially since they "prey" on those who already have limited funds (in this case a disabled person).

TL;DR Financial services consumed american capitalism to a large degree.
Now it is ether bitcoin or we WILL go bust and relatively soon.
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September 03, 2021, 02:56:19 AM

$50K is being such a tease right now.
What's your country coordinated Universal Time (UTC)?
Bitcoin has been trading around $48k and $49k range, I am curious where you got $50k.

Huh?

It was at $50390 USD per bitcoin a little after 14:00 UTC at Bitstamp.
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September 03, 2021, 03:01:34 AM


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September 03, 2021, 04:01:25 AM


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September 03, 2021, 04:30:48 AM

$50K is being such a tease right now.
What's your country coordinated Universal Time (UTC)?
Bitcoin has been trading around $48k and $49k range, I am curious where you got $50k.

Huh?

It was at $50390 USD per bitcoin a little after 14:00 UTC at Bitstamp.

Exactamente..

Even if Chartbuddy does not know about $50,390, he surely knows about supra $50k
 


Been there done that.  We are just watching for the local top of $50,562 to be broken..... which is a top from more than a week ago...

Go bitcoin.. go .. go .. go...



Did I say "go?"


Yes I did.



Go.



Not that I am desperate or anything like that, but just seems that our lil fiend wants to go up anyhow, so does not hurt to do a wee bit of cheering..


Go bitcoin.. go .. go .. go...
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September 03, 2021, 04:37:33 AM

it is propane or gas.  Soooo propane stores for as long as 18 months.

Propane:



It ain't expiring in a hurry.

Natural gas is OK as long as the gas company is providing it.
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September 03, 2021, 04:42:45 AM

#dyor
4h


D

#stronghands
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September 03, 2021, 05:00:58 AM

gasoline sucks as it does not store well if I had my way you would see almost no gas.

I think this depends on the gas. I had ethanol-free gas I kept in my basement for 5 years and it ran like fresh when I dug it out. I've also had ethanol gas that was unusable after a season.



The blockchain grows about 50G per year, so you're good for another 10 years. 1T sounds like the right choice.

I agree. SSDs have a sweet spot and 1T is about where it is right now unless you have specific needs. I've never found upgrading to be much of a pain, particularly for data drives. In fact, keeping system drives as small as possible helps keep upgrades snappy.



$50K is being such a tease right now.

Keeping me from my comfy bed...



Re: Propane vs gas. You need 1.38 times as much propane as gasoline for the same energy by volume (assuming liquid propane) and for 20lbs of propane, the container weighs about as much as the fuel it contains
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