Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Peter R]

Speaking of Karpeles, it occurred to me that MtGOX not only was the largest exchange outside China, but may also have been the largest bitcoin-related enterprise ever (with more than 500 M$ in nominal assets, not considering the theft).  Is that correct?

Probably.  

Interesting comparison (numbers are approximate):

MTGox at bankruptcy

Liabilities=~$500 M
Assets    =~$150 M  (after 200 kBTC were found)
===============================
Shortfall =  $350 M

Bitcoin money supply: 12,000,000 x $560 = $6,700 M

Shortfall / Money Supply = 350 / 6700 = 5.2%


Lehman Brother's at bankruptcy

Liabilities = $768 B
Assets    =  $639 B
===============================
Shortfall =  $129 B

USD M2 money supply: $11,000 B

Shortfall / Money Supply = 129 / 11000 = 1.2%


I wonder if the USD financial system would be more or less robust to a failure of equivalent size to MTGox.

[Walsoraj]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

[chessnut]

for the last 15 Hours on huobi a bot has been controlling the spread from 3479 downwrds. very creepy. I couldnt guess what it's doing.

[JorgeStolfi]

Of course, you can still stuff the paper ballots but it's a lot harder.

Hybrid paper/digital seems safer than both; successful fraud requires attacking both sides at very different times and with very different methods.

Preventing ballot stuffing in paper-only systems is not trivial but is doable.  Some simple material things help, like translucent ballot boxes and ballots countersigned on the spot by the Table officer; but the most important thing is to keep the ballot box under many critical eyes, all the time, until the box is opened and votes are counted.

The main advantage of paper-only systems is that everyone can understand the risks and apply the necessary security precautions; people know what to watch for, just by common sense.  For digital and hybrid systems, only few people among the public understand the risks, and even fewer (or none) can do anything about them on election day.

The puzzling thing is why people are so obsessed at "improving" an activity that occurs only once every few months at most, and need not take more than half an hour -- much less than eating an hamburger, or the average urban commuting trip.  Brazil's 400,000 electronic voting machines collect at most 400 votes each during 8 hours every 2 years, and typically need to be replaced after 10 years -- that is, each machine gets discarded after 40 hours of use and collecting less than 2000 votes.  The machine itself costs only ~300$, but  storing, transporting, checking and loading the software into it, at every election, costs a lot more.  It must be a record for inefficiency...

BTW, I have a couple of stories about internet voting fiascos in Brazil, too. 

[JorgeStolfi]

for the last 15 Hours on huobi a bot has been controlling the spread from 3479 downwrds. very creepy. I couldnt guess what it's doing.

I don't thing they are "controlling the spread", it seems that they have plain stupid bug in their chart data server.

A large number of the "ask" orders (from the current price ~3466 ¥ up to ~3478 ¥) are moved to the "bid" side.  Then, a few seconds later, those same orders are moved back to the "ask" side.  The current price  is not affected; all trades occur near ~3466 ¥, none occurs near ~3478 ¥. This has occurred continuously since Huobi came back online after the DDOS attacks today.  I have pointed this out to the bitcoinwisdom owner, he says it is their bug, not his.

[KeyserSoze]

Actually, Jorge is pretty on the ball here (not surprised at that, it's his field). Of course, you can still stuff the paper ballots but it's a lot harder.

He's obviously knowledgeable about voting systems.

[aminorex]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

[KeyserSoze]

BTW, I have a couple of stories about internet voting fiascos in Brazil, too. 

This is why Brazil should only be involved only when the world needs a good football match, maybe. Leave the important stuff, like crashing the world's economy, to America.

[spooderman]

In less than a year I have spent more than two weeks browsing this forum.

Wow.

[Ivanhoe]

BTW, I have a couple of stories about internet voting fiascos in Brazil, too. 

This is why Brazil should only be involved only when the world needs a good football match, maybe. Leave the important stuff, like crashing the world's economy, to America.

Don't forget the miss Reef contest, Brasil should participate in that ass  ( ) well.

[White Lion]

Interesting article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-23/russia-returns-favor-sees-chinese-yuan-world-reserve-currency

[KeyserSoze]

Just got some inside info price is heading up sharply in the next 48 hours.
Source: my dreams.

[KeyserSoze]

Dollar going bye bye in the next 5 years

Speaking of dreams...

[roslinpl]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..  

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

[KFR]

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

I predict a riot.   

[boumalo]

BRIC nations gonna move to the Yuan as world reserve currency

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-23/russia-returns-favor-sees-chinese-yuan-world-reserve-currency

Dollar going bye bye in the next 5 years

China,  the brics nd the oil producers are supporting the USD less and less and the FED is growing the money supply so the USD will collapse, probably brutally

Right now the talks about a recovery are luring the investors but they will finally stop finding excuses to the bad data that keeps coming and they will capitulate nd understand the crisis never stoped, the FED just delayed the necessary turmoil, it will be more difficult bc it has been delayed

[ShroomsKit]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..  

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

Sure, but with any slightly negative rumour people dump like crazy.

[JayJuanGee]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..  

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant  to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584).  So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy.  Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27...  so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp.  I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow,  every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

 It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... .  My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

[BitChick]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..  

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant  to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584).  So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy.  Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27...  so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp.  I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow,  every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

 It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... .  My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

Will it matter if you bought at $549 or $552 when the price gets to $1000 or more? 

I know for day-traders it can make a difference but for holders it really is not that big of a deal.

I think now is a great time to buy BTW and I just threw some money in for the first time in several weeks.   

[adamstgBit]

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/447836584554266624

^ If this was bullish news the price would've gone up before the news became public.

Tweets are not news.  They are rumors.

Agree ... and we should not just follow every rumor that we hear ... or read..  

As for now... price is upredictable as it was before

When I saw Coinbase was hovering around $557, I thought, oh shit, it is getting down close to my next BTC buy-in price (which is currently meant  to be below $550 - b/c the last time I bought was at $584).  So I was playing around with typing in random quantities of BTC to their site just to allow the BTC prices to reload, and then the box flashed $551; however, my desired quantity of BTC was NOT ready to go or I would have clicked buy.  Then i corrected the proper quantity, and the price reverted to $558.27...  so I did NOT buy.

Sometimes, I would just like to get it over with and to just buy.. so that I do NOT have to think about these kinds of matters anymore , until the price drops to my next buy-in point (which would probably be around $529 - depending upon how long it takes to get there... seems doubtful, though... )... And so sometimes I will buy at a few extra dollars per BTC, just to get the purchase out of the way.

I have found the price on Bitstamp to usually be a few dollars above Coinbase, yet, generally, Coinbase's price does NOT fluctuate as widely as Bitstamp.  I complained to them once about this and accused them of arbitrage.. something like that.... Anyhow,  every once in a while when BTC price is very eradic, then Coinbase will be less than Bitstamp... Go figure!!!

 It would be NICE if Coinbase would allow for the placement of ORDERs, but I suppose that may cause additional technical difficulties for their set-up.

Ok.. so now the Coinbase price is hovering between $552 and $556 while the Bitstamp's hovering between $552 and $548... Seems like, if I were to wait it out, we are going to get down to $549 on Coinbase.. Not sure if I can wait that long... .  My frequent problem, however, is as soon as I click buy, then the price really starts to go down and then I am kicking myself for NOT waiting it out a little longer... Can never tell for sure.. how low will she go??? limbo...land... ?

Will it matter if you bought at $549 or $552 when the price gets to $1000 or more?  

I know for day-traders it can make a difference but for holders it really is not that big of a deal.

I think now is a great time to buy BTW and I just threw some money in for the first time in several weeks.

BitChick is right, BitChick is always right...