Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

 

https://www.ibtimes.com/us-could-pay-450000-immigrant-families-separated-trumps-border-policy-3326968

[1714141569]

1714141569

[1714141569]

1714141569

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[eddie13]

https://www.ibtimes.com/us-could-pay-450000-immigrant-families-separated-trumps-border-policy-3326968

Just give criminals who were willing to put (their own?) children at risk almost a half million dollars..

Fuck this shit country...

[Lucius]

a look at how inflation and consumer prices are moving in eu...

After everything that has happened in the past 2 years, we cannot expect anything better than what is happening, and it is the result of our politicians who are not able to solve problems, but only create new ones. I have a little satisfaction in all this, because all those who have said for years that Bitcoin will fail, are going through difficult moments today because they finally realize how stupid their plan "money in the bank/under the mattress" is actually stupid.

Sometime during 2015, I had a conversation with close friends about Bitcoin - everyone categorically turned down any chance to invest in something like that - and today they feel pretty stupid, and I believe they often think what they could do with 1, 2 or 5 BTC which in 2015 would cost them only a few hundred $.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

*Fun with fractals*

A re-test of old resistance becoming new support? Sounds short-term bearish I know, but in fact it'd be extremely bullish to build up momentum as recent price history has previously proven....

You are trying to draw a potential short-term bearish picture out of the matter, even though bitcoin is very bullish, as your alternative assertion seems to suggest as the minority likely outcome... We are bullish, so something is likely wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrooooooonnnnngggggg with your bearish anticipatenings.

Let's wait and see 

For sure, we both no doubt agree Daily/Weekly are bullish, but 4hr chart for all those traderz out there is no longer bullish. It's not outright *bearish*, but key bullish momentum has been broken.
Hence, not shorting opportunity bearish (unless you love high risk and regularly getting rekt™), but more bullish momentum has faded "take profits" neutral, wait for re-entry.

Are we merely repeating our old go to talking-points just in another BTC price-posture scenario?

Hey.. by the way, I just thought about another dynamic that we have discussed which is my having considered that $55k to $80k is a kind of noman's zone. so whether or not that noman's zone actually exists, I remain of the belief that recent BTC price actions have not yet negated both the existence of such noman's zone more or less where I have conceptually placed it and the likely ongoing pressures that come from the likely ongoing existence of such noman's zone....so sure, nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia, but it just seems more difficult to get BTC price corrections while we are in such zone.. not impossible, but likely way more work for any bearwhales trying to either keep the BTC price from passing through such zone or to attempt to knock the BTC price below the zone (or otherwise attempt to negate the actual likely existence of such zone).

In terms of trading volume, it's true that a few months ago  I considered price to be in low trading range (no-mans land) above $57K. I glad you mentioned this as based on previous VPVR point of control, price yesterday wicked of this as support (as well as mid-level of log growth that is in confluence). It would make sense as to why price would bottom out here and make new ATH, hence I'm not doubting this could be the case. After all, pull-backs and recoveries can happen from anywhere, but given the current double top (short-term for now), coming back down to the 50 Day 50 / 0.618 retracement level and finding support there, that is typical in Bitocin's price (in terms of price/time averages for a correction), would be the most likely place around $52.5K.

That said, yesterday's wick that liquidated longs is a bit of a game changer, to me it's showing that $54.5K - $57.5K will act as strong support based on the past 8 months of trading volume in this area. I also can't deny that were here a partial form of price discovery. If price continues to trade above $57.5K for longer, then for my analysis would change. It would indicate price doesn't need to go lower. On the other side of the argument is the trading gap in the $51K-54.5K range, that if $40-$43K price levels is anything to go by, price can be drawn to it to build support there. I'm roughly 60-40 that price goes a bit lower, but maybe it won't have to be low $50Ks, but more high $50Ks (that has already occurred since publishing my analysis).



Otherwise since July, as referenced above, above $40K I've been around 70-30 bullish longer-term, after being around 50-50/60-40 in the $30K-$40K range that we would go lower to around $25K. Not enough to hold back, but enough to leave some capital aside. This went up to around 75% once hash ribbons signalled, then probably 80-20 over $50K. That still remains, but doesn't mean a healthy correction won't happen in the short-term. Quite the opposite. The more relevant aspect should also how low if price goes lower, because quite obviously (or at least should be), once price makes new ATH, we are in pure price discovery and it becomes very difficult to know how far that rocket could go in the short-mid term.

Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.

It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.

Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP 

I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.

Technically price has (so far) formed a double top on a Weekly time-frame. Double tops aren't where price is exactly the same, but when they are close enough prior to a reversal (such as <3%).
That said, Bitcoin has never ended it's mid or long-term bull markets with a double top, especially 6 months apart, so I find it highly unlikely this will be the case this time around.
$10K is otherwise an insane price to be targeting. $10K would more likely yield $1K prices with a definite bubble burst than a new low, as it would invalidate 10 years of price history.
The 200 Week MA that price has never broken below in the past 6 years is currently >$15K, by 2023 it'll likely be >$20K 
This is just the fakeout for the "double top believers" and traditional traders prior to new ATH 
I prefer the theory that double tops are meant to be broken, as it weakens resistance...

Fair enough regarding your points about double top or no double top.

Your factual description of the 200 week MA seems a wee bit off both in terms of facts and in terms of speculation regarding where the 200-week moving average might be going in the next 14-months-ish.

First, actual measurements of the current 200-week MA puts it at about $16,650, and one year ago it was right around $7k.  Look at the current 200-week MA in the below link.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

That's why I said >$15K and >$20K, because I wasn't sure of the exact numbers based on projection, dependant on a bear market in 2022 or not....
I don't doubt $30K is out the question, hence I was assuming it could be anywhere between $20K and infinity


As I type we are now otherwise breaking out the bullish descending triangle / bull flag, as well as moving above the 50 MA, closing above here would be a bullish sign and would put me back on the 50-50 fence, even leaning slightly bullish short-term again.



I'm actually a bit glad as unexpectedly took some more altcoin profits last night to average even moar back in for longer-term, so that's always a bonus 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcoinPsycho]

$70,000 this weekend 🤪

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Something came in the mail today, just in time for a face melting finale to the bull run before New Year.

[AlcoHoDL]

It's so easy to be in profit without doing anything at all. Just buy Bitcoin, HoDL, and give it some time. No need to trade (a sure way to lose your sleep and possibly your sanity, along with your coins), no need to mess with shitcoins, no need to constantly check prices & charts. Just one simple, stress-free method that has proven to be a winning strategy time and time again. And yet, people still trade, still bet on the latest shitcoin, still listen to self-proclaimed "crypto-gurus" on YouTube advising them to buy this and that.

Take my shitcoiner cousin, for example. He made a meager 3x of his investment ($6000) since 2017, after years of stressful trading, not in Bitcoin, but in several shitcoins -- he could have easily made 30x if he had bought Bitcoin and HeDL. He has already withdrawn his profits ($12000) to buy some land and a large-screen TV.

Now he has developed a new strategy to become rich: spread his capital (the initial, and remaining $6000) on more than 30 different shitcoins. His idea is that, even if 10% of them heavily pump, he will end up in more profit than simply putting them all on Bitcoin and HoDL. I've warned him that this is probably not going to work out, but he's sure it will. Using all his $6000 to buy BTC at the current price of $63k, when Bitcoin price reaches $100k (and it soon will), he would have about $9500, a healthy extra $3500 in profit. Let's see how his shitcoin-spreading strategy plays out. I hope it works out, but fear it won't.

Christmas will be fun this year.

[JayJuanGee]

Getting frustrated in this price range, we’re really struggling to break out. Either bears/shorters are very determined to suppress the price for as long as possible or the demand just isn’t there.

Either way, getting annoying. Where’s my $125,000 per bitcoin?

If this continues I’m afraid I will have to speak with the bitcoin manager.


Hope this is a reverse indicator & we pump before monthly close.

In the past 24 hours or so, I was also considering how long we would need to stay BTC price stagnant in order for the noman's zone thesis to be negated.. I mean so far we have ONLY had a 15% drop if we include that spike down to $56,425.. but really that spike down was short-lived.. and we are largely talking 12% correction at best for coming on a week and a half--- so not really enough of a delay, yet, to negate the noman's land thesis.

So, still the question becomes regarding how much stagnation might we need to have in order to negate the noman's land thesis?  Could we just float here for a month or more so long as we do not dip below $55k-ish?  Would that be acceptable?

I am going to try to NOT get too worked up about any of these matters because golly gee whiz it seems we need something a wee bit more negative to actually negate the noman's land thesis.. and I am not seeing it.. not yet, at least....

In udder words, hold your horses...

in udder words, patience padawan..

in udder words, zoom out ur lil selfie a wee bit MOAR better.. we are still like: 1) 6x-ish up from last year (if you happen to include 13 months in your conception of a year), 2)  a new ATH that just happened a mere 9-ish days ago and 3) we still have not really corrected lower than 15% from such top and are largely floating around in a 7% to 10% correction zone which is still quite close to retesting the ATH... what is not to rejoice?

This price action is rather frustrating considering we breached the all time high recently.

When we broke $20K this cycle, I remember it took a little while, it wasn't come and break it, first we got close and there was a dip, then we broke it slightly and there was another dip, until we subsequently broke it clearly. In this case, we broke at previous ATH above $65k but it was not a clear break.

Getting frustrated in this price range, we’re really struggling to break out.
...
Either way, getting annoying. Where’s my $125,000 per bitcoin?

Sure, sure, very frustrating a 400% return in the last year, wink wink.

I’m greedy, man.

Never satisfied, always want MOAR

Not becoming of a gentleman...

not saying that you have to be..

you do you...

[savetherainforest]

I sold all my Shib's and bought DGB. ..... You f^ckers are so clueless when I was telling u about this coin when it was 0.00000700~ ish.     ... Now it will probably lose another zero and be 0.0001 for Shib... but meh... that's just like 30% only increase. I need at least 20x on my investments.

*edit():  It was back then when I told u I sold all my dodge at 0.5$ that I bought under 5 cents....     

[hisslyness]

I sold all my Shib's and bought DGB. ..... You f^ckers are so clueless when I was telling u about this coin when it was 0.00000700~ ish.     ... Now it will probably lose another zero and be 0.0001 for Shib... but meh... that's just like 30% only increase. I need at least 20x on my investments.

*edit():  It was back then when I told u I sold all my dodge at 0.5$ that I bought under 5 cents....     

I like how you are throwing around percentages... but how much in USD did you gamble?

Because 30% of $1000 doesn't excite me and much as 5% of $100,000.00

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

From now on it will always be all green

REAL bitcoins! not FAKE Bitcoin Futures and IOU's... Small Market but it is just the beginning!

[savetherainforest]

I sold all my Shib's and bought DGB. ..... You f^ckers are so clueless when I was telling u about this coin when it was 0.00000700~ ish.     ... Now it will probably lose another zero and be 0.0001 for Shib... but meh... that's just like 30% only increase. I need at least 20x on my investments.

*edit():  It was back then when I told u I sold all my dodge at 0.5$ that I bought under 5 cents....      

I like how you are throwing around percentages... but how much in USD did you gamble?

Because 30% of $1000 doesn't excite me and much as 5% of $100,000.00

ALL OF IT !!!      



^ semi joking.... I trade with like 90% of my stuff... and keep 10% on hard drives & paper wallets.    

*edit(): (in case there is GOX 2.0 and I get bust.... )
Also... I don't leverage. Never leverage! Always 1:1 ratio trades.      

[OutOfMemory]

Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.

It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.

Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP  

I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.

You are such a "nice guy" OOM...!!!!!!! #nohomo


 

Yeah, i thought after this statement of yours for a moment.

I used to be cocky and really hurt people using words, mainly because of my social insecurity, in the majority of my past.
Short version of a long story: Life forced me to change. Additionally, nobody will ever hurt or insult me using words.

Of course, there was a bit of humor and probing intended with my response - and I do understand that some of us regularly attempt to employ tactics in order to NOT take certain matters personally, and with practice, we likely are able to become less reactionary and defensive as we had been in our youth.

At the same time, I will proclaim that it is going to be quite difficult for any of us who are actually humans to completely detach our lil selfies from emotions or even our second guessing the intentions of others when communications are directed at us or about us.  At best, we are attempting to manage and NOT be too reactive - but never completely getting rid of various urges to attempt to figure out if we had been slighted and if we might need to respond emotional to that.

In other words, not even this cat is a bot.

 

Aaaawww  
I'm more fan of dogs, but these cats are soooo cute  

On topic, i highlighted a critical aspect above.
You can't detach lil selfie from emotions. But one can grasp that emotions are coming from him/herself, not from events happening outside of him/her.
The outer world is just delivering the triggers to our emotions, they are part of us. Many try to detach, but to accept is the way to getting to non-bothering levels of them lil selfies.  

EDIT: Another fact that is always getting confused by humans seeking something like inner freedom: "to let go"  means "to accept".
Bless you all, WO brothers!

[JayJuanGee]

Today, I gave myself a gift I've been wanting for a very long time; per the 1st of January 2022 I will be working four days a week instead of five. I can manage the work in four days, and it's now financially feasible thanks to this great Bitcoin adventure I've been on since 2014 - I've worked on getting my energy costs and some other costs down, I've built up enough savings and I now have all the material stuff I could ever want.

I'm incredibly grateful for all of this and I also want to thank everyone here for all the bad and good advice, the knowledge and of course the fun.

Everything I gain from now on is just another bonus.

I am glad for you - even though you had some examples of spending seemingly decent amounts of your BTC stash at inopportune times.. but hey, maybe your case goes to show that even if some of us might end up making mistakes and even taking out BTC profits at inopportune times, we can still profit quite stupendously from bitcoin.. and bitcoin's historical outperformance of any other assets can still end up forgiving us for our not being perfect.

Of course, past performance does not guarantee future performance, and any of us do need to figure out if we are able to make sacrifices to our current cashflow in regards to how much BTC we are going to end up needing to spend in the future.

I am not even proclaiming myself to be perfect in various cash management balancing, and several times I had been considering that I might not have enough cash on hand, and I have a current situation in which I am considering rejecting the ongoing use of a debt instrument that I consider to be too restrictive to some things that I would like to do.  Yeah, I had already gone through the process of using a debt instrument.. yet in the end, sometimes there are restrictions that are just not tolerable when someone has an ownership claim in the collateral item.. and I had gotten involved in financing a project also that included some reluctance for my partner in that project to employ traditional financial services  - so surely there can be some freedoms in being able to self-finance as needed.. even if sometimes there can be advantages, also, in using other peoples money, too.... ongoing balances to be made in those regards, too... and maybe the more money (collateral and value) that you have, the more that you are able to shop around to set your own terms (for deciding to use such debt services).

https://www.ibtimes.com/us-could-pay-450000-immigrant-families-separated-trumps-border-policy-3326968

Coming up with all kinds of new and innovative ways to spend those bbbbbbrrrrrrr monies.   

[hisslyness]

Coming up with all kinds of new and innovative ways to spend those bbbbbbrrrrrrr monies.   

I was thinking the same thing!

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

[..... various price directional discussions ]

I don't have any real contentions with the various points that you made - including some of your additional analysis - beyond some of my already made assertions and probably also a criticism that you are likely giving too much weight to short-term noises while ongoingly under-appreciating the difficult to quantify UPpity powers of king daddy.

One aspect (maybe example) that causes me some concerns relates to the DOWNity gravitational forces that you seem to be assigning to needs to fill in prior price gaps, and overall I do not disagree with your recognition of such price gap filling forces - even though I likely am assigning quite a bit less importance to how strong such forces might be.  


Otherwise.. good discussion points.. you yucking my yum bear who proclaims to want to be a bull..     .hahahahahaha

$70,000 this weekend 🤪

Ah.. ha!!!!!!

Just discovered that bitcoinPsycho and Philipma1957 are the same peeps......  

By the way, when does weekend start?  And when does weekend end?  just so that we (royal of course) can verify dee true of such proclamation.

It's so easy to be in profit without doing anything at all. Just buy Bitcoin, HoDL, and give it some time. No need to trade (a sure way to lose your sleep and possibly your sanity, along with your coins), no need to mess with shitcoins, no need to constantly check prices & charts. Just one simple, stress-free method that has proven to be a winning strategy time and time again. And yet, people still trade, still bet on the latest shitcoin, still listen to self-proclaimed "crypto-gurus" on YouTube advising them to buy this and that.

Take my shitcoiner cousin, for example. He made a meager 3x of his investment ($6000) since 2017, after years of stressful trading, not in Bitcoin, but in several shitcoins -- he could have easily made 30x if he had bought Bitcoin and HeDL. He has already withdrawn his profits ($12000) to buy some land and a large-screen TV.

Now he has developed a new strategy to become rich: spread his capital (the initial, and remaining $6000) on more than 30 different shitcoins. His idea is that, even if 10% of them heavily pump, he will end up in more profit than simply putting them all on Bitcoin and HoDL. I've warned him that this is probably not going to work out, but he's sure it will. Using all his $6000 to buy BTC at the current price of $63k, when Bitcoin price reaches $100k (and it soon will), he would have about $9500, a healthy extra $3500 in profit. Let's see how his shitcoin-spreading strategy plays out. I hope it works out, but fear it won't.

Christmas will be fun this year.

For sure it does not sound like a winning strategy both in terms of actually hitting on enough of those coins (or great enough price appreciation) to actually outperform bitcoin, and also the need to monitor and potentially time such cashing out.. whether that is watching for the next year or perhaps watching for several years... Need not really say too much more, but gosh that sounds like a bad plan.... I suppose he would not want to go $3k into bitcoin and $3k into various shitcoins because reducing his shitcoin investment from $6k to $3k seems like it is too diluted.. but his whole thinking in regards to both how to invest and what makes a good investment (rather than a gambling) strategy is diluted, so there is that.

I sold all my Shib's and bought DGB. ..... You f^ckers are so clueless when I was telling u about this coin when it was 0.00000700~ ish.     ... Now it will probably lose another zero and be 0.0001 for Shib... but meh... that's just like 30% only increase. I need at least 20x on my investments.

*edit():  It was back then when I told u I sold all my dodge at 0.5$ that I bought under 5 cents....     

I like how you are throwing around percentages... but how much in USD did you gamble?

Because 30% of $1000 doesn't excite me and much as 5% of $100,000.00

There's also quite a bit of value in having investments that have some level of assurance of downside risk protection.  Surely no investments are completely guaranteed in terms of considering both downside risk of loss and upside potential.. but many of us have found out, through the years, that our value has been pretty damned secure in bitcoin, even while we have gone through both upwards and downwards price movements, too.