I have been doing a little meta analysis of on chain data, and thinking through some things that I think we are currently watching unfold. Because I love you as my brothers I thought I would share my thoughts here. Perhaps you can tell me if you think I am crazy.
Let's just run some logic together... follow along if you will:
1. What are the chances that there are multiple entities with 10+ figures in USD they want to move into Bitcoin. In other words people who want to build a billion dollar position. ANYWHERE in the world. ANY sort of customer. Rich individuals, companies, endowments, family offices, hedge funds, countries, central banks. The answer to the above question is not "IF", rather it is "Yes, of course. How Many?" I think at this point it is inevitable. Microstategy was unique as they did it before almost anyone else (in the herd). So they could do it somewhat openly. But not too much so. Same with Tesla.
2. How will these entities be buying their bitcoin. Logging on to TradeOgre and buying their bitcoin there? Of course not. They will be buying privately from whales directly, or by using some sort of "institutional grade" broker. Some will buy via Greyscale, but not all. They will be working with the trading desks at the major exchanges.
3. How long will they spend buying their bitcoin?I would suggest they would spend weeks, at least, acquiring such a position. Even trading over the counter they will have an effect on the market. And they do not want to make too big waves while they do it. But on the other hand many probably believe the longer they wait, the better their entry price will be. Many, but certainly not all.
3. Are there any of the above entities that are thinking they should wait for the next bear market?I think absolutely, yes. But most of these pros with a conservative approach are also going to hedge those bets by DCA-ing in at least somewhat in case they are wrong. And they ARE wrong in my humble opinion.
4.What would happen to dealer stock as this is going on?This is a deeper question than at first glance. Obviously most of this sort of trading is not happening ON a retail exchange. But big whales that keep a liquid amount of bitcoin on an exchange are being reached out to by these trading desks, and the trades are happening in the dark. Then that stock of BTC will be pulled out of the liquid addresses and sent to cold storage. These bitcoin could also change hands on a ledger at the exchange, but simply remain in the cold wallet addresses of these exchanges. This means that not only would stocks at the exchanges be shrinking visibly, which they ARE, but they would also invisibly be becoming more frozen. Exchange X may have a cold wallet with 10,000 BTC in it, and 9000 of them were "for sale". But in this case we see the first number declining measurably, but the SECOND number would ALSO decline causing an invisible drop in the available float. Bittrex is still holding that billion dollars worth of BTC, but it is no longer for sale.
5. Would these entities be incentivized to manipulate the prices on retail exchanges during the time they are trading?Yes. I do not think they all would do this. I doubt Microstrategy did it. And El Salvador is not buying so much that it is worth their effort and money. But people planning on taking a multi-billion dollar position? They would HAVE to consider setting up traders to manipulate the prices on the retail exchanges while the deals are being done. Inversely, the sellers would be incentivized to support the price as they sell their large lots. Since retail can be moved with TINY volume I just do not see how this is not happening. But I do not hink it can happen forever... Eventually the market will become so strong that it cannot be moved that easily any more. When? No clue.
6. What sort of things would we see if the above were happening?Barts, and flash crashes/flash recoveries. Sound familiar?
7. But what about all the normal, smaller traders?They are still here. And I would expect there is a range of them. People interested in buying a whole BTC to people wanting to ship 10s of millions in. Many of these smaller fish will be the noise floor on the retail exchanges. As you get into larger positions you will see a more savvy trader, and some may begin to look for dark pools. But most will still be trading on the exchange. They will set orders that catch the flash crashes, as well as bots that buy (or sell) aggressively under certain circumstances.
8. What about the futures markets (and leverage junkies)?Good question. These are the cost of a truly free market. And I think leverage trading and futures can be seen influencing the markets in the form of BART type actions as well as bigger moves at expiry. Some smart degens are probably getting rich picking up gold nuggets in front of the biggest steam roller in history. But as we all know... when the corn decides to move, it can do so with extreme alacrity. Some will get murdered by the markets.
In conclusion:Perhaps we are on the brink of another multi year bear. Perhaps we will see another 80% drop. We DID just live through a 50% one. But at SOME point this cannot continue. Because at SOME point these billionaires lining up to get into the game are going to overcome what's left to sell. Yes. Everyone has a price. And I would not be surprised if some early large investors decide to divest as we see the rocket going up. Of course they will. Maybe even some who moved in this year. When they can sell half their stake and be freerolling with the same money they initially invested they will do this. But Michael Saylor has it right. It is going to go up forever. There is coming a point where selling for anything other that the need to spend will make absolutely no sense at all. Borrow against it, or sell little bits for the big things. But otherwise why would you ever let go? It will be called a ponzi, again and again and again. Because this is the archetypal, mathematical event that ponzi schemes all pretended to be.
Already the signs of this thing getting out of control are starting to appear. These flash recoveries... the constant upward pressure. News after news after news of bank after firm, after bank integrating it. All the while the payment network is being developed in parallel to the already established store of value asset. Saylor is right that Bitcoin does not challenge the USD. The lightning network does.
Thing is people do not realize yet that the lightning network IS Bitcoin. But they will.
Over time the base layer is going to get very crystalized. We already see it. Above as I describe bitcoin is cold storage at X exchange being "frozen solid" surreptitiously as an investor buys it, but lets the exchange continue to custody it. As it stops moving on the base layer it becomes increasingly valuable. A lot of people doubt this. But like so many other aspects of bitcoin it does not make sense when measured by the standards of the day. It slows down because the hands holding it are ever stronger.
There will always be a float that is being used to transact by the whole world. But that percentage of the total will be ever decreasing. Because the incentive to HOLD it is never going away.
In my opinion the above things are simply a mathematical certainty.
And the math is going to blow our pants off.
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