Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[eddie13]

In any event, your squiggly lines deny the presence of that kind of BTC price dynamics involving a $55k to $80k deadman's zone.. even into the coming 3-4 months when you believe this challenge to a new ATH is going to fail.

<...>

**In case you don't know I am referring to: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.

I agreed to this point because bitcoin has already recovered from the old point but did not break out also i don't know but wait 3-4 months 
 like to be $80k is storng zone.. 

My sense of a possible deadman's zone building is a wee bit of a SOMA proclamation that attempts to recognize, appreciate and account for historical ways that BTC has behaved in regards to its previous ATHs - the breaking through portion. 

Maybe we could just look at:

early 2013 when BTC broke past $32, it went to $263-ish,
 
late 2013 when BTC broke past $263, it went to $1,163-ish,

early 2017 when BTC broke past $1,163, it went to the mid-$2ks,

late 2020 when BTC broke past $20k, it went to the upper $30ks

There might be some other examples that are not even so much about breaking above previous ATH, but when BTC prices seem to have some high levels of being held down, then the price catches up to where it should have gone.. so the correction down to upper $20ks/lower $30ks is starting to feel like it may well have been one of those periods of overexuberant correction... just a hunch.. just a hunch..

And sure, ImThour could end up being correct, and bitcoin shirks off its old overexuberant bounce backs after going through what seemed to have been overexcuberant corrections.. perhaps? perhaps?

maybe the odds of a $55k to $80k deadman zone are only 30% to 40%, but still that would be pretty high from my perspective... even 20% odds are not really bad, if you are a bitcoin pessimist (aka nocoiner, precoiner) and you have $100k that you have invested in a variety of nonbitcoin investments, and if you could appreciate what I am saying about odds of BTC UPpity performance - including the possible existence of such deadman's zone between $55k and $80k, it might do you some hedging (and even investment portfolio good) to actually put 1% to 10% (that would be anywhere between $1k to $10k out of your $100k investment portfolio) into bitcoin.. merely based on those kinds of deadman's zone probabilities and of course, we also have the existence of the other currently valid BTC price prediction models that also lead some credibility and decent probabilities to both bitcoin's investment thesis but also likely ongoing UPpity BTC price pressures - already mentioned as: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects.... and again justifying the guy with $100k of investments to put somewhere between $1k and $10k of his investment portfolio into bitcoin based on those kinds of persistent underlying aspects of bitcoin.

Unbiased Price Prediction on the basis of Previous Chart Action

Bullish in the Long run.

...

Not gonna read that a lot and not sure how you have that much time to write something like that in a post, kudos lmao.

In other words, you got nuttin.

You

1) refuse to read the text of a post that attempts to directly address points raised by your squiggly lines and words of your post.

and 
2) denigrate my post by asserting that it is too long to read

Hard to treat you seriously in such circumstances.

Also, you wanna make a bet on your price prediction? (as you asked me to do) Nah, right?

I am not making any prediction you diptwat.  I am bringing questions to your prediction, and asserting that you are failing refusing to account for context including current BTC price prediction models.

Instead of explaining why you choose such context and asserted it to be unbiased
or
explaining why you failed and refuse to account for currently valid BTC price prediction models

You mischaracterize my criticism of your stupid-ass lame post as a prediction and you double down on your dumbassedness.

I don't wanna sound negative but the thing is there are opinions.

Nothing wrong with having opinions.  I was largely ONLY asking to 'splain ur lil selfie a wee bit more, including your proclamation of supposed "unbiasness."

And if you judge people by opinions, you aren't doing it right.

I was not judging you.  I was judging your post; however, you subsequent lameass and defensive post is causing me to consider that I may way need to judge you as either being retarded or disingenuine in your interaction regarding your prediction.. including your defensiveness and diversions.

Sooo...
What do you figure the chances of Bitcoin ever going below $50k again after January?
I think like 2%..

I think the risk/reward between now and the end of the year is... Outrageous..

Selling now? Hahahahahaha.. No..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

2 different pic’s of the same location

Perfect location where El D. Takes his quiet times and while BTC doing it’s thing….

So peaceful in here ….

But where is it….

I fully expect homer to see a fin in that river, identify the mutated variant of the color scheme on its scales and nail your exact location by the reflections off said scales!

My Guess is middle earth.



Edit:
Nice get fillippone!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

.....
I just looked in my directory trying to figure out if I could call "bitcoin" directly, and since I did not find a listing, I looked under king daddy, honey badger, satoshi nakamoto, and lillie fiend.. still no luck.  

Personally, I cannot find any way to get in touch with bitcoin or any of the pseudonyms that I can think of to make a request for UPpity.  

Probably there is someone better connected than me.. perhaps?  perhaps?  

....

Perhaps your lil selfie should make a callening to the BBB?   (Better Bitcoin Bureau).....Surely?

Great idea sirazmuth.

You may well want to make a song, poem or coin about our mutual quest: "searching for bitcoin"  - or perhaps some other fitting title.. but you know that nearly no matter what you do (unless you happen to be spoiled brat homer), you are going to get criticized for it.    

[edited out]

Sooo...
What do you figure the chances of Bitcoin ever going below $50k again after January?
I think like 2%..

I think the risk/reward between now and the end of the year is... Outrageous..

Selling now? Hahahahahaha.. No..

It's likely to be way higher than 2% - absent certain scenarios playing out.. (like BTC going to supra $350k in that timeline and also in that regard, it is going to take a while for either the 208-week moving average or even the higher 104-week to get above $50k.. gosh will either of them be over $50k by February 2022..? perhaps the 104-week moving average will get to higher than $50k by February 2022.. but high doubts about the 208-week moving average to get to those kinds of BTC price thresholds within that timeline.

In other words, how can we have much if any clue about attempting to assign a probability value to the next leg, if we do not know how the preceding leg plays out... and how far and how fast (including how many coins are traded) affects how the 208-week moving average and the 104-week moving averages gravitate UP to higher and higher prices (bottom prices).

I had already made various probability assignments regarding what I had thought that the tops of various upside possibilities could be for this cycle  (references to a couple of those threads of thoughts about possible upside scenarios here 1 and here 2), but I also had not put a specific timeline on when the top of this cycle would be reached.... except for asserting that I thought that the cycle could play out anytime between this quarter and the third quarter of 2022.. of course, the more aspects of price that you attempt to assign, whether amount of top or when it is likely to happen creates lower and lower levels of probabilities of certainty .. so I have some troubles attempting to be too specific.. even though I do not tend to have problems with others who seem to be overly specific, and I have even more problems if they want to argue about being certain about their supposed specific scenarios.

Once one of the scenarios plays out (in terms of BTC price moves in the next 4-5 months) then we can be more realistic in assigning probabilities to various downsides scenarios.  Of course, right now as I type this post, our extreme bottoms (for this particular time) are still something like $22,800 (based on 104-week moving average) if presuming a bull market and something like $15,200 (based on 208-week moving average)if presuming a bear market.. so I am not even really seeing either of those bottom numbers crossing over $50k soon.. the bottom numbers move up relatively slowly, and over course, each of those bottom number indicators move up in more steep curves when the actual BTC price goes higher and goes up with volume and is sustained UP.  They are both lagging indicators, but seem to be pretty damned good when trying to assess where extreme BTC price bottoms are currently (as typing) or where BTC price bottoms might realistically be going in the future - whether projecting out 4-5 months or even attempting to project bottoms a year to 4 years out from now.

[El duderino_]

anoniem foto versturen

4km from where I was

This is a touristic place …

 There are so many beautiful places that most of us would never see.  I honestly appreciate the photos you share.  

Thx xhomerx and indeed there are a lot of beautiful places, even in Belgium Ardennes we have some very very nice green spots...

[Biodom]

Nothing to say about bitcoin apart from two factoids:
1. Something is not right in Strike (J. Mallers) and El Salvador cooperation.
2. We are getting close to 40% dominance (coming down from 72 on Jan 2).
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/

Some might find it insignificant, but to me it either a turn around within 5 points or a multi-polar (multichain ) world where PTB would be gunning their "favorite" chains to ridiculous levels from time to time and bitcoin settles at where gold settled (15% of the stock market, roughly). A big player (and bigger than any other), but not a majority (>50%) chain.

[Biodom]

@jjg...I suspend my assertion that you are a bot.
Clearly, just a nincompoop humanoid.
This would be too difficult to program, maybe.

[JayJuanGee]

Nothing to say about bitcoin apart from two factoids:
1. Something is not right in Strike (J. Mallers) and El Salvador cooperation.
2. We are getting close to 40% dominance (coming down from 72 on Jan 2).
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/

Some might find it insignificant, but to me it either a turn around within 5 points or a multi-polar (multichain ) world where PTB would be gunning their "favorite" chains to ridiculous levels from time to time and bitcoin settles at where gold settled (15% of the stock market, roughly). A big player (and bigger than any other), but not a majority (>50%) chain.

Oh gawd.. you come out with some weird shit, sometimes... which likely continues to show why you fail/refuse to adequately invest in bitcoin currently, and likely helps to explain why you have also historically failed/refuse to adequately invest in bitcoin...

 



and partly explains why you be so whiney butthurt grumpening so much of dee time.

 

@jjg...I suspend my assertion that you are a bot.
Clearly, just a nincompoop humanoid.
This would be too difficult to program, maybe.

I am glad that you are capable of changing your mind maybe sometimes based on maybe new facts that you might perceive.
 

 

[Biodom]

Alts ate bitcoin's lunch for the last 9 mo and now getting to eat our dinner.
That's the main lesson vis-à-vis bitcoin in 2021 (so far).

If you forfeited investment in good alts, you lost a big chunk of this bull appreciation.
I know a couple (of mid and large cap) which did 100X in 2021 alone.
That's life-changing numbers if you were aggressive enough and took profits about now or in May (for some).

Pantera's Capital D. Morehead was right about this-kudos to him.
Maybe I should invest some in his projects...perhaps, not now, but during the bear phase when prices would be lower.

However, if we will continue to meager at 46-50K until the end of September, I might consider buying Dec or March out of the money call options on btc or maybe even a bit of a leveraged bet instead (not 80X, of course).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[vapourminer]

Selling now? Hahahahahaha.. No..

sell? lmao hell no and the only reason i stopped buying atm is in case it goes down further i can grab me some moar corn even cheaper.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[kellrobinson]

Pale blue trace = 100 week geometric mean of bitcoin’s price


Slide the geomean 150 weeks up its trend line


Performing a mean is similar in principle to integration, which puts you a quarter cycle out of phase. Sliding the geomean three quarters of a cycle (a little less than three years) puts it back in phase and gives you a rough extrapolation of support for bitcoin price’s historic response to the halvings, which follows a step function.



zooming in, projected support

[JayJuanGee]

Alts ate bitcoin's lunch for the the last 9 mo and now getting to eat our dinner.
That's the main lesson vis-à-vis bitcoin in 2021 (so far).

Yes.. of course. Showing your dweebness and inability to stay on topic.

If you forfeited investment in good alts, you lost a big chunk of this bull appreciation.

You are likely close to retarded.. .or at least showing it.

Any investment into any asset needs to account for upside and downside potential.  The mere fact that some risky pump and dump scams happen to outperform bitcoin on some short-terms scale selected by uie-pooie does not cause them to be a good (or better than bitcoin) investment.

I know a couple (of mid and large cap) which did 100X in 2021 alone.
That's life-changing numbers if you were aggressive enough and took profits about now or in May (for some).

Is that what you did?  Is that why you are inadequately or under-allocated to bitcoin, relatively speaking?

Pantera's Capital D. Morehead was right about this-kudos to him.
Maybe I should invest some in his projects...perhaps, not now, but during the bear phase when prices would be lower.

Maybe you should take your brainstormening unresolved ponderenings to some other thread where they might be potentially quasi-relevant?

However, if we will continue to meager at 46-50K until the end of September, I might consider buying Dec or March out of the money call options on btc or maybe even a bit of a leveraged bet instead (not 80X, of course).

You sound a wee bit distracted, but whatever, you do you.

Selling now? Hahahahahaha.. No..

sell? lmao hell no and the only reason i stopped buying atm is in case it goes down further i can grab me some moar corn even cheaper.

None of us longer timers should be completely out of fiat - or at least if we might be ready, willing and able to attempt to play the BIGGER BTC price swings.

Yet, we know some guys (and gal) who are even worried about attempting to play BIGGER BTC price swings.. so I am not going to personally fault them for that... especially if they are already pretty decently allocated in BTC (possibly over-allocated too, if there could be such a thing?  hahahahaha)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Q: can @jjg get moar stupenings per sq meter of the posting space?
A: yes, he/she can

Someone is consumed by emotions..unable to recognize a simple fact that bitcoin returns THIS year suck big time, but it might change starting in October.
Dominance decline (with no reversal) surely indicates a multi polar world where bitcoin is just one big actor.
As long as bitcoin stays above 50%, there is always a chance that other projects functionality would be folded into bitcoin.
At 40%-still a small chance, at 35% almost no chance and at 30%-no chance.

It is what it is, and I still have much more than 40.7% allocated to bitcoin (more like slightly below 60%) so you can call me "overweight" in bitcoin, but I am not going to sit idly twisting my thumbs and doing retarded sell outs-sell ins (in and out of fiat) which some people here are proposing.
In fact, @jjg probably cost many millions in lost opportunity to those who listened to his/her diatribes in the last 9-10 mo or so.

If all alts suddenly collapse, that would be even better still since the majority of my cryptocurrencies (or maybe you like to call them "virtual currencies", lol) are in bitcoin and my cost in btc and alts (aka "shitcoins") is now below ZERO. I am playing essentially with the house money....for the win.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Soon-ish HODLsleep

Imo the time to crack the 50k nut again has arrived ….

[sirazimuth]

.....

From Google:

Only thing missing is those happy family type folks gathering up the wild fruit in a basket in the foreground with a "GODS KINGDOM" splashed across the bottom.

Btw, did I tell you wo bros I subscribe to "The Watchtower" magazine?*  Not sure if they accept bitcoin in heaven however.....

GO BITCOIN




*I didn't? Oh ok, well that's because I don't.....but yawl probably guessed that already...