Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

Lightning Node Stuff: Slow day with high fee activity leading to only being able to open a couple channels. Got LOOP re-established last night with high fees and no balancing. Gonna let the channel sit as is, and see how she works out long-term.

As for the BOS List entry, I think I found my node on the list, because I paid the 10k sat fee subscription for a month. Now that the subscription has run out, I no longer have the BOS flair on amboss.space.

Nice scam.

Hrm...  That's weird.  I have never paid them, and I have had the little badge, but it is also gone right now.  The Terminal list badge is still there for us both.  I think this is not about the payment, but something else.

Yeah.. Southxchange is the #1 on the BOS list and also not on there...  I think it comes back.

[cAPSLOCK]

At this moment in the recent past we see furious buying step in... let's see...
 

The money on the exchanges is waiting for this dips, and then buying into them.

Well.  Sorry for jinxing us!

[marcus_of_augustus]

Biden's nominee for Comptroller of the Currency
https://mobile.twitter.com/bidennoms/status/1458180110872457216

Biden nominee Saule Omarova saying the quiet part out loud. On the oil, coal and gas industries:

"We want them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate change."

... Comptroller of Currency wants major industries to go bankrupt, that should be good for the dollar

.... "Socialism comes in through the ballot box, but only leaves through bloodshed ... " it's nothing new peeps

 Looks Chinese, speaks with a Russian accent and she's nominated for what now?

... hey she's highly qualified for any position in this administration, PhD thesis title "Omarova graduated from Moscow State University in 1989 on the Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship.[8][9] Her thesis from MSU is titled Karl Marx's Economic Analysis and the Theory of Revolution in The Capital"

... she's got communist pedigree perfection.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

I seriously consider buying more around 20,000 dollar.

Sure, if you had a time machine you could do that.

That aged well  

If you meant that sarcastically; a 5K dump is not a 50K dump.

But sure, I hope you and everyone else here for that matter, get more BTC, whatever the means. As long as it isn't immoral, such as changing protocol rules with "old coins".

[eddie13]

All bitcoins that are not moved for a certain period of time (20, 50, or 100 years) should be presumed lost and then recycled through the usual mining process. I'm not sure if that can be achieved through a soft fork.

FUCK YOU WITH A RUSTY PIPE FOR SUGGESTING SUCH GARBAGE.

but dude it is pretty much certain to get pushed in 2049 to 2069 time range.

and I can tell you human nature it will happen.

nope..
pretty stupid idea..

[Biodom]

How NOT to be an "enterpreneur":

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/10/kid-siblings-earned-160k-mining-cryptocurrency-like-bitcoin-ether.html

nice kids, have revenue of 160K, but look at those expenses:

~$250-300K in 3090ies
~$75-100K in 3070ti
~120-240K in "specialized bitcoin mining machines (which go typically for $5k for older, 10K for newer).

Total outlays: could be as much as $540K..revenue $160K so far. Basically, daddy is financing it.

Oh, my. What would they learn? Borrow and lose money?
I know that kids are probably happy, but doesn't it show the WHOLE state of affairs in the world?
Borrow and then LOSE.

[Richy_T]

Good news not moving the price much. Like CEO of Apple invested in Crypto or Elon Musk selling 20 BN of his stocks for Bitcoin. But one small unconfirmed FUD and we see a massive dump. This market is so shaky.

When the price moves, it tends to leave the order book a bit flat behind it. A well executed FUD dump like this can knock things back down pretty easily.

[Biodom]

All bitcoins that are not moved for a certain period of time (20, 50, or 100 years) should be presumed lost and then recycled through the usual mining process. I'm not sure if that can be achieved through a soft fork.

FUCK YOU WITH A RUSTY PIPE FOR SUGGESTING SUCH GARBAGE.

but dude it is pretty much certain to get pushed in 2049 to 2069 time range.

and I can tell you human nature it will happen.

nope..
pretty stupid idea..

One thing for sure..if you have bitcoin with a bank and don't touch it for 5 years, it is as good as gone.
They have a 5 year account inactivity feature.
I had one account I forgot about forfeited like that, not that I cared much, it had some very small amounts there, but this is the rule they use.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

All bitcoins that are not moved for a certain period of time (20, 50, or 100 years) should be presumed lost and then recycled through the usual mining process. I'm not sure if that can be achieved through a soft fork.

FUCK YOU WITH A RUSTY PIPE FOR SUGGESTING SUCH GARBAGE.

but dude it is pretty much certain to get pushed in 2049 to 2069 time range.

and I can tell you human nature it will happen.

nope..
pretty stupid idea..

One thing for sure..if you have bitcoin with a bank and don't touch it for 5 years, it is as good as gone.
They have this 5 year account inactivity feature.
I had one account I forgot about forfeited like that, not that I cared much, it had some very small amounts there, but this is the rule they use.

Like I said I was born in 1957 and will almost certainly be dead by 2069 as 112 is not going to happen.

But if BTC is to wind out and whale and be 1 or 2 or 3 million even 10,000,000  and there are 2,000,000 in Frozen coins they will be moved or set back into circulation.

As  1,000,000 x 2,000,000 = 2,000,000,000,000 / 2 trillion to and 10 million x 2 mill = 20 trillion in coins.

No way is that staying idle for all time. 

The pressure put on them going back to recirculate will be huge. The power grid and gear used at that time will need to be fed.

Not a worry for this in 2021 or 2029 or 2039 or 2049 but by 2059 yeah if the world and btc have survived they will be big pressure for that event.

To those that disagree fine hope you live to see it not happen and come to my grave and laugh at me.

[marcus_of_augustus]

To those that disagree fine hope you live to see it not happen and come to my grave and laugh at me.

... I already described why it will never happen and is a stupid idea that will break higher layers and put the entire protocol at risk,

... yet, you relent, we can just tell you that you're fucking idiot and laugh at you while you are alive!

[philipma1957]

To those that disagree fine hope you live to see it not happen and come to my grave and laugh at me.

... I already described why it will never happen and is a stupid idea that will break higher layers and put the entire protocol at risk,

... yet, you relent, we can just tell you that you're fucking idiot and laugh at you while you are alive!

That my friend is so naive I am laughing at you right now. Thanks for the smile.

Ha protocol vs 20 or 30 trill worth of coin just sitting .  They will force each and every wallet to show control via a small withdrawal or declare it abandoned.

Maybe the push back by developers would be a simple no like you think.  I won't live long enough to find this out.

[Syke]

The moment a single UTXO is spent without having a proper signature is the moment Bitcoin becomes a SHITCOIN. My cold wallets are in my control, and no miner can ever detect whether they are "lost" or not.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Good news not moving the price much. Like CEO of Apple invested in Crypto or Elon Musk selling 20 BN of his stocks for Bitcoin. But one small unconfirmed FUD and we see a massive dump. This market is so shaky.

When the price moves, it tends to leave the order book a bit flat behind it. A well executed FUD dump like this can knock things back down pretty easily.

When did E. Musk say he was putting the billions in BTC?

[cAPSLOCK]

To those that disagree fine hope you live to see it not happen and come to my grave and laugh at me.

... I already described why it will never happen and is a stupid idea that will break higher layers and put the entire protocol at risk,

... yet, you relent, we can just tell you that you're fucking idiot and laugh at you while you are alive!

That my friend is so naive I am laughing at you right now. Thanks for the smile.

Ha protocol vs 20 or 30 trill worth of coin just sitting .  They will force each and every wallet to show control via a small withdrawal or declare it abandoned.

Maybe the push back by developers would be a simple no like you think.  I won't live long enough to find this out.

The developers do not decide the monetary policy of Bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

How are BTC related matters feeling now, Raja_MBZ?  

Still expecting a correction down to the 200-week moving average within the next year?  

Yeah, of course.

However, the punk that I once sold for 4-figure is now worth 7-figure. Sucks TBH.

You are going to win a lot of friends by responding by bringing up off-topic nonsense.    

We are talking about BTC here, no?  

Apparently you heard about BTC, but you value your wealth too much in dollars in order to even be able to appreciate how to use bitcoin as a long-term strategy.

Admit it.  You were wrong about at least: 1) believing that we were entering a bear market in May/June and 2) failing/refusing to buy back some or all of your BTC (assuming you even sold at $55k as you claimed to have done) (and assuming that you might have done the right thing to sell some portion of your BTC in the first place based on such a gamble)... so for sure you could have bought back some or all of your sold BTC when the BTC price had dipped 56%.

Maybe you at least have become another example of how nocoiners behave in trying to rationalize their ongoing behaviors including their unwillingness to invest in bitcoin in the long term and how their position (financially and psychologically) becomes even worse when they get stubborn about having had put their lil selfies into a nocoiner status and/or their desire to be correct about whatever actions they took to sell too much BTC too soon (or failure/refusal to buy back).

I seriously consider buying more around 20,000 dollar.

That's what she said.

I probably am gonna get that punk back at 5-figure. Should be possible once BTC touches 200-week moving average lol

Historically, bitcoin has reached 200-week moving average during bear markets (and except for in March 2020 - 200-week moving average was met), so a lot of opportunity costs to be waiting for the 200-week moving average to be met along the way, especially since it seems that we have been in a bull market since about April 2019 and we have not yet left that bull market (even if there might have been some questionable periods along the way, including the March 2020 crash and including the May/June/July 56% correction which felt somewhat extremes).

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

So for example, in March 2020 the last time that the BTC price met the 200-week moving average was around a pretty major event, and the 200-week moving average around that time was about $5,300.

Around May/June 2021 when you sold your bitcoin for $55k, the 200-week moving average was at $12k (so it was more than double of its March 2020 level)... Currently (merely 5 months later), the 200-week moving average is more than $17k (about 42% higher), and with BTC spot prices currently 3x to 4x higher than the 200-week moving average, the 200-week MA continues to be moving up relatively steeply, so you might not even be able to get BTC below your $55k selling price by the time that the BTC price drops to meet the 200-week MA.

From my perspective (which surely differs from yours), it does seem that you are going to need a decent amount of luck with your strategy of buying back your BTC sales when the spot price meets the 200-week moving average (even if you had a decently sized cushion) - and it may well not play out, even though I do NOT have doubts that some day the BTC price has good chances of meeting the 200-week moving average at some point in the coming 2-3 years.. but it is not guaranteed in that time-frame, either.. even though at the rate that the 200-week moving average is moving up at this point, in 1-2 years it could well already get above your $55k selling point... and then you have lost out by staying out of BTC for the whole time that you could have been playing long (UP) rather than down scenarios - especially while we are in the midst of what seems to be the largest wealth transfer in human history.  

Edit - 16 hours after initial post - clarified and elaborated on some of the earlier arguments contained therein

[HI-TEC99]

Good news not moving the price much. Like CEO of Apple invested in Crypto or Elon Musk selling 20 BN of his stocks for Bitcoin. But one small unconfirmed FUD and we see a massive dump. This market is so shaky.

When the price moves, it tends to leave the order book a bit flat behind it. A well executed FUD dump like this can knock things back down pretty easily.

When did E. Musk say he was putting the billions in BTC?

I don't know if he said that. I know people were suggesting he invest the billions he gets from selling tesla shares into bitcoin.

https://news.bitcoin.com/elon-musk-twitter-poll-decide-sell-20-billion-tesla-stock-investors-buy-bitcoin/

A number of people suggested that Musk should use the proceeds from selling his TSLA stock to buy BTC. For example, Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor suggested: “If the goal is diversification, an alternate strategy to consider is converting the TSLA balance sheet to a Bitcoin Standard and purchasing $25 billion in BTC.

Syke posted this, but I don't know if Elon Musk actually said it.

Bear in mind other @RelevantElon tweets aren't very serious, such as this one.

https://twitter.com/RelevantElon/status/1454198388447223808

[JayJuanGee]

No drama, but I think we are all waiting for a REAL up of BTC as He should do.

IMHO, He still look like a bit weak, if we are looking for a huge/massive UP by the end of year.  Like on the spring time, where we got only "virgin" new ATH by 1K$ more than the previous, and just fake break out every time.

Obviously I prefer to be wrong, but we are still far away from the 2013 or 2017 moves.

HODL.

Well we could be getting resistance before $100k and also before $250k.. that's true.

We might not even be able to reasonably get above $250k this year or this cycle... but like you imply this cycle does not have to happen before the end of this calendar year.. so one of the advantages of not experiencing outrageous UPwards price movements, it seems a bit harder to justify that we are necessarily going to get a hard correction...

So for example if the BTC price went shooting up to $150k by the end of the year or $250k by the 1st quarter of 2022, $500k by the 2nd quarter of 2022 or $1.5 million by the 3rd quarter of 2022..   Any  of those scenarios might be a bit too much price rise in too short of a period of time.  As you seem to be suggesting (as one of the possible less bearish ways to read your post) is that so, far we do not seem to experiencing any of those blow off top like conditions.. even if we seem to be passing somewhat slowly through noman's land (between $55k and $80k)..  

frustrating?  perhaps?

This kind of stagnation going to shake some weak hands?  perhaps?

Maybe a poll that suggest which one is coming first?   $55k or $80k?    I am not even that presumptive that $80k has to happen first - even if it does seem to be a price location in which we should not be getting too much meaningful resistance.. I might even claim victory early... like $75k - but surely I cannot claim victory at a mere $69k.. that is not quite enough in order to get meaningfully above our longer standing ATH of $64,895 and to use the UPpity fuel to at least get something closer to 25% higher than the relatively longer standing ATH rather than a peasily $69k - which is ONLY about 6.5% at most higher than our previously standing ATH of $64,895.

Outdated poll. How about this?

Would you support a protocol change which would allow "lost coins" to re-enter the ecosystem via mining after a certain period of time? If so, what period of time?

Also, ants are dumping. Ho-hum.

That does not sound like a very appealing poll topic, including that there are not too many bitcoiners who would seriously consider that to be any kind of meaningful problematic issue that needs to be addressed in some other way besides just leaving the coins... maybe we first would need to be convinced that those coins are somehow vulnerable or creating some kind of honey-pot attack vector in order to be motivated to attempt to do something about them.. and if we get over that issue, then the time issue would then come into consideration.. .

All bitcoins that are not moved for a certain period of time (20, 50, or 100 years) should be presumed lost and then recycled through the usual mining process. I'm not sure if that can be achieved through a soft fork.

FUCK YOU WITH A RUSTY PIPE FOR SUGGESTING SUCH GARBAGE.

but dude it is pretty much certain to get pushed in 2049 to 2069 time range.

and I can tell you human nature it will happen.

Oh gawd... another one of philipma's guarantee about how the future is going to play out - this time based on "human nature"

What a world?

What a world?