Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[philipma1957]

$63k in one two hours

Hope chart buddy accepts your proposal but here we are seeing pump for ants  

Make $70k this time as you previous words have been approved and now the pump is for us

Los Angeles near Hollywood Blvd.

https://www.hotels.club/hotel/jw-marriott-los-angeles-l-a-live/

Thanks for the heads up to the location and providing the location for this whitepaper publication on the board.The members are also learning tricks to tell the location and i think you need to be more pro active on this location finder .

Hey you are starving buddy he is awaiting another sandwich 🥪 do not interrupt his
meal time he is about to do a huge lift.

Your sandwich has now been digested and given boost to buddy and now he's having the the pump tonic to lift up us from $60k range.Could you please also provide $70k tablets to him as an supplement to support the heavy lifts easily?

Cannot close the eyes,
Bitcoin exploding right now.
Reaper mode is on.

The bitcoin bull is ready to knock all who comes in the way once again and the to fuck out the haters with green dildos.You have to add on more blood doors within couple of hours until the demon knock at $70k door . Observing the charts only while writing this post also.

yes I can. I just ordered a new supply of Iodine. works wonders for my asthma. Lets me breath freely.

Just a drop or two in a nice glass of water and boom buddy will have all the fresh breath and wind he needs to lift us up and over that 70k mark.😊

Okay been giving buddy his lugol’s iodine solution to give him plenty of oxygen. seems to work so far new Ath

looking for the image above to be reworked to 68k.

link for any and all asthmatics

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B001AEFM9Y/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o01_s00?


works for me and I guess for buddy .

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[hisslyness]

Hey Rainforest, how is that DGB working out for you?

on track!.. another $11,999.994459 and he is there!.. So so close!.. not too much longer....

[JayJuanGee]

I think the chance is likely we see it fail late in this "cycle", which is really fairly soon...

Salty cow.





Salty cows everywhere.

 

@JJG - Note that @cAPSLOCK talks about S2F likely failing late in this cycle, but he doesn't specify if it will fail on the downity or the uppity.

Some peep was not pee-pared to this plot twist? Perhaps? Perhaps? 

I think there is a CHANCE it fails in this cycle.  And I think it breaks to the upside. 

But I think there is probably a greater chance it fails in a later cycle.  But it does fail eventually... it has to.  I am pretty sure the creator of it says that as well.

Wanting to add this.  The creator of the Bitcoin S2F model ALSO has a belief that his model will break to the upside.  He does not SAY that very often in interviews, or writing.  Perhaps that is because he does not want to live through the lambasting that will come if he is wrong.  But his actions give his position away...

His "cross asset" model is there to pick up the debris when his pure Bitcoin S2F model gets wrecked.  So you can see which way HE is hedging his predictions very clearly if you look.

What else is new?  Since 2010, there have been quite a few folks who have already suggested BTC's exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles, and the stock to flow model does not really account for demand that is contained within the exponential s-curve adoption presumptions in any kind of meaningful way - except perhaps there could be some kinds of built in aspects of S2F that presumes ongoing demand or holds demand as a kind of constant within the model..... in other words, we already know about these kinds of ongoing UPpity price pressures while the S2F model can be used as a framework until it is not.. so maybe we are saying similar things with some semantical differences regarding the breaking of the model (which I have been ongoingly critical of PlanB for such terminology too) and in the meantime.....  I am NOT going to retract any assertion to lump you in as a salty cow, and perhaps even an old one for your BTC price prediction model rolling inclinations, as already stated. #nohomo


 

[edited out]

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

Aka - part of the price dynamics of being in noman's land too.

It could also end up being that the top of noman's land ends up establishing its lil selfie  more in the $100k or higher area rather than my whimpy $80k assertion.. even though it remains somewhat unrealistic to expect NOT running into some resistance prior to reaching 6 digits.....   I do strive to be somewhat conservative as much as feasible in terms of still sticking with $80k...... but let's see how the next few days (and maybe even the whole of this week) play(s) out...  #justsaying

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

Well that is a way of looking at it.  Personally I say  teasing really does make people anticipate explosive finishes.

How about we slowly go to 70k Dec 31 and float around  the 70-90 range for most of Jan-June. Then explode past 300k by aug 1

This works for me.

Bitcoin no doesn't work like that.

We do not get gradual upswings in prices.... so your scenario comes off as pie in the sky.. maybe generous if even having something like a 10% chance of happening as you outlined it.

....  I think there is a strong possibility this is the phase the market is in right now, we've seen it before in previous bull runs right before some epic rises on thin volume

... I tend to think of it as the calm before the storm of the manic mark-up phase, you see it in other commodity markets also, grains, softs especially and local weekly cattle auction rings all share the same characteristics, also great studies in human psychology of markets

... basically the market is running out of sellers at these prices as the sellers now are expecting/demanding higher prices for their goods .... the buyers are there at the ring with cash in their pockets waiting for cheapest prices but they can see pretty much how many cows are left in the pens, the grass is going crazy in the paddocks back home but the sellers are in solidarity sitting on their hands saying NUP .... there's a quiet, tension in the atmospehere as the Mexican standoff goes through it's dance

... then the first buyer loses his nerve and puts in a big bid well above market, bang, that is the starting gun for the mark-up phase

... all the bids start coming in higher and higher but only a few get filled, fomo kicks, still no volume, the sellers are going to wait for the new price level to establish when it's in new territory

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

I know what you mean....but the DISTANCE is typically not being measured in % (as your example illustrates).
The numerical distance between 650000 and 65000 (be it miles or mm) is 585000 "units", while the distance between 650 and 65 is 585 units.
Naturally, 585000 is exactly 100 times bigger "distance". With 585 miles driven you won't even cross the TX border going north from here, but with "driving" 585000 miles you would circumnavigate the globe more than twenty times.

I know that i sound boring and I get the gist of your idea, but i just can't agree that these two series of numbers are even remotely similar, sorry.

As usually you make little sense Biodom.

Of course, there is some need for the whole bitcoin to be larger (probably not quite 100x larger) in order to move 100x higher value.... within exponential effects are network effects.. so there is a certain amount of magnification that occurs in networks whether we are talking about the impacts of value transfers or other transactions on the network or the implications of value taken off the network and not being used for liquidation purposes.

The 64k question (lol look what I did there?) is how far will the fomo send it?  There are two things that are "different this time".

1. I think there will be more fomo than we have ever seen by a LOT.  
2. The distance between 65 and 650 is quite different, and yet exactly the same as between 65,000 and 650,000.  That's where the really chewy part comes in I think...
I have no idea.

The difference between 65/650 and 65k/650k is not in the ratio itself.
It is in the ratio between the numbers involved and the total amount of fiat in the world.

Q. Got it, daddy! So, is the whole amount of fiat in the world 1000x as much as it was when the corn was at 65?
A. Not yet, son, but they're working hard at it.

(Fuckin' legend!)

EDIT: I think @Biodom was meaning much the same thing in his latest post.

Gotta see some kind of humor in the above post, even if each of us are likely framing the matter differently.   

Well that is a way of looking at it.  Personally I say  teasing really does make people anticipate explosive finishes.

How about we slowly go to 70k Dec 31 and float around  the 70-90 range for most of Jan-June. Then explode past 300k by aug 1

This works for me.

You just want to mine more before it goes up don'cha?

Personally, I believe that philip is quasi-delusional, and he seems to maintain some anchoring of his imagination by misconceptionings that king daddy is limited by hashening powers.., or some kind of similar nonsense that is ONLY loosely connected to reality.... but hey, it's a free country (or might we say thread?... WO country?  similar to bat country?).. last time I checked, which means that any of us can anchor upon whatever variations of our BTC price theories that we imagine to be the most plausible.

New poll, please

In reaching a new ATH today (so far $67,804 as I type this post - and breaking our October 20 ATH of $67,017) maybe several of us can finally proclaim that we got a poll correct.. whether luck or not with those 50/50 random odds.. it feels good, man.

[HI-TEC99]

[Hueristic]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98XL03W9CN4

[Biodom]

who  cares... @JJG?
nobody

if you think that going from 65 to 650 is the same as going from 65000 to 650000, I beg to differ.
It ain't..that is NOT to say that it cannot, it's just a completely different story.
At 650k, bitcoin is (will be) geopolitical.
Right now, it still looks like a very large cap stock (in size).
At 13.65 trillions (eq to 650K price), it would be large countries "playground".

[JayJuanGee]

The history of the corn.  Gaze upon the 2017 volume vs today...  where on this graph are we???




Zoom in on the 2 year period of the greatest global economic crisis in our lifetimes.




Damn.

I am going to guess.

We are at the low sloping part that is before the exponential part?

Did I win anything?

Wait.

Are you saying that volume fluctuated more in 2017 than it is doing right now, so therefore there might be some reason to worry.

Let's search for a reason to worry.

Great idea.

 

I don't want to have to worry.

 

Congrats fellow WOs hodlers!!

Faith alone is the only way to save yourself from the ratrace and those who wish to enslave you..
Faith in BTC..

Some people really do think like that... I understand.

You just want to mine more before it goes up don'cha?

duh I just spent 100k expanding the mine what do you think 🤔..

We want more good months of mining.

the hardest part of mining is dca the gear and don’t over buy.

if we pump and stagger now (nov-dec) i fucked up.

if we rise slowly upwards for months on end I whale.

time will tell.

Say it isn't so philip.

Don't say that you are projecting BTC prices to stay down.. and that is why you made the purchasing decisions that you made.. In other words, sounds as if you are both betting against bitcoin and also betting against bitcoin doing what it usually does.. which is outrageous volatility.  One of the most inevitable things in bitcoin remains volatility, and sure such volatility does not necessarily need to happen to the UPside, even if it has a tendency to happen towards the UPside, especially if you understand and appreciate the various BTC price prediction models including the fact that it seems quite likely that we have not yet had a blow off top for this cycle.. which sure could happen this month or it may well drag out longer than this month and as late as the 3rd quarter of 2022.. blow off tops are  not gradual events... last time I checked.

Perhaps he can buy some off proudhon.

Who has the highest BTC balance?  Not me.  I've got more than 1000 but less than 4000.

I've got > 2000 and < 5000.  Last year when I started I remember thinking "I hope one day to have 200".  On then on the way down from $32 I kept scooping them up with my biggest haul coming in at $2.4x after the last $2.00 bounce.  I keep saying to myself, "I've got enough", and I think I've got plenty, but it'd sure be nice to have 10,000...

But maybe proudhon's not selling.

...

As bearish as I am and remain, I've still got a nice stash of bitcoins in offline storage that intend to keep forever, even though recent price movements have been tempting me to sell.

Even just hanging onto 1,000 BTC might put proudhon close to fuck you status, even using the 208-week moving average.. which would be around $17,500.. and that would be a mere $17.5 million... almost even close enough for Biodom's entry-level fuck you status which seems to be a wee bit larger than average...

But not sure whether we could presume such a peddly lil stash... we could average between the top and the bottom.. and perhaps get at something like 3k BTC, no?  That would be $52.5 million, even using the 208-week moving average.. surely enough to reach Biodom's entry-level fuck you status..

Maybe no need to speculate any kind of exactness of such stash.. but just go through questions about whether some of those coins were shaken out along the way... nothing like going to the horse's mouth itself to get some confirmations, right?  Likely the horse's mouth is not going to have any problemas paying fillippone when he loses the BTC prices at $170k gift to filippone. don't drown while surfing, donkey-breath... you are going to have to pay up... either this cycle or perhaps in the next cycle.. but not shabby chances that you will have to pay up this cycle.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aysg76]

So i am little bit late to the NEW ATH PARTY but here we go at last and having some pump vibes at last and laughing at the previous post who said it will not be able to rise above this level or that level .

This is just the boost to engine and rocket is going to take off guys and $70k is incoming soon.Set the timer on your clocks and when you see bears running back to the jungles then we have hit that.

But to all those who says we have missed the boat phrase always there is one thing which i wanted to share with you all.



You are not late but just being foolish to wait on the stop and seeing the train/bus leaving without getting on it.So you see this is not new thing but waiting too much will eventually lead you to miss the boat.

[cAPSLOCK]

Trains?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KP9PNSUME4

[cAPSLOCK]

The history of the corn.  Gaze upon the 2017 volume vs today...  where on this graph are we???




Zoom in on the 2 year period of the greatest global economic crisis in our lifetimes.




Damn.

I am going to guess.

We are at the low sloping part that is before the exponential part?

Did I win anything?

Wait.

Are you saying that volume fluctuated more in 2017 than it is doing right now, so therefore there might be some reason to worry.

Let's search for a reason to worry.

Great idea.

 

I don't want to have to worry.

 

Good guess.. And I don't know the answer. It could do anything... But it might just fulfill the prophecy that was made so long ago, and paint something that look like 2014.  At this point that's the only "echo" it can do.  It ain't going to look like 2017.

Well I take that back, I guess... if it went up a whole lot more than most of us think, from here, then the previous high might just look like a blip.  But that seems kind of unlikely.  And it would still be kinda new. So it boils done to super cycle, regular epoch, or black swan.

And I second the suggestion you made to yourself not to worry.  This would be a crazy time to worry.  We got nothing but good news around this corner, lol...  I will honestly be surprised if this one doesn't just come up and hit us in the mouth.  (in the best way)

[Paashaas]

Goodmorning gentlemen, a new all-time high.

$68,300!

[HI-TEC99]

proudhon = rich

Maybe no need to speculate any kind of exactness of such stash.. but just go through questions about whether some of those coins were shaken out along the way... nothing like going to the horse's mouth itself to get some confirmations, right?  

Maybe proudhon's sold when he starts posting bear talk. Then maybe he buys back in after he's brought the price down.

[HI-TEC99]

Goodmorning gentlemen, a new all-time high.

$68,300!

$68,400!

$68,550!

[lightfoot]

Moar helicopters....

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[rdbase]

WO ATH soon! I want to see who will be the first to post on that page.
They'll deserve a metal!  medal!

FTFY rdbase.

Ofc Ofc!

Bitcoin is pumping up and it is looking like it going for that run up to $100k by the end of the year.

Wait until it reaches $69k (not too long now!) then we will see alot of the strangest meme on this thread coming out of the woodwork.

[jojo69]

Moar helicopters....