Moving back above $44.5K would likely confirm that the low is in, otherwise a re-test of the accumulation zone (particularly $38-40K) wouldn't be out of the question, now that price has already flirted with this support zone.
Not much to report on the Bitcoin price as not a lot has changed in the past couple of days (see previous TA). Price is attempting to make support at previous resistance of around $40K, where there the bulk of volume accumulation begins as well as notably the 0.5 fib retracement from local low to local high. If this level holds as support, then new ATHs don't appear to be too far away in the near future.
Of course, there are likely ways that I am seeing the whole matter differently than you (in spite of your usage of a variety of squiggles to attempt to help you at making your case... hahahahaha), and that includes my current working theory of what appears to be our $55k to $80k no man's zone.
Probably because I'm focusing on the short-term analysis, the 4hr/Daily right now. For sure there is a no-mans land not that far away, but I'd argue (based on volume profile) that this is north of $57K rather than $55K. However without getting rejected by $55K, then sure price can enter no mans land pretty easy and quickly. That said, for me it's more like $58K-$100K, I don't see $80K as being very relevant, but feel free to enlighten me on any random figures pulled out of a hat
Of course my choice of $80k is meant as a kind of ballparking of around a 20% to 30% shooting above the current standing ATH.. so that ends up lining upon $80k.. and surely I also expect some resistance prior to $100k, so I would not expect BTC prices to shoot all the way straight up to $100k since that would be around 50% higher than the current standing ATH.. .. and yeah, I recognize that in December 2020, we did not really experience resistance until $42k, which was a wee bit over 100% above the then existing ATH of $19,666.
I am not saying that you are outrageous in terms of picking such a seemingly high top of $100k as your top of your conceptualization of a noman's range, even while I just hate to get my expectations too high in terms of attempting to make any kinds of statements of seeming over exuberance.. so in that regard, I would rather error on the side of less exuberance, even if some bitcoin naysayers or permabears would already characterize my back of the napkin $80k-ish top as a kind of too much exuberance.. but they can fuck off, if they are not recognizing that these kinds of historical patterns ongoingly existing in bitcoinlandia.. in spite of the fact that a pass through of noman's land is also far from guaranteed.. and I am far from proclaiming that it is guaranteed even while appreciating that a kind of pattern of outrageous nearly no resistance pass throughs have historically existed and likely to continue to exist in the near-term future. For sure, part of my rationale for suggesting that there ongoingly exists a kind of shooting past previous ATH prices that likely comes from some of the overly suppressions of BTC price in times that precede the returning to the then existing ATH.. - so for example, with this most recent one, the outrageous 56% correction that we got down to $28,600 and also the fact that we got stuck around the lower $30ks for about two months with an ongoing clawing back to get back into the $50ks that is lasting in the four months arena (and counting) currently, so for sure these kinds of suppression of the BTC price practices end up resulting in upside BTC price explosions, whether that was the intended outcome or not.. it ends up happening and continuing to happen.... but I would surely rather stay with more conservative estimates of $80k-ish rather than presuming too much with $100k-ish even though I can appreciate that you are not even really very much different in your thinking from me in regards to that way of framing the considerations.
Also to note, there was more selling around the $50K levels than $57K, so my probability of new ATH coming soon increases dramatically when back above $50K rather than $55K to be honest, the latter has become less relevant now due to the main distribution zone overhead being lowered by $7K. I didn't appreciate this initially as it made a drop to $40K appear more likely, but now I'm certainly appreciating it.
I suppose that I am not really appreciating that angle of squigglies as much as you seem to be, but whatever, for some reason, it just is not resonating with me as having any real and significant meaning that is in need of accounting.. but hey.. no problem with your pointing it out as a possible consideration.
PS - I'll have you know there is no squigglyness going on here, ie
"a short, irregular curve or twist, as in writing or drawing." The MAs are not drawn (formulated), the other lines are very linear looking (straight)
You'll otherwise know when squiggly lines will be applied. My lazer beam eyes will be brighter when close to $100K than 0, followed by some generally bullish sentiment regarding
"the path of least resistance is to the upside". We are not there yet.
One man's squiggly is another man's cherished pet. So there's that angle, too.
In other words, I believe that there needs to be some consideration and discussion of what I perceive to be potential resistance that exists prior to getting into "noman's zone," and in essence the resistance would not seem to be way the hell down here in the $44k range.. so even if there might be resistance here in the $44k area, there's "gotta" (used for rhetorical purposes) be some resistance prior to $55k... so yeah, I am not disputing that there might be resistance around these prices.. but I can hardly imagine a world in which my theoretical $55k to $80k noman's zone had converted into a $44k to $80k noman's zone, and so in that regard, you are not likely going to be able to easily shake me from my tentative working theory of what really truly seems to be such a $55k to 80k noman's zone.. whether it is merely a figment of my imagination or not.
For sure long-term, breaking above through $50K can easily mean slicing through $57K distribution like a knife through butter, as most indicators will all confirm a bullish trend change on all time-frames by this price.
I don't know about all of that. Part of the problem of expecting the price to continue to go UPpity forever is that $50k-ish was already entering into a supra 75% price appreciation from the $28,600 bottom without any kind of meaningful correction, and we actually ended up getting to nearly $53k which is a 85%
price appreciation... so it just becomes more and more acceptable that some kind of meaningful correction could end up being within the cards... so yeah, all the way up to $43k and then $46k and then $50k and then $53k, I was considering that at some point buying support is going to run out, and finally it did, so yeah we corrected back down to $39,573 from our $53k local top, and surely I am not going to all of a sudden consider that it's inevitable that we are going to get above $55k this time around and surely we could diddily daddily around in the supra $40ks or even in the lower $50ks, and even though your buttressing of "most indicators" tell us x, we may well get y instead. #justsaying.... and I surely do not want to be too presumptive about supra $50k because we have already been there and done that and the line between upper $40ks and lower $50ks may well be nothing but a blurred figment of the all indicators imaginations (to the extent that indicators might have imaginations that are based on math and science that fail/refuse to account for other aspects of king daddy underlying dynamics** that can screw up squigglies like nobody's business).
**Let me know if you want to go through the pain and suffering of having to attempt to reiterate the many underly dynamics of our lord and savior daddy king.. and his/her/its more than willingness to say fuck you to any squigglies that are trying to proclaim their lil selfies as reliable indicators.. hahahahahaha.Then ATH probability becomes extremely high, followed by and the usual fomo once price continues to move higher in uber bullish fashion, likely leading into a parabolic move to the upside that ends with a blow off top.
Wait, wait, wait... you seem to be getting ahead of ur lil selfie.
We have to take one step at a time. I may well be blind, but to me, it seems that we are not even close to a blow off top, yet.. or being able to see how it could play out once getting passed noman's zone - presuming that we get past noman's zone first.... It seems that the way the blow off top plays out is not necessarily a given, even if we have a few quasi-examples of it happening already but there are a whole hell of a lot of scenarios in terms of attempting to account for both price movement quantity and the amount of time that it takes to get there.. so I can hardly see that we can proclaim with any certainty how the next leg is going to play out without necessarily knowing how the previous leg plays out, but you want to presume one leg and the next leg and then get to the blow off top, and for me, I feel that there are too many presumptions built into those kinds of proclamations, even if you could end up being correct in terms of choosing the various leg paths that seem most probable and each of those leg paths end up playing out..
Let me see if I can attempt to outline this in terms of describing the legs a wee bit moar better.
One of the problems still remain that we might have leg 1a, leg 2c, leg 3c and leg 4a as being the most probable of all of the scenarios, but so fucking what. if leg 1a plays out and then leg 2b plays out, then we may well be fucked in terms of even being able to consider legs 3c and 4a because they no longer become hardly probable at all because leg 2b played out and screwed up everything subsequent to that. so then once leg 2b plays out, then we have to reassess based on the leg2b facts rather than continuing to paint our rosey colored picture based on a leg 2c scenario that did not play out and once leg 2b plays out we may well not be able to get back to leg 2c as we had previously considered to have been the most probable at the time that we were predicting which was prior to leg 1..
I'd like to think these longer-term factors are obvious, since 10 years of price history indicates the likelihood of this occurrence becoming extremely likely,
Sure the big picture aspects do seem to be quite likely, but we still have to figure out each cycle has its potential peculiarities, no? Whether those peculiarities play out or not remains another question.
but you're right not everyone appears aware of this unfortunately. This is probably why you are here to raise these considerations and discussions, as opposed to myself that merely looks at statistical data and assigns probabilities based on shorter-term outcomes.
I don't know. A back and forth of the various ideas can help to attempt to shed light upon how much probability to give to varying scenarios.. and surely sometimes guys can really end up nailing some of the shorter term dynamics that many of us non-technical moon boys have trouble appreciating.
Bitcoin dominance speculation *Trigger warning*
Oh gawd..
This cat feels like batman slapping you just for thinking this kind of nonsense.
#justsaying, even yours truly has moments of emotionalismsBelieve it or not, a lot of my analysis comes from the BTC.D chart, as there is a huge correlation between UPidy and irrational speculation. My view that Bitcoin dominance is likely to rise in the coming months should be music to maxi's ears really, since they have craved this kind of altcoin bleed for 9 months now that quite simply hasn't arrived. It's just time for a seasonal change, that's all.
For me, it just sounds like reading shadows in the cave and coming to favorable conclusions that might not be noticeable in the light, and it hurts my head just thinking about it very much, even if you are getting some pleasures from such considerations.
Don't get me wrong. I am not completely unaware of the various froth going on in the shitcoin space, whether we are talking about various coins, or defi or NFTs or whatever other flavor of the season is being pumped and dumped and scammed upon the masses.. Anyone attempting to appreciate the bitcoin space with any kind of depth or meaning at all is going to run across these various items and issues and happenings on a regular basis.... including ideas about if froth purging might help or hurt BTC spot price or even affect dynamics within BTC's current cycle or future BTC cycles, if any....
The fact that Bitcoin is becoming less of a speculative asset as speculators look elsewhere for "quick gains" should also not be considered a bad thing imo, in the long-term.
It's not relevant to this thread.
It gives the opportunity for Bitcoin to be considered a reserve asset for traders, as opposed to an asset to speculate on and therefore trade with. Ideally, more traders trading BTC/X rather than BTC/USD is inherently good for BTC long-term imo.
My head is hurting.. yes, we know that bitcoin has increasing and increasing liquidity across all kinds of markets.. what else is new, and why do we want to get drug down some kind of slippery slope assessment of which shitcoin is less shitty in terms of how it might trade or not against king daddy? Seems like a distraction that is worthy of some other place to discuss in terms of even trying to stay on topic and not getting distracted into some kind of pump/dump or shilling of this project or that project or to assume that this thread is how to get richie thread, when it is not about that unless we are attempting to at least keep bitcoin as our attempted focal point.
Poll
