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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25462974 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
ChartBuddy
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September 28, 2021, 11:01:26 PM


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September 28, 2021, 11:05:33 PM
Merited by fillippone (3)




Awesome GIF, if someone maybe can make it WO-visible  Grin




When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:


https://twitter.com/schuldensuehner/status/1442843235370610708?s=21

maybe we shut the gov down.

place yer bets shut down or money 💰 printer goes weeeeee

my bet is shut down for three days to five days then money 💰 printers go weeeeee.
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September 28, 2021, 11:24:02 PM
Last edit: September 28, 2021, 11:35:33 PM by Biodom
Merited by fillippone (3), Cryptotourist (3), philipma1957 (1)

Blockstream bought Spondoolies remnant (people in the know understand what I am talking about).
My concern is that Chinese would stop producing miners. Maybe Blockstream has something lined up.
SOMEONE should step in (Samsung?), the only question is ensuring financing, chip supply and assembly.
It is NOT very easy as all US producers were either bad or went bankrupt.

Miner production is the last aspect that poses a threat to Bitcoin: it is the last centralized aspect of Bitcoin.
A crackdown on ASICS producers and foundries could hurt the system.
But its'...transitory.
In the long run, markets will readjust and new producers would come in to take their slice of the profits.




IT'S HAPPENING!



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1442955263149887490?s=21

Sorry, in a long run we are all dead, so this argument does not fly very far.
No doubt some might come at some point, but where are they now?
Nobody apart from another Chinese company or two wanted to challenge Bitmain for mass miner production, although there were many billions at stake.
I am not sure why.

All 'investors' on this forum underappreciate the mining aspect and VERY often pooh-pooh it.
However with no miners production for a couple years, I assure you that the price will stagnate as well. Why? Because hashing power is one important aspect to which people always point as a sign of bitcoin network growth. If there would be no growth in hashing power, I fully expect that the price might stagnate as well.
The 'investor' class here might argue that it ain't so and mining reacts to price and not vice versa, but bitcoin network IS based on mining, so I would respectfully disagree with such opinions. Who knows, maybe the price is sniffing out this possibility.

TL;DR with no new miners there will be no significant bitcoin price appreciation (let's make it a proclamation #1).
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September 28, 2021, 11:38:47 PM

Blockstream bought Spondoolies remnant (people in the know understand what I am talking about).
My concern is that Chinese would stop producing miners. Maybe Blockstream has something lined up.
SOMEONE should step in (Samsung?), the only question is ensuring financing, chip supply and assembly.
It is NOT very easy as all US producers were either bad or went bankrupt.

Miner production is the last aspect that poses a threat to Bitcoin: it is the last centralized aspect of Bitcoin.
A crackdown on ASICS producers and foundries could hurt the system.
But its'...transitory.
In the long run, markets will readjust and new producers would come in to take their slice of the profits.




IT'S HAPPENING!



https://twitter.com/documentingbtc/status/1442955263149887490?s=21

Sorry, in a long run we are all dead, so this argument does not fly very far.
No doubt some might come at some point, but where are they now?
Nobody apart from another Chinese company or two wanted to challenge Bitmain for mass miner production, although there were many billions at stake.
I am not sure why.

All 'investors' on this forum underappreciate the mining aspect and VERY often pooh-pooh it.
However with no miners production for a couple years, I assure you that the price will stagnate as well. Why? Because hashing power is one important aspect to which people always point as a sign of bitcoin network growth. If there would be no growth in hashing power, I fully expect that the price might stagnate as well.
The 'investor' class here might argue that it ain't so and mining reacts to price and not vice versa, but bitcoin network IS based on mining, so I would respectfully disagree with such opinions. Who knows, maybe the price is sniffing out this possibility.

TL;DR with no new miners there will be no significant bitcoin price appreciation (let's make it a proclamation #1).

But the TA clearly shows the price can only go up.

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September 29, 2021, 12:01:36 AM


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September 29, 2021, 12:18:51 AM

Accordingly, if we are looking at medium to longer term, and let's say four-year cycles, then our currently top three credible models remain some kind of combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects... yeah, sure even with some kind of attempted hybridization of the top three models, there is still going to be probability assignments based on whatever time frame that we might be looking at and then short-term BTC price movements can mess up momentum or even a kind of need to shift the curves - so with all kinds of short-term happenings such as momentum, happenings in the shitcoin space, various bearish or bullish news, pulling of hashpower or increases to hash power or other factors, these could well have some affects on short term momentum in one direction or another, but still the overall underlying pressures involving factors of the three above listed models are likely to continue to have pulling effects on the BTC price that surely continue to cause BTC to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside (aka number go up (NGU) technologies)....

Yes, longer term is a much different story. The context was short-term analysis and get-rich-quick noobs.
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September 29, 2021, 12:30:45 AM


Sirazimuth those morning glory plants are illegal in Texas and Australia because they can be a major weed problem not because of the LSA they contain. Nice to see the two weeds

.....


Interesting..  I did not know that. 
All I know is, I far prefer them to the insidious thug invasive Japanese Knotweed, which I have been trying to eradicate from my property
since I bought this place in 2007. I have made progress, but its a never ending battle.

...The blue color of those flowers is is insanely pleasing.
Indeed...was trying for the Mission of Burma album cover, but fell far short in # of blooms...




......
No doubt living in a green (damp) part of the world you will be checking your weeds twice daily for botrytis AKA bud rot and harvesting the lot at first sign of it.
.....


You got that right my friend. Like you said, once you see it, it spreads like wild fire and no stopping it short of instant harvest. I tried amputating affected branches but no help.
It hit me really hard 2 years ago. I always dread the rainstorms in late Sept early October.
Last year not so bad. 
I believe certain strains are very susceptible. The clone I grew this year from last years crop has just got hit with it. Whereas my other new fangled strains grown from seed
seem to be okay. Apparently they have a better resistance to it.


Never a dull day with Bitcoin or the WO.


 ....and I just noticed some new flamenings amongst our beloved wo bro community... yup, never a dull moment....its why I love this place...
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September 29, 2021, 12:40:49 AM
Merited by vapourminer (2), BobLawblaw (2)

OT: Say hello to Amazon's next spy device 2.0:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/28/22697244/amazon-astro-home-robot-hands-on-features-price

Instead of merely listening in on your conversation like Echo, it'll follow you around from room to room and both listen and record video! And case your house! Oh joy!
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September 29, 2021, 12:42:20 AM


HA!! TAKE THAT LAS PALMAS!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


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September 29, 2021, 12:49:58 AM



The Dude back out of forced sleep…. First thing, check the WO

Or almost first thing, maybe after 2,3 calls and a good meal, sober 16hours I think

Was hungry AF

You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!" Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 29, 2021, 01:01:26 AM


Explanation
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September 29, 2021, 01:10:07 AM


When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:

The only question is how long until the republicans cave?
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September 29, 2021, 01:19:46 AM
Merited by Richy_T (1)


When the shit is going to hit the ceiling, don't lower the shit, but raise the ceiling:

The only question is how long until the republicans cave?

It's all just clown show political theater.

They'll cave precisely as agreed, likely on Oct. 18th. Gotta have those optics.

Both the $3.5T spending bill and the debt ceiling raise will get shoved through.

Wouldn't matter who was in office either.
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September 29, 2021, 01:25:38 AM

.....
You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!" Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


...and I thought I had a weird sense of humor....
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September 29, 2021, 01:28:04 AM

The 'investor' class here might argue that it ain't so and mining reacts to price and not vice versa, but bitcoin network IS based on mining, so I would respectfully disagree with such opinions. Who knows, maybe the price is sniffing out this possibility.

I don't see your point in trying to denigrate the "investor class" by suggesting that they might not know what they are talking about, especially when you seem to be stating a wrong theory.  You believe that miners, such as philip, know what moves the direction of the BTC price better merely because he happens to be a miner and merely because he also seems to subscribe to such nonsense thoughts that the miners are pushing BTC's price direction?

Sure, in the end, you can believe what you want, even if it hardly makes any sense... and I am not even going to proclaim that have no influence on price, but suggesting that they are driving the price seems like nearly pure pie in the sky thinking... because they are ONLY like one in 7 effects.. so perhaps 1/7 effect.. or maybe 1/3 effects could be reasonable rather than asserting that they have some kind of majority influence or some other simplified nonsense like that.  

with no new miners there will be no significant bitcoin price appreciation (let's make it a proclamation #1).

Sounds like nonsense to me.   Yes, I understand that you would like to roll your own price prediction models, no matter how fantastical they might be.

Accordingly, if we are looking at medium to longer term, and let's say four-year cycles, then our currently top three credible models remain some kind of combination of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects... yeah, sure even with some kind of attempted hybridization of the top three models, there is still going to be probability assignments based on whatever time frame that we might be looking at and then short-term BTC price movements can mess up momentum or even a kind of need to shift the curves - so with all kinds of short-term happenings such as momentum, happenings in the shitcoin space, various bearish or bullish news, pulling of hashpower or increases to hash power or other factors, these could well have some affects on short term momentum in one direction or another, but still the overall underlying pressures involving factors of the three above listed models are likely to continue to have pulling effects on the BTC price that surely continue to cause BTC to be a great asymmetric bet to the upside (aka number go up (NGU) technologies)....

Yes, longer term is a much different story. The context was short-term analysis and get-rich-quick noobs.

If you cannot recall correctly, we were talking long .  Torque was poo-pooing stock-to-flow and suggesting that newbies are too reliant upon S2F being 100% correct.

Furthermore, many times we are mixing our short-medium-long term proclamations, so in that regard, if you had not noticed, there are a lot of regulars in this thread who spend a lot of time both downplaying short-term BTC price movements and a lot of the seeming messiness that comes within a lot of 4-year cycles, and even when longer term members try to stay focus on the long term, there can be a lot of additional confusion regarding at what stage of any 4-year cycle that we might be and even reasonable questioning whether the 4-year cycle still applies... So, even when there might be a lot of short-term noise going on, even concerns that bitcoin might be dead for real (or forever) this time, it really does not seem to hurt a whole hell of a lot to be both attempting to identify the existence of longer term theories and attempting to highlight factual circumstances that help us with figuring out our current location in such cycle, if that is even identifiable.

.....
You way of saying : "I snatched a bag of cocaine into my rectum through an airport and it leaked so I needed hospitalization from the OD!" Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


...and I thought I had a weird sense of humor....

And, I did not know that anyone could actually learn something from Save the RF..

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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September 29, 2021, 01:51:09 AM

OT: Say hello to Amazon's next spy device 2.0:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/28/22697244/amazon-astro-home-robot-hands-on-features-price

Instead of merely listening in on your conversation like Echo, it'll follow you around from room to room and both listen and record video! And case your house! Oh joy!

If you live alone and are old maybe its okay ✅
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September 29, 2021, 02:01:27 AM


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September 29, 2021, 02:50:58 AM
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OT: Say hello to Amazon's next spy device 2.0:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/9/28/22697244/amazon-astro-home-robot-hands-on-features-price

Instead of merely listening in on your conversation like Echo, it'll follow you around from room to room and both listen and record video! And case your house! Oh joy!

If you live alone and are old maybe its okay ✅

"Astro, remind me who I am".
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September 29, 2021, 03:01:37 AM


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September 29, 2021, 03:16:16 AM


It's just that it seems so unlike this thread, the only thread that you can discuss important things in without snowflakes interfering.
And now it seems to be going the way of other threads.
Nothing wrong with discussing it in another thread, but I think it was wrong "banning" the discussion in this thread.
Bob is deleting my posts anyway so I'll just have to post whatever I might have to say on the subject here regardless.

Make a thread yourself, point out the points you wanna discuss... Same as Bob does easy as that, people will chose which chain they follow and use...

But GL with that one, Bob is kinda populair  Cheesy

Well, since my point is that there shouldn't be another thread, that would kind of defeat the purpose.
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