Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[gallianooo]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soon^tm..

but what does that mean? 

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I surely have my doubts in regards to this exponential period playing out so similar to the 2013 fractal that you suggest to be relevant here.

Sure, anything can happen, but I am expecting that even though we may well be able to make it through $55k to $80k without much if any resistance (once we get into that price zone), at the same time, I would expect that we will see some resistance before 6 digits.. and yeah, your peak of $200k to $400k does come off as a fairly reasonable price range for a peak.. even though there would not be any kinds of assurances that this peak would necessarily end within such range or even play out in the next 2-3 months, as you also seem to be suggesting as a kind of "given."  In other words, we could have a price peak for this particular cycle that takes many more months to play out, even going as late as the third quarter of 2022.. even though I would expect that the odds for the peak happening sooner rather than later in 2022 (if it were to drag out into 2022)- second quarter more likely than 3rd quarter and 1st quarter more likely than 2nd quarter.

Overall agree. The top of the cycle can be postponed Q1 2022 even I don't really see a top very late in 2022. Except if we don't go so high as expected (I mean like the usual parabolic end of the cycle) and we just go up step by step, slowly. If happened, the down would be probably on the same way, without seing -85%+ (top to bottom, as we saw till now).
BUT i still believe in Halving timing, so anyway the top (fast or not) cannot take so much more times..

PS : Not agree on the 55-80K. If we crush 55K (or  from previous ATH 64K), I don't see much reason to stop at 80K instead of 95-98K for example (just below 100K). Would be "only" a 50% up from previous top. Nothing crazy.

Those are all fair points, even though I have some quibbles with you in regards to downplaying the strength of likelihood that we have future 85%-ish price corrections, and I also will quibble with any kind of implication that you might be making in terms of a vision of possible future BTC price stability, at least in the short term of this cycle or the coming one to two more cycles. 

In other words, even though bitcoin markets have been picking up a lot of financialization products and also a lot of BIGGER investors into bitcoin who are not too likely to be selling their BTC and also providing BTC price support, I doubt that we are going to be able to remove our lil selfies (referring to the bitcoin market) from high levels of ongoing volatility - that still seems somewhat inevitable when in the midst of war.  In other words, do you (or any other regular member here for that matter) really believe that the greatest wealth transfer in history is going to play out without some extreme battles both in the physical space and in the informational space - that ends up reflecting upon BTC price movements (likely extreme, if you had not absorbed the implications that I was attempting)?

I meant that I don't believe to a 85% drop on BTC (from ath) if we already top or if we top at 80 or 100K.. Otherwise meaning we would dip below the 2017 ATH ?! I don't think there is lot of probably of that way. Then if we top at 200K+, why not, we can maybe bottom on the 30-42K+

BTW, we will see in a bit more of 1 week if the worse scenario of PLAN B will hold. When i see the chart.. lol. But we never know with BTC...

[jojo69]

 A handsome, tall black fellow, wearing fashionable yet comfortable clothing approaches you from out of nowhere. A well worn tan cowboy hat adorns his head, suggesting an untold history of experiences and legends yet to be revealed.

 You notice the man is carrying two dull circular metal plates, pocked with spherical indentations and scrapes - Clearly having been punished to their material limits.

 The man holds out the two plates, with his left arm - somehow defying the laws of gravity.

 With his right arm, he tips his hat, and mutters "You are going to need these more than I do right now".

 The dark man turns, and walks off into the western sunset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYtJum5k9V8

[goldkingcoiner]

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soon^tm..

but what does that mean?  

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

Well I am hoping to see a drop to 38k (the golden ratio in the daily fibonacci support levels)  but I would think nowish is the time to buy the dip. 40k is fine too.

[Hueristic]

But where the exchanges – and presumably most block explorers – have no eyes, Chainalysis has set its sights. It “‘scrapes’ the IP addresses of suspicious” users that fall into the honeypot of walletexplorer.com according to the documents.
“Using this dataset we were able to provide law enforcement with meaningful leads related to the IP data associated with an address,” the documents, translated from Italian, say. “It is also possible to conduct a reverse lookup on any known IP address to identify other BTC addresses.”

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/09/21/leaked-slides-show-how-chainalysis-flags-crypto-suspects-for-cops/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !

I believe!!


It is the only avenue for me to escape the rat race..
The greatest lottery tickets I will ever get the chance to own..


It’s either going to zero, and I can say “at least I had the balls to try”..
Or I can say “Fuck you” to the system forever..
Eventually..
One way or the other..

Why does your investment into bitcoin have to play out so extreme?  I understand satoshi's statement about bitcoin being a binary.. but still.. there seems to be a need for some prudence in the approach that any of us decides to take in terms of how to invest into bitcoin.. 

[edited out]

I meant that I don't believe to a 85% drop on BTC (from ath) if we already top or if we top at 80 or 100K.. Otherwise meaning we would dip below the 2017 ATH ?! I don't think there is lot of probably of that way. Then if we top at 200K+, why not, we can maybe bottom on the 30-42K+

I agree with you that higher levels of correction become more feasible in the event that the BTC price runs up exponentially - and become less feasible if the BTC price does not run up exponentially.

I presume that there are pretty decent odds that BTC prices are going to both run up exponentially and correct exponentially for the reasons that I had already stated in regards to both being in a war and wealth redistributions that remain beyond the expectations of the vast majority of folks who do not get bitcoin.  Sure it is not guaranteed, but from my perspective the odds seem quite strong... and by the way my own investment thesis in bitcoin does not rely at all upon such battles and exponential price rises taking place.

BTW, we will see in a bit more of 1 week if the worse scenario of PLAN B will hold. When i see the chart.. lol. But we never know with BTC...

I have commented on this in some of my other posts, and I am not sure if I had mentioned the matter in any of my exchanges with you, gallianooo, but from my perspective it is a big so fucking what whether plan B proclaims that his model would be broken if BTC prices are not sustained within a certain range or below a certain point or reach a certain price point at a certain time...   From my perspective, even Plan B seems to be putting too many expectations that his model will be broken upon certain conditions.

Maybe in some sense i am personally getting irritated by placement of predictive values upon descriptive correlations... and in that regard, I consider that extended deviance from the models expectations would not necessarily break the model but just cause a possible need to shift the axis of the descriptive versus predictive aspects of the model.   

Maybe another source of some of the frustration comes from an expectation that if PlanB's model ends up NOT being correct as written, then that implies doom and gloom for bitcoin, when it does not.  The BTC price may well go way the hell outside of expected parameters of PlanB's model and then either return to the mean or return to some shifted down version of the mean, and that hardly would say anything about bitcoin's fundamentals beyond saying that PlanB needs to shift his curve a weee bit in order to account for what bitcoin actually did rather than what bitcoin was expected to have done in that timeframe.

Getting sick of these dips now. Starting to doubt my confidence about new highs later in the year now  


Edit - Not selling obviously but not feeling particularly bullish atm.

Same here. But rather than not feeling bullish, I am feeling the point to buy the dips is coming soon.

Buying the dip soon^tm..

but what does that mean?  

When?

How much to buy?

Is that the bottom or no?

We will know it when "we" see it, right?  (P.S.,.  we may have just seen it, with our spikening down to $39,573 within the past 30 minutes - coupled with our recovery.. back up to $42k.. perhaps? perhaps)

Well I am hoping to see a drop to 38k (the golden ratio in the daily fibonacci support levels)  but I would think nowish is the time to buy the dip. 40k is fine too.

Fair enough.. we will see how the BTC price plays out in the next 24 hours^tm.

[xhomerx10]

The next full moon will occur on Monday, Sept. 20 at 7:55 p.m. EDT (23:55 UTC), but the moon will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. September's full moon will be the Harvest Moon of 2021, though it is sometimes known as the Corn Moon and has many other nicknames by different cultures.

Is full moon the reason we got a dip? Do we get a pump at the next full moon?

There is a correlation between full moons around short-term reversals in price, due to emotional sentiment I imagine, so is possible that was the final dip. Will have a look and see if there's been a correlation in recent months and post some TA on it if it appears relevant...

Until I see some empirical proof, this whole full moon correlation will seem like untrustworthy, unscientific bs to me. why does it matter how much of the moon is darker in some parts and not others? Its just the reflection of light from the moon as seen from different perspectives.

 During the full and new phases of the moon, the sun and moon are aligned so their gravitational effects are amplified.  At certain times of the year this alignment as well as the proximity of the bodies to earth serve to pull the bitcoin trend line higher and higher towards new ATHs.

[BobLawblaw]

FWIW, doubt we dip so low, but I'm going to ape out at $39.5k and penis smash buy.

[UnDerDoG81]

I am out, gonna let this storm pass and hold through. Was thinking to sell and buy back lower. But usually when I sell it goes up. I spent all my money way too early yesterday. So, fuck it. See ya in the next run up. Might be in a week. Might be in 2 months.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[sirazimuth]

.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYtJum5k9V8

"....as far as thickness goes,  its just bowed a little bit, but...."


Um...That maybe an understatement. lol

[Mpamaegbu]

BTC still respecting the strong support line as indicated with the white horizontal line @40,921.

As long as price continues to respect that "squiggly" white line and doesn't slip beneath it and close there on the Daily TF, I won't consider Bitcoin to be on a bearish run. These screenshots below are the current status, taken a few minutes ago, for 4hrs and daily.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

The next full moon will occur on Monday, Sept. 20 at 7:55 p.m. EDT (23:55 UTC), but the moon will appear full the night before and after its peak to the casual stargazer. September's full moon will be the Harvest Moon of 2021, though it is sometimes known as the Corn Moon and has many other nicknames by different cultures.

Is full moon the reason we got a dip? Do we get a pump at the next full moon?

There is a correlation between full moons around short-term reversals in price, due to emotional sentiment I imagine, so is possible that was the final dip. Will have a look and see if there's been a correlation in recent months and post some TA on it if it appears relevant...

Until I see some empirical proof, this whole full moon correlation will seem like untrustworthy, unscientific bs to me. why does it matter how much of the moon is darker in some parts and not others? Its just the reflection of light from the moon as seen from different perspectives.

 During the full and new phases of the moon, the sun and moon are aligned so their gravitational effects are amplified.  At certain times of the year this alignment as well as the proximity of the bodies to earth serve to pull the bitcoin trend line higher and higher towards new ATHs.

I will always choose to believe you instead of rudimentary physics, buddy. I hope you know that.

[eddie13]

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !

I believe!!


It is the only avenue for me to escape the rat race..
The greatest lottery tickets I will ever get the chance to own..


It’s either going to zero, and I can say “at least I had the balls to try”..
Or I can say “Fuck you” to the system forever..
Eventually..
One way or the other..

Why does your investment into bitcoin have to play out so extreme?  I understand satoshi's statement about bitcoin being a binary.. but still.. there seems to be a need for some prudence in the approach that any of us decides to take in terms of how to invest into bitcoin.. 

Because I have never really “bought” Bitcoin, I have only ever MADE Bitcoin..
Whatever amount of Bitcoin I have ever “bought” was just for play and basically completely meaningless compared to what I have made/accumulated/acquired..

In my early days I started with $5 of bitcoin when it was around $500 and worked my ass off on exchanges to increase it, along the way maybe I also got into some lucky things..
What I have made is vastly larger than what I could ever hope to buy..
I could never buy now in 10 years of my work/salary savings what I have in Bitcoin.. From my thousands of hours in the pursuit of satoshis..

So...
I WILL NOT sell them until they are worth more than what I need to live the rest of my life in peace.. (other than to pay tax on my gains)
I could buy a lambo right now and I will not..

I will HODL for another halving or 2 and fuck right off with my “fuck you” money, or if it goes to zero, just keep being poor and wage slaving..

Make sense?

I do t want a lambo, I want the rest of my life in freedom..

[jojo69]

.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYtJum5k9V8

"....as far as thickness goes,  its just bowed a little bit, but...."


Um...That maybe an understatement. lol

https://youtu.be/g_wc9JvTXGc?t=50

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I am out, gonna let this storm pass and hold through. Was thinking to sell and buy back lower. But usually when I sell it goes up. I spent all my money way too early yesterday. So, fuck it. See ya in the next run up. Might be in a week. Might be in 2 months.

Oh Gawd....    Peeps never learn nuttin, it appears.

Buying Selling after an already 25% dip (referring from $53k to $39,573)...  or alternatively a 39% dip (referring from $64,895 to $39,573)....  Yeah sure, it could go lower, but what should be happening now in terms of what "smart money is doing" is either buying or HODLing in the event that you ran out of cash to buy more BTC.

BTC still respecting the strong support line as indicated with the white horizontal line @40,921.

As long as price continues to respect that "squiggly" white line and doesn't slip beneath it and close there on the Daily TF, I won't consider Bitcoin to be on a bearish run. These screenshots below are the current status, taken a few minutes ago, for 4hrs and daily.

We (royal that is) have already figured out that your squigglies are quasi-random because they have close to no explanation in regards to their placement.

Go figure...

 

the spirit of Bitcoin is low these days, the price dump is heavy and people are unsure where this will lead to.

dont worry.

it is at the same place where it was around 30.09.2013.

in about 8 to 12 weeks we will have another great peak in the 200k to 400k area. Sit tight and hodl and look forward for these amazing times to come.

I love believers !

I believe!!


It is the only avenue for me to escape the rat race..
The greatest lottery tickets I will ever get the chance to own..


It’s either going to zero, and I can say “at least I had the balls to try”..
Or I can say “Fuck you” to the system forever..
Eventually..
One way or the other..

Why does your investment into bitcoin have to play out so extreme?  I understand satoshi's statement about bitcoin being a binary.. but still.. there seems to be a need for some prudence in the approach that any of us decides to take in terms of how to invest into bitcoin..  

Because I have never really “bought” Bitcoin, I have only ever MADE Bitcoin..
Whatever amount of Bitcoin I have ever “bought” was just for play and basically completely meaningless compared to what I have made/accumulated/acquired..

There are a decent number of long term bitcoiners who had considerably under-invested into bitcoin becaue they were worried about their average cost per BTC and failed to commit towards a plan of regular and consistent buying of BTC... hopefully, you did not paint ur lil selfie into such a quandrum.

In my early days I started with $5 of bitcoin when it was around $500 and worked my ass off on exchanges to increase it, along the way maybe I also got into some lucky things..
What I have made is vastly larger than what I could ever hope to buy..
I could never buy now in 10 years of my work/salary savings what I have in Bitcoin.. From my thousands of hours in the pursuit of satoshis..

Ok.  well maybe it has worked out for you?  Your formula is not coming off as completely appealable, but if you are saying that you have 10 years of salary in principle then that should be fine.. there are some folks (talking about Dabs) who subscribe to the theory of having between 25 to 30 years of salary in principle in order to have a sustainable portfolio (perhaps reaching a kind of fuck you status).  

Personally, I have some troubles with relying upon spot price for your evaluation of BTC portfolio value, so 10 years of BTC at spot price is quite a bit lower quantity of BTC than would be required to use either the 104-week moving average ($23,400 - safe to use in a bull market) or the 208-week moving average ($15,600 safe to use in a bear market) as your value measurement reference point.. which seem much safer to me, at least in terms of figuring out your current status in terms of how close you might be to fuck you status.

So...
I WILL NOT sell them until they are worth more than what I need to live the rest of my life in peace.. (other than to pay tax on my gains)
I could buy a lambo right now and I will not..

Measure of wealth in terms of lambos is probably a not a good idea.. unless you are clearly well exceeding fuck you status.

By the way, buying a Lambo and being able to afford to keep it may well be two different stories.  Let's say that mid-range Lambos may well cost in the $300k-minimum territory, it would probably be a good idea to have in the ballpark of 5x the wealth in order to be splurging on a Lamborghini... which means that your Lamborghini would be costing you no more than 20% of your wealth... so that would be $1.5 million.. but hey who am I to say?  There are all kinds of people who buy toys and goodies that they cannot even afford - merely because they can, but then what else do they have to show for it, so maybe having 10x would be a better measure.. I would suggest don't be spending any more than 10% of your wealth on such consumption items... and then again, we have the issue of measuring wealth in accordance with the BTC spot price or in accordance with more conservative bottom arenas, such as the 208-week moving average or the 104-week moving average.

I will HODL for another halving or 2 and fuck right off with my “fuck you” money, or if it goes to zero, just keep being poor and wage slaving..

Actually one or two more halvings (or cycles) would likely put you in a more solid situation in terms of being assured of the security of your fuck you status... at least if you are trying to figure out from spot price or attempting to use more conservative valuations (of the 104-week moving average or the 208-week moving average) as I consider would be the more prudent approach to evaluating your BTC holdings and your ability to draw based on that.

Make sense?

I do t want a lambo, I want the rest of my life in freedom..

It kind of makes sense.. that twice you mention the Lambo that you do not want.  Of course that makes a lot of sense.  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Mpamaegbu]

We (royal that is) have already figured out that your squigglies are quasi-random because they have close to no explanation in regards to their placement.

Go figure...

Well, without stressing much to explain it to you, I will just leave you a chart as to how that "squiggly" white line came about. The circled part was a range that lasted a very long time and eventually turned resistance to support at the price I mentioned earlier. I don't know what your trading patterns are. You may want to educate us on that if you know better.